Transfer 5/26/ for 5/27/04

[puertorico]

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This is the problem :?when I suposed to take

money out the table and grab the profit then

I become greedy...

 

[tsptalk]

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Tom any plan to change today for monday ?

I'm still watching. I'll probably decide by 11:30 AM ET today. I don't know about getting into the I fund just yet either. Maybe some time next week.

 

[tsptalk]

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GTO1970 wrote:

Tom,

What is your current allocation?

site show you 25G,35C & 40S

your email on the 26May04 shows 35C & 65S

GTO

Thanks GTO. It's 35% C, 65% S. I must not have updated the new file. It should be right now.

Thanks again.
Tom

 

[puertorico]

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Tom any plan tochange today for monday ?

I still have 10 in I fun ,looking forward to put

a little more becouse when the dollar is down

I-FUND benefic.

bUt we don't know is monday dollar gonna still down ?

 

[GTO1970]

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Tom,

What is your current allocation?

site show you 25G,35C & 40S

your email on the 26May04 shows 35C & 65S

GTO

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks Victor. Hope things work out. Trading can have frustrating moments. To be 100% I fund all the time should bring you some wild swings. Basically you are betting on foreign markets and economies outperforming ours for the long term. I'm not sure I would make that bet. But if it does work out, you could have some big gains.

Good luck!
Tom

 

[VictorPR]

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As time goes on and I read you guys I have to share a bit of information that I have learnedduring the past 7 months, since I started moving my shares....... On May 6, 2004 I had nice TSP Account ($) all invested in the I Fund, as the I fund and the market started to loose ground and got nervous I pulled out and then every few days I will jump back in it and loose some more money! ! ! I finally started making some of the money back ( I lost over $10,000) during those weeks but now that the market is coming back and checking my figures I started at 13.13 (I Fund) and today is at 13.20......If I had left it alone today I would have made more money than I started with, but I am still $6,000 less than what I started with. From now on I will let it ride and see what happens........Thanks

 

[Pete1]

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I ended up staying pat. I think it was fate that the internet was down this morning If we are down tomorrow AM, I think Imay ease a little more into C fund (35C, 25S, 25I, 15G) but Rolo's idea of waiting until things are a historically weakersounds good as well. I am still somewhat wary of Greenie's end of June forecast. He worries me more than anything else out there right now. The long-term trend Tom pointed out this AM for the S&P sure looks promising :^

On another note, it would be fantastic if TSP would extend the cutoff for transfers - my wife's account at Vanguard cuts off at 4PM eastern time for the next day's business. Also, it would be really cool if TSP would allow participants to transfer between funds, eg, G fund to C fund rather than reallocating everything. One of these days maybe :shock:

 

[Rolo]

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tsptalk wrote:

Your misreading of the chart could produce better results then the correct numbers. You just never know. :*

hahahahahaa....lol! That is too funny.

Histerical!

[line]

Itook a break after I had thegrowing feeling that the more analysis and logic I applied to my trades, the more wrong they were. On top of that, the less I went on an unpremised urge, the more I missed out, which actually feels worse.

But, I am still learning. I think. I hope. Bah! It's something to do, in any case.

 

[tsptalk]

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is anyone going for it as a plan versus just keeping it "under advisement"?

I will keep it under advisement. I am debatingon what to do tomorrow (Friday). The first day of the month (next Tuesday) tends to be a pretty good daybut the day after Memorial Day can be weak historically. The indices are now beyond being extremely overbought. Another big morning on Friday and it might be hard to stay in 100% for Tuesday.

caution:Trading using historical data can causepain. Your misreading of the chart could produce better results then the correct numbers. You just never know. :*

But like you had said one time (and I don't remember how you put it), if you have something to help you make a decision that goes beyond making a complete guess, then you have a small advantage. <-- I'm sure you said it better than that

 

[Rolo]

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Ooooooohhhh!! I need a mallet that says "Trading days" to smack myself. I was reading them as calendar days. Dirty blonde and Polish, an embarrasing combination at times....and that is why I ask lots of questions....to save me from myself! heh

O'hell, I think I was looking at May part of the time, too.



Ok, attempt #2: For the first dip, sell June 7th closing prices, buy back at close of June 9th (Day 7), correct?

The next question is, is anyone going for it as a plan versus just keeping it "under advisement"?

 

[tsptalk]

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OK, for the seasonality play, we are looking to put a transfer to G before noon, Wednesday, Jun 2 that will happen at Thursday, Jun 3's closing prices.

Rolo -
I'm not sure why are you saying June3rd. Is that based on that June chart? If you use the historical data (which isn't always a great plan,but it is something) it looks like the 6th trading day of June is where the weakness kicks in. That would be June 8th.

 

[Rolo]

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OK, for the seasonality play, we are looking to put a transfer to Gbefore noon, Wednesday, Jun 2 that will happen at Thursday, Jun 3's closing prices.

Then, if all goes well, we put a transfer back into C/S before noon, Monday, Jun 7 to take effect at Tuesday, Jun 8's closing prices. Or, Jun 17's closing prices may be better.

Correct?

I don't have a Plan B yet, but I assume waiting for a dip would be it since the bulk of June is pretty depressing.

And in Pete's case, if history holds true, just wait until the downtrend just about completes itself.

 

[tsptalk]

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Pete -
Here is someinformation for you. Probably useless, but if it helps you make a decision...

One stat I saw was that the Tuesday afterMemorial Day is weaker than an average day. But, it happens to fall on June 1st this year which is historically above average.

The Friday before Memorial Day, like the day prior to most holidays, is typically stronger than average. But we have seen some weakness going into weekends last several weeks. Last Friday was up however as there seems to be a more optimistic view of the market lately.

The second week of June (see chart above) tends to give back some of the earlier June gains.

Like I said, mostly useless info. But I use this stuff when I have to make a tough call one way or another. There are many people still in cash or even short that are buying any weakness out of fear of missing the boat. I believe that is why we are seeing strength even in this extreme overboughtcondition.

Tom

 

[Pete1]

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Hello folks:

Since going ultra conservative (for me) a few weeks ago (21C, 21S, 21I, 37G), I have been gradually moving back into a higher allocation to stocks. Tom's advice to buy the dips worked very well. I have only been buying when all of the stock funds are in the red (preferably when S and I are down more than C). Currently, I'm up to 81% (32C, 25S, 24I, 19G). I would like to continue to increase my stock allocation to about 90% stocks (36C, 27S, 27I, 10G). I have been overweighting U.S. stocks more so (I usually split the stock $$ equally between the 3 funds). Also, I have been allocating slightly more to the less volatile C fund. I am at an impasse. We have seen a lot of green lately and I am wondering if any red is on the horizon. I guess I will just stick it out and wait for a red day. Of course, if things keep going up, the inevitable red day may still be more expensive than today

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

Rolo wrote:

So how much of a run-up by, say, Jun 2, would you consider to be "too much, too fast" and sell?

This may be too optimistic, but we should find resistance at the 1135 and 1150 area on the S&P 500. And actually, the strongaverages run through the first 5 trading days of June. I'll post June's chart when I get home later.

As promised...

Chart provided courtesy of [url]http://www.sentimentrader.com[/url]

 

[Rolo]

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D'oh!

See, this is why I am 'bad' at 'math': Something goes awry from the brain to the fingers, hehe.

eeeeeeeSSSSSS

Plus, I'm nervous around new people. :shock:


[line]


Yes, your dollar theory and interest rate knowledge are why I am in the C fund, which I had no use for hitherto. Pat yerself on the back!

 

[tsptalk]

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By the way, 70% I fund? I guess you aren't buying my dollar theory. :u

 

[tsptalk]

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Yeah. At this point is seems like we have had role reversal, bears are covering short positions on the pullbacks causing the market to stay up. It may be too early to tell though.

 

[Rolo]

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I'm already there, 30C/70S (edited)

Gotcha...so exit plan possibly for Jun 4 or 7. Ya! I'll go with that, speculating that the MACD will be like it was those two weeks in April. (heh...sound like I know what I'm talking about? 'cos I really don't.)

I was thinking 1155 also, same as before, small pullback, then, hopefully, the resistance becomes support and not another three-month trading range hoop-de-doo.

I am thinking that the leading stocks which are jumping, if they do not forfeit all of their gains and only pull back slightly, then that is indicative of iminent market performance, a litmus test. You think?