Tspgo_com Account Talk

[tspgo_com]

The last short term trend indicator in TSPGO! turned red. All TSPGO! indicators are red. Consider staying out of this market until we see at least a reversal of the short term trends. (see chats at www.tspgo.com)

Good luck.

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

Discrepancies www.tspgo.com vs High Risk Account

For tracking purposes the TSPGO! High Risk Account is 40% G 40% S and 20% I since August 1, 2006. However, we made a move before noon on August 10, 2006 to High Risk 90% G 5% S, 5% that was posted at www.tspgo.com. I just realized that it appears as if I forgot to update the High Risk account here. This has caused a discrepancy between what is posted at www.tspgo.com and what is posted here at http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=51844&postcount=39 .

We expect to be synchronized again sometime this week when the I-Fund and the S-Fund trigger one of our buy signals. The S-Fund shoulld be triggering a "Slope Buy Signal" in the 16.15 - 16.20 area and the I-Fund can trigger a Buy Signal any day.

I apologize for the inconvenience this might have cause anybody following our moves here without checking our charts and moves at the website.

Current position for tracking purposes: High Risk Account is 40% G 40% S and 20%

Good luck!

 

[tspgo_com]

What's Ahead..

It seems that it is time to start moving ("slowly") funds to the S-Fund. It should probably be bullish for at least for the next 7 - 14 trading days. Perhaps even more.

The chart attached plots the current 6 months cycle (yellow) along with the 3 cycles since June 2003. It measures trading days from July - December. The x-axis is the percentage gain.

It seems that the current cycle is about to go bullish following very close the JD04 (July - December 2004). If it does not fall below the green line by the end of this week we should be looking at a nice rebound. After the rebound it should follow the same pattern (up) as the three previous cycles.

If by the end of this week we see a break below the green line, then we have to revise our position and look at the bearish case that has been hanging over our head since the S&P broke down below 1290.

See graph: http://www.tspgo.com/images/sfund1111season2.gif

Good luck.

TSPGO!

 

[dell]

TSPGO: I am not sure how to read your chart concerning going below the green line. Could you elaborate? Can I follow one of the indices?

Dell

 

[tspgo_com]

TSPGO: I am not sure how to read your chart concerning going below the green line. Could you elaborate? Can I follow one of the indices?

Dell

There are three lines: 1=share price (red) 2=SMA-1 (green) and 3=SMA=2 (blue). When the share price falls below SMA-1 is a sell signal. When the price goes above SMA-1 is a buy signal. Another sell signal is at the count of 4 positives or combination of neutral and positve. See the link below for illustration.

http://tspgo.com/images/3sellbuygraph.gif

Other buy signals: SMA-1 is trending up; Slope is at -.005 for C, S, and I.

I trust this illustration will answer your question.

TSPGO!

 

[dell]

Thanks. I appreciate your help.

Dell

 

[tspgo_com]

Thank you.

The S&P is in a short term uptrend (Good news)

The 4-year Cycle is on the same positive path as that of the 74-80 and as the 90-94 (Good news)

As long as the S&P remains between 1240 and 1290, it is not in safe ground. Extreme caution should be used until the it breaks above 1290 and holds it.

Good luck!

TSPGO!

8/17/06
The S&P is above 1290. Let's increase our position in stocks a little at a time until we know for sure that 1292 is going to hold. We might consider loading up when it retraces back to 1292.

 

[tspgo_com]

What's Ahead .. Is it a Cup and Handle Formation?

10-18-06
Is it a Cup and Handle Formation?

http://tspgo.com/images/cfund060818.gif

The cup is almost formed. The handle should start forming around 14.56

TSPGO!

Note: If the link does not work go to www.tspgo.com and click in the "What's Ahead" link.

 

[tspgo_com]

8/17/06
The S&P is above 1290. Let's increase our position in stocks a little at a time until we know for sure that 1292 is going to hold. We might consider loading up when it retraces back to 1292.

Increasing I to 50%

Looking into the completion of the Cup and Handle formation before the end of August.

Good luck

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

The C, S and the I-Fund triggered a 5-5-10 sell signal. The S&P fell below 1300 and it went back down to 1292. Anything below 1292 is bad news.

Watch it carefully.

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

What's Ahead -8/31/06

All indicators (trend +, 5-5-10 Rule +, Fund seasonality charts +, 4-year cycle +, Cup and Handle Formation +, etc) advise against moving out of stocks. However, today we will err on the side of caution and take 50% off the table.

Links to charts
Trend and 5-5-10 Rule: http://tspgo.com/images/ifund1111.gif
Cup and Handle Formation: http://tspgo.com/images/cfund060818.gif
Fund Seasonality: http://tspgo.com/images/ifund1111season2.gif

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

What's Ahead: 9/05/06

TSPGO inidicators seem to point toward the I-Fund having a positive week before the fall.

(1) 5-5-10 Rule (+): http://www.tspgo.com/images/ifund1111.gif
(2) Trend (+): http://www.tspgo.com/images/ifund1111trend.gif
(3) Seasonality (+): http://www.tspgo.com/images/ifund1111season2.gif
(4) 4-Year Cycle (+): http://www.tspgo.com/images/sam6.gif

Regardless of the above indicators, we remain in conservative stand due to September reputation of being the worst month of the year. In time like these, the market tend to be a self-fulfiling prophecy.

Good luck to all!

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

Things are not looking good. All TSPGO signals are negative. The end of the 4-year cycle looks bad.

http://tspgo.com/images/sam9my4cycle.gif

We should be prepare for significant drop if the the S&P breaks below 1292

(The current cycle is the dark blue line between bars 2 and 3.)

Let's watch the action from the sideline for a few days.

Good luck to all!

TSPGO!

 

[tspgo_com]

Re: What's Ahead .. Is it a Cup and Handle Formation?

10-18-06
Is it a Cup and Handle Formation?

http://tspgo.com/images/cfund060818.gif

The cup is almost formed. The handle should start forming around 14.56

TSPGO!

Note: If the link does not work go to www.tspgo.com and click in the "What's Ahead" link.

09/16/06

The saucer of the cup is oomplete. Expect a pull back to form the handle.
Before: http://tspgo.com/images/cfund060818.gif
Now: http://tspgo.com/images/cfund060915.gif

It seems now is the right time to get out of the C-Fund.

TSPGO!

Note: If the graph links do not work go to www.tspgo.com and click in the "What's Ahead" link.[/QUOTE]

 

[tspgo_com]

What's Ahead: 09-19-06

Warning !!: Day 993 of the 4-year Cycle was completed on 9/18/06. Day 996 will be on Thursday September 21, 2006 (Link to Charts)

TSPGO!

 

[fedgolfer]

Econ rpts/data could be influencing the market/s&p to a breakout above ~1324. This expected cup & handle could turn into a rounding-bottom breakout pretty easily, no? Either way we should be ready our trigger fingers cause there's something moving in the bushes, bull or bear, we shall soon find out!

 

[dell]

Link to what charts?

 

[vectorman]

Link to what charts?

http://www.tspgo.com/tspgoframes.htm

 

[dell]

What is the significance of day 993 and day 996 and where does the theory come from?

 

[tspgo_com]

The cycle begins with the low formed between Sept. 30 and Nov. 19 of Year One of the cycle (1962, 1966...2002, 2006). The current cycle (red) is almost completed. Approximatelly 18 trading-days to go.

Day #990 was completed on September 15, 2006. Eight of the last 10 last years of the cycles reached the top between days 992 and 996 then went into a ditch (dropped significantly) during the coming home stretch of the cycle.

4-Year Cycle (+): http://www.tspgo.com/images/sam6.gif and http://www.tspgo.com/images/sam7.gif)

Sorry for the delay addressing your questions.

For all the graphs go to www.tspgo.com and click the S&P price on top of the page.

TSPGO!