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Tspgo_com Account Talk
- Thread starter tspgo_com
- Start date
tspgo_com
Active member
09/27/07 ==> 09/28/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(6)72 ==> I(1)57 ==> Pointing to: S/I
09/28/07 ==> 10/01/07 ==> 0 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(5)74 ==> S(6)72 ==> Pointing to I
10/01/07 ==> 10/02/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> F(1)46 ==> F(5)48 ==> Pointing to: F
10/02/07 ==> 10/03/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 ==> Pointing to: I
10/03/07 ==> 10/04/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)57 ==> Pointing to: I
09/28/07 ==> 10/01/07 ==> 0 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(5)74 ==> S(6)72 ==> Pointing to I
10/01/07 ==> 10/02/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> F(1)46 ==> F(5)48 ==> Pointing to: F
10/02/07 ==> 10/03/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 ==> Pointing to: I
10/03/07 ==> 10/04/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)57 ==> Pointing to: I
tspgo_com
Active member
TSPGO HR: What's Ahead..
TSPGO HR: What's Ahead..
IFT (bn) ==> For ==> Neuron 1 ==> Neuron 2 ==> Neuron 3 ==> Neuron 4 ==> Neuron 5
09/28/07 ==> 10/01/07 ==> F(6)75 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/01/07 ==> 10/02/07 ==> 0 ==> G(6) ==> I(1)61 ==> F(1)46 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: F
10/02/07 ==> 10/03/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> G(6) ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/03/07 ==> 10/04/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> S(6)72 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/04/07 ==> 10/05/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
TSPGO HR: What's Ahead..
IFT (bn) ==> For ==> Neuron 1 ==> Neuron 2 ==> Neuron 3 ==> Neuron 4 ==> Neuron 5
09/28/07 ==> 10/01/07 ==> F(6)75 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/01/07 ==> 10/02/07 ==> 0 ==> G(6) ==> I(1)61 ==> F(1)46 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: F
10/02/07 ==> 10/03/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> G(6) ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/03/07 ==> 10/04/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> S(6)72 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/04/07 ==> 10/05/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
tspgo_com
Active member
The Ebbchart (Copied from a Yahoo Group)
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Ebbchart
Credit to whom Credit is due.
There has been a lot of talk about the Ebbchart (Ebbsystem). Many
seems to be in favor and other seems to question the authenticity and
its potential to deliver in the future.
Mr. Ebb's system has worked exceedingly well until now. And if Mr.
Ebb sticks to the rule of remembering that the market is a living,
moving and mutating beast he (or anybody who follows his system) will
do well in the future.
The euphoria we see today comes from the documented outstanding
results. The skepticism shown by others is the product of assigning
attributes and properties to the system that it cannot possess, such
as that it cannot change.
When Mr. Ebb was asked how the system came about, he was very vague
in his response. He should not be blamed for his vague response and
for not "letting the cat out of the bag". If he was expecting to
profit some day from his system the last thing he should do is to
reveal how he arrives to his predictions.
The problem is that he was misunderstood when he said that he looks
at hundreds of patterns to decide switching to the I-Fund or to the
G-Fund. It appears that the statement was misinterpreted to mean that
because it was based on hundreds of patterns there was not room for
changes. When changes began to appear Ms. Skepticism showed up at the
door of many followers. Mr. Ebb would have shut the door on Ms.
Skepticism's face right from the start if he would have said straight
out that because the market is a moving target, adjustment of
the"sight" would be necessary now and then. Instead he started
calling these adjustments and tune ups "contrarian" "lunar influence"
"X-checking", etc. People began to wonder and asking themselves if the
system was really perfect as they were led to believe.
The reality is that the system is not perfect but it is a back tested
"hunch" that have delivered excellent results. If Mr. Ebb' keeps
monitoring his system and making the necessary adjustments to be in
tune with the market, there is no doubt that it will continue to
deliver good results most of the time. The truth is that what is
green-green-green today (go to the I-Fund) most likely it will not
mean the same thing a few months from now. If he can detect the
shifting and make adjustments then it would not matter. However, if
someone is sold on the idea that green-green-green will always be the
same and refuse to believe otherwise then the market will make it a
point to prove him wrong.
Let's says hypothetically that someone has a hunch that on Wednesdays
the I-Fund is up most of the time. He decides to back test his hunch
and he finds that the I-fund has been up 14 out of 20 times (70%) for
a nice gain of 9.51% in the last 9 months. That's an excellent odd
and anybody would take it. When he notices that the I-Fund has been
up only 1 out of 4 times in the last three months he would consider
revising his system because the market might be behaving and changing
direction. What was true for the last nine months might not be true
anymore. It is time to modify the strategy (system). Catastrophe
would be knocking at the door if the system is not changed. Admitting
that it is time to modify the strategy should not be seen as a sign of
weakness ora system failure but as a sign of common sense and wisdom.
Mr. Ebb should not be blamed for not revealing all there is to his
system. Once the system is on everybody's hands the end of his fame,
glory and wealth would have reached the end of the road. Case in
point: Remember the days when someone at Tsptalk was thought be the
best thing that ever happened to tsptalk?. He/she was able to
predict, to the penny, the I-Fund closing price and he/she would post
it before noon. Another TSPtalker was doing the same thing but he
decided that for the good of the many he would post the spreadsheet he
was using to calculate his predictions. As it was well put then, the
"cat was out of the bag". Everybody could calculate the I-Fund value
at any time on any date. Months later these two pioneers that came
with the tool to make lots money using the predictions of the I-Fund
disappeared to "the land of still around but forgotten". Today most
TSPtalker don't even know who they are. Not long ago credits that
should have gone to ChemEng was given to the author of another
spreadsheet that came out after his. The same thing would happen to
Mr. Ebb if he decides to reveal his secret. People would use it and
three months later nobody would remember who Mr. Ebb was.
Ebb will have many followers and they are going to make money
following his system. The reason why many will follow him is because
there are many people out there who don't have the time, the desire
nor the patience to test and back test hunches. They will pay for Mr.
Ebb's services. Mr. Ebb has done an excellent job and he should be
compensated accordingly.
He is legitimate and he will deliver in the future. I will not follow
him because I have my own system but that does not take away that if
he sticks to the rule and remembers that the market is a moving
organism he will continue deliver great results.
My two cents.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Good luck Ebb!. I wish well. You will be missed.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The Ebbchart
Credit to whom Credit is due.
There has been a lot of talk about the Ebbchart (Ebbsystem). Many
seems to be in favor and other seems to question the authenticity and
its potential to deliver in the future.
Mr. Ebb's system has worked exceedingly well until now. And if Mr.
Ebb sticks to the rule of remembering that the market is a living,
moving and mutating beast he (or anybody who follows his system) will
do well in the future.
The euphoria we see today comes from the documented outstanding
results. The skepticism shown by others is the product of assigning
attributes and properties to the system that it cannot possess, such
as that it cannot change.
When Mr. Ebb was asked how the system came about, he was very vague
in his response. He should not be blamed for his vague response and
for not "letting the cat out of the bag". If he was expecting to
profit some day from his system the last thing he should do is to
reveal how he arrives to his predictions.
The problem is that he was misunderstood when he said that he looks
at hundreds of patterns to decide switching to the I-Fund or to the
G-Fund. It appears that the statement was misinterpreted to mean that
because it was based on hundreds of patterns there was not room for
changes. When changes began to appear Ms. Skepticism showed up at the
door of many followers. Mr. Ebb would have shut the door on Ms.
Skepticism's face right from the start if he would have said straight
out that because the market is a moving target, adjustment of
the"sight" would be necessary now and then. Instead he started
calling these adjustments and tune ups "contrarian" "lunar influence"
"X-checking", etc. People began to wonder and asking themselves if the
system was really perfect as they were led to believe.
The reality is that the system is not perfect but it is a back tested
"hunch" that have delivered excellent results. If Mr. Ebb' keeps
monitoring his system and making the necessary adjustments to be in
tune with the market, there is no doubt that it will continue to
deliver good results most of the time. The truth is that what is
green-green-green today (go to the I-Fund) most likely it will not
mean the same thing a few months from now. If he can detect the
shifting and make adjustments then it would not matter. However, if
someone is sold on the idea that green-green-green will always be the
same and refuse to believe otherwise then the market will make it a
point to prove him wrong.
Let's says hypothetically that someone has a hunch that on Wednesdays
the I-Fund is up most of the time. He decides to back test his hunch
and he finds that the I-fund has been up 14 out of 20 times (70%) for
a nice gain of 9.51% in the last 9 months. That's an excellent odd
and anybody would take it. When he notices that the I-Fund has been
up only 1 out of 4 times in the last three months he would consider
revising his system because the market might be behaving and changing
direction. What was true for the last nine months might not be true
anymore. It is time to modify the strategy (system). Catastrophe
would be knocking at the door if the system is not changed. Admitting
that it is time to modify the strategy should not be seen as a sign of
weakness ora system failure but as a sign of common sense and wisdom.
Mr. Ebb should not be blamed for not revealing all there is to his
system. Once the system is on everybody's hands the end of his fame,
glory and wealth would have reached the end of the road. Case in
point: Remember the days when someone at Tsptalk was thought be the
best thing that ever happened to tsptalk?. He/she was able to
predict, to the penny, the I-Fund closing price and he/she would post
it before noon. Another TSPtalker was doing the same thing but he
decided that for the good of the many he would post the spreadsheet he
was using to calculate his predictions. As it was well put then, the
"cat was out of the bag". Everybody could calculate the I-Fund value
at any time on any date. Months later these two pioneers that came
with the tool to make lots money using the predictions of the I-Fund
disappeared to "the land of still around but forgotten". Today most
TSPtalker don't even know who they are. Not long ago credits that
should have gone to ChemEng was given to the author of another
spreadsheet that came out after his. The same thing would happen to
Mr. Ebb if he decides to reveal his secret. People would use it and
three months later nobody would remember who Mr. Ebb was.
Ebb will have many followers and they are going to make money
following his system. The reason why many will follow him is because
there are many people out there who don't have the time, the desire
nor the patience to test and back test hunches. They will pay for Mr.
Ebb's services. Mr. Ebb has done an excellent job and he should be
compensated accordingly.
He is legitimate and he will deliver in the future. I will not follow
him because I have my own system but that does not take away that if
he sticks to the rule and remembers that the market is a moving
organism he will continue deliver great results.
My two cents.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Good luck Ebb!. I wish well. You will be missed.
TSPgo.com,
This is an unrewarded, unpaid and free advertisement.
I agree with you, and I agree with your last paragraph. Regarding Ebbnflow, it states that "He is legitimate and he will deliver in the future. I will not follow him because I have my own system but that does not take away that if he sticks to the rule ad remembers that the market is a moving organism he will continue deliver great results."
I have been following the ebbtracker since its inception. IMO Ebbnflow has always done exactly what you are saying in order to ensure future success. By using the contrarian view, analyzing "lunar influence", and "X-checking", etc., Ebb is showing the necessary flexibility to adapt to changes in the market trends.
By the way, I also read your posts with great interest in order to ascertain where there might be disagreements as to market allocations. Keep it up!
This is an unrewarded, unpaid and free advertisement.
I agree with you, and I agree with your last paragraph. Regarding Ebbnflow, it states that "He is legitimate and he will deliver in the future. I will not follow him because I have my own system but that does not take away that if he sticks to the rule ad remembers that the market is a moving organism he will continue deliver great results."
I have been following the ebbtracker since its inception. IMO Ebbnflow has always done exactly what you are saying in order to ensure future success. By using the contrarian view, analyzing "lunar influence", and "X-checking", etc., Ebb is showing the necessary flexibility to adapt to changes in the market trends.
By the way, I also read your posts with great interest in order to ascertain where there might be disagreements as to market allocations. Keep it up!
tspgo_com
Active member
TSPGO HR: What's Ahead..
Tue 02/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 3, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 03/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 4, 07 ==> Pointing to: S&I
Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: C
Tue 02/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 3, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 03/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 4, 07 ==> Pointing to: S&I
Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: C
tspgo_com
Active member
tspgo_com
Active member
Wed 03/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 4, 07 ==> Pointing to: S&I
Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 Pointing to: F/G
Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 Pointing to: F/G
tspgo_com
Active member
No change. Going back to I. Holding it there for three days if nothing else changes. However, keep watching ..
Good luck!
tspgo_com
Active member
HR: What's Ahead ..
Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => 10/10/07 Pointing to: F/I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => 10/10/07 Pointing to: F/I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
tspgo_com
Active member
Re: HR: What's Ahead ..
"The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 8th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 8th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 9th), at Tuesday's closing share prices."
Therefore adjustment to the dates. The allocations remain the same.
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 10, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: F/I
Thu 11/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 12, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Note: The first date is the date to submit the IFT ((before noon EST) to be in the Fund on the second date.
Good luck to all!
"The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Monday, October 8th, in observance of Columbus Day. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (October 8th) will be processed Tuesday night (October 9th), at Tuesday's closing share prices."
Therefore adjustment to the dates. The allocations remain the same.
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 10, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: F/I
Thu 11/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 12, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Note: The first date is the date to submit the IFT ((before noon EST) to be in the Fund on the second date.
Good luck to all!
tspgo_com
Active member
HR: What's Ahead ..
10/04/07 = For => 10/05/07 ==> F(2)57 ==> I(5)65 ==> G(7) ==> F(1)46 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/05/07 = For => 10/09/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(5)51 ==> G(7) ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 ==> 0 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> C(7)73 Pointing to: I
10/10/07 = For => 10/11/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: I
10/11/07 = For => 10/12/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/12/07 = For => 10/15/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
Legend
Date (1) IFT before noon to be in Fund on Date (2)
==>0==> = Pending output.
10/04/07 = For => 10/05/07 ==> F(2)57 ==> I(5)65 ==> G(7) ==> F(1)46 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/05/07 = For => 10/09/07 ==> F(1)61 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(5)51 ==> G(7) ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 ==> 0 ==> I(1)60 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> C(7)73 Pointing to: I
10/10/07 = For => 10/11/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: I
10/11/07 = For => 10/12/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> F(1)46 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/12/07 = For => 10/15/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
Legend
Date (1) IFT before noon to be in Fund on Date (2)
==>0==> = Pending output.
tspgo_com
Active member
You are welcome!
Thank you for stopping by. And thank you for your contribution to this MB.
Enjoy the long weekend.
tspgo_com
Active member
Re: HR: What's Ahead ..
Hope everybody had a nice long weekend.
Just a minor change..
Although the TSP was closed yesterday, the USM/OSM were open yesterday. The effect of yesterday is as follows:
Date G FUND F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND
5-Oct-07 12.15 11.57 17.48 21.18 25.58
8-Oct-07 12.15 11.57 17.43 20.97 25.4 (Calculated)
And the change in our projection is as follows.
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 10, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: C/I
Thu 11/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 12, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Fri 12/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 15, 07 ==> Pointing to: F
The change is not much but we have to keep in touch we reality and maintain the system accurate.
Best wishes to all!
Hope everybody had a nice long weekend.
Just a minor change..
Although the TSP was closed yesterday, the USM/OSM were open yesterday. The effect of yesterday is as follows:
Date G FUND F FUND C FUND S FUND I FUND
5-Oct-07 12.15 11.57 17.48 21.18 25.58
8-Oct-07 12.15 11.57 17.43 20.97 25.4 (Calculated)
And the change in our projection is as follows.
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 8, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 08/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 10, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: C/I
Thu 11/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 12, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Fri 12/Oct 07 = For => Mon, Oct 15, 07 ==> Pointing to: F
The change is not much but we have to keep in touch we reality and maintain the system accurate.
Best wishes to all!
Last edited:
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