Steveg's Account Talk

[steveg]

Steady --

I appreciate your post and your comments!

Birch --

You are right -- being "wrong" is part of investing; no question. And I absolutely agree that it is best to remain cool and collected, and make the most rational decisions possible (which can be tough -- maintaining composure -- in uncertain times).

Steve

 

[steveg]

Well, looks like I sold a day too soon.

Friday's S&P ended down quite a bit more than I would have thought based on the 11:00 AM CDT trade deadline, when we were down just a few points. It closed at 768.54, so I took quite a hit in that I sold quite a bit of my 50% C position. I am now, as of COB Friday the 20th, 84% G, 7% F, 5% C, 2% S, and 2% I. I left myself open to experiment with the "<1% IFT" stuff I've been learning about here the past few days (thanks to squalebear and others).

However, it might be a moot point for me, at least this month -- since it appears that we might finish up big today, in which case I'll be tempted to sell the rest of my shares and go 100% G!

Seems that the market likes the idea of Geithner's "bad asset" plan; things are getting too complex for me to have a good feel for where we are headed short-term, so I think I might feel better off parked in G until I can figure this out. Thoughts anyone?

Steve

 

[nasa1974]

Well, looks like I sold a day too soon.

Friday's S&P ended down quite a bit more than I would have thought based on the 11:00 AM CDT trade deadline, when we were down just a few points. It closed at 768.54, so I took quite a hit in that I sold quite a bit of my 50% C position. I am now, as of COB Friday the 20th, 84% G, 7% F, 5% C, 2% S, and 2% I. I left myself open to experiment with the "<1% IFT" stuff I've been learning about here the past few days (thanks to squalebear and others).

However, it might be a moot point for me, at least this month -- since it appears that we might finish up big today, in which case I'll be tempted to sell the rest of my shares and go 100% G!

Seems that the market likes the idea of Geithner's "bad asset" plan; things are getting too complex for me to have a good feel for where we are headed short-term, so I think I might feel better off parked in G until I can figure this out. Thoughts anyone?

Steve

Steve, unless you feel that the market will absolutely tank I might not pull everything back into G. The nice thing about using the <1% option is it is lower risk on down days but allows you to stay in the game on days like today. I have found that as long as you are under 5% the risk is the lowest on down days. As you increase your percentages towards 10% you also increase your risk. But it all comes down to personal comfort levels. Good luck.

 

[steveg]

Nasa --

Frankly I have no clue what to think, now, short-term, as far as market direction. As of right now, we seem to still be having trouble going above the 805-ish resistance on the S&P. It's looking like, though, we might eventually crash through that sometime today. I decided in the end not to pull back to 100% G, since ultimately you are right -- I'm far from certain that the market is going to tank short-term. Might as well get at least small gains on the 9% I have in stocks at this point.

Clearly, the markets like Geithner's plan. I guess we'll see what happens over the next week, as I am out of moves (aside from a complete pullback to G, or some <1% moves), thus forcing me to basically do some "wait and see."

Steve

 

[justbizness45]

Steveg, I agree with you. Until we see a close above 805 this is a good day in a bear market. I went 100G today selling into the strength. In the last few hours if we break and close above 805 then I will be unhappy since I am IFT poor the rest of the month.:suspicious:

 

[steveg]

It's interesting, justbiz...

We are still stuck in that low 800s range; 805 is still acting as substantial resistance. It will be interesting to see what happens late in this trading day...

Steve

 

[Birchtree]

I'd vote for a bullish stampede buying panic.

 

[steveg]

Birch --

Didn't we have enough of a buying stampede this morning?!

Steve

 

[steveg]

Well, I guess this morning's rally was NOT enough -- as we finished up 7% -- over 54 points -- to close at almost 823 on the S&P.

Friday, I banked on some downward movement in the short term markets, and sold most of my C fund; obviously a bad move, short-term. It will be interesting to see what happens the remainder of the week...

OUCH!!!

Steve

P.S. Birch -- congrats, you got the rally you have been calling for. Unfortunately, I "hopped to the lily pad" a day too early.

 

[Birchtree]

In a market like this warm and fuzzy can be expensive. A big lift today in my toxic assets portfolio. It won't be long and banks will be writing up their mark to market assets. Many mutual funds and hedge funds have been caught light in their equity positions and will now because of history be forced to buy their way into happiness. I want to think in terms of a 1000 point pop tomorrow but I need to relax. PNC was hot today!

 

[steveg]

Markets remain flat today. Aside from the obvious bad news -- in that I pulled out of the market Friday and missed yesterday's big rally, I guess I could try to put a positive spin on it and say that I was still up .64% yesterday...

Naaah. I can't convince myself to see it that way!

In any case, I'm pretty much on the sidelines until April 1. Then, with first quarter earnings due to begin flowing in, it will be tough to decide who wins -- the bulls or the bears.

Me personally, I feel that BIG-TIME problems remain, but nonetheless the market psychology seems to have turned positive. I'm not sure a bad jobs report, or a bad housing report, or a bad CPI number at this point would derail the optimism -- i.e., I think alot of bad news is priced in at this point. Barring some unforeseen bad news, it seems to me like market sentiment (despite the state of our govt. and economy) will support some more up-side. In other words, I remain very bearish when considering all the bad things going on, and the even worse "solutions" which have been enacted, but somewhat bullish in terms of what I think the market might do, short-term, due to what I might call some "irrational exuberance."

In any case, the point is moot. I'm pretty much out of ammo (in terms of any more than some <1% moves...) We shall see...

Steve

 

[nnuut]

I'm in the same boat Steveg, out on Friday and waiting for April, you are NOT alone!!
Geithner's (sp) plan is flawed, I doubt if private companies are going to go after the bait and buy all of those worthless Mortgages etc. So who will have to pay for them, we will!!!! Too much is too much! Now that the truth is out Mr. Market may not like it?:worried:

 

[steveg]

nnuut --

Sorry to hear that you also zigged when you maybe should have zagged :embarrest:, but I'm glad to hear I'm not the only one who pulled that stunt!

I hope the market does indeed decide it is not happy with the details of the plan, because it doesn't sound like a solution to me. It's still the govt. meddling in affairs that, if left alone, would take care of themselves (and would cost alot less taxpayer money, to boot!! )

Steve

 

[justbizness45]

Markets remain flat today. Aside from the obvious bad news -- in that I pulled out of the market Friday and missed yesterday's big rally, I guess I could try to put a positive spin on it and say that I was still up .64% yesterday...

Naaah. I can't convince myself to see it that way!

In any case, I'm pretty much on the sidelines until April 1. Then, with first quarter earnings due to begin flowing in, it will be tough to decide who wins -- the bulls or the bears.

Me personally, I feel that BIG-TIME problems remain, but nonetheless the market psychology seems to have turned positive. I'm not sure a bad jobs report, or a bad housing report, or a bad CPI number at this point would derail the optimism -- i.e., I think alot of bad news is priced in at this point. Barring some unforeseen bad news, it seems to me like market sentiment (despite the state of our govt. and economy) will support some more up-side. In other words, I remain very bearish when considering all the bad things going on, and the even worse "solutions" which have been enacted, but somewhat bullish in terms of what I think the market might do, short-term, due to what I might call some "irrational exuberance."

In any case, the point is moot. I'm pretty much out of ammo (in terms of any more than some <1% moves...) We shall see...

Steve

This euphoria may continue for awhile, the market will probably continue to go up to sideways for a few weeks/months. You hit the nail on the head though, the underlying issues have not been fixed and reality will set in. In the meantime I plan on trying to play the upside as long as possible but firmly believe it will come back down.

 

[steveg]

After some early gains, the market is back to being close to flat early this afternoon.

Yeah, justbiz, I think there is some upside left. The question is, how much, and for how long?! If we all had those answers, we could all make some good money, I guess...

Steve

 

[steveg]

Call him a nutjob if you like, and again -- I am CERTAINLY no economist or financial expert -- but too many of the things Karl Denninger says simply appeal strongly to my brain, from a common-sense perspective. I'd love to hear someone who can refute the below link with something that makes as much common sense as his point of view does...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/898-The-End-Game-Approaches.html

It's long, but read it. Can anyone refute this seemingly common-sensical analysis with anything besides "we crashed quickly, and we've bottomed, so all signs are pointing to a rapid, ongoing bull market rally"???

Steve

 

[Birchtree]

The best I can come up with is don't fight the Fed and don't fight the tape. That's just a realism and not a prognostication, but today should end up very positive.

 

[steveg]

Birch --

What do you mean by "don't fight the fed and don't fight the tape?"

Steve

 

[Warrenlm]

The best I can come up with is don't fight the Fed and don't fight the tape. That's just a realism and not a prognostication, but today should end up very positive.

Another point made by a CEO on Squawk Box a couple months ago was "the government is all in and the government always wins". No mention of cost to the next generation of course.

 

[Birchtree]

Our most recent bear rally has been one of the most violent, and the largest single move in the history of the markets in a three week period. That might mean that it is a possibility the bear market is over. This market will grow two more legs and sprout horns and it's advisable not to stand in front of that metamorphosis. The Fed is expanding the M2 money supply by better than 20% and that may be approaching a record. There is tremendous liquidity available to enter the market and because I believe the market is omnipotent it knows more than I do in looking into the future. That's what I mean by not fighting the tape. More professional folks are trying to compare this rally back to the 1930s. And from one of our previous conversations regarding June 1933 the S&P rallied 105% in 6 months - watch how far this one goes. Again the 1933-37 bull market gained 381% from the bear market low of July 1932. I'm in deep to win and so far so good. By the time the Dow Theory buy signal kicks in we will be up considerably in percentages. The magic numbers are Dow 9015.10 and DJTA at 3717.26. I could end up at the zero line in the next three days at least that's what MindyLou says.