The Retirement Kingdom - June 2007

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 13, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The Stochastics oscillator for SPX still registered bullish with %K above %D, and above 20; no longer oversold. Moving averages now show bullish above 13d MA / above 50d MA. Vol. = 2.7b.

Con-Yak...................................Volatile week so far!

Jester-Yak................................Maybe we should put on a Life Jacket?

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1515.67 +22.67........X1524...........1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............66.26 +0.91 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold. Market rallies on supprise increase in retail sales!

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................45%-G, 00%-F, 25%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 14, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX bullish above 13d MA / above 50d MA. Trading within Bollinger bands and Stochastics oscillator indicating a strong bullish with %K above %D.

Con-Yak...................................I didn't see no big rally!

Jester-Yak................................It's fishing time!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1522.97 +7.30.........X1524...........1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............67.65 +1.39 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Still on Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................45%-G, 00%-F, 25%-C, 15%-S, 15%-I.

 

[smine]

I have a question. If I retire this Sept. (CRS) then elect to return as a contract person working very occasionally (I know!) can I then continue to put money in TSP? Anyone know the answer to this?

 

[vol46]

I'm guessing that you are a carrier. Once you become a contract carrier, you are no longer an employee of the postal service and the answer would be no.
Perhaps someone with a little knowledge will be able to answer your question.
Later, V6

 

[Spaf]

Smine, I looked at the TSP options. I didn't see that one! You can leave it till April 1 of the year after your 70.5.
Once U leave Fed Serv. OPM notifies TSP that ur a gone duck!
You might want to ask TSP to be sure!

 

[smine]

Thanks. Will check it out.

 

[Spaf]

Re: TSP Retirement Center Chat Room

The Retirement Kingdom
June Edition
Sunday June 17, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................The market is alive and well! Bulls take over as data shows that inflation is in check.

Con-Yak....................................Indicators are that things could get volatile. Reason: The Stochastics oscillator is registering bullish with %K over %D, however it quickly heads towards 80 and overbought conditions. True the trend is bullish but the weather looks stormy. The best 6 months still remain as Nov, 1st through April 30th. My allocation will return to a safe mode of 60/40 (60G, 20C, 10S, and 10I).

Jester-Yak.................................A little bit of what happened, last few weeks:

Jun.4. [SPX] 1539......... Market is overbought, trading is at top of Bollinger Bands (BB). .....Stochastics oscillator (SO) above 80.
Jun.5. [SPX] 1530.(-08). Pullback starts. More sellers than buyers.
Jun.6. [SPX] 1517.(-14). Pullback cont'd.
Jun.7. [SPX] 1490.(-27). Bears pull market back to bottom of BB. Near SO of oversold. But, starting 1st leg of Double Bottom (W).
Jun 8. [SPX] 1507.(+16). BB hold, bulls step up and create 1st part of Double Bottom, the "W".
Jun 11 [SPX] 1509.(+01). Indecision; Pivot point is established on the W.
Jun 12 [SPX] 1493.(-16). Bears have a final say! But have to stop at bottom of BB. The SO sends a bullish signal; %K over % D.
Jun 13 [SPX] 1515.(+23). Bulls step up forming last phase of W and also surpass the pivot point of 1509. The SO remains bullish.
Jun 14-15 [SPX] The market continues up on medium to higher volume.

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops........................................... ......Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1532.91 +25.24 for the week.....1524.............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............68.00 +3.24 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold 60/40. [Capital preservation!]

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=11.97..F=11.18..C=17.10..S=20.87..I=24.66
....(end of 2006)...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................See above.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 18, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX bullish above 13d MA / above 50d MA. Trading within their Bollinger bands.

Con-Yak...................................The Stochastics oscillator remains bullish, but close to being overbought (78.21)

Jester-Yak................................Market momentum seems to be slowing! Summer months? High oil?

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1531.05 -1.86..........1524.............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............69.09 +1.09 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 00%-F, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 18, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................SPX remains bullish trading above the 13d MA / above the 50d MA, and within the Bollinger bands. Volume = 2.4B.

Con-Yak...................................The Stochastics oscillator is now showing a weak bearish as %K is now under %D and above 80 (84.94) as being overbought.

Jester-Yak................................Should I go to "Dip Buyers Anonymous"?

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1533.70 +2.65.........1524.............1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............69.10 +0.01 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 00%-F, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 20, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Well at least the Bollinger bands held! Volume = 2.8B.

Con-Yak...................................SPX dropped below the 13d MA. And, the Stochastics oscillator went bearish with %K under %D.

Jester-Yak................................Always wear your seat belt!...:embarrest:

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1512.84 -20.86........X1524...........1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............68.18 -0.91 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................60%-G, 00%-F, 20%-C, 10%-S, 10%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
June Edition
Sunday June 24, 2007​

Yak, Le Charts, Doodles, Tea Leaves, The Tin Box and The Lilly Pad

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak.....................................It's not the fundamentals. It's the "worries"...Bollinger bands are holding. The stochastics oscillator is bearish with %K under %D, but typical of downward overbought conditionns. The 13d MA is bearish, again typical of overbought conditions.

Con-Yak....................................Socks slump on worries: rates, funds and oil!

Jester-Yak.................................A little dip buying here, maybe!

Le Charts

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
Stops.................................................Alert (-1%).....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX....1502.56 -29.95 for the week.....X1524............X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at..............69.14 +1.14 for the week ending...NYMEX
Oil Markers................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Dip buy (see below).

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending)........G=11.98..F=11.20..C=16.77..S=20.56..I=24.51
....(end of 2006)...........G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................(Maybe) 30%-G, 00%-F, 30%-C, 20%-S, 20%-I.
Will have to see what Monday AM says!

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 25, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................Good time for dip buyers!...

Con-Yak...................................SPX bearish below 13d MA. Trading near lower Bollinger band, and prices are low.

Jester-Yak................................Energy prices pared gains along with subprime woes!

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1497.74 -4.82.........X1524............X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............69.18 +0.04 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................30%-G, 00%-F, 30%-C, 20%-S, 20%-I.

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 26, 2007 Closing​

Yak.

Socks don't know what they want to do! We have good data but they want to linger in rates, subprime and fund woes.......:notrust:

I don't know if I like the way TSP handles the monthly withdrawl in retirement. Reason being, they take a percentage out of each active fund! When shares are oversold, the withdrawl cost more!......:suspicious:

Wish they would set up a R-Fund for withdrawls.

Wishful thinking!

Regards and be careful!

Spaf

 

[Spaf]

The Retirement Kingdom
Daily
June 27, 2007 Closing​

Yak, Doodles, Tea Leaves, and The Lilly Pad.

Kingdom Yak:
Pro-Yak....................................The stochastics oscillator [SPX] turned bullish with %K above %D and above 20 out of the over sold range.

Con-Yak...................................Moving averages remain bearish trending to lower highs.

Jester-Yak................................Is the rain over yet?

Doodles:
Stops.......................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)
.....SPX........1506.34 +13.45........X1524...........X1509

Lube (NYMEX) Closed at...............68.97 +1.20 for the day.
Oil Markers.................................<60= ok, 60-70= worry, >70= panic.

Tea Leaves:
Yakndoodles...............................Hold.

The Lilly Pad
Location....................................30%-G, 00%-F, 30%-C, 20%-S, 20%-I.