TopNotch Account Talk

[TopNotch]

Thanks all, I could care less about followers or anything like that. Here to learn and to post what I am doing with my TSP. I realize there is a lot of more experienced folks out there and hopefully, they may drop some advice here or there. If not that is fine. If I trainwreck well I guess I live, and I learn (good thing I am young and have time to learn from my mistakes). No one is perfect when it comes to markets, and at the end of the day, we are all in it together trying to achieve the same thing.
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[userque]

Thanks all, I could care less about followers or anything like that. Here to learn and to post what I am doing with my TSP. I realize there is a lot of more experienced folks out there and hopefully, they may drop some advice here or there. If not that is fine. If I trainwreck well I guess I live, and I learn (good thing I am young and have time to learn from my mistakes). No one is perfect when it comes to markets, and at the end of the day, we are all in it together trying to achieve the same thing.
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Just in case I was misunderstood: I didn't mean to suggest that you're a train wreck in the making.

You're purported returns so far this year are solid.

Good luck TopNotch, and do keep us posted.

 

[TopNotch]

I notice Tom likes to talk about copper a bit. Teaching moment for me. How does the price of copper affect the markets or TSP funds? Thanks.

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[nnuut]

All Electronics need Copper!

 

[tsptalk]

I notice Tom likes to talk about copper a bit. Teaching moment for me. How does the price of copper affect the markets or TSP funds? Thanks.

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Higher demand for copper generally is a good sign for the economy, although it is obviously a global commodity so the recent drop may have more to do with China's slowing economy than the U.S. If the price is falling that either supply is high or demand is low, and the latter would be a concern for stocks.

 

[userque]

All Electronics need Copper!

More so, plumbing and electrical conductors.

 

[PessOptimist]

A lot of copper in the form of wiring or bus bar is used in electrical substations for protection, system control and data acquisition. Electrical substations and communications facilities usually have a back up DC battery system that has a lot of copper bus and wiring involved. Wind energy and solar power stations use a lot of copper. Copper is used extensively in electronic circuit boards and the automotive industry. That is why Tom watches copper.
There is also a smaller industry producing copper health items and clothing. No proof any of them actually have any copper in them. Might be copper colored threads

PO

 

[Cactus]

And don't forget that 100 coppers make a dollar!

Well, unfortunately that is no longer true. Since 1982 our pennies are mainly zinc. We didn't want people melting down pennies because the metal is worth more than the coin.

 

[TopNotch]

Higher demand for copper generally is a good sign for the economy, although it is obviously a global commodity so the recent drop may have more to do with China's slowing economy than the U.S. If the price is falling that either supply is high or demand is low, and the latter would be a concern for stocks.

Okay, yes I think it has to do more with China's slowing economy than anything else. That is a great point. Thanks.
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[Valkyrie]

And don't forget that 100 coppers make a dollar!

Well, unfortunately that is no longer true. Since 1982 our pennies are mainly zinc. We didn't want people melting down pennies because the metal is worth more than the coin.

yep '82 was transition yr, early '82 were still 0.950 copper. I save all '81 and older I come across. always worth more than 0.01 in the coin market.

 

[TopNotch]

Well, I will keep that in mind if I am looking to melt down some copper. Lol.

Markets were in the green this week. Nothing too exciting with some norm 2018 up's and downs. Remaining all in on the S fund came to bite me in the ass this week as the C fund was the leader. Unlike earlier this year when I was diversified 50% C and 50% S which ended up me getting behind the S Fund. Now the opposite is true as the C fund creeps up on S. From a chart perspective both C and S are looking very good on the two-day setting weekly still not so much. Earning season is upon us, and with only 5 percent of S&P 500 companies already posting earnings gains of over 16 percent thus far. I remain where I am at though I am considering some diversification with C and S funds.

I fund also looks good on the two-day charts but being below the moving averages. I don't want to touch it just yet. It is on my radar though and might get a little 10% if it continues the way it has.

Currently 100% S
ITF's left for JULY 1
Yearly return 6.79% TSP 7.63% TSP (without fees)
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[TopNotch]

Another green week for the charts if you were in equity funds. Some of the things I noticed were the C fund broke over its 2800 line. We will see if it can continue an upward trend. Weekly charts support this, but you never know with markets... ever! The trading ranges for the S fund and F Fund seem super tight right now and the S Fund weekly still have not turned around like the C fund. That does not make me confident. I was really hoping for a turn around this week. The I Fund decline finally gave some breathing room, I hope to see this fund continue up until the high 68 dollar range and in my own opinion might be a good place to park funds until the S fund can show stronger support for an upward gain. Still can't believe that markets put on over 3% in the first short trading week of July. That just goes to show you that markets can do anything and no one can predict what they will do.

As for strategy, I only have one ITF left for the month, and it will be 24th before any funds could move so it is a good time to try and find the best fund. While the C fund looks good and the S fund is lacking support. That I fund has a good weekly chart now and is the only chart where the 4 hour (very short-term chart) looks good. With only looking for a week or two trade probability points to a good few weeks for the I fund before it hits resistance and continues its downtrend. Or as Tom's charts point out, it is already hitting that resistance. If that is the case, then I guess my gamble on the I fund won't pan out but I don't normally like to follow a crowd. This either leads to losses or good gains. Time will tell for this short I fund ITF trade. If Charts move to no longer support the current short trend. I will ITF it to the G until next month.


Currently 100% I
ITF's left for JULY 0
Yearly return 7.11% TSP 7.93% TSP (without fees)
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[TopNotch]

The I Fund did quite well for this week. Turned out to be a good one week ITF as this fund outperformed both C and S this week. Not to mention didn't take the S fund losses. Question is though how long can this I fund hold out for... Charts still look good, but I don't want to hold my breath. If it gets the 69.00 dollar share range, I think we could see some severe resistance. I don't have any good news to report on S and with the earnings coming to an end next week. I am not sure how long this C rally will last. It has been a great month for both C and S, but some consolidation might be needed before continuing the current uptrends. The two biggest things I am interested in is can the C fund stay above 2800 line? And will the S Fund break down from its current trend line with a cup and handle formation??? That would be surprising, markets will do and can do anything. Please keep in mind, I am just a regular investor like you and not a professional. With that in mind, I am now as of Friday's close ahead of all TSP funds including all Lifecycles, C, S, F, and I. Now we have a long way to go. But it does feel good to be ahead of the markets even if it's only for a week. Hopefully, I can maintain that for the rest of the year. It's not easy to do so you can bet your boots I will bring it up every time I am ahead.

As for strategy, I am out of ITF's for the month. I don't think the I fund rally can last long... Though, I have chart support. I will stay put until I see some weakness or might move G just to use a July move instead of an Aug move. C and S are headed in opposite directions on the charts, but we did see some 2-day weakness in C on the two-day charts. I don't like that and could point to some consolidation after earning season or some profit-taking. Anyways G looks like a proper course of action before the end of the month for a very short term till markets can show some substantial evidence to continue the upward climb, but I am not moving there just yet. With the end of the month near Monday will be the last day for any July G moves.

Currently 100% I
ITF's left for JULY 0
Yearly return 8.77% TSP 9.50% TSP (without fees)
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[TopNotch]

I fund ITF did quite well and was able to move back into the C and S just in time for the month. That being said it puts me down an ITF for this month so a little nervous about that. Below shows my move and what it did for me.



As you can see I moved from the S fund 100% to the I fund on 23 of July. I then moved back to the S and C fund on the first. This resulted in me missing the -1.47% dip in the S fund and gaining about 0.77% in the I fund. So not a bad move. Knowing the I wasn't doing too well I knew a short trade would be best but I have to say that was lucky getting such a good return on the funds. You will NEVER catch the top or the bottom of a swing trade but I felt pretty good about this one. I plan on remaining 66% C and 33% S for some time now as C looks better than S. Tom mentioned a gap with the C fund. Unlike him, I don't think we will see the C come back to fill it with it over that 280.00 dollar line acting as support I hope. We will see. Also with so many sites, I think I might stick to monthly updates from now on since well it takes time to write a bit on each place so I will call this my July update.

Currently 66% C 33% S
ITF's left for AUGUST 1
Yearly return 8.63% TSP 9.82% TSP (without fees)
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[TopNotch]

Stocks did great for August! Being in the C and S funds were the place to be. Made over 3.00% for the month. No complaints! Stocks have broken into some high ranges and there are some gaps to be filled. That being said I only lag the S fund by a little bit. Made a move to the right before the end of the month to try and get ahead of the S on a dip. I doubt I will be in G long will chart looking so good. We will see if I can't make something out of it.

Currently 100% G (short-term move)
ITF's left for September 2
Yearly return 12.34% TSP
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[maui21ice]

August definitely did good to me. I was split 80%-C 10%-I and 10%-S, and got 2.99%. Not bad for a historically seasonal bad month for stocks. Let's double that in September.

 

[TopNotch]

Double! Haha. We will see September never seems to perform well. BUT then again neither does August and look at the results. Sitting G served me well the past few days. The problem I have always had is when to get back in. I think I am going to have to start getting back in after a certain % drop as I have gotten out at the right times this year it's just the getting back that I have not timed so well. As of today, I am beating that S fund finally. I want to beat it for the year so today or tomorrow may be a good time to think about dropping back in and putting it on auto-pilot till the end of the year. I am thinking this will be one of our last drops for the year. We will see though.
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[nasa1974]

Double! Haha. We will see September never seems to perform well. BUT then again neither does August and look at the results. Sitting G served me well the past few days. The problem I have always had is when to get back in. I think I am going to have to start getting back in after a certain % drop as I have gotten out at the right times this year it's just the getting back that I have not timed so well. As of today, I am beating that S fund finally. I want to beat it for the year so today or tomorrow may be a good time to think about dropping back in and putting it on auto-pilot till the end of the year. I am thinking this will be one of our last drops for the year. We will see though.
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I wish we had 3 or 4 IFT's then it wouldn't be such a problem deciding if we should stay in or get out.

 

[TopNotch]

2 keeps you disciplined.

8/28 the day I got out of the markets as of the close.

S&P 500 close: 2897

C: -0.65%,S: -1.01%




If you got out on the 29th you should see a bigger increase. 1% should be the mark to get back into the markets. With these numbers, it puts Topnotch ahead of all funds for the year. My biggest problem is never knowing when to get back into the market. I think a 1% drop should justify it. If you could do this just three times a year you would be 3% of all funds which is quite good. Waiting now for my chance to jump in and hoping I can get 1% or more... 0.0 we will see I usually miss it and get about half a percent...

Currently 100% G (short-term move)
ITF's left for September 2
Yearly return 12.34% TSP
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[TopNotch]

What a great 3rd quarter! Stocks were doing just great. Pulled off a wonderful Swing trade move for September putting my account above all TSP funds for the year! Good stuff. With some transition coming up I am planning to become a buy and holder for Q4 but I expect we are not out of the woods yet for stocks. Long-term charts still look great but the short term charts are still pretty weak no improvement from September. Still with moving to Hawaii this next quarter I won't have the time to watch the tech charts enough to make swing moves as they take time and research to get them right (see below ). Hopefully, I will be set up well enough by the end of November to catch the last part of the year until then I will stick in equities and hopefully remain above all TSP funds for the year. As that is the primary goal for me.

Swing move for September which I thought would last a few days took most of the month 0.0





Currently 100% S
ITF's left for October 2
Yearly return 12.75% TSP
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