TiCKed Account Talk

[TiCKed]

imported post

As planned last month, just changed to a 80/20 stock to bond allocation.

G12, F8, C40, S20, I20

Reasons?

- Was very stock heavy through last year, (to my benefit it turns out). 80/20 isa more sane allocation.

- Chatter on the business news sites that stocks could be tough through early next year.

- Bonds may have their day with a pause in raising interest rates. (My first forray into the F fund.)

Still not ready to do any "day trading", but I'll be watching for any signs that I should be more hands-on.

Tom

 

[TiCKed]

Stock blow through the roof on day one of 2006....
Ok.....who saw THAT coming?

Guess it might work out for me. Circumstances conspired to allow me to sell a bit at this peak, (if that's what it is).

On the other hand, I may have sold early in a run!?!

The very reason I try to keep a balanced portfolio....lack of a crystal ball.

 

[TiCKed]

Another good day...(15 minutes to go, but I'll assume).

But my reason for posting is this:

Has anyone used the tracker spreadsheet to calculate the theoretical BEST possible returns for 2005? i.e. what would the return be if someone had the perfect crystal ball, and was ALWAYS in the highest returning fund each day?

Alternately, what would the return be if one was in the lowest returning fund each day?

Might be interesting to know what the outer limits were....and if nobody has already done it, I'll give it a stab myself if I find time.

Guess: Probably +/-50% isn't out of line?


Tom

 

[TiCKed]

Well, let's just say I have some free time. (Use-or-lose week).

But I did my suggested calculation for 2005:

Max possible return: 252.63%
Min possible return: -69.71%

I attempted to attach the tracker file used to calculate it, but it exceeds the acceptable size. PM me your email address, and I'll send it. It makes a nice recap of 2005 since in includes all price histories.

(Biggest difficulty was extending the number of IFT's from 30 to 250. And I improved the calculation).

 

[TiCKed]

If anyone has been reading my account thread, (and that's open to debate ), they'd know I've been waffling about whether I should be even trying to be an "active" trader, or if a set allocation would be best for me. The classic risk/return debate. Until now, I've opted for a set allocation.

But I think I've come to a happy compromise....here's what I'm gonna try:

80% of my account will be placed into a set allocation. 80/20 stocks to bonds, in some logical percentage in each TSP fund.

The remaining 20% of my account will be my "fun money". Based on trends, news, analysis, or just on a whim, I'll feel free to move that 20% as I see fit.

I feel more comfortable with this method since I won't miss those unpredictable events (like this weeks trading!!), and I'll still have a chance to catch a wave now and then.

This may not be the best method if one is shooting for the stars....but it may allow me to add a percentage point or two at the end of the year. (Maybe )

Since a goal is probably a good thing to have, I will be looking to achieve a 2% higher return than my chosen 80/20 allocation would have produced with my entire account.

I'll be pondering the possibilities this weekend, and may make a move with my fun-money late Sunday if the mood strikes me. We can't stay high forever!

(CA time, and the fact that I'm not a morning person, will conspire to make morning moves unlikely. )

Tom

 

[nnuut]

Sounds like a plan to me. When you jump back and forth as I did last year it can go both ways. I paid the price and gained only around 4% for the year. Darn if I didn't miss almost every big rally by one day and catch the whipsaw on the drop. the last quarter of the year I did better but was GUNSHY and didn't get the big ones but made a steady gain. If I could have done that all year I probably would have ended up with around 10% but timing the market is almost impossible. A frog can fart in Guatemala and crash the market. If the longer trend (1 month) is steady down watch it! Don't try to wait it out, Jump out to the "G" or "F" if it looks good. Yes, I feel guarded going 100% stocks at this point. January 2003 and 2004 started with a BANG like this one then fell big time and recovered but that loss was a big one. Got my finger on the "G" button.
Like I say "newbie don't follow me"!!!!!

 

[TiCKed]

Well, Sunday has come and nearly gone, and I've decided to sit tight for now. The tea leaves aren't coming into focus just yet.

I thought about putting my "fun money" into the C, (protecting from drops in I, and getting away from the hot S), but decided to see what goes on in the morning. Assuming I get up when my alarm goes off, I can still move in the morning.

Hoping to make at least one UP move, or one drop avoidance move this year....Don't think it's today, though.

 

[TiCKed]

Made a move today....my hand was forced by unexpected business trip starting tomorrow through Friday. We're all wondering when the fall, (correction, profit taking....choose your term), will occur but I have to move now, or ride it out!

First, here's my "baseline" preferred allocation. (80/20 as planned, and modified slightly to make 80% of each a nice number):
G:12.5, F:7.5, C:40, S:20, I:20

Using my 80% stationary, 20% "Fun Money", that works out to
G:10, F:6, C:32, S:16, I:16, and "Fun Money":20

So, today's move is working on the assumptions that:
1) U.S. Market will correct sometime in the next 4 days.
2) International will continue to rise, or will drop less.

So my move, effective COB 1/10 is:
G:10, F:22, C:32, S:16, I:20

Let's see what happens!?!

Added: Put most in F since there's no chance of increase in G the rest of the week....Hoping for F move UP.

 

[TiCKed]

Well, back from my business trip, and my first "market timing" transfer wasn't exactly a blockbuster....but it has worked so far.

Baseline allocation: +3.36%
Actual allocation: +3.45%
(Through 1/13/06)
Frankly, I was probably saved by the +$0.03 uptick in F on Friday.

Now, the question is, "When do I swap back to my baseline?" Making one move doesn't exactly end the questions, does it?

I've got a couple days to think about it......

 

[TiCKed]

Moving to G:10, F:6, C:42, S:22, I:20 (COB 1/17)

Reasons?
1) Because last week indicated general strength in U.S. Market, blowing out my near term correction theory....unless you consider Thursday a correction
2) Earnings reports may push us higher
3) When I don't REALLY have a good feel for where we're headed, I'll default to stocks

#3 is important, (to me anyway). My opinion going into the year is that stocks will out perform bonds. Therefore, my default position really should be stocks....right? It pains me to sit on the sidelines and wish for a stock drop to let me in.

Finally, I find the technical analysis I read here very interesting....sell signals, buy signals, moving averages, etc. Problem is, I don't have any experience with them, and have no reason to trust them. Something I should look into rather than being a "gut feeling" trader.

Good luck all!

 

[TiCKed]

Good News!!

I come with Good News!!

If your crystal ball was completely broken, and you were ALWAYS in the wrong fund each day, your total return for 2006 would now stand at:

-5.17%

Feel better now?



(Don't read this....Best possible return would be 8.38%)

 

[TiCKed]

Real News:

Ok...now for me.

Base allocation performance: 2.41%
Actual allocation performance: 2.54%
(Through 1/18/06)*

I haven't exactly made any "good moves", but in aggregate, I've been lucky in my seemingly random moves. Avoided a couple of downs last week. If I had been smart enough to STAY with that allocation, I'd be better off.

Right now, I'm holding tight. Waiting for the turnaround....



*(Note: In case you can't replicate my numbers, it's because both Base and Actual include same 1.82% return from 1/3/06, which occurred before rebalancing my account

 

[TiCKed]

2) Earnings reports may push us higher

Dang....I'm dang near clairvoyant! (Not!!)

Oh, well. Might not be the RIGHT thing to do, but I'm holding tight right now for a comeback. I'm looking long term, and don't want to get stuck selling low.

 

[TiCKed]

End o' week wrap:

Our dream:
Highest possible TSP return, 2006: 9.81%

Our nightmare:
Lowest possible TSP return, 2006: -7.11%

My Baseline return, 2006: 1.84%
My Actual return, 2006: 1.94%

I'm losing my lead on my Baseline! I'll never retire at this rate!!
Maybe the next 14 years will be more productive.

 

[tsptalk]

My Baseline return, 2006: 1.84%
My Actual return, 2006: 1.94%

I'm losing my lead on my Baseline! I'll never retire at this rate!!
Maybe the next 14 years will be more productive.

At 2% per month, you won't need to work 14 more years.

 

[TiCKed]

At 2% per month, you won't need to work 14 more years.

You make a very good point, sir. I guess it's just too easy to be pessimistic after a day like today.

For a reality check, here are the returns for each fund in January, 2005:
G: 0.37%
F: 0.58%
C: -2.40%
S: -3.39%
I: -1.89%

Chin up boys!

 

[mlk_man]

And girls........

 

[TiCKed]

End o' week wrap, 1/27/06:

Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +15.30%*
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -7.80%*

Midpoint (Something to shoot for?): +3.75%

My Baseline return, 2006: +3.80%
My Actual return, 2006: +3.99%

What does this mean? Absolutely nothing.


*(Last weeks numbers were in error. Actually numbers were +10.26%/-7.11%)

 

[TiCKed]

End o' week wrap, 2/3/06:

Our dream (Highest possible TSP return, 2006): +16.45%
Our nightmare (Lowest possible TSP return, 2006): -10.12%

Midpoint (Something to shoot for?): +3.16%

My Baseline return, 2006: +2.80%
My Actual return, 2006: +2.94%

I've fallen below the midpoint.....

Still holding at stronger than baseline in stocks.....more from inattention than real intent. (I've been napping). But I am proud of myself for not really caring that the market had some nasty drops in the meantime. Maybe I'm a closet bull after all?

Question for the day:
If one believes the stock market will rise in the long term, isn't the risk of missing an up worse than suffering a down?

Don't know if I believe that or not...but I'm playing by those rules. Interested in any thoughts.

 

[Birchtree]

The Equalizer

Ticked,

You are correct in your assumptions - you have to be in to win. If you are doing the dollar cost averging strategy you will catch a good many of the give back prices and accumulate more shares in the process. That way you will benefit from trading even though you are not actually trading. I've been doing this with the C fund for a number of years with my full allocation contribution at 100%. You'd be surprised how fast the number of shares add up. The only problem is that in a rally mode you purchase less shares - but your accumulated shares from previous hits are now working for you. I simply roll with the punches and buy every two weeks - fate is my destiny.

If the C fund wants to stay under $14.00 for the rest of the year, that's dandy - because eventually when it decides to make its' own new high I'll be there with multithousands of shares and making multithousands of dollars per point. That's the buy and hold approach.

Dennis