Transfer 5/25 for 5/26/04

[tsptalk]

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Just as a side note. I expected the dollar to start to move up here and that it why I was pulling out of the I fund. Not because I thought the international markets were going to go down. My thinking was that if the U.S. and internationl markets both went up, the I fund shares could be held back by a rising dollar giving reason to stick with the U.S. funds. So far the dollar has not rebounded asI expected.

Unfortunately for those of you who were in the I fund , and some of you quite heavily, and pulledout becauseof my analysis, you may miss a nice day as the EAFE indexis up nicely today. For some reason the dollar is falling again, even though we had some good economic numbers come out this morning. Maybe I'm missing something or else this is the last blowout sell off for the dollar today.

It never fails. Whenever I have a good day and my analysis seems to be on the money, the market quickly comes back to humble me. Today is that day for me.

 

[puertorico]

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I just have 10-I in case that happen soon !

10-i

60-s

30-c

Just hope stay in the green zone

and I'll be alright

 

[smine]

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Nope, not me. After losing big time two - three weeks ago I'm never going with 100%; rather have 34G 33C 33S; plan to always have a little G. Can't bear seeing it lose.

 

[tsptalk]

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puertorico wrote:

I just have 10-I in case that happen soon !

PR -
You had questioned my zero % I fund move the other day. Again you were right (for now ). I have said this before but your instincts are uncanny. Your transfers continueto be timedvery well. Nice job!

 

[puertorico]

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Thank Tom ,just lucky again !

But its tru what u doing.Now we are half-way up

Time to take that 10% out of I-fund to G.

From now on that I recuperate the big loses

time for take every day 10% and put it to G.

STRATEGY

1-Buy bottom add to stock little by little

2-In the way up 100 stock

3-after half way up start adding some to G [10%]

4- first out money is {I},then {S} just

hanging with C in the Top.

5-and if lucky in the way down stay put in G.

Tom..just trying to have a game plan

and always watching your input and everybodies

comments.For any idea or warning....#-1 fan tspTALK

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks PR. I like your game plan. :^

 

[tsptalk]

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Back to the I fund, I emailed someone at thestreet.com who knows a lot more about economics and the dollar than I do. I asked why he thinks the dollar is continuing to fall. Here is his reponse:

"I believe the dollar is falling b/c recent economic data haven't been so great, meaning the Fed *might* not be so aggressive in tightening, meaning the yield differential b/t the fed funds rate and other CB rates will remain wide...and there's also the structural trade/budget deficits weighing on the buck on a more LT basis. Hope that helps, AT "

 

[tsptalk]

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A nice day across the board. Especially the I fund - :'

I guess I shouldn't complain about a good day, but I feel bad that many of you pulled out of the I fund because of me. Maybe tomorrow or next week my analysis will pay off.

 

[tsptalk]

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The dollar really took a beating today confirming the break of that trend line (see chart in postseveral posts above) as it fell to 88.70. Now my strategy changes. I will look for a rebound in the dollar to get into the I fund. That may take a few days.I don't want to jump right in as we could very well get a pullback in the EAFE and a rebound in the dollar after today's big day.

 

[Rolo]

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baHAha!...oh, dontcha hate that? It's my fault since I moved more out of I than you did and those Fates don't like me. meh...It's only a 1% gain more than the C, no biggie...I'm happy with my choice.