TiCKed Account Talk

[TiCKed]

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Hi!



Newbie coming through. Consider this my introduction. J



You can call me TiCKed, or TCK (initials), or Tom….take your pick.



Just signed up since I’ve fairly recently become interested in following my TSP account…after 18 years in government service. To show you my laid back history until now, I just checked. I was actually 100% G fund from inception to 1998. Then I went 50% G, 50% C from 1998 to early 2004. High flyer! I rode out the stock downturn in that condition.



But earlier this year, I went bullish, and G:8, C:50, S:20, and I:22. Funny how getting to within 15 years or so of retirement suddenly makes you CARE. My ASSUMPTION was that troops would begin coming home this year, and give a sunny outlook to the markets. Guess I guessed wrong there...and probably for a few years. Turned out reasonably well though, considering the S and I performance this year.



I just entered my current TSP allocations into the account tracking board. (G:9.2, F:0, C:47.8, S:21.1, I:21.9)….odd figures (again) because I don’t make many moves, and they’ve drifted based on inflows of contributions, and varying returns. Too late in the year to make any noise on your running tally of performance, but I probably wouldn’t have scored very high anyway. I’m more of a “buy and hold” kinda guy. Partly because I lack the time and knowledge to make daily “moves”, and partly because I’m lazy. Maybe by watching you all, I’ll get some added insight, and make a fortuitous jump now and then.



As for plans, I’ll probably scale back a bit sometime early next year since I’m a bit too aggressive at the moment, but I’ll wait and see how the “Christmas Rally” plays out first. I’ll probably come down to a 80/20 stock to bond allocation. That’s my preferred allocation and where my non-TSP funds are set. I’ve never been a fan of the F-Fund, however, so G will be getting my boost in bond money.



Keep up the good work, folks, and I’ll be watching. J

 

[Birchtree]

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Gee, I hope you had the good fortune to be dollar cost averaging into the C fund from 1998 to 2004, if so, you gained some very efficient pricing and accumulated many shares. Welcome to the board - one big advantage of TSP is that you are presented with the capability of pushing around some strong dollars with actually minimal costs and risks. You will participate and learn in the process and grow accordingly, is my optimism showing? Good luck.

Dennis

 

[TiCKed]

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Birchtree wrote:

Gee, I hope you had the good fortune to be dollar cost averaging into the C fund from 1998 to 2004, if so, you gained some very efficient pricing and accumulated many shares. Welcome to the board - one big advantage of TSP is that you are presented with the capability of pushing around some strong dollars with actually minimal costs and risks. You will participate and learn in the process and grow accordingly, is my optimism showing? Good luck.

Dennis

Unfortunately, I was contributing only to G fund until early this year. As I said, I was pretty damn passive. (Now contributing 25% to G, C, S, and I).

Still, it's a pretty nice chunk of change. I was at least smart enough to sock away a good percentage of my pay....mainly to make sure I didn't just spend it.

Thanks for the good wishes...and good luck to you as well!

 

[tsptalk]

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Welcome TiCKed! Good luck.

Tom

 

[Oldcoin]

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Don't feel like the lone stranger, quite a few of us are waking up to the potential of making a few moves during the year.

 

[TiCKed]

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Not to start a fight or anything.....

But boy, I see alot of reactionary moves out there today. The more I see, the more I believe Buy and Hold for the long term is the way to go.

Staying with my allocations through the new year....


(Edited to correct my standard "Engineering Grammar".....twice.)

 

[TiCKed]

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Close to the open (Monday, 12 December), S&P futures are over 1272, and is being touted as an indicator of a strong open.

Does anyone use futures as an indicator, or are they just wild bets placed by traders? Covers for other positions? Or, (more likely), they are too limited in time to be useful for TSP trades?

Just wondering.....

Sitting tight with my diversified, but Stock heavy allocations....

 

[Show-me]

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I have watch them for over a year and found that they are completely unreliable in my opinion. I have seen them negative and then go positive when the markets open and visa versa to many times. They are interesting to watch but again in my opinion you would have better luck flipping your Morgan.

 

[TiCKed]

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Thanks for the info. I suspected as much. A single point of reference does not a reliableindicator make. (Or something like that.)

And I wonder how many out there are confused by the "flip your Morgan" comment.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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TiCKed wrote:

And I wonder how many out there are confused by the "flip your Morgan" comment.

Not me....been collecting Morgan Silver Dollars for years....and your avatar is a nice one:^

 

[Show-me]

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Yes love the coins! Shiiiinnnnyyyyy!

 

[grandma]

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TiCKed wrote:

And I wonder how many out there are confused by the "flip your Morgan" comment.

I wanted to look up when the Morgan dollar was first coined - so grabbed the dictionary to see if it was mentioned. Under Morgan, a small '95 Merrriam-Webster has:"any of an American breed of lightly built horses." ...which probably means a Morgan horse might be almost as easily flipped as the coin??? What say, Technician??:l

 

[Dogdaddy]

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Grandma:

Morgans first minted 1878-1904, and then again in 1921 until the Peace Dollar was introduced to celebrate the end of WWI. Morgan horses, by the way, are equally beautiful as the coinage.

Dogdaddy

 

[TiCKed]

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Dogdaddy wrote:

Grandma:

Morgans first minted 1878-1904, and then again in 1921 until the Peace Dollar was introduced to celebrate the end of WWI. Morgan horses, by the way, are equally beautiful as the coinage.

Dogdaddy

Dang!! Missed my chance to expound on my hobby.

I've got a 90% complete set of Morgans. I stopped when I got to the expensive ones.

 

[ou81200]

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I have a few Morgans also. My set is mainly Peace dollars. Does anyone have any Carson City ones?

 

[TiCKed]

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ou81200 wrote:

I have a few Morgans also. My set is mainly Peace dollars. Does anyone have any Carson City ones?

I used to have ALL of them. Sold most when I thought it was a good time to sell....and like so many "market timer's" before me, I sold too early. Still made a few hundered bucks on them. I think I still have a stray one or two.

Coins are just a hobby for me, but it also became a pretty good investment given the current soaring market. (Trying to keep this on topic).

 

[ou81200]

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Coin collecting is only a hobby for me. My first was a 1909 VDB penny. Wish it was a 1909 S VDB.. That was back in 1974.

 

[TiCKed]

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Still holding tight with my (hard to remember) stock heavy allocation....but I'm getting an itch that may need scratching soon. Plenty of unflattering talk about stocks for the new year.

I said in my first post that I'm not a F-Fund fan, but I think I'll be taking a position in the F- sometime before the new year. It may be time to retreat, and bonds may yet have their day.

Random thoughts:

-I got to thinking about Christmas week, and how I won't be able to do anything because of holiday travel. Resigned myself to riding any trend without action. Then it occurred to me that I'm no doubt NOT alone. Does absense of traders result in an absense of real trends? Hmmmm....

-Downloaded the spreadsheet available on this site, and plugged my numbers in to see where my allocations put me compared to the other posted results. I was about 4.4% through November, so justmiddle-of-the-road. It's good to really KNOW I'm not out of line with other accounts....although I expected that. (Of course the higher return owners make me want to DO something.....and the lower return owners make me afraid to try.)

-Also took note of the fact that the spreadsheet doesn't tell the whole story. Cash inflows are ignored. Now, for active traders, that probably doesn't make much difference. Each time you transfer funds, those new cash inflows are taken into account. For "buy and hold", it can make a difference:

Imagine two identical un-traded accounts, (say 20% allocations). If one puts all "new" money in the F, and the other had put all "new" money in the I, they would over the course of the year have quite different ACTUAL returns.

Not that I'm blaming the spreadsheet....it's perfectly adequate for the purposes here. And trying to take inflows into account would require more revealing information than any of us really want to give, (how much we contribute, what our actual balances are, and by extension what we make per year).

Enough waste of electrons.....Good luck all!

 

[Spaf]

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TiCKed,

The "Tracker" spreadsheet is a "strategy" comparison only! Your actual TSP account could be quite different.

Dis help! Rgds! Spaf

 

[TiCKed]

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Spaf wrote:

TiCKed,

The "Tracker" spreadsheet is a "strategy" comparison only! Your actual TSP account could be quite different.

Dis help! Rgds! Spaf

Totally understand. As noted, for the purposes of this website, and for assessment of differing strategies, the tracker spreadsheet is absolutely the right method.

On the other hand, one could argue that there is "strategy" to contribution amounts and allocations.....but we won't go there.

I have a home spreadsheet, and track daily price gains, and percentagesfor the funds, and for my account balance. Tried to figure out an efficient way to do JUST MY actual return while taking contributions into account, and decided it wasn't worth the effort. I can't imagine even attempting it for all players.