May 2024 ranked 7th best of the 64 Months of May, and 107th best of all 762 months.
On the YTD Scale, May 2024’s 10.64% YTD gain ranks 17th best of 64 years. Theoretically, this puts us on track for a 20% to 30% 2024.
Of the 43 times May was positive YTD, June closed higher 70% of the time with an average gain of 2.82%, or closed lower 30% of the time with an average loss of -2.39%.
From 1961, for ranking the Month of June with the other 11 months, I rank it as one of the 3 worst months of the year.
11 of 12 with a 54% win ratio
11 of 12 for the smallest average-of-gains at 2.55%
11 of 12 with an average monthly loss of -.04%
4 of 12 for the average-of-losses at -3.09% (12th is worst)
If we break the month of June down into 21-year increments, we can see the win ratios are strongest over the past 42 years, with the oldest 21-year increment the weakest at 38%. Of our previous 15-Presidential Cycles, June's Year Four has an 80% win ratio.
Here’s our June averages across the past 63 years correlated with June 2024. From a historical perspective, a seller may want to protect their gains above SPX 5412 while a buyer may want to increase their allocations below SPX 5115.
Wrapping this up, June is a month I pay close attention to because historically it’s one of the three worst months, but this year we have some stats in our favor. May closed positive, we are positive YTD, it's the 4th year of the Presidential cycle, and if we could get a decent 3-day head start, I think we can churn out a good 2.5% month.
Have a solid month, & thanks for reading...Jason
On the YTD Scale, May 2024’s 10.64% YTD gain ranks 17th best of 64 years. Theoretically, this puts us on track for a 20% to 30% 2024.
Of the 43 times May was positive YTD, June closed higher 70% of the time with an average gain of 2.82%, or closed lower 30% of the time with an average loss of -2.39%.
From 1961, for ranking the Month of June with the other 11 months, I rank it as one of the 3 worst months of the year.
11 of 12 with a 54% win ratio
11 of 12 for the smallest average-of-gains at 2.55%
11 of 12 with an average monthly loss of -.04%
4 of 12 for the average-of-losses at -3.09% (12th is worst)
If we break the month of June down into 21-year increments, we can see the win ratios are strongest over the past 42 years, with the oldest 21-year increment the weakest at 38%. Of our previous 15-Presidential Cycles, June's Year Four has an 80% win ratio.
Here’s our June averages across the past 63 years correlated with June 2024. From a historical perspective, a seller may want to protect their gains above SPX 5412 while a buyer may want to increase their allocations below SPX 5115.
Wrapping this up, June is a month I pay close attention to because historically it’s one of the three worst months, but this year we have some stats in our favor. May closed positive, we are positive YTD, it's the 4th year of the Presidential cycle, and if we could get a decent 3-day head start, I think we can churn out a good 2.5% month.
Have a solid month, & thanks for reading...Jason
