Transfer 5/25 for 5/26/04

[tsptalk]

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I'm making a move this morning, getting out of the I fund for a while. My new allocation, which will be effective Wednesday 5/26 will be:

25% G, 35% C, and 40% S fund. See today'smarket comments for details.

Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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So far today, the dollar is pretty weak. Maybe I (we) will get lucky and have a nice day in the I fund today beforebeing out tomorrow.

 

[Rolo]

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Amen to that! I bailed out of I last night (Monday night), so the transfer should be at Tuesday's closing prices and show on my TSP balanceWednesday morning, correct?

Mister Duke seems to be the contrarian, hehehe.

 

[tsptalk]

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so the transfer should be at Tuesday's closing prices and show on my TSP balance Wednesday morning, correct?

That's what I believe to be true. Others seem to think it is not happpening that quickly. Maybe we oughtto checkit and report back here. I made my transfer this morning so I will post herewhen it shows as effective.

 

[Guest]

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You guys will probably say I told you so, but I'm sticking around just a little bit longer...call it crazy, I'm still looking for that big push before I get cool on the I. Hopefully since you guys are bailing, you will get a big bounce today. Take care.

 

[tsptalk]

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I'm sticking around just a little bit longer...call it crazy

That's far from crazy rr. It's actually more like, wellnormal.

I'm sure I'm considered the crazy one. I just hope it's crazy like a fox, but that remains to be seen.

Good luck!
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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The market is really climbing that wall of worry today. Can we get a decent gain to hold for once?

 

[Guest]

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Amen to that. Not like some NBA teams which can't hold on to a 4th quarter lead....gee whiz. Lets go market ..lets gomarket.....

 

[Rolo]

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DE-FENSE! DE-FENSE!

hehe

We're all crazy. I just want to be wealthy enough to be considered "eccentric".

 

[tsptalk]

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It's smart money hour. This is a big tell for the intermediate term. Another failed rally will be demoralizing for the market. We still need more volume.If the rally holds, bears will get nervous and have to cover shorts, thenthe volume should pick up.

 

[tsptalk]

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Very nice day but we are getting quite oversold.

Either we got very lucky with the I fund today (our last day in the fund) or I am very wrong about the dollar. The dollar appears to have been downsharply vs. the euro and pound today. That could mean a 2% plus day for the I fund. That is eitherthe last push downfor the short term declining dollar, or perhaps the dollar will break the upward trend and start back down. For our sake I hope it's the former.

Sorry, I know this is confusing.Basically a rising dollarisnot good for the I fund and a falling dollar is. My belief is thattoday's drop was a last push down and it should rise again soon meaning the I fund may be held back. Todaythe I fund did well. Tomorrow I will be out of the I fund completely. This is a bet that the dollar will rise in the coming days or weeks, and that we are better off in the U.S. markets for a little while.

Hope this make sense.
Tom

 

[Rolo]

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I'm with ya, Tom!

However it works out, I am happy that I went with what seemed like the best idea at the time. Keep the news and analyses comin'! I would have completely overlooked the dollar thing until it was too late.

Since we have to bet, one has to ask one's self, "Will the dollar be stronger, or weaker, 1, 2, 6 months from now?"

Plus, I still have my Asian technology fund, so my portfolio is not totally isolated. I'll be keeping a closer eye on it now, though.

 

[Rolo]

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Ok, my balances still show pre-transfer today (transfer request last night), which the display will be updated tomorrow, 6 a.m.

And, when I go to "request a transfer", it no longer shows that I have a pending transfer, so it must have processed.

 

[tsptalk]

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That has been my experience.

 

[Rolo]

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Oh, cool! I just got the e-mail confirmation...has the before and after shares and $ amounts.

I would like to suggest to them that they include the delta in the e-mail so I don't have to use a calculator every time to update Quicken.

 

[Guest]

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Hey, how about them Lakers...err I mean how about the market yesterday...pretty good stuff all across the EQUITY board- C-S-I. I'm glad you guys were able to cash out of the I on a positive note. I 'm still hanging around trying to get the last gleanings..so far it looks the dollar is still pretty weak....and the foreign markets (Japan and China did alright), and the UK looks good too. I think I may pull back a little from C, S, and I today, and stash a little back in the home G court. Don't know yet what percentage.

 

[Monique]

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Hey Tom.... I have approximately 20% G, 11% F, 45% C, 15% S and 8% I

Do you have any advice for a move for today? I was thinking moving I to G? What about the F??? I haven't made any moves in a very long time. Over a year. Usually I move and never look back.

Thanks, Monique

 

[tsptalk]

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Hi Monique,

Since everyone's situation is different, I try not to tell people what to do, I just tell everyone what I am doing. You can see what Iam doing on([url]http://www.tsptalk.com/allocation.html[/url]). My longer term comments give some other suggestions based on risk tolerance. Basically it says if you don't transfer very often you might want toget more aggressive in stocks (unless you are getting ready to retire in a couple of years). Hopefully that can help you make a decision.

Hope that helps,
Tom

 

[Rolo]

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Note the exit from F. :X

 

[tsptalk]

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I saw the EAFE index was up almost 1% this morning :shock:. It gave mea bit of a queazy feeling. But then I saw the EFA quote (which is the EAFE index withconsideration given to what the dollar is doing) and it was down slightly.Shew! I feel better.