TopNotch Account Talk

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Tom.... sometimes you really crack me up. Lol.

"For those who follow this sort of thing, there was a full moon last night. For what it's worth, sentimentrader.com tells us, "after all five full moons in July over the past 20 years, if the S&P was at or near a high, it fell over the next 1 or 2 months.""
 
It probably has more to do with earnings season, but some folks are really into that, and there are several websites dedicated to it. I'm a little surprised sentimentrader.com mentioned it, but hey, any clues help. :)
 
Well well what a month it has been. TopNotch ended up outperforming all TSP funds for the month of July by just a hair. Currently sitting 100% G and thankful TopNotch stayed there for this first week in August with a lot of market action. Though the move was a little too soon you never get it 100% right. Currently up on markets about 1% based off this move. Please see my video for charts and more info. Any advice or comments welcome! :D


Currently 100% G
IFT's left for August 2
Yearly return 10.75% (auto-tracker missed a move) 15.69% (my tracker)
-Top
 
Moved to 50% S and 50% C.... The month of August forced TopNotch hand early this month. Never like being out of moves this early in the month but when charts move they move. We have had a lot of ups and downs lately. Who will win this never ending war of the bulls and bears? My weekly video is out. Even with no moves left TopNotch can always move to the G at anytime. Enjoy!



Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for August 0
Yearly return 11.25% (auto-tracker missed a move) 16.31% (my tracker)
-Top
 
Well it had to be done moved to G for the third move this month. Very rare that TopNotch moves so much in a month and this will limit any moves for the rest of the month but it was sure nice to avoid the 2% + plunge on Friday and with tweets going on after the bell I don't expect much of a rebound on Monday. Weekly video is out! TopNotch is now outperforming or beating the market for every fund in the TSP.



Currently 100% G
IFT's left for August 0
Yearly return off (auto) 17.42% (my tracker)
-Top
 
TopNotch, the Autotracker is a way to verify that a member actually made the call. It was created years ago because a few made calls (IFTs) after the fact, repeatedly, as you do, and have done before, in this thread.

The Autotracker adds credibility to a members trading abilities. And at the same time, it may expose (or silence) fakes.

Any form of posting IFTs before or nearly at the deadline to some verifiable, time-stamped, forum (twitter, etc.) works. I checked your youtube page and didn't see any such real-time post corresponding to your latest assertion here. (I don't think youtube puts a time-stamp on videos anyway.?)

We've all forgotten to update the Autotracker, every now and then, but we live with that result, just live you would have to do with our real accounts--if we forget. Sometimes, it's for the best; sometimes for the worse; but we don't get to have it both ways, all the time.

If you truly are a top notch trader, consider setting multiple alarms to remind you, daily, to post your IFTs in case you have one that day. If you don't have an IFT that day, just turn off the alarm when it goes off.

Just thought you should know.
 
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Not the way I would have put it, but we can't have you telling everyone how well you timed it when your Autotracker is not confirming these moves. There's been many here before trying to do that, and that is how / why the Autotracker came about... to verify the claims. You're not really helping anybody by telling us on a Saturday that you sold stocks on Thursday - and it's not posted in your autotracker account.

I appreciate that you give credit to our site when you show my commentary, and your intentions seem good, but without verifying your IFT's in the autotracker I'm afraid we can't have you promote your videos here anymore. It's up to you.

Thanks
 
That's fair. And I will continue to use the auto tracker. I make my moves very close to noon due to using the 4 hour charts. Often times I can even miss the TSP deadline due to 12 noon being 6 am my time. Not an excuse and I understand your guys concern and will try to be better about the auto tracker. I enjoy the community on this site and the information and want to continue to use it. I am willing to follow all rules. I have posted my time stamps below to verify my moves. And have updated my auto tracker for creditably purposes.

TSP Website
TSP website.JPG


YouTube Channel
Youtube.JPG

Facebook 5:36 am Hawaii-Aleutian ST 11:36 EST.
facebook.JPG

Twitter
twitter.JPG


Often times I have to make my move close to noon and try to get it posted to all these sources in a decent time for the TopNotch stuff. Being 6am and not a morning person I do make mistakes when trying to update all sources. Please note I do not try and time the market I am just a trader like anyone else and I use this site to get insight from other members and build on my knowledge of trading. I would ask others to give me advice on what I can improve since many members have been apart of the TSP far longer than me and hense the reason I update my thread. I don't post to have anyone follow my moves and do my videos for myself and to educate others on the TSP. I state in the end of my video's that they are for education only. Education for not only other members but for myself. I have learned so much from others since doing the videos as others often find things I can improve on. One example being my tracker is based off simple interest not compound interest (A mistake I am still trying to figure out the formula for).

Thanks so much for allowing me to be here and I really do enjoy it! I read Tom's comments daily and consider it quite a creditable source of information compared to a lot of the other stuff out on the web. I know in a few Facebook TSP groups I am a part of (big ones) also use this site as one of the few for creditable information on the TSP. If there is anything else I can do let me know and I will do it. Thanks.

Currently 100% G
IFT's left for August 0
Yearly return 9.56% (auto) 17.42% (my tracker)
-Top
 
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If your a TSP investor with only two moves a month this chart is a complete nightmare haha. Let's hope for more of a trend in the upcoming months. Crazy how it is like a ping pong ball bouncing back and forth. Question is which way will it bounce out?

o my.JPG

-Top
 
Stocks were all over the place this past month. As a TSP investor it can be hard with only two moves a month. Just thankful that I had a positive month. August is in the books! Weekly video posted.




Currently 100% G
IFT's left for September 2
Yearly return 10.67% (auto) 17.47% (my tracker)
-Top​
 
Been busy working but the markets never quit! We have had quite an Oct/Nov and missed my first big dip move which put me behind equities for the year. It is never over until 31th of December but that gives me limited time and usually 4th quarter we like to try and hang onto what we have worked for all year. More in the video!


Currently 50% C 50% S
IFT's left for Nov 2
Yearly return 09.43% (auto) 18.67% (my tracker)
-Top
 
Not sure how much higher this market can go with the rally we have had in OCT and hitting these new highs. Happy thanksgiving everyone! Thankful for this site. Thinking about getting a subscription next year. But don't know which one to get. :D Weekly video is out.

Currently 100% G
IFT's left for Nov 1
Yearly return 10.24% (auto) 18.57% (my tracker)
-Top
 
Year End Review! Overall, TopNotch or myself really took a good hit in 4th quarter. I played it a little too cautious based on what happened the year prior and didn't make decisions based off my tech analysis. Funny how that works. 1st and 4th quarters of the year were really great and I was able to bounce back after the first quarter and even be ahead of the TSP funds in august. But that last quarter really threw me for a loop. Good learning points and I hope to get better and better as the years go on. This is the 4th year now that I have not beat Equity Funds and I am thinking of maybe just a buy and hold strat as life gets busy with job/family. But for now I will continue the good fight and try and take down the C, S, and I for 2020. Hope you guys did well with 2019 really was a great year to be in the funds.

My new years resolution? Stay on top of that auto tracker! :D


Currently 100% F
IFT's left for Jan 2
Yearly return 2019 final 9.18% (auto) 17.39% (my tracker)
2020- 0.54% (auto) 0.51% (my tracker)
-Top
 
Another year here we come! Election year! Bound to be some fireworks. Really enjoyed the CiovaccoCapital video this week. They made some great points about B&H vs managing your account. I really like to hold and capture as much gain as I can while trying to mitigate market risks. That doesn't always mean I will beat the market or take home the best percentage but it gives me the peace of mind to not lose years and years of gains with buy and hold while waiting for the market to come back. Being so young I probably should just be a buy and hold but enjoy looking at the markets on a daily/weekly basis. Overall for the year TopNotch outperformed CiovaccoCapital and I feel pretty good about that. I used some of their points in this weeks video and give them full credit for some of the points they make. Hoping to continue what I have so far this year got the S and I fund beat so far just have to do it for another 52 weeks. Lol. As always missed my auto-track move for jan... so typical for me lol amazed at the one day difference.


Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for JAN 1
Yearly return 0.29% (auto-tracker) 0.94% (my tracker)
-Top
 
Question? For Intrepid Timer if we subscribe does he reveal his ETF strat as well as TSP? AKA UPRO and TLT moves? Or does he just go over his TSP?
 
Well really thought I saw a move coming this last week but no such luck and glad to of stayed the course. TSP funds continue to rise in this crazy market. This is the third year in a row with strong gains right out of the gate of the new year. 2018 we saw a quick 10% drop but 2019 we saw funds continue to ride the trend for some time. What will happen in 2020! Trends are sometimes slow but they look great right now and last year I jumped the gun and missed out. This year I will stick to the trends even if that means losing a little. Sitting at over 3% for this month and I am pretty happy with that.


Currently 50% S 50% C
IFT's left for JAN 1
Yearly return 2.46% (auto-tracker) 3.13% (my tracker)
-Top
 
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