Transfer 5/25 for 5/26/04

[oneyoungbuck]

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I went 100% G on Monday so I missed the rally yesterday, Damn! But I look good so far today. My question is this, Do you, in your opinion, feel someone at my age, 35, should be moving my funds so much?

 

[smine]

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I left 15% in I and even a small amount in F. Apparently bonds and international are holding their own despite terriorist concerns. Tom, have you seen

cbsmarketwatch.com

I found it while looking around for more international news. You'd be interested to read Do seasonality-timing systems work as well for stock markets around the world as they do in the United States?

 

[tsptalk]

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I went 100% G on Monday so I missed the rally yesterday, Damn! But I look good so far today. My question is this, Do you, in your opinion, feel someone at my age, 35, should be moving my funds so much?

oyb -
I don't recommend moving in and out of funds to everyone. I follow this stuff pretty closely because I enjoy it. If someone doesn't really like to keep on top of the marketthey would probably be better off picking an allocation and letting it ride.

How aggressive or conservative you get depends on your comfort level and your current situation. Hopefully in the long run, my compounded return willbeat the averages ofsomeone who just buys and holds, makingit a worthwhile endeavor.

I'm curious why you went 100% G Monday. Was there a specific reason, i.e.: just a hunch, got nervous,something you read,etc.?

Thanks!
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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smine wrote:

Tom, have you seen

cbsmarketwatch.com

I found it while looking around for more international news. You'd be interested to read Do seasonality-timing systems work as well for stock markets around the world as they do in the United States?

Thanks smine. I've heard aboutthat. It would be a good strategy for someone who doesn't want to make many moves. Once in the fall, and once in the spring. Here's the article for anyone else interested.

 

[oneyoungbuck]

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The market was down Monday, there was another bombing in Iraq, there were a few price indexes coming out this week, I get the impression that makes the market nervous, and mostly it was a hunch. That is because I am very interested in watching my money like yourself. If I dont have to lose any of it then I should do the best I can to make more of it. Your site has opened a whole new world to me. I never thought I would like to watch the stock market on a daily basis. I also understand that you cant win every day, just do the best you can and educate yourself. Your site has done that for me.

 

[tsptalk]

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Thanks buck. I have also learned a lot since I started the site. We really needed a site like this to share ideas.

 

[Rolo]

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tsptalk wrote:

smine wrote:

Tom, have you seen

cbsmarketwatch.com

I found it while looking around for more international news. You'd be interested to read Do seasonality-timing systems work as well for stock markets around the world as they do in the United States?

Thanks smine. I've heard aboutthat. It would be a good strategy for someone who doesn't want to make many moves. Once in the fall, and once in the spring. Here's the article for anyone else interested.

linkie no workie

 

[tsptalk]

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Boy, it's hard to please everyone . It should work now. (article)

 

[Rolo]

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hehe, That is interesting, thanks. The risk factor nearly halved. Wow.

So shall we more likely expect a drop/pullback in early June as a result of that? Will having read that alter anyone's thinking?

 

[tsptalk]

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In regard to the Halloween indicator, I think it could be a good guide for buy and holders. But if you look at it on a year by year basis rather than as a whole you will see that you could have missed some nice rallies or been in some big pullbacks. I still think that those of us who keep a close eye on things can go by what is happening whilekeeping that infoin the back of your mind when you make decisions.

I have been burned a few times this year already going by seasonal data, although the last couple have worked out OK.

So shall we more likely expect a drop/pullback in early June as a result of that?

:% I thought it was saying what I was saying, that the early part of the month was usually stronger than average. Why do you say a pullback in early June? Do you mean after the first few days?

 

[Rolo]

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Yes, to clarify: after the end-of-the-month swell (last few days in may + first few days in June)--much like the Dec/Jan swell, only not as huge.

--> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=228&forum_id=10&jump_to=1824

 

[tsptalk]

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Yes, then I'd agree. If we dorally through the first week in June, lightening up to 60 - 75% stocks may be the play.

Thanks!

 

[tsptalk]

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tsptalk wrote:

I saw the EAFE index was up almost 1% this morning :shock:. It gave mea bit of a queazy feeling. But then I saw the EFA quote (which is the EAFE index withconsideration given to what the dollar is doing) and it was down slightly.Shew! I feel better.

The I fund was down .02 today but I don't know exactly why. Not that I'm complaining since I was out of the fund, but the EAFE appeared to be up and the dollar was down slightly against the pound and euro. The only thing I can think of is this...

Since these EAFE index managershave to do a little "guessing" (click here for more info on that) when it comes to their quote because of the overnight trading, they may have overestimated yesterday'sAsian and Australian gains for last night. Today they may have had to readjust a bit.

Just a guess.
Tom

 

[Monique]

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I made a move with my funds today (before noon) and they said it will take 2 days to go in effect. I guess I will have to wait and see what happens!

 

[tsptalk]

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If you did it before noon eastern time Wednesday, it will be effective Thursday. I believe they say something like "It can take up to 2 business days" but you should be good in the morning since you met the deadline.

Now we just need the market to cooperate. :shock:

 

[Mr. Duke]

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Tom,

http://www.msci.com showed a 12.374 cent gained for the "I" today (.95% gain) pretty jacked up to show a two cents loss... EFA ticker symbol that should follow the fund did infact show a .18% loss.......Sounds to me like there are still crooks on Wall Street.

 

[tsptalk]

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Mr. Duke wrote:

Tom,

http://www.msci.com showed a 12.374 cent gained for the "I" today (.95% gain) pretty jacked up to show a two cents loss...avenues for complaints/questions?

No. I think it is a readjustment of yesterday's overestimated quote. msci.com showed .21% gain yesterday and we got a 1.33% gain.

 

[Mr. Duke]

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Tom,

I see your on...good ...I saw your initial comments.....understand but still believe is BS...anyway ...life goes on...Been busy fixin a vehicle and dealing with a friend who's not doing too good with cancer...got a month left. will continue with the updates ...just may not be too timely...got a question not sure if you can explain the following statement:

I sell only covered calls. Today I sold Aug $90 for $5.40, if ebay doesn't reach $90, I keep the stock and the $5.40. If it goes over $90, I have a $14 gain and the $5.40 - not bad.

 

[tsptalk]

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I sell only covered calls. Today I sold Aug $90 for $5.40, if ebay doesn't reach $90, I keep the stock and the $5.40. If it goes over $90, I have a $14 gain and the $5.40 - not bad.

These are way confusing. Covered calls are a way tolimit risk in stocks. That person owns the stock but sold calls (a call is an option betting ebay will go up).

If ebay goes down (stays under 90)he gets to keep the $5.40 he sold the calls for (5.40 each share in the options contract, usually 100), but he owns ebay at a lower price.

Since he sold the calls,if ebay goes up, he loses money on the call to whoever bought it, but he makes money on the ebay stock he owns.

He says he keeps the 5.40 if it goes over 90 butI don't get that part. I thought he would haveto pay the buyer of the call whatever the price is over 90. Say it closed at 98, I thought he'd have to pay the buyer $8.00.

 

[tsptalk]

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Basically a rising dollar is not good for the I fund and a falling dollar is. My belief is that today's drop was a last push down and it should rise again soon meaning the I fund may be held back. Today the I fund did well. Tomorrow I will be out of the I fund completely. This is a bet that the dollar will rise in the coming days or weeks, and that we are better off in the U.S. markets for a little while.

I wrote that the other day but it is not what we have seen. The dollar is not bouncing back like I thought it would. Instead it seems to have broken that uptrend channel. It would surprise me asthis is an indication of a weaker U.S. economy.

At this point it is probably getting oversold and may get a short term rally but the intermediate trend may be changing to the downside. This would HELP the I fund. If it breaks below 89.00 it is almost certain. But as I said, it may still need to rebound in the short term. Itappears to bedown again today. This is as of the close of 5/26...

Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com