Tspgo_com Account Talk

Econ rpts/data could be influencing the market/s&p to a breakout above ~1324. This expected cup & handle could turn into a rounding-bottom breakout pretty easily, no? Either way we should be ready our trigger fingers cause there's something moving in the bushes, bull or bear, we shall soon find out!

I am not counting much on the breakout above 1324-1330. It seems the S&P is running on fumes and the market is a self-fulfilling prophecy. There are too many negative variables for the next three weeks that jumping in now does not worth the risk if you are in for the the medium-long range. We should see a significant drop within the next three weeks (the handle formation). This drop (call it retracement) should be the best opportunity to get in to ride the big wave ( End of year rally, 4-year cycle initial thrust, etc.). Of course, this does not apply If you are daytrading the funds.

TSPGO!
 
What's Ahead: 10-23-06

10/23/06
The market is over extended. Let's move to the side line and wait for the pull back to get back in slowly and take advantage of the end of the year rally.

TSPGO!
 
What's Ahead - 11-10-06

S-Fund and the I-Fund: Expecting a rebound from the SMA-1 support. Retesting of the highs sometime next week. Looking into taking some profit at 21.29 (I) and at 18.25-18.30 (S)

TSPGO!
 
What's Ahead -11/23/06

What's Ahead ...

Considere moving to the I-Fund. From here till December 31, 2006, there seems to be no other way to go but up.

See graph
www.tspgo.com/images/ifund1111season2.gif

Legend:
JD03 = I-Fund return from July - December 2003
JD04 = I-Fund return from July - December 2004
JD05 = I-Fund return from July - December 2005
JD06 = I-Fund return from July - Present 2006

Disclaimier: Past performance ...

Happy Thanksgiving

TSPGO!
 
Looks like a excellent trend to follow to me! Also, with the foreign Central Banks all in rate raising mode, this should weaken the Dollar against their currencies.

Happy Thanksgiving!
 
But...if our economic growth slows down they will slow down also and with increasing rates that will hurt profits. The EZ folks don't want the U.S. to have a weaker dollar. I'd be careful into next year.
 
Re: What's Ahead -11/23/06

What's Ahead ...

Considere moving to the I-Fund. From here till December 31, 2006, there seems to be no other way to go but up.

Except that this year has been the year going against the rules of seasonality.
 
Re: What's Ahead -11/23/06

Except that this year has been the year going against the rules of seasonality.

You are correct. However two points that favor the I-Fund traders are 1) having an idea what the closing price will be before noon and, 2) Seasonality speaking and all things being equal (for C, S, and I) the I-Fund looks a lot better.

I think the days ahead are perfect to borrow from Birchtree's old wisdom of buying the deeps. I would not recommend to hold but to sell the highs to avoid being left "holding the bag" when the correction comes. From a T/A point of view there should be a 5%-10% correction for the market to get some energy to continue.

Keep well,

TSPGO!
 
Re: What's Ahead -11/23/06

Your ITF posted in your account thread for Nov 27th doesn't match the ones you posted at your TSPgo site???

Also if you are showing three red circles for your 5-5-10 rule, why are you increasing your position???
 
Re: What's Ahead -11/23/06

Your ITF posted in your account thread for Nov 27th doesn't match the ones you posted at your TSPgo site???

Also if you are showing three red circles for your 5-5-10 rule, why are you increasing your position???

There was a transaction done on 11/22/06 that for some reason it was not uploaded on the website. The position on 11/22/06 was to be 90g 5s 5I, then start accumulating from there on.

We trying to synchronize. The reason for the incremental purchases is based on the fact that the C-Fund and the S-Fund (historically) had no more room to go from here to the end of the year. (See seasonality charts for each fund at www.tspgo.com). The I-Fund seasonality chart showed that it was still behind and had more potential to continue going up until the end of the year.

(Sorry about the quick response. I hope it makes sense. I am trying to do this as fast as can. If you know what I mean)
Good luck,

TSPGO!
 
Let's take some profit off the table and wait for the pull back to get in for the December rally.

Going to 80G 10S 10I.

Good luck!
 
Today we may a quick (partial) move to the S-Fund. It seems we are at the end of a correction. This minor deep should be short lived. We should see a rebound to the top between tomorrow and Friday (Jan. 24-26). Then the big correction might come and last until the end of Februar. It might bring some good entry points for long term traders. TSPGO! High Risk should be back to a confortable position before the end of the week. If the S-Fund dops tomorrow (as it is customary after a big drop) we will buy a little bit more to cost average and move out at the dead cat bounce. Then we will wait until we get solid Buy Signal.

Good luck to all!
 
Today we may a quick (partial) move to the S-Fund. It seems we are at the end of a correction. This minor deep should be short lived. We should see a rebound to the top between tomorrow and Friday (Jan. 24-26). Then the big correction might come and last until the end of Februar. It might bring some good entry points for long term traders. TSPGO! High Risk should be back to a confortable position before the end of the week. If the S-Fund dops tomorrow (as it is customary after a big drop) we will buy a little bit more to cost average and move out at the dead cat bounce. Then we will wait until we get solid Buy Signal.

Good luck to all!
I'm pretty confused because I cannot figure out how to relate the recommendations and history on the website to the trading moves reported here. Is the website supposed to be in sync with this thread?
 
You have to read, learn, interact, ask questions, help others with answers, and be cautious taking risks with your retirement funds. Someone was always ready to help me here, and somrone will help you too! Good luck.:)

I'm pretty confused because I cannot figure out how to relate the recommendations and history on the website to the trading moves reported here. Is the website supposed to be in sync with this thread?
 
TSPGO! Explained

I'm pretty confused because I cannot figure out how to relate the recommendations and history on the website to the trading moves reported here. Is the website supposed to be in sync with this thread?

TSPGO! Explained

TSPGO! Is non-profit website. There is no charge for the information provided and donations are not requested. TSPGO! Visitors will notice that there are no ads to click on. All the information provided is as-is and it is free. TSPGO! is not competing with TSPTalk in any way and it is not trying to get business from or away from TSPtalk. Tom has always been admired for his dedication and for giving birth to TSPtalk and for allowing it to grow to what it is today. There are quite a few highly respected members who deserved our admiration because of their contributions. They make their contributions with no strings attached and expecting nothing in return. TSPeers who hang around this board are a lucky bunch.

TSPGO’s comments at the TSPGO_Com Account talk have been kept to minimum due to an apparent misconception that TSPGO!’s contributions were intended to get business away from TSPtalk. Nothing further from the truth.

TSPGO! Explained.
TSPGO! Consists mostly of TSP funds related charts. The information from the charts is used to trigger action signals (Buy, Sell, Wait and Hold). Buy and Sell signals usually last one day. Wait and Hold signals may be active for several days.

The main page at www.tspgo.com contains the current signals for each TSP fund (F, C, S and I). These signals are generated by two Simple Moving Averages and the difference between the two of them. A buy signal is triggered when the slope falls below “0” (see chart http://www.tspgo.com/images/sfund1111trend22.gif ). A sell signal is triggered when it goes above “0”. Buy and Sell signals only last one day. Since June 2003, the return for an individual fund has always been more than a Buy and Hold for the same fund. For example, following the signals for the F-Fund will generate better return than if buying and holding the F-Fund. The same holds true for the C, S and the I fund. The average number of IFT’s has been three per month.

TSPGO! 5-5-10-S Rule Signals
One Buy signal is generated as explained above. Another buy signal is generated when the fund price moves above SMA-1 and SMA-2 (See chart: http://www.tspgo.com/images/sfund1111.gif ). Sell signals are generated when there is count of 4 positive moves above SMA-1 and SMA-2 or four moves above the SMA’s of a combination of neutral and positive moves (see chart: http://www.tspgo.com/images/3sellbuygraph.gif ). Another sell signal is generated when the price falls below SMA-1. The fund selected is the best performing one by looking at the TSP Return Graph (see chart: http://www.tspgo.com/images/00tsprate.gif ) and the Seasonality chart (see graph: http://www.tspgo.com/images/sfund1111season2.gif ). These charts are all grouped together under the link of each fund.

TSPGO! High Risk
The first buy signal is triggered when the slope falls below “0”. The first sell signal is triggered when the slope moves above “0”. Once the first sell signal is generated the next buy and sell signals will be determined by looking at the buy and sell signals generated by the individual funds, by looking at the trend and the behavior of the SMA-1 and SMA-2 (see chart: http://www.tspgo.com/images/2sellbuygraph.gif ). At this point there might be short term movements between funds while waiting for a strong buy signal from the leading fund. It is not rare to see daily IFT’s once the leading fund has generated a sell signal.

TSPGO! Vs. TSPtalk
Sometimes you might see some discrepancies between the High Risk signals in the TSPGO! Website and the one on TSPtalk TSPGO High Risk account. This difference comes about because the information at the TSPGO! website is updated more often the night before going to work. Once at work www.tspgo.com can’t be updated. At around 11:30 am EST during lunch time the estate of the market and changes in the I-Fund are analyzed by looking at the “World Market” page at www.tspgo.com. This information is tabulated in an Excel spreadsheet. Changes are taking into account to determine if the changes in the I-Fund has triggered a signal. If a signal has been triggered an IFT is submitted to www.tps.gov and recorded for tracking purposes to the TSPGO account at the TSPTalk MB. www.tspgo.com TSPeers who have left an e-mail address have been given instructions and a link to visit www.tsptalk.com MB by 11:45 EST to see if any last minute changes to the allocations have been posted.

Hope this will answer most of your questions.

Good luck to all!

TSPGO!
 
.. "We should see a rebound to the top between tomorrow and Friday (Jan. 24-26). Then the big correction might come and last until the end of February. It might bring some good entry points for long term traders. TSPGO! High Risk should be back to a confortable position before the end of the week. If the S-Fund drops tomorrow (as it is customary after a big drop) we will buy a little bit more to cost average and move out at the dead cat bounce. Then we will wait until we get solid Buy Signal.

Good luck to all!

IMHO, Long Term traders should be moving to the sideline. TSPGO! High Risk suffered some minor losses with the F-Fund. The F-Fund is heading back down to buying territory so we will hold this position a little bit longer.

High Risk Current Position: 95% F, 5%S.
5-5-10-S Rule: 100% G

Good luck to all
 
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