S-fund holders received relief this week. Seemingly modest, the S-fund's 0.8% gain this week was its first positive week since the week ending May 17[SUP]th[/SUP]. It was also the first week the S-fund outperformed the C-fund since the week ending May 4[SUP]th[/SUP].
The C-fund produced better daily returns than the S-fund in the first three days of the shortened week, but the S-fund topped the C-fund for the week when it had a positive return Friday while the C-fund took a modest loss.
Both the C-fund and S-fund peaked for the week on Tuesday ahead of the rare Wednesday holiday. Following the mid-week break, this year’s market leader Nvidia led a market reversal that took the indices off early highs and into modest losses on Thursday. The indices continued their pull-back into Friday, but the small cap index DWCPF (S-fund) rallied into the close to come out with a gain for the day after spending the entire session in negative territory.
A lucky break for S-fund holders? Or the beginning of a rotation from large cap stocks to small cap stocks?
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending June 21:
The C-fund still came out of the week with a gain, its third consecutive week of gains. The C-fund also put up three consecutive weeks of gains to start May but pulled back in the final week. This pull-back in retrospect was a bull-flag formation providing an entry point for the underinvested before June. If we saw this again in the final week of June, would you consider it a buying opportunity?
The DWCPF (S-fund) looks very different from the S&P 500 chart. But one thing I’ve noticed is the price range has tightened up in June compared to May. The S-fund had a 5.99% spread between its low and high of the month in May. In June, that spread has only been 1.89% so far. This may reduce opportunities for swing traders but may give some peace of mind for buy-and-holders, even if the S-fund is still down 1% for the month. The S-fund fell 2.93% from its May high to its end of month closing price of May.
The Best Return this Week
This week’s best return came from the popular TSP Talk forum contributor JTH. JTH outperformed the TSP funds and all other TSP Talk AutoTracker members this week after he moved from the C-fund to the G-fund on Tuesday giving him a 1.07% return for the week. This move has also lifted his June return to 3.90%, now above the C-fund’s 3.64% June return. JTH is currently in first place in the June AutoTracker Contest. This was his final available move for June, so he is stuck in the G-fund while the last week of June plays out.
Three other members outperformed the S-fund this week. Danno (0.93%) and joe6 (0.88%) consolidated their diversified allocations into the S-fund on Thursday. BHRUNIKH (0.91%) moved to the G-fund on Tuesday similar to JTH but BHRUNIKH was holding the S-fund in the first two days instead of the C-fund.
TSP Talk AutoTracker Average Allocation
TSP Talk AutoTracker members continued their absorption of the C-fund this week. There were no major changes to the average allocation among the ~700 non-premium AutoTracker members this week, but S-fund saw the largest decline in exposure despite outperforming this week. The C and G-fund allocations rose from the previous week.
The S-fund did not take the lead return for the week until late Friday, so we will see if there is a little rotation back into the S-fund early this coming week. Last Look members will get the chance to witness this in real time before the trade deadline.
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Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Talk Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk - Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Thomas Crowley
(TommyIV)
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
