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TiCKed Account Talk
- Thread starter TiCKed
- Start date
TiCKed
Member
I need to get back to reading these message boards, and Tom's comments. 
In the past, I was pretty good at keeping up....and knowing what the pro's and con's in the market were. (I didn't always benefit from knowing...but that's another story.)
Lately, I've been on 100% autopilot, and got caught by surprise over the last couple of days.
Losing money, and understanding why, doesn't hurt as bad as when you're blindsided. :embarrest:
In the past, I was pretty good at keeping up....and knowing what the pro's and con's in the market were. (I didn't always benefit from knowing...but that's another story.)
Lately, I've been on 100% autopilot, and got caught by surprise over the last couple of days.
Losing money, and understanding why, doesn't hurt as bad as when you're blindsided. :embarrest:
TiCKed
Member
No TSP news.....
BUT, I do have big news for those who might stumble across my less than exciting TSP account discussions:
I proposed to my lady last night, and she accepted. A big chunk of non-TSP savings just got dropped on a ring, (investment news to stay on topic
).
Retirement just got a little sweeter, now that I have someone to share it with.
BUT, I do have big news for those who might stumble across my less than exciting TSP account discussions:
I proposed to my lady last night, and she accepted. A big chunk of non-TSP savings just got dropped on a ring, (investment news to stay on topic
).Retirement just got a little sweeter, now that I have someone to share it with.
TiCKed
Member
Thank you sir!
She's threatening to turn over all finances to me. But she has more high powered help with her investing than I do! One of her sorority sisters is a high priced financial advisor with a major bank, and has clients from several professional sports teams. I think we'll continue to tap into her free advice.
TiCKed
Member
Thanks Dell and Ocean for the happy thoughts.
I was teasing her after the proposal. "I only proposed on October 1st so I'd remember the date. New fiscal year."
She smacked me.
(Probably one of many....I need to smacked regularly).
I was teasing her after the proposal. "I only proposed on October 1st so I'd remember the date. New fiscal year."
She smacked me.
(Probably one of many....I need to smacked regularly).
TiCKed
Member
I've been pretty much ignoring my TSP, and running on "buy and hold" autopilot since my last move in May 2006. Now, looking at Rokid's weekly tracker, I find I'm in danger of breaking into the top 15!?!
Turns out a good Bull Run has been good to me. Birchtree would probably appreciate this since it backs up his "Gotta be IN to WIN" theory.
Here's my Rokid tracker position since my last "market timing" move.
Last Move: 10 May 2006
May ...Week 2...33rd...7.52%
.........Week 3...32nd...5.01%
.........Week 4...31st...5.55%
.........Final.......33rd...6.35%
June...Week 1...27th...2.92%
.........Week 2...30th...2.52%
.........Week 3...32nd...2.43%
.........Final.......32nd...5.11%
July....Week 1...30th...4.72%
.........Week 2...35th...2.14%
.........Week 3...29th...2.30%
.........Week 4...28th...5.36%
.........Final.......28th...5.34%
Aug ...Week 1...27th...5.68%
.........Week 2...28th...4.59%
.........Week 3...25th...7.26% Some dropped from Tracker this week(?)
.........Week 4...27th...6.51%
.........Final.......25th...7.63%
Sept...Week 1...27th...6.82%
.........Week 2...21st...7.90%
.........Week 3...24th...7.76%
.........Final.......21st...9.04%
Oct ...Week 1...18th...9.93%
.........Week 2...18th...11.12%
.........Week 3...16th...11.65%
Not bragging....Nothing to brag about! Just some encouragement to those who don't have the time to really get into following the market, and their TSP accounts.
(edited to fix formating).
Turns out a good Bull Run has been good to me. Birchtree would probably appreciate this since it backs up his "Gotta be IN to WIN" theory.
Here's my Rokid tracker position since my last "market timing" move.
Last Move: 10 May 2006
May ...Week 2...33rd...7.52%
.........Week 3...32nd...5.01%
.........Week 4...31st...5.55%
.........Final.......33rd...6.35%
June...Week 1...27th...2.92%
.........Week 2...30th...2.52%
.........Week 3...32nd...2.43%
.........Final.......32nd...5.11%
July....Week 1...30th...4.72%
.........Week 2...35th...2.14%
.........Week 3...29th...2.30%
.........Week 4...28th...5.36%
.........Final.......28th...5.34%
Aug ...Week 1...27th...5.68%
.........Week 2...28th...4.59%
.........Week 3...25th...7.26% Some dropped from Tracker this week(?)
.........Week 4...27th...6.51%
.........Final.......25th...7.63%
Sept...Week 1...27th...6.82%
.........Week 2...21st...7.90%
.........Week 3...24th...7.76%
.........Final.......21st...9.04%
Oct ...Week 1...18th...9.93%
.........Week 2...18th...11.12%
.........Week 3...16th...11.65%
Not bragging....Nothing to brag about! Just some encouragement to those who don't have the time to really get into following the market, and their TSP accounts.
(edited to fix formating).
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Sometimes the turtle will get to the finish line just as quick as the bunny - and without less hassels. I hope you have been doing the DCA thing - it's great, especially when you look back and review all those lower prices you captured and the subsequent shares being added. Plenty of time to relax. I can't believe all the participants waiting for the pull back that may not happen with ant depth. All the index volume and breadth MCSUMs are too high for much price decay.
TiCKed
Member
A hypothetical and philosophical question for you....
Let's say there's someone posting their moves on TSPTalk who has been jumping from G-F-C-I funds since 28 August 2006. During the time between 28 August, and 25 October, he has made 13 moves!
Ok....Now if we tracked his moves, and jumped funds exactly as he has done, and found that on only TWO of his moves did he actually lose money. Would we be correct in assuming he's an absolute wizard at market timing? That his moves were uncannily correct?
(I'll wait for your answer).
But wait...there's more!
If he were to start in the F Fund at $10.87, and we assume (since we don't know) that he had 100 shares, then he would start with $1087. If we take his 100 F-fund shares worth $1087, and make every transfer he has posted here, we find that he ends up with $1112.345 on 25 October. Are we still convinced he's a Wizard??
(I'll wait again).
OH...did I mention that if he had STAYED in the C-Fund, he would have had $1157.69?
Or by staying in the I fund, he would have had $1137.80.
Too risky?
How about 25% of his $1087 in each of the four funds. Why, he would have had $1122.25!!
(Ok...the sarcasm may have been a little thick here).
But, sure enough, there were only two "losing" moves in the whole bunch. I just contend that that isn't a valid measure of success!!
We need to be careful about how we assess our "successful" moves, and be careful about people who claim an amazing success rate without knowing what the measure of "success" was, and what the other options were.
Without really looking at the actual % gain, as calculated by our hard working trackers, it's all just talk.
(MS Word document showing my work available to those who want it....PM me with email address).
Let's say there's someone posting their moves on TSPTalk who has been jumping from G-F-C-I funds since 28 August 2006. During the time between 28 August, and 25 October, he has made 13 moves!
Ok....Now if we tracked his moves, and jumped funds exactly as he has done, and found that on only TWO of his moves did he actually lose money. Would we be correct in assuming he's an absolute wizard at market timing? That his moves were uncannily correct?
(I'll wait for your answer).
But wait...there's more!
If he were to start in the F Fund at $10.87, and we assume (since we don't know) that he had 100 shares, then he would start with $1087. If we take his 100 F-fund shares worth $1087, and make every transfer he has posted here, we find that he ends up with $1112.345 on 25 October. Are we still convinced he's a Wizard??
(I'll wait again).
OH...did I mention that if he had STAYED in the C-Fund, he would have had $1157.69?
Or by staying in the I fund, he would have had $1137.80.
Too risky?
How about 25% of his $1087 in each of the four funds. Why, he would have had $1122.25!!
(Ok...the sarcasm may have been a little thick here).
But, sure enough, there were only two "losing" moves in the whole bunch. I just contend that that isn't a valid measure of success!!
We need to be careful about how we assess our "successful" moves, and be careful about people who claim an amazing success rate without knowing what the measure of "success" was, and what the other options were.
Without really looking at the actual % gain, as calculated by our hard working trackers, it's all just talk.
(MS Word document showing my work available to those who want it....PM me with email address).
Last edited:
Birchtree
Well-known member
TICKed,
The simple and uncomplicated answer is that we are all genuises in a bull market. Some members like to bunny hop, some use the weather for direction, some have developed home made systems, and some like myself just ride the Ducati in and out of every cycle. The buy and hold strategy does work better in a bull market. Being a long term holder is actually very difficult because you have to have discipline of approach and confidence in your own future. I ignore the small bumps in the road when I'm climbing the hill. Now when I've determined I'm on the pinnacle it will be time for a new game. The game of have gun, will travel. Palladin will pistol shoot up the place to garner a few hundred thousand more dollars. I'm waiting patiently for the days ahead when volatility rules supreme - it may take another few years but I got the time and the dime.
The simple and uncomplicated answer is that we are all genuises in a bull market. Some members like to bunny hop, some use the weather for direction, some have developed home made systems, and some like myself just ride the Ducati in and out of every cycle. The buy and hold strategy does work better in a bull market. Being a long term holder is actually very difficult because you have to have discipline of approach and confidence in your own future. I ignore the small bumps in the road when I'm climbing the hill. Now when I've determined I'm on the pinnacle it will be time for a new game. The game of have gun, will travel. Palladin will pistol shoot up the place to garner a few hundred thousand more dollars. I'm waiting patiently for the days ahead when volatility rules supreme - it may take another few years but I got the time and the dime.
TiCKed
Member
Absolutely true. That's the only reason I'm making money....my "plan" is devilishly concocted to depend on the market going up.
I'll get mine when (once again) I'll be too slow to get out. We may be in the middle of one now, and here I sit....fully invested.
My point, (while trying to confirm some claims), was that I found some people being cute with their reporting. "X straight successful moves!!" Baloney.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Being fully invested is the correct approach - none of us has any idea of the power that is going to come rolling into the market. I only have an inkling from past experience. This November 11th we will have another annual motorcycle benefit where riders pay to ride for a charity. Try and imagine the sound of 3,000 -4,000 bikes thundering down the road and this thunder lasts for an hour - that's what I see coming for the market. Only it will be multi-millions of hoofs on the move - shaking the ground. Go with the flow and don't look back until 2010.
TiCKed
Member
Submitted an IFT for COB Monday, 11/13.
G:20
F:0
C:40
S:20
I:20
Several reasons:
- I always hated the F fund. Since it's at a relative high, I'm jumping out.
- Moved some I into the S. S may have the edge in up-side potential.
9th move this year....Hope i'm not confusing the trackers.
G:20
F:0
C:40
S:20
I:20
Several reasons:
- I always hated the F fund. Since it's at a relative high, I'm jumping out.
- Moved some I into the S. S may have the edge in up-side potential.
9th move this year....Hope i'm not confusing the trackers.
