Steveg's Account Talk

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Big down day today; SPX under 900, first time in a long time. Denninger has been calling this; he's also been screaming "game over" for the games the government has been playing lately. He feels they have pretty much backed themselves into the corner that he warned they would. Will be interesting to see if he is correct...

Steve
 
steveg said:
Big down day today; SPX under 900, first time in a long time. Denninger has been calling this; he's also been screaming "game over" for the games the government has been playing lately. He feels they have pretty much backed themselves into the corner that he warned they would. Will be interesting to see if he is correct...

Steve
Click to expand...

Steve, it will be much more than interesting. Let's hope we all make it through the experience in semi-decent shape, cause if it goes down the way he's been working so hard to not see it go down, it's going to be brutal. :worried:
 
alevin --

You can say that again! And the frightening part about it, to me, is that what he says makes so much sense, that I can't see how we are going to avoid it. Seems like we're careening toward the cliff in a car whose brakes have just gone out...!!

Steve
 
Birch --

I'm sure it sounds that way to you...but it's what I see. I've been saying it for a long time; not that I know much, but common sense says that you can't do what's being done without paying the piper...

My attitude is that recessions happen as a necessary part of the system...it weeds out the "weak," so to speak. But if your government cuts the process short, gets overly meddlesome, and blows "bubbles" to keep the "good times rolling," at some point the system has to blow up. And I think saying that our government is being "overly meddlesome" is an UNDERSTATEMENT. Printing money to buy the bonds you are issuing, in essence "funding your own debt?" Buying up the toxic crap that no one in the private sector wants to touch, so that companies can claim to be "profitable" and "healthy" -- and thus transferring the sludge to the taxpayer? I still fail to see how you can look at all that's going on, Birch, and claim we are entering a "cyclical bull market." Read the tea leaves however you like; I'm not buying the "green shoots" crap.

Steve
 
It's simply 2003 all over again - we are now at the resting phase for a couple of months and then we'll be off to blue skies. Remember the market has a tendency to operate out into the future - it might see what you don't. I keep thinking about the technical principle of symmetry which suggests the recovery will mirror the fall. The SPX will ramp from 900 to 1300 in lickity split time when the time is right.
 
Birch --

You say these types of things all the time -- "simply 2003 all over again," etc. etc. You always look to other "recessions," and how the markets behaved, and then assume we will behave the same this time. My question to you would be WHY are we "simply 2003 all over again?" As I see it, we are NOTHING like 2003. With all that the government is doing? Trillion-plus dollar deficits? Government takeovers of GM, Chrysler, Fannie and Freddie, and bailouts of the major banks and AIG? What here is similar to 2003 -- the time after the dot-com boom?

Sorry, but I just don't see it that way. Looking at charts of past events and assuming similar behavior this time around simply doesn't cut it for me. Again, I guess we'll just have to agree to read the tea leaves differently. You and I end up in the same debate every time...

Steve
 
"Understanding, absorbing, and processing the lessons of markets past is often one of the key ingredients in putting together a winning investment program and forging a successful investor. While no two economic climates are ever the same, and no two stock markets are ever the same, successful investors tend to have an established historical knowledge that can be employed to help assess complex situations. While history may not repeat precisely, on many occasions, it rhymes." A good historical comparison of 1938 to today.

http://financialsense.com/ Action-Reaction 6/23/09 by Frank Barbera
 
Birchtree said:
"Understanding, absorbing, and processing the lessons of markets past is often one of the key ingredients in putting together a winning investment program and forging a successful investor. While no two economic climates are ever the same, and no two stock markets are ever the same, successful investors tend to have an established historical knowledge that can be employed to help assess complex situations. While history may not repeat precisely, on many occasions, it rhymes." A good historical comparison of 1938 to today.

http://financialsense.com/ Action-Reaction 6/23/09 by Frank Barbera
Click to expand...
So based off of Frank's article - you're not buying until August?
 
I'll be buying positions starting in July - I'm waiting for my new account to settle this Friday. I've got access to mucho margin money. I'm so ready to gather the dividends and nourish them.
 
Hey all...

Still here; been laying low though, taking my beatings as the market has been on a big up-trend for the past few months. It has been painful missing out on the gains, but I can certainly attest to the fact that life is MUCH less stressful for me, being "out" than "in." Reason? Because I remain convinced that we are headed down -- as convinced now as ever. And to be "in," but certain that we are headed down longer-term, means that I'd be on pins and needles trying to make some quick gains while nervously trying to ascertain the right time to jump out. And I am not cut out for that kind of thing -- now I know why I've never been a gambler!

Congrats to everyone who has been "in" and made some nice gains -- gains, that is, if you don't take a beating on the way back down (assuming I'm correct and that that is where we are headed.) Birch (and the other bulls) -- you have done well, but if I am correct in what is headed our way, I hope you find it in you to jump out of perma-bull mode and lock in your gains.

I have been on record as being quite concerned about where we are headed as an economy and as a nation; time will tell if I am right or not.

In the mean time, I plan to sit on the sidelines and hopefully miss the rug being pulled out from under this charade of a "recovery."

Steve
 
During a secular bull market, the cyclical, or shorter, bull markets within them gained 110% on average and lasted at least three years and longer. That's a long time to be on the lily pad. The economy is healthier than widely believed and exports will provide a bigger boost than in the past. If the market is poised for a multiyear run, investors should be more aggressive about diving into stocks. Since 6/26 I've already made 338 individual purchases.
 
Birch --

Your premise though requires that I agree with two things:

1. This is a secular bull market;

2. The economy is "healthier than widely believed."

Actually, I believe the opposite on these two points, namely:

1. This is a hype-fueled, irrational, unsupported-by-the-fundamentals bear market rally;

2. The economy is "much sicker than widely believed."

Obviously, since we believe two opposite things, only one of us can be right (or, neither of us could be). I guess we shall see...

Steve
 
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