The Retirement Kingdom - July 2007

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
July 2007 Edition
Sunday July 01, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Yak.....................................July is generally the best month of the third quarter. Reportedly a lot of new retirement funds starts the 2nd half of the year. However, currently the moving averages are lower. S&P 500 [$SPX] is trading below it's 13 day moving average. Yet the stochastics oscillator has bounced off of being oversold and is registering a strong bullish signal.

The problem is that we established a new lower high and we could be headed for a trading range. Maybe 1540 to 1490.

A retirement allocation in the range of L-2010 or L-Income appears to be a safe position bet. Higher than L-2010 could require some swing trades if the trading range stays around for the summer. Also, keep an eye on the price of crude oil. When it starts getting pricey, we all know what can happen!

Our current stops are broken. Hopefully we can get them re-established if the July returns hold up.....

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops...............................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1503.35 +0.79 for the week....X1524............X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............70.68 +1.54 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Be prepared for some swing trades.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=11.99..F=11.26..C=16.78..S=20.56..I=24.66
....(end of 2006)...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................30%-G, 00%-F, 30%-C, 20%-S, 20%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
July 2007 Edition
Tuesday July 03, 2007​

Yak.................Might have noticed: Going back to a conservative allocation of 60% G, 20% C, 10% S, and 10% I.

2007 so far so good!...............Regards and be careful!

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
July 2007 Edition
Sunday July 08, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Yak.....................................The bullish trend continues with the 13 day moving average above the 50d MA. Pricing is within the bollinger bands, but getting close to the top.

A bit of caution, the stochastics oscillator is registering bullish with %K over %D, but closing in on the critical value of 80 (over bought); above which upward momentum will be difficult to sustain. Also keep an eye on the price of crude, up over $2 last week.

Currently at 60% cash and 40% equities

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.................................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1530.44 +27.09 for the week....1524.............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............72.81 +2.13 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<65= ok, 65-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=12.00..F=11.19..C=17.10..S=21.05..I=25.07
....(end of 2006)...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 00%-F, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

Oh my gosh! Hold on to your Lilly Pad!....

View attachment 1745​

 

[Birchtree]

Your Le Charts is so pretty - thanks for posting. Can you lend me some of that excess G money?

 

[Spaf]

Hi ya Birch!

The dang market is like a dog and coon chase. When the dog gets to close the coon runs up a tree and we get a pullback!

I'd lend U some but your mattress is already over stuffed!.....:laugh:

Your Le Charts is so pretty - thanks for posting. Can you lend me some of that excess G money?

 

[Birchtree]

Talk about a coon hunt - Tim Wood is still looking for his 4 year low. I posted an article on the Dow Theory in the bullpen. I think retirement for me is on the horizon - I need much more investment time and a better circadian rythm pattern.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Periodical
July 09, 2007​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Yak.......................................The market remains bullish, but prices are inching higher into overbought conditions. Trading is near the top of the Bollinger Bands.

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1531.85 +1.41..........1524............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............72.19 -0.62 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<65= ok, 65-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Tenitive fold to 100% G-Fund. Capital Preservation.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 00%-F, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
July 2007 Edition
Sunday July 15, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Yak.....................................Last week we had a major match between the bulls and the bears. The bears pulled a large decline on Tuesday, but the Bulls held their ground and took the offensive for the rest of the week.

Sorry, but war games are in my past! Rather sit on the pad for this one; too risky! Small losses won't hurt you much, but large losses will.

We still have our bullish trend with pricing above the 13d MA. But trading with [SPX] above the upper Bollinger Bands is overextended and a pause or retracement can be expected. The Stochastics Oscillator is over 80 indicating that stocks are over bought.

Will be staying at 100% G-fund for TSP, [and a cautious 60%/40% for trading funds].

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.................................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1552.50 +22.06 for the week....1537.............1522

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............73.93 +1.12 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<65= ok, 65-75= worry, >75= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=12.02..F=11.24..C=17.34..S=21.21..I=25.43
....(end of 2006)...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................100%-G.

 

[Spaf]

How to approach retirement!​

You have to have a plan and you have to monitor it. Way down the road!

You need an accountant for advice on what should be paid an what to keep i.e., a minimal home mortgage is good for itemizing, reason being Ur going to have medical expenses.

Figure out your living expences for your retirement.

Figure out your income after retirement.
Social Security + Civil Service + TSP + any other income.

If you chose TSP withdrawls, the annual withdrawl should not exceed 4% if you want to hold the principal. You need to have TSP gains of about 7% (4% + inflation (3%)). The TSP account should have a cushion on it of roughly 10%.

In 2006 the G-fund = 4.93%, L-Inc. = 7.59%, and L-2010 = 11.09%.

In a Bull market an allocation modeled after the L-funds could be in the range of 60% cash and 40% equities.

In a Bear market an alocation of 100% G-fund would preserve the principal and still give a reasonable gain.

Age and trading: the more rewards you have, the less risk you want. TSP is a retirement account. The 1-2 day IFT's can do some damage in a volatile market. If you buy-an-hold knowing how to duck a Bear market is to your advantage.

All investors can look back and see mistakes. Quarterbacking is easy to do. The principle rule though is "Don't let small losses turn into big losses".

The biggest issue is to have a plan and monitor it. 30 years out, 25, 20, 15, 10, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 0.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Periodical
July 16, 2007​

Well the trader account topped out today so we sold off the equities, and went back to cash.

Basically we had 3 trades today selling [IVV], [IJR], and [EFA].

It's to risky in these overbought conditions!

Currently 99.6% cash and 00.4% precious metals.

Regards
And be careful.......
Spaf​

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Periodical
July 18, 2007​

Le Funds​

G-fund is chugging along. Should get a penny pretty soon!

F-fund is moving sideways, kind of range bound, but then interest rates are still high.

C-fund is very overbought. Not a good buy. Probably a little consolidation is needed.

S-fund is very overbought. Not a good buy. Probably a little range bound; caution!

I-fund is approching the oversold area, and has a may have a buy potential.

$USD is very oversold and seems to be languishing at the bottom of the pond.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Periodical
July 19, 2007​

Parked TSP in the G-fund, and put the internet broker funds into cash. The market charts are showing US equities to be overbought. However, [EFA] has been consolidating and is approching oversold area. Humm! The [$USD] is in the tank. Maybe still breathing?

November, December, January, March and April are the top investing months so there is no reservation about sitting on the lilly pad.

Besides I can't find the boat ramps, they are still underwater. So I sit on the "Lilly Pad" (boat's name) and the neighbors come over and we mix up margaritas!

Later
Spaf

 

[Callme_CO]

Margaritas!!! sure could use one of those...or two...or three.

 

[Spaf]

Margaritas​

[frozen]​

How to, simply!​

http://www.luxco.com/public/brands/brands.asp?brandid=41​

http://www.backtobasicsproducts.com/pages/products/iceTreats.php​

plus salt and a lime.....Wala!.....:nuts:​

 

[Wethammer]

Hey Spaf, I'm new to the forum, retirement and loving it too. Where would I go to get an answer about beginning withdrawals? I just read in the TSP book under withdrawal deadlines and it says I have to begin withdrawing the year following the year I become 70.5, or the year following the year I separate from the Fed service. What if I'm only 57 at retirement? If I draw before 59.5, don't I get whacked? Thanks for any assistance you can send my way.

 

[Spaf]

Hey Spaf, I'm new to the forum, retirement and loving it too. Where would I go to get an answer about beginning withdrawals? I just read in the TSP book under withdrawal deadlines and it says I have to begin withdrawing the year following the year I become 70.5, or the year following the year I separate from the Fed service. What if I'm only 57 at retirement? If I draw before 59.5, don't I get whacked? Thanks for any assistance you can send my way.

You need to go to TSP.gov "GETTING YOUR MONEY OUT AFTER YOU SEPERATE" download it.
Also download a TSP-70 form.
NOW!
Also TSP-536 Important Tax Information.......
Read the information! Do not take drinks or drive till U understand it....

 

[Wethammer]

Oh GREAT!!! Thanks sooo much for your quick reply. I've got a very bad feeling about the NOW in your post. I've read the section on withdrawals but to me, it's as clear as mud. I left my money in TSP and it's grown quite well but no one told me I had to withdraw it until I was 70.5 and if I did withdraw before I was 59.5, I'd get hammered with penalties. The TSP pamphlet about Withdrawing Your TSP After Retirement says I should have done it earlier or I forfeit all of it to TSP, or at least the earnings. Sure hope I'm wrong. I was under the impression, (and my personnel officer never said anything about it either), that I could leave my money in TSP after I retired, let it grow, and start to draw it out before I turned 70.5. I was a Fed Agent so our retirement was mandatory at 57 years of age. I retired 11/01 but came back as a Rehired Annuitant in 2002-2004.

Please, please tell me I'm OK, and thanks for your wisdom and promptness.

 

[Spaf]

Call TSP and talk to them. Get it straight from the horses mouth. I've talked to them several times. They are nice and very knowledgeable. <>877-968-3778<>

The reason I'm a bit upset is---> Within the first year of federal employment an employee should recieve TSP training and be given a packet with all the TSP information. Then, every 2-3 years a TSP monitor should set up shop in the "Federal Building" and give a update and personal sessions. And would it be too much to ask for an annual brochure of what is going on! If Social Security can send me one, why can't TSP?

Ok! I'll get down off my soap box!.......

 

[nnuut]

You have a point, I have never seen a retirement plan that keeps the Members in the dark like the TSP. You think it's bad now, think about when it first started, it was a secret I think?

 

[Spaf]

TSP = thrift savings plan. But it's not, it's an investment portfolio! Like a IRA.

OK it started out with the G-fund, thats a saving fund. But the G-fund is not a great fund for growth. Federal employees have good pay but many are not IMHO able to go much over the 5% contribution.

CSRS was a great system. But I think some folks thought it was costing too much. So the FERS system was developed. But it was poorly executed!
Remember...all the supervisors and managers were CSRS.

When more [FERS] managers get in place, the system will get changed! And folks will stop being treated like mushrooms! MHO!