TopNotch Account Talk

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What a week. Got really lucky with my IFT move this week and ended up on the top ten list for TSP talk! Really cool a first for me. I think we were for sure due for a little break after markets have been up up up. Hoping to get back in around the 2% mark but with 1% gone already not sure if I will get caught not having any more moves for the month. Really happy to still have over 3% for the month that is a great gain for me. Video and screen shot below. Hope this virus thing doesn't take a hit on markets


picture one.JPG

Number #9! :D

Currently 100% F
IFT's left for JAN 0
Yearly return 2.57% (auto-tracker) 3.23% (my tracker)
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IFT moves play out well for the first month. Ended up number three on the site. That is a first for me. With a swing move it is never good unless you can get back in at the right time and with markets in the negative I want back in soon. Want to ensure I hold my gains and stay above the funds for the year if possible. I am looking for some pull back targets of 3155 for the S&P 500 which would be about another 1% off of the markets. With China's market opening for the first time after the lunar new year and Friday sell and the virus news of late. I am thinking we are in for at least some down days early next week. I am hoping for Wednesday but will be watching the markets closely before celebrating my swing move. Historically, after a big virus scare markets are higher 6 months to 1 year. Enjoy the Video!


TSP.JPG

Currently 100% F
IFT's left for February 2
Yearly return 3.20% (auto) 3.87% (my tracker)
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Well. Missed those first two days in Feb. What a rally! I was able to stay on top of the market/TSP funds but not by much. Markets are giving a mixed signals right now and with only one move left. I don't feel ready to make it with two weeks remaining. I would say markets can't go much higher in a month but looking in the rear-view mirror (jan of last year) they for sure can! Here is my weekly video.


Currently 50% C and 50% S
IFT's left for February 1
Yearly return 5.16% (auto) 5.83% (my tracker)
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Hoping this little pull back last longer than a week unlike the last one. I am out of moves for FEB.. 0.0 We will see if it plays out. I was annoyed to have to leave a little in the C and S but would like to migrate risk but don't want to miss out on gain. I also want to stay ahead of the markets. I don't expect more than a 2% to 3% pull back. We will see!



Currently 10% C and 20% S 70% F
IFT's left for February 0
Yearly return 5.14% (auto) 5.82% (my tracker)
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TopNotch said:
I am out of moves for FEB..

Currently 10% C and 20% S 70% F
IFT's left for February 0
Yearly return 5.14% (auto) 5.82% (my tracker)
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Click to expand...

Not sure if you knew, but you can still move money to the G-fund despite using your two IFTs already. Anything that only increases the G-fund would be legit.

Examples:

IFT to:

100% G fund - legit

30% G, 70% F - legit

50% G, 10%C, 10% S, 30% F - legit

As long as only the G-fund is increasing. All the other are decreasing.
 
Indeed. Tracking that. About G fund moves and HOLY smokes. Probably good I was out of moves or I would or tried to get back into stock funds quicker. On the tech side of things still no entry points. I don't care though. I will take what I can get at this point and stocks are at a great buying point. I missed the buying point beginning of feb which stocks moved close to 4% in two days.... And now over 13% in 6 days. There is some nasty economic data coming out on Monday might wait for that to pass. I also want to start buying back in slowly once the 2 hour or the 4 hour chart PPO crosses the moving avg. Weekly video WILL follow for this week. If I get back in soon and markets stay where they are or lower it will be one of the best swing moves of my TSP career.... granted of course markets go back up again. Haha.
 
Well. What a week. I was expecting a 2% to 4% pullback... not this... It has been a roller coaster this past week. Have you been on the ride? Or watching it on the side? I have been watching/on the side in the F and G since the 18th-21st. I didn't take much of a hit, some luck there for sure some technical help too. Next month is a new month with new moves! I plan on getting back in soon! Up 5% for the year. Beating all funds currently. Had to use the rare third move this month to get some of the funds to G. We will see what the weekend news brings before getting back in. I have a pattern of getting out at a decent time but never getting back in at a good time. Enjoy the video.


Currently 70% F 30% G
IFT's left for March 2
Yearly return 4.11% (auto-tracker) 5.76% (my tracker)
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What a week. Bottom line up front TopNotch expects a bottom some time from next week to mid-April with price/stock increasing after the virus news starts to slow down. The bottom can be anywhere from another 3% to 5% where we closed on Friday and I expect a retest of the lows based off past data. Long term charts look really good so far and long term gains for sure to come. TopNotch feels really good with the prices we bought in at this last week. Check out the video for more!


Currently 50% C 50% S
IFT's left for March 1
Yearly return 2.60% (auto-tracker) 4.16% (my tracker)
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You are correct Tom. Yes COB on the 3rd. ;) I will try and be more clear about that in my video's good point.

No one can ever know a bottom or a top and I tend to call them right to get out but fail to get back at the right time. Thank goodness I was out of moves in Feb or I would of gotten in too soon. I like to get about 2% on markets for a swing and this time got way more. Very happy with the move and will be holding for some time as we take the up's and downs in the stock market storm. The discount we got even though it wasn't the bottom was pretty good. Love your commentary btw. You are one of my favs for markets and I enjoy seeing the way you think. Maybe someday when I make a bit more I might become a TSPplus subscriber! :D Pictures and charts below to show my moves.

TSP swing move.jpg

topnotch tsp talk.jpg

ITF1.JPG

ITF2.JPG

IFT3.JPG

Even though it wasn't the bottom still very happy where I sit today and am ahead of our stock funds. I think my tracker is a little off due to missing the cut off times by a day (thanks for adding the extra ten mins that is very helpful for a trader that makes moves close to the noon bell! :D), and due to new contributions that come in on the 1st of the month since I can't add those to the auto tracker if they go into a different fund based off my allocation on the auto tracker. Example being 100% C on the auto. New month and new funds go into 100% F I can't move the auto tracker to reflect that without burning up a move so I can't change it till I make my first move for the month. Meaning the funds and my gains for the year will be off. You can see that above in the screen shots as I can't reflect the 3% of the new money coming in until I make my first move for the month. As I get more and more in TSP it will affect this less and less. Also another reason I include both my tracker and the TSP auto tracker in my posts. I am also always open to taking screen shots of my TSP account and my tracker showing I am honest 100% of the time.

Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for march 1
Yearly return -2.07% (auto-tracker) -0.58% (my tracker)
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Last edited:
Well. That was an interesting week. I was playing for a correction and got a bear instead. How do I focus on how to do things for the future? Time to to get out the bear handbook. Been a while! Down about 9% for the year and still beating most the TSP funds. With snapback rallies, I think we got some great opportunities! Though buying back in a little early we still own way more shares than we did in feb and that is a WIN! Crazy how I always jump in too late and the one time I jump too early I get about an -8% lost in a month! Still happy to own more shares and heck I am 28 just on mile two of this race lots of time to make it up. Looking to probably buy and hold for awhile so I don't end up on the wrong side of [FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]volatile markets with only two moves a month. I am thinking of increasing new TSP funds coming in during this down time. Any thoughts out there from bear veterans? :D This is my first bear market.

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Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for march 1
Yearly return -9.84% (auto-tracker) -8.47% (my tracker)
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Been a crazy month. The rebound this week is what TopNotch was waiting for. If you missed this week. You likely missed one of the best weeks in years. I have never seen a week that big in my investing lifetime with TSP. With this rebound for those of us in stock funds, the questions is where to turn next. I don't think we will see the V bottom we did in 2019. I think it is very important to play the short term tech charts during this time. I don't think a retest of the lows is out of the question. With the virus low in. What will the economic low be when the data starts to come in? Will that prove to be the retest? Only time will tell but I am very much more in bearish mode than I was a month ago. It is important to stay ahead of markets and not be on the wrong side of these massive counter rally. By careful decisions I hope to be successful. Only down 5% for the year and feel pretty good to being green by the end of this year. Long ways to go and time to roll up them sleeves and get to work. Enjoy the video!


Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for April 2
Yearly return -7.14% (auto-tracker) -5.61% (my tracker)
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I guess I spoke too soon. What are markets doing! This as never happened in my investor lifetime. Another huge week for the TSP funds. With this week it brought TOPNOTCH to beating all TSP funds except one. I am lagging the F fund by about 1% and we are up and in the green for the year. What a ride. How long should we stay on this thing before it decides to go back down. When do we start to take profits? What are your thoughts? Enjoy the video.


Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for June 2
Yearly return 1.74%% (auto-tracker) 3.45% (my tracker)
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Quick post before the new week. Only one question burning in everyone's mind V or W recovery?


Currently 25% S 25% C 50% G
IFT's left for June 1
Yearly return: -3.83% (auto) N/A (my tracker)
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Rod that would be interesting. I am hoping for some chugging and then markets to continue the climb? As always take one day at a time. Weekly charts for the one's I track are at an interesting point and I am looking forward to the next two weeks for direction. Weekly video is out.


Currently 40% C and 60% S
IFT's left for July 1
Yearly return 1.19%% (auto) 1.35% (my tracker)
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Still ahead of the stock funds this week but what a roller coaster of a week. Really feeling the only two moves per month. Also getting the end of the day pricing is hurting me more this year than any other year. Happy where I am at but markets need to pick a direction and go with it.

Currently 100% G
IFT's left for July 0
Yearly return 2.69% (auto-tracker) 2.82% (my tracker)
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Here we are in the middle of August and we are talking about possibly all time highs? How did that happen? Pretty important to always pay attention to markets. I thought the recovery would of taken a year at least. My long term charts still didn't have a positive vibe till last week so my 4% gain on the C fund disappeared as I decided to mitigate risk and ensure to not lose anything that I had gained while ahead of markets. It cost me a little but overall very happy of where I sit and still above the S and I funds for the year. Where do you think market will go from here?

Currently 40% C 60% S
IFT's left for August 1
Yearly return 2.73% (auto-tracker) 4.97% (my tracker)
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I am 100S and am not seeing any indicators (other than the news) that says it is time to pull it out. I am new at this game but learning from everyone on this site. 7/10 of top 10 on Autotracker are in (although MRJ jumped out on FRI), VIX is low, Coolhand points out NAAIM is at a high (Smart money?), BQUAT charts show midterm channel still appears to be intact - although upward slope is less and stochastics dipped below 80?, TSPTalk survey is bullish, moving averages provide support. I am looking for the signs and resisting the gut instinct that says this just can't last with everything going on in the world...
 
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