This Week in Stocks: 9/8 - 9/14/07

[draggen3]

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=5942

very interesting read

 

[Birchtree]

Mr. Peter Eliades is always too bearish for me. But thanks.

 

[James48843]

It's the "Cheeseburger Effect" driving the markets today.


McDonalds reported strong sales in August, led by growth in foreign markets.

From yahoo:

"In Europe, same-store sales rose 6.1 percent, helped by a new Mediterranean menu promotion in Germany that featured a hamburger with black olives and tomatoes and a shrimp lemon burger. Sales in France were helped by promotions for a chicken sandwich with cheese and a special dessert. In Britain, the company featured a Big Tasty with barbecue sauce and a barbecued chicken sandwich with bacon.

Same-store sales rose 12.4 percent in the company's Asia/Pacific, Middle East and Africa unit, helped by extended store hours in Australia and China, as well as a new value menu and student card in China. The company said sales in Japan benefited from a special caramel and Oreo cookie dessert and a Big Mac promotion."

Got the picture?

Cheeseburger, Cheeseburger.​

 

[Spaf]

The Periodic Lilly Pond Report
September 11, 2007
by Spaf for the Tadpole Savings Pond​

The Frog Report, Doodles, The Lilly Pad, Tea Leaves, and Le Chart.

The Frog Report:
Croak.............................................Recently Griffin noted that the S&P was forming a pennant (1.). Flags and pennants are areas of consolidation on a trend chart. Flags and pennants are the basis for higher lows. On pennants the support and resistance lines converge into a point (forming the pennant shape).

The breakout is the key for flags and pennants. When the breakout is in the direction of the trend, the trend continues, otherwise the trend could be over.

(1.). http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=114488&postcount=774

Doodles:
$SPX....1471.49 +19.79 for the day......00000...........00000
Stops.............................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
[Stops were broken, and have not been re-established]

The Lilly Pad
Location..........................................100% G-fund.

Tea Leaves:
Leaves............................................Capital Preservation.

Le Daily Chart
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

 

[tsptalk]

I'm terrible at these types of calls, but is anyone else sensing that this rally will fail today? Small caps and the nasdaq are lagging badly.

 

[weatherweenie]

I'm terrible at these types of calls, but is anyone else sensing that this rally will fail today? Small caps and the nasdaq are lagging badly.

Maybe not today, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a down day tomorrow.

 

[Show-me]

Rosh Hashanah is the beginning of a historically weak period until Yom Kippur.

 

[vectorman]

I'm terrible at these types of calls, but is anyone else sensing that this rally will fail today? Small caps and the nasdaq are lagging badly.

I'm terrible too, but I'll take a shot at it. The VIX broke down through 25 and has filled a gap that needed to be filled. It is now resting above support at 24 and above an upward trend line seen on the chart. The volume on the Dow is low, so there is not much conviction to the rally. If the market doesn't break through the support at 24 or that trend line, I look for some profit taking sometime tomorrow to lock in recent gains. Even if the retail sales news is weak, the market has already priced in a rate cut. Since nobody knows what the Fed is really going to do, I look for the VIX to go up short term to backtest and the market go down. But if the VIX does break down and hold below 24 today, that sets up a test toward 20 and possible breakout next week. For myself, I'm keep looking for a retest of 30 soon.

View attachment 2109

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:introduction_to_mark

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/playinggaps.asp

 

[tsptalk]

nice analysis - thanks.

 

[vectorman]

nice analysis - thanks.

Three years ago I didn't know anything about TSP or investing. Thanks to you, other members and this site I've come a long way.

 

[James48843]

Tom-

You know, for some reason my gut is telling me exactly the opposite. I'm thinking we are about to get a breakout on the upside, after three bottoms, and now crossing the 50 day moving average up on the S&P 500.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$SPX


I am following that urge and split my IFT today 50/50 between "C" and "I".

It's not scientific at all. It's gut feeling, and looking at the S&P 500 chart that tells me that.


And finally, look at that second chart , where is is labled "CMF-20". See how it is suddenly postive? That tells me the next move is up, not down. And if in fact it is up, the next move up is very, very big.

(Dang- I wish I could figure out how to annote and post it here so I could show you on the chart. Chart tells me big up ahead. )

We'll see tomorrow and Monday.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm sure your gut is better than mine. I was hoping for selling leading up the Fed announcement so I could be a buyer at a lower price, so my hope is dictating my market targets. Not good.

I just read something Revshark wrote on realmoney.com. I won't post the whole thing since it is a pay site.

I have to admit the strength doesn't feel very logical to me, and that makes it much tougher for me to do much buying. On the other hand, I'm not going to fight it [won't short it]....
I believe that this action will ultimately prove to be unhealthy, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't seek to profit from it while you can.

 

[vectorman]

Nice rally on the surface, but the Semiconductor Index is flat.:suspicious: It's usually a leader.
If we are going to have a broad market breakout it should be on convincing volume. Also the index is showing a Head and Shoulders pattern.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=soxx&sid=11520&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh

 

[vectorman]

Nice rally on the surface, but the Semiconductor Index is flat.:suspicious: It's usually a leader.
If we are going to have a broad market breakout it should be on convincing volume. Also the index is showing a Head and Shoulders pattern.

http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=soxx&sid=11520&time=6mo&Submit1=Refresh

View attachment 2112
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SOXX
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_t


Looks like the VIX will hold above the 24 support.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=VIX
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=115880&postcount=28

 

[vectorman]

I guess I better add this before Birchtree gets after me. Snort. For all those bullish members. The SOXX chart above is also showing a possible Bottom Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. Just something else to watch as Tuesday draws near. Keep an eye on volume.

View attachment 2114

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:head_and_shoulders_b

 

[Show-me]

Japan says concerned about U.S. economy

Government points at U.S. subprime crisis, says upbeat about its own economy, despite lower business spending.

September 14 2007: 6:15 AM EDT


TOKYO (AP) -- Japan expressed confidence in its economic recovery in a monthly government report released Friday, while acknowledging worries about the U.S. economy - Japan's biggest export market - and domestic business spending.
The Cabinet Office report for this month lowered its assessment for capital spending for the first time in two and a half years, or since March 2005.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/14/news/international/bc.japan.economy.ap/index.htm

 

[Show-me]

Pretty lame day so far. Will the market shake out the last 20 minutes? I think so.

 

[vectorman]

Pretty lame day so far. Will the market shake out the last 20 minutes? I think so.

The VIX is in a really tight range. Monday is going to be the day to watch.

View attachment 2125

 

[clester]

Looks like the Ebb-effect on the S fund. Nice rally at the close. All that money pouring in at the close. Lets hope it carries over to Monday.

 

[fedgolfer]

hopefully the hanging man candlestick on the S&P, which open and closed above the 50 SMA will add to the bullish momentum. We're in an uptrend that broke resistance then found support on that 50 SMA.