Transfer 5/11 for 5/12/04

[tsptalk]

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I am inititating a transfer this morning to be effective Wednesday 5/12.

20% C, 30% S and 50% I fund. I am betting heavier on a rebound in theEAFE index anda pullback in the dollar.

I am still keeping an eye on this rebound's volume and follow through for signs of future action. We'll know more near the close.

 

[puertorico]

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:^I'm in:shock:

 

[GS083]

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I did my move yesterday 30 C 40 S 30 I.

 

[smine]

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Didn't hear in time. Oh well. I'm done 4K in 10 days. Bummer.

 

[Guest]

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I stayed locked at 25% across theses funds G/C/S/I. Was prepared to buy more if market was down. But since we got the bounce I will keep the 25% G for now. Hope the bounce doesn't lose any stream for tomorrow.

 

[tsptalk]

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Cisco's earnings report due out shortly should set the tone for tomorrow. If we are still in a 'good news is bad news' and 'bad news is bad news' situation there isn't much of a bright side. I just hope a good report will be greeted for what it is, that is earnings are rising and that doesn't necessarily mean inflation.

Volume was on the light side. Not what you normally like to see in a reversal. Maybe a good report from Cisco will lure more buyers tomorrow.

 

[JerBer]

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Cisco Kid, was a friend of mine...

How many of you remember that song? Now you're showing your ages!

JerBer

 

[tsptalk]

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War, was it?

 

[tsptalk]

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Cisco beats earnings and sales estimates but something must have been said to upset traders as the stock is down 2% in after hours trading...

Or maybe we are back to good news is bad news :*

 

[puertorico]

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what next ?

may a run to G I'm not a bullet proof

 

[Guest]

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Well, I just took an additional 5% position in the C/S/I...still trying to dollar cost average. I am a whopping 90% exposed to the equities...10% in G. I 'm obviously in for the long bounce or rally. No time to be skiddish now.

 

[k2ds]

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Well we are bleeding again. I'm down over 9k in the week.

But i'm in too deep to run for cover now. just have to ride it out and pray a lot!!

Sitting 50 C 50 I for now.

 

[tsptalk]

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This is a amazing. Again I'm like a deer caught in the headlights. My indicators say one thing, the market is saying another.

One thing I do know. If I jump outnow we will surely get a rebound o Like in January, my indicators appear to beearly. I just don't see a reason to sell other than that the market is doing poorly (which isn't a bad reason) But I don't like to sell fear. I buyit. Interest rate hikes should not destroy a strong economy or the market.

The only positive (less negative) thing to talk about is that the 50% I have in the I fund is softening the blow some so far

 

[Cortez]

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I believe the "good news is bad" syndrome affecting the markets is a symptom of an addiction to liquidity as if the market is a heroin addict. The rush of liquidity through the veins of the market by way of Bernanke's printing press, Greenspan's Fed fund rate, the federal deficit and Bush's tax cuts was the fuelfor the market run up of 2003. Although this manipulation is not overt as in currency markets, these efforts to rev up the economy have supercharged the markets. Whether a company produces good earnings only establishes its place among stocks in the market. The strong stocks are on the top of the wave and the weak stocks at the bottom. Federal policy, however, has the powerful effect of the tides. As the Fed tightens it monetary policies, the withdrawals are sure to come to the markets and remain for a considerable period. I'm looking for one more bounce to get out of stocks and go G Fund until circumstances change.

 

[tsptalk]

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Catching a bounce here.

Good post by the way Cortez.

 

[ralphniz]

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Tom said

"One thing I do know. If I jump outnow we will surely get a rebound o"

Tom - If you want to jump out now, you have my encouragement. I could use the rebound. lol.

Ralph

 

[smine]

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That's funny, Ralph! Right however, if we get out now we really lose by selling low. Maybe tomorrow will be better.

 

[tsptalk]

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:l!!

 

[tsptalk]

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Want to see what areversal looks like? We ran out of sellers at about 2 PM. I'd love to know what the bullish/bearish sentiment was at the time. We won't know for sure because I believe the Wednesday survey is taken at the close on Wednesday's, after the rebound was in full swing...

That's about a 200 point rally from low to high. Volume picked up also. Now we need to see some follow through. I doubt we go straight up as there is a lot of overhead resistance to get through before we are out of the water. But this was a nice start.

 

[smine]

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What's the funny little spike of international (EFA) at about 2:15pm? May be the leading time start of the upswing to the stocks? Interesting.