Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04

[tsptalk]

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retire rich wrote:

Tom I don't blame you for taking some more of the table, at least until there is some solid direction in the market. Nobody wants to get caught hoding the bag when the market is going sideways or dropping precipitously.

The resistance and the overbought condition was there so the writing was on the wall for a pullback. You just never know when though. This is all normal stuff though. I'm not too worried. Could be jitters before the morning jobs report.

I am hoping the S&P can hold the 1100-1105 area. That may be a place to start getting some back in.

 

[Guest]

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I am now 65% G, 10% C, 10% S, and 15% I (gotta keep some I fund...ha). Hope to catch some opportunities to jump back in on the downward trip





I think I'm ready to further take more cover in the G--basically looking to bail my 35% out of the equities. This will most likely be a very short term move, but I sense a lot uncetainty in the market. I didn't do this today, but may be Tomorrow or Friday. Tom I don't blame you for taking some more of the table, at least until there is some solid direction in the market. Nobody wants to get caught hoding the bag when the market is going sideways or dropping precipitously.

 

[tsptalk]

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puertorico wrote:

Tom I see the chart today

Euro/us dollar

The chart is down 1.2226

So,that means dollar isup and I-fund not benefic in the trade ?

Yeah, the pound andeuro are up vs. the dollar. When the dollar is down, the I fund usually does better than the EAFE index.

 

[puertorico]

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http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex


Tom I see the chart today

Euro/us dollar

The chart is down 1.2226

So,that means dollar isup and I-fund not benefic in the trade ?

I'm doing my home-work

 

[Rolo]

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haha...Yeah, it's hard to argue with a multi-billionaire about the market.

I am going to wait to see if it changes course or resumes falling, as well as keep an eye out for commentary on it. Then, I will weigh that against our rally, as in, if it is just another futile attempt or for real. Then there are interest rates....

 

[tsptalk]

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The uptrend was broken so... it's possible the longer term downtrend may resume.

Remember I had mentioned that Warren Buffett thoughtthe dollar going to go down, and I didn't believe it. I guess that's why he's a multi-billionaire and I'm a lowly multi-thousandaire.

 

[Rolo]

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So you think the buck has started a new downtrend completely?

I talked to a fellow today who believes so...so much that he moved all of his investments internationally. I shall try to get the details of his thinking.

 

[tsptalk]

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(gotta keep some I fund...ha).

I think you are right. If we get a bit of a pullback I will have get something in the I fund now that the dollar broke it's trend. Probably next week.

Sorry if I sound like a broken record on this subject. I know many readers follow the moves I make and I want everyone to know where I stand.

Tom

 

[Guest]

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Wow time flies when you're having fun...I've been out of pocket the last couple of days. But before I flew the coup, I moved some off the table, and back into the G fund-made move back Wedesday.



I am now 65% G, 10% C, 10% S, and 15% I (gotta keep some I fund...ha). Hope to catch some opportunities to jump back in on the downward trip.

 

[puertorico]

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Nice stuff ,Even not being good with chart

I'll try to learn.nOw I'm leaving and later gonna take

a better look.Its good TO know When the dollar up or down

before any trade. U see I become a better investor...Thank Tom



Rolo

U having fun ah !

Good gain and then feel the pain :?

I have been there :?

 

[Rolo]

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puertorico wrote:

This is the problem :?when I suposed to take

money out the table and grab the profit then

I become greedy...

haha! Amen to that! Yeah, I had to forfeit some paper profits before learning that lesson. I am sure I will get the occasional reminder, too.


On the flip side, my history of taking my profits too early probably cost me more than selling too late.

But somehow it feels much worse having had and lost than never having had at all.

 

[tsptalk]

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Where I find IT ! ...if I want to know is the dollar is weak or strong ?

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=forex

They are shown as pound /dollar,euro/dollar etc., so if the top chart is down, it's the pound or euro that is down vs the dollar (meaning the dollar is up).

If the chart is up, it means the pound or euro is up and the dollar is down.

The top chart is the daily chart. The bottom row is a longer term chart.

 

[puertorico]

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...By the way Tom

Where I find IT !

...if I want to know is the dollar is weak or strong ?

 

[puertorico]

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I read u !

...the I fund can be up and

not pay enouff divident.

"when dollar is up bring I-FUND down"

and vice-versa

"when US DOLLAR is down I-FUND benefic "

I got it ,better be caution !

 

[tsptalk]

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Now remember, I'm not saying the EAFE index will be down necessarily. There is no real reason for me to think that. I am saying the dollar may be up and it could slow down the I fund a bit even if the EAFE is up.

About the long weekend. If people are getting nervous and pulling out because of the unlikely possibility of some sort of attack this weekend, then if we don't have an attack, that money will probably go right back into the market on Tuesday.

It won't surprise me to see some late selling because of the fear (unless some traders are thinking the way I am). So Tuesday could be agood assuming nothing happens over the weekend.

 

[puertorico]

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Tom

...Done,I pulled-out of I-fund for tuesday ,I'm out:shock:

thank for the warning.

bY the way...

Hope today get in the green becouse when the day

before holidays is up ,the day after holidayis up too,and

vise-versa.When the day before holiday is down then

the day after HOLIDAYis down too...

 

[tsptalk]

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Yeah. If the uptrend of the dollar is over as the chart suggests, we may get a few days of upward action because of the excessive move down, then a slower decline may be in the works.

I don't say this because I know anything about currencies or economics. It is just based onyears of reading technical charts.

The dollar is up today against the pound and euro by the way.

 

[puertorico]

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...in the short-run...:shock:

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

Tom any plan to change today for monday ?

I'm still watching. I'll probably decide by 11:30 AM ET today. I don't know about getting into the I fund just yet either. Maybe some time next week.

Someone who trades currencies seems to agree with my thought on the dollar right now. This is from advn.com...

"Yesterday's price action was exaggerated, even if, as we argue, that the
foreign-exchange market has adjusted to the shift in expectations of the
trajectory of U.S. monetary policy," said Meg Browne, currency analyst with
HSBC. "The outsized dollar losses seemed to have been largely a result of
speculative flows, thus leaving the market more prone to profit-taking."

In other words, currency tradersthat made money on the dollar falling could take profits and send the dollar up a bit in the short run.

 

[tsptalk]

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Taking money off the table here is not a bad move. We could still move higher but the long weekend and the overbought readings make at least a small pullback, as we are seeing today) likely.

Of course the risk is missing more upside movement. Plusthe first few days of a new month tend to be good. It's a tough call.