Tspgo_com Account Talk

[tspgo_com]

At 12:20pm the SPX is still below the 50 day MA, but that may change this afternoon. The talk on CNBC from talking heads say this is a buying opportunity. "Add to your position." This could be a shake out the weak bulls move.

View attachment 2356

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500

You are right. I looks as a buying opportunity. NOT because CNBC says so. I worry when CNBC or the media aggrees with what I am seeing. My biggest concerns is that the market is reacting + or - to any news. We are to close the 1490 support. If it goes below 1490 we might see a significant drop. Still I am very bullish for November and December. Closing above 1500 would be a good cushion for the drop on Friday after CFC reports. We all know their numbers won't be good. The USM might take that as an excuse to go down. I am expecting USM to go up tomorrow. We will bail out and wait in the G-Fund for whatever happens on Friday.

Good luck!

 

[tspgo_com]

The projection for today was to go to the I-Fund. However, the +FV ghost is hanging over us again. S&P respected the 1490 support once more. Expecting a rebound tomorrow. Looking to be out for Friday.

I was expecting a turn around but not this big:
Estimate:
I=25.29
-0.17 FV
+0.33 FV
Final= 25.45 (Just guessing)

 

[tspgo_com]

I was expecting a turn around but not this big:
Estimate:
I=25.29
-0.17 FV
+0.33 FV
Final= 25.45 (Just guessing)

Well, I am glad that I guessed today's FV wrong ( I used the S&P change instead of the DOW's.

We'll get it right one of these days!

 

[tspgo_com]

HR: Taking profit. Going 80% G, 10% S, 10% I

Best wishes.

 

[tspgo_com]

We are in +FV territory. I am expecting a +FV of at least 15

 

[tspgo_com]

HR What's Ahead ..

Mon 29/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 30, 07 ==> Pointing to: C
Tue 30/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 31, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

 

[tspgo_com]

Re: HR What's Ahead ..

Mon 29/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 30, 07 ==> Pointing to: C
Tue 30/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 31, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

The call is to go to C today. Let's keep 40% in G to get the sure penny tomorrow.

Best wishes to all!

 

[DrFaustus]

Re: HR What's Ahead ..

Mon 29/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 30, 07 ==> Pointing to: C
Tue 30/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 31, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

TSPGO,

I just wanted to make sure I'm reading this right ... you're saying to be in the C fund on Tuesday and the I fund on Wednesday, yes?

Are you planning to override this at all, given the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday? I am betting on a rate cut that day, so I was leaning toward the S fund.

Dan

 

[tspgo_com]

Re: HR What's Ahead ..

TSPGO,

I just wanted to make sure I'm reading this right ... you're saying to be in the C fund on Tuesday and the I fund on Wednesday, yes?

Are you planning to override this at all, given the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday? I am betting on a rate cut that day, so I was leaning toward the S fund.

Dan

No. I am not planning to override the projections (T/A). Sometimes I have to make minor adjustment at the end of the day because of the effect of the closing prices might have on the current projection at the end of the day. I am trying to stick to the projections as much as possible and ignore my expectations and gut feelings. I have been hit hard almost everytime I have changed my mind to follow my intuitive reasoning. (Today I decided to keep 40% in G to get the G penny tomorrow). We should be back in the I-fund for Wed).

Thanks for all your contribution to this MB.

Good luck!

 

[tspgo_com]

I-Fund
25.88 x 0.015 = 26.18 - 17 FV = 26.01 Gain .13
New Value = 26.01

(Just guessing)

 

[DrFaustus]

OK ... I just don't get it. How do you go about estimating the FV? Is there a step-by-step process outlined somewhere? I've seen the various discussions about the FV here on the MB and, though I understand the philosophy, I'm still in the dark about the mechanics.

 

[tspgo_com]

OK ... I just don't get it. How do you go about estimating the FV? Is there a step-by-step process outlined somewhere? I've seen the various discussions about the FV here on the MB and, though I understand the philosophy, I'm still in the dark about the mechanics.

I don't know if there is step-by-step process outlined somewhere. This is what I do:

Step I:
At approximately 11:36 am (OSM Closed) go to http://finance.yahoo.com/qs=^gspc+^dwcp+efa+agg&d=t and to http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI
Take the value of the Dow (Today Dow= 13811.65)
Take the pencentage change of S&P (-.59%)

Step 2:
At approximately 2:45 pm go to http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/stdindex/performance.html and get the pencetage change of the EAFE.

Multiply last day I-Fund by the EAFE % change. (This will give you the I-Fund value for the day.)

Step 3:
At 4:00 pm (Closed USM) (Using the same links as in Step I)
Take the value of the Dow
Take the pencentage change of S&P

Step 4:
Substract the values obtained in step one from the values obtained in step three.
If the change in value is over 0.51% in both the DOW and S&P an FV is almost certain

Step 5:
Take the change % change in the DOW and multiply it by yesterday I-Fund price. This would be the expected FV

Add this amount to the price from step 2.

This should give you the approximate closing price for the I-Fund today.

As anything else in the market, it is not 100% sure but it works (sometimes) for me.

It is a lot easier done than explained. I use a spreadsheet to the math and to evoke the links. The days you would expect +FV is when the USM opens way down.

Today my projections indicate that I should move to the I-Fund. It is also see it as a good move because of the potential of a +FV for tomorrow. My expection is that tomorrow the USM market will be low in the morning while waiting for the rate cut. It should react positively in the afternoon causing a +FV. If things work as planed I would take profit tomorrow and then get back in the next day with the -FV. Hoping it works out that way.

Hope it helps!

 

[tspgo_com]

0.50%

I-Fund
25.93 Yesterday closing
0.50% (Bloomberg Change
26.06 (Current Value)
0.13 (Change)

Now waiting for the +FV

 

[tspgo_com]

Getting ready for a wild ride ahead ..
Holding on to my seat and to 100% I-Fund.

Best wishes to all!

 

[tspgo_com]

It went well and it looks better.

26.16
0.16 0.16 (FV)
0
26.32 0.39

(Just guessing)

 

[tspgo_com]

HR: What's Ahead ..

Wed 31/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Nov 1, 07 ==> Pointing to: C/I
Thu 01/Nov 07 = For => Fri, Nov 2, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Fri 02/Nov 07 = For => Mon, Nov 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

Best Wishes to All!

 

[charmed855]

Re: HR: What's Ahead ..

Wed 31/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Nov 1, 07 ==> Pointing to: C/I
Thu 01/Nov 07 = For => Fri, Nov 2, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Fri 02/Nov 07 = For => Mon, Nov 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

Best Wishes to All!

tspgo - it's good to see another system finishing the week in stocks. My system has had me in stocks for 13 straight days - very unusual. :blink:
Anyway, thanks for sharing your picks and insights!

 

[tspgo_com]

0.50%

I-Fund
25.93 Yesterday closing
0.50% (Bloomberg Change
26.06 (Current Value)
0.13 (Change)

Now waiting for the +FV

Negative FV on the Horizont

26.31 Yesterday closing
-0.90% (Bloomberg Change)
26.07 Current value
-0.31 Today's Fair Valuation
-0.16 Correction Yesterday's FV
25.6 Closing price today.
-0.71 Total loss

It can't be. I hope my calculations are all wrong!

(Just guessing).

 

[tspgo_com]

Fri 02/Nov 07 = For => Mon, Nov 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Mon 05/Nov 07 = For => Tue, Nov 6, 07 ==> Pointing to: F
Tue 06/Nov 07 = For => Wed, Nov 7, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

 

[tspgo_com]

Expecting rebound this afternoon for +FV
USM rebound tomorrow
I-Fund deep tomorrow. Buying opportunity