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TiCKed Account Talk
- Thread starter TiCKed
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Getting spooked out
Ticked,
If an individual was prescient enough to get spooked out at the top in 2000 and moved the majority of bulk cash into the G fund, then what? Then sit for 3 years? If one were to continue the dollar cost averaging strategy all the way down into the 10/02 bottom the shares would be adding up at much lower prices, and all these shares sooth the level of experienced pain. Just believe that there is a tomorrow. Plan your strategy in advance. For example, most participants are currently hot on the S fund - I'm slowly in the process of easing my load in small caps, knowing full well that there is more to gain in that area - but it's all a sacrifice. You'll do fine.
Dennis
Ticked,
If an individual was prescient enough to get spooked out at the top in 2000 and moved the majority of bulk cash into the G fund, then what? Then sit for 3 years? If one were to continue the dollar cost averaging strategy all the way down into the 10/02 bottom the shares would be adding up at much lower prices, and all these shares sooth the level of experienced pain. Just believe that there is a tomorrow. Plan your strategy in advance. For example, most participants are currently hot on the S fund - I'm slowly in the process of easing my load in small caps, knowing full well that there is more to gain in that area - but it's all a sacrifice. You'll do fine.
Dennis
TiCKed
Member
Figured out what keeps me cool on a day like today.....
I have a spreadsheet that projects my total savings balance (TSP, Vanguard, Roth IRA, etc.), plotting monthly balances out to my minimum retirement age and beyond. It takes into account all programmed investment, and uses a rather conservative 7% per year appreciation.
The projected balance is VERY nice.
On top of that projection, I plot my current balance. The difference is a visual indication of how I'm doing.
Despite the crappy month, I'm well above my projection.
I'm still sleeping like a baby.
I have a spreadsheet that projects my total savings balance (TSP, Vanguard, Roth IRA, etc.), plotting monthly balances out to my minimum retirement age and beyond. It takes into account all programmed investment, and uses a rather conservative 7% per year appreciation.
The projected balance is VERY nice.
On top of that projection, I plot my current balance. The difference is a visual indication of how I'm doing.
Despite the crappy month, I'm well above my projection.
I'm still sleeping like a baby.
TiCKed said:
It's perception vs. reality. The perception is that when you are missing an up you feel like the only one and when you are suffering a down you are comforted by the fact the "everyone" is losing. I often feel this way myself. However the reality is in one example you are losing money and in the other you are not. So now which one is better?
Dave
<><
TiCKed
Member
Wheels said:
I'm going to respectfully disagree. I would contend that there isn't any difference between "losing money", and "losing appreciation". In the end, and in the absence of other influences, they are exactly the same. They are both losses, and can be easily quantified. They both constitute $$ that you won't get back, because those particular trading days are gone forever. (But, you can and will get very similar looking $$ back).
But with that said, we all know why we're here. We HOPE to use the ultra-safe G-Fund to miss some of the downs, and the other funds to catch most of the ups. If someone has the skills, it's a worthy endeavor. For me, I'm not sure it's worthy....but I'm still in the game in a small way.
_____________________
As I was told once, "There are only two prices that matter: The price you bought at, and the price you sold at. Everything in between is unimportant". I have 14 years of unimportant market moves ahead of me.
Last edited:
TiCKed
Member
End o' week wrap, 2/10/06:
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +19.02%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -12.35%
Midpoint (Something to shoot for?): +3.33%
My Baseline return, 2006: +2.54%
My Actual return, 2006: +2.67%
The longer I track this, the more I'm thinking the mid-point between Max and Min is a worthy goal to shoot for. (Not that I'm actually MEETING it.)
I've pretty much gone dormant. Haven't done an IFT since Mid-January, so my "lead" on my Baseline is a remnant from earlier days. But I haven't actually been at my Baseline allocation....my "fun money" has been in the C and S funds, just waiting for a breakout.
Several times I've thought of dropping back to safety, but each time stocks have dropped, and I'm just against selling low.
Still optimistic......
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +19.02%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -12.35%
Midpoint (Something to shoot for?): +3.33%
My Baseline return, 2006: +2.54%
My Actual return, 2006: +2.67%
The longer I track this, the more I'm thinking the mid-point between Max and Min is a worthy goal to shoot for. (Not that I'm actually MEETING it.
)I've pretty much gone dormant. Haven't done an IFT since Mid-January, so my "lead" on my Baseline is a remnant from earlier days. But I haven't actually been at my Baseline allocation....my "fun money" has been in the C and S funds, just waiting for a breakout.
Several times I've thought of dropping back to safety, but each time stocks have dropped, and I'm just against selling low.
Still optimistic......
TiCKed
Member
Finally....a GOOD day. Is it just another false move, only to be followed by profit taking? Who knows...but I'm heatened that we've never dropped down to December levels. 
But as much as I like a nice UP day, why couldn't it have waited a couple of days? I have an automatic deposit going into Vanguard at today's closing price.
Ya wins some, ya lose some.
But as much as I like a nice UP day, why couldn't it have waited a couple of days? I have an automatic deposit going into Vanguard at today's closing price.
Ya wins some, ya lose some.
Birchtree
Well-known member
No one ever rings a bell
Ticked,
There is a great deal happening from the technical side that may not be readily apparent if you are not aware of charts - and they are all pointing to bullish momentum on a broad front.
NYSE AD line found support at 20 ema and 10% index bounced off the zero line.
SPX MCO broke positive and above declining tops trend line.
SPX MCO components both above zero with positive configuration.
DOW MCO positive and broke January highs.
DOW MCO components both above zero with positive configuration.
NYSE AD volume found support at 50 ema, components both positive.
NYSE volume MCO with quadruple bottom.
NYSE MCO broke above the declining tops line from early January peak.
New 2006 high on DOW with MCO confirming.
SPX volume MCO decisively breaks declining top line and above late January peak.
Just a short example of the stuff that is happening under the usual radar. And IMHO all significantly bullish.
Ticked,
There is a great deal happening from the technical side that may not be readily apparent if you are not aware of charts - and they are all pointing to bullish momentum on a broad front.
NYSE AD line found support at 20 ema and 10% index bounced off the zero line.
SPX MCO broke positive and above declining tops trend line.
SPX MCO components both above zero with positive configuration.
DOW MCO positive and broke January highs.
DOW MCO components both above zero with positive configuration.
NYSE AD volume found support at 50 ema, components both positive.
NYSE volume MCO with quadruple bottom.
NYSE MCO broke above the declining tops line from early January peak.
New 2006 high on DOW with MCO confirming.
SPX volume MCO decisively breaks declining top line and above late January peak.
Just a short example of the stuff that is happening under the usual radar. And IMHO all significantly bullish.
TiCKed
Member
End o' week wrap, 2/17/06:
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +22.45%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -14.42%
Midpoint (Something to shoot for): +4.01%
My Baseline return, 2006: +3.57%
My Actual return, 2006: +3.66%
---
Didn't post it here, (was posted in tracking thread), but I moved "fun money" back into stocks as of COB today. I got cute on Wednesday and tried to play a short term peak. Turned out to be more than that.....I'm back in again and hoping for a run next week.
I should know by now that I'm not cute.
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +22.45%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -14.42%
Midpoint (Something to shoot for): +4.01%
My Baseline return, 2006: +3.57%
My Actual return, 2006: +3.66%
---
Didn't post it here, (was posted in tracking thread), but I moved "fun money" back into stocks as of COB today. I got cute on Wednesday and tried to play a short term peak. Turned out to be more than that.....I'm back in again and hoping for a run next week.
I should know by now that I'm not cute.
TiCKed
Member
End o' week wrap, 2/24/06:
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +25.67%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -15.02%
Midpoint: +5.32%
My Baseline return, 2006: +4.18%
My Actual return, 2006: +4.36%
---
I'm becoming less enthralled with the Midpoint as a personal target. This week it diverged from my holdings because of the I-Fund jump. Since I'm fully diversified, if a single fund outperforms, the Highest possible return surges, and I can't keep up.
I'll keep tracking. Something interesting, or at least entertaining, may emerge.
It's also entertaining to watch the Bulls and Bears take shots at each other here. It isn't USEFUL, mind you....but entertaining.
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +25.67%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -15.02%
Midpoint: +5.32%
My Baseline return, 2006: +4.18%
My Actual return, 2006: +4.36%
---
I'm becoming less enthralled with the Midpoint as a personal target. This week it diverged from my holdings because of the I-Fund jump. Since I'm fully diversified, if a single fund outperforms, the Highest possible return surges, and I can't keep up.
I'll keep tracking. Something interesting, or at least entertaining, may emerge.
It's also entertaining to watch the Bulls and Bears take shots at each other here. It isn't USEFUL, mind you....but entertaining.
TiCKed
Member
Hi....been gone for over a week....did I miss anything?
Was off on a business trip, trying to do good things for Uncle Sam. Couldn't do anything beyond checking the S&P close everyday, and hope for a turnaround. I'm stuck just riding it out, and now that we've fallen so far, I'm stuck with the feeling that I might be jumping off near the bottom if I move now.
Got a bounce on Friday, but the Shark doesn't seem too optimistic that it's THE turn yet.
Guess it's a good thing I'm used to "buy and hold", and the drops don't bother me....much. Still, I'd like to have been here, (and smart enough), to jump out this week. Guess I'll just hope for a move up soon.....
Tracking note: I see from the monthly tracker that the Milk-Man has been tracking me. Didn't know that! Problem is, he has me lower in performance than my own tracker shows....but I think I know why. I started the year Jan 1 with my ACTUAL percentages, taking into account contributions and gains for 2005. M_M no doubt has done the RIGHT thing, and used my last IFT which was very early in 2005. Anyway, I'll try to correct my tracker to adhere to the proper TSPTalk methodology. Don't want to appear to be padding my performance!
TiCKed
Was off on a business trip, trying to do good things for Uncle Sam. Couldn't do anything beyond checking the S&P close everyday, and hope for a turnaround. I'm stuck just riding it out, and now that we've fallen so far, I'm stuck with the feeling that I might be jumping off near the bottom if I move now.
Got a bounce on Friday, but the Shark doesn't seem too optimistic that it's THE turn yet.
Guess it's a good thing I'm used to "buy and hold", and the drops don't bother me....much. Still, I'd like to have been here, (and smart enough), to jump out this week. Guess I'll just hope for a move up soon.....
Tracking note: I see from the monthly tracker that the Milk-Man has been tracking me. Didn't know that! Problem is, he has me lower in performance than my own tracker shows....but I think I know why. I started the year Jan 1 with my ACTUAL percentages, taking into account contributions and gains for 2005. M_M no doubt has done the RIGHT thing, and used my last IFT which was very early in 2005. Anyway, I'll try to correct my tracker to adhere to the proper TSPTalk methodology. Don't want to appear to be padding my performance!
TiCKed
TiCKed
Member
TiCKed said:
Yes! I love it when a plan, (or in my case, lack of a plan), comes together!
TiCKed said:
Guess I don't know why....Can't get my numbers to equal the tracker total for me at end of February. In reality, it probably doesn't matter much since it was all of 0.04% difference. I'll stick with my numbers with the understanding that I may be slightly in error. Don't hold it against me....I'm really not trying to pull anything over on anyone.
Now....how long do I hold my diversified position? Unlike most here, I'll probably just watch for some fundamental change in the weather to determine when to back out and preserve my gains. Until then, let it ride!!! (Up, if possible.)
TiCKed
Member
End o' week wrap, 3/24/06:
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +39.80%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -20.86%
Midpoint: +9.47%
My Baseline return, 2006: +5.63%
My Actual return, 2006: +5.91%
---
Twas a nothing week....started at +5.91%, and ended with same. Like kissing your sister...but better than losing!
Will be interesting to see if anyone meets the "Midpoint" return come the end of the month. I've come to the conclusion it's a nothing calculation...which isn't surprising since it's based on two nothing calculations.
Lesson learned: Don't make plans when you're on vacation that Real Life won't allow you to complete.
That's what I did when I came up with my grand trading scheme, (if one can call it that). Turns out, I just don't have the time or inclination to follow through with my plan to closely follow the market, learn some technical analysis, and pursue a kick-a$$ yearly return.
Therefore, that "Actual" return will probably never get too far from my "Baseline" return. Just buying and holding.....Still keeping my eye out for that chance to miss a nasty drop, which is probably the most productive I can be as a trader.
Later! (And hoping for that Birchtree inspired bull run next week!)
Tom
Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +39.80%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -20.86%
Midpoint: +9.47%
My Baseline return, 2006: +5.63%
My Actual return, 2006: +5.91%
---
Twas a nothing week....started at +5.91%, and ended with same. Like kissing your sister...but better than losing!
Will be interesting to see if anyone meets the "Midpoint" return come the end of the month. I've come to the conclusion it's a nothing calculation...which isn't surprising since it's based on two nothing calculations.
Lesson learned: Don't make plans when you're on vacation that Real Life won't allow you to complete.
That's what I did when I came up with my grand trading scheme, (if one can call it that). Turns out, I just don't have the time or inclination to follow through with my plan to closely follow the market, learn some technical analysis, and pursue a kick-a$$ yearly return.
Therefore, that "Actual" return will probably never get too far from my "Baseline" return. Just buying and holding.....Still keeping my eye out for that chance to miss a nasty drop, which is probably the most productive I can be as a trader.
Later! (And hoping for that Birchtree inspired bull run next week!)
Tom
