Steveg's Account Talk

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If I absorb those gains does that make me selfish - you are perhaps seeing a classic bull leg starting up and this is how it's supposed to work. The bottom line is you have to be in to win. And make no mistake the bull will do everything to shake you off his back - because the bull wants to take as few for the ride as possible. I've been summarily chastized by some thinking I've been goading others to get into the market - frankly I'm better off if all folks stay on the lily pad. Snort!!
 
No, Birch; in my view it does not make you selfish; if you take a risk and win, you deserve the gains -- just like if you take a risk and lose, you deserve the losses. If I can figure out how to know when to "jump off the ride," I may join you for a time. We shall see.

Steve
 
C'mon he won't be ready until we are comfortably above the Dow 200 SMA at around 9230 or 983 on the SPX - and I wouldn't blame him. I believe a 1006 level on the SPX would be a 50% gain from the March lows. Heck there is another 100% in front of us.
 
OK.

I have been racking my brain for quite awhile trying to understand what's going on. Finally, the lightbulb has gone off -- I think I have figured it out.

I now feel that there is a high probability that, yes, Birch, you are right. Everyone needs to find an oppurtune time and get in the market. Yes, I am serious.

Why do I say this? Have I abandoned all the things I have posted previously? Absolutely not. But, I think I have figured out what is going on.

I have been talking in this thread repeatedly about all the fraud and deceit and lies that I believe exist on the balance sheets of the companies in and close to the financial sector. I have been talking about how eventually this will be exposed, and that we are headed for an absolute TRAIN WRECK that will require a major correction in the stock market, since the REAL value of these companies is NOWHERE NEAR what is being "faked" by their accounting departments and then peddled to the public. And, logic says, since we are running MASSIVE government deficits, we CAN'T keep bailing out EVERYONE -- thus the pending "train wreck" scenario.

Well, I still believe, fully and completely, that I am RIGHT in that we ARE INDEED headed for a train wreck. But, not the train wreck I expected.

I have decided that the government has made a conscious decision -- and that is, to keep the printing presses running at max capacity, and infuse WHATEVER amount of cash into the private sector is required -- WHATEVER the amount, in order to "repair" the private sector. Obama ran on a platform of change, has been deemed the "messiah," and there is NO WAY he is going to stop short of ending the depression (which is the correct term, now that we have had a 12.4% decrese in GDP over the past two quarters). It seems like the philosophy is to "fix" the balance sheets of the private sector, NO MATTER the cost. So what's the downside to this? Well, certainly this "repair" of the private sector balance sheets should "force" a "recovery." But, of course, it DESTROYS the balance sheet of the government -- to the tune of TRILLIONS. However, about this multi-trillion dollar government debt, it seems that the dems have decided one of two things (or both) -- 1. it is easier to hide, lie about, cover up, and/or ignore "involvency" or "bankrupcy" when it's on the GOVERNMENT'S balance sheet, than it is to hide it when it is on the balance sheet of the private sector; and/or 2. the government's disastrous debt load, at the end of all of this, will be SOMEONE ELSE'S problem SOME OTHER TIME -- hopefully several years into the future. In other words, government is doing what it always does -- it is taking a problem, "fixing" it in the way that is most politically-beneficial, and kicking the can down the road to be someone ELSE'S problem. End result? Obama looks like a GENIUS -- dare I say, MESSIAH. He "courageously" leads us out of disaster, puts our financial ship "on course," "restores prosperity" to Americans, while at the same time he attaches sufficient strings to the bailout money that he can smuggle government control of the private sector in through the back door, in line with his liberal, socialist philosophy. It's a win-win for him. Now, what will be the end result of this back-door socialism, this decrease in private ownership, and expansion in public control/ownership? The corresponding erosion of the freedom of we, the people -- i.e. the slow, steady death of America. Guaranteed. But, I digress.

Back on point -- I think the irrationality that I have been highlighting as being so troubling to me is the result of me trying to see things logically, mathematically. And one thing I have learned in life (mainly from trying to understand the female brain!! ;)), is that when I get this frustrated in trying to understand something (through an orderly, logical thought process), that most often the case is that there IS NO EXPLANATION TO BE FOUND when using THAT type of thought process. In those cases, I have found that I have to try and tap into that other side of my brain to understand things. And, I feel there are HUGE similarities here -- I have been unable to figure out what is going on and why, and that's because I am using a thought process that DOES NOT APPLY here.

Bottom line? As I said, I think, down the road, we will face a staggeringly-massive increase in taxes, an expansion government control, and a steady erosion of freedom -- ultimately, the end of the America that has existed for the past 220 years.

However, in the short term, our government seems to have assumed that the way to "fix" America is to "FORCE" health onto the balance sheets of corporate America through infusion of freshly-printed dollars wherever needed, while transferring the cancer onto the GOVERMENT'S balance sheet (where it can be hidden, or sold, or, perhaps, just allowed to pile up and become someone else's problem). It seems that the government has determined that it WILL NOT FAIL in this effort to force the market to rise, no matter WHAT the cost. This scenario seems to me to best explain what I have witnessed in the past few months, and so, my conclusion is that the markets will INDEED continue to go up. Our government has willed to make it so. So, at this point, I'm looking to buy. The train wreck may, just may, be "successfully" pushed into the future far enough that there are good gains to be made.

I will state here and now that I am COMPLETELY AGAINST, with every fiber of my being, the way the current government has decided to do things. It's WRONG, it's BAD FOR THE FUTURE OF OUR COUNTRY, it's UNCONSIONABLE that we as Americans have let this happen. However, I can be mad and be out of the market, or be mad and IN the market. Since this is the course that our "leaders" seem to have put us on, I guess the only option is to jump in and make some money.

Or, I could sum all of this up in one sentence -- which Warrenlm posted in this thread earlier: The government is all in, and the government always wins.

Ergo, reluctantly, despite the moral difficulties I have with all that is being done, I am now a bull! Rock on!

Steve
 
Last edited:
Very good information with thought - because I am a renegade contrarian you can feel fortunate that you have not been tagged as a criteria. Now jump into the pool and make some hard earned dollars. The Dow Theory will bring in more buying power - DJIA at 9034.69 and the DJTA at 3717.26 - then the real fun starts.
 
steveg said:
OK.

I have been racking my brain for quite awhile trying to understand what's going on. Finally, the lightbulb has gone off -- I think I have figured it out.

I now feel that there is a high probability that, yes, Birch, you are right. Everyone needs to find an oppurtune time and get in the market. Yes, I am serious.

Why do I say this? Have I abandoned all the things I have posted previously? Absolutely not. But, I think I have figured out what is going on.

I have been talking in this thread repeatedly about all the fraud and deceit and lies that I believe exist on the balance sheets of the companies in and close to the financial sector. I have been talking about how eventually this will be exposed, and that we are headed for an absolute TRAIN WRECK that will require a major correction in the stock market, since the REAL value of these companies is NOWHERE NEAR what is being "faked" by their accounting departments and then peddled to the public. And, logic says, since we are running MASSIVE government deficits, we CAN'T keep bailing out EVERYONE -- thus the pending "train wreck" scenario.

Well, I still believe, fully and completely, that I am RIGHT in that we ARE INDEED headed for a train wreck. But, not the train wreck I expected.

I have decided that the government has made a conscious decision -- and that is, to keep the printing presses running at max capacity, and infuse WHATEVER amount of cash into the private sector is required -- WHATEVER the amount, in order to "repair" the private sector. Obama ran on a platform of change, has been deemed the "messiah," and there is NO WAY he is going to stop short of ending the depression (which is the correct term, now that we have had a 12.4% decrese in GDP over the past two quarters). It seems like the philosophy is to "fix" the balance sheets of the private sector, NO MATTER the cost. So what's the downside to this? Well, certainly this "repair" of the private sector balance sheets should "force" a "recovery." But, of course, it DESTROYS the balance sheet of the government -- to the tune of TRILLIONS. However, about this multi-trillion dollar government debt, it seems that the dems have decided one of two things (or both) -- 1. it is easier to hide, lie about, cover up, and/or ignore "involvency" or "bankrupcy" when it's on the GOVERNMENT'S balance sheet, than it is to hide it when it is on the balance sheet of the private sector; and/or 2. the government's disastrous debt load, at the end of all of this, will be SOMEONE ELSE'S problem SOME OTHER TIME -- hopefully several years into the future. In other words, government is doing what it always does -- it is taking a problem, "fixing" it in the way that is most politically-beneficial, and kicking the can down the road to be someone ELSE'S problem. End result? Obama looks like a GENIUS -- dare I say, MESSIAH. He "courageously" leads us out of disaster, puts our financial ship "on course," "restores prosperity" to Americans, while at the same time he attaches sufficient strings to the bailout money that he can smuggle government control of the private sector in through the back door, in line with his liberal, socialist philosophy. It's a win-win for him. Now, what will be the end result of this back-door socialism, this decrease in private ownership, and expansion in public control/ownership? The corresponding erosion of the freedom of we, the people -- i.e. the slow, steady death of America. Guaranteed. But, I digress.

Back on point -- I think the irrationality that I have been highlighting as being so troubling to me is the result of me trying to see things logically, mathematically. And one thing I have learned in life (mainly from trying to understand the female brain!! ;)), is that when I get this frustrated in trying to understand something (through an orderly, logical thought process), that most often the case is that there IS NO EXPLANATION TO BE FOUND when using THAT type of thought process. In those cases, I have found that I have to try and tap into that other side of my brain to understand things. And, I feel there are HUGE similarities here -- I have been unable to figure out what is going on and why, and that's because I am using a thought process that DOES NOT APPLY here.

Bottom line? As I said, I think, down the road, we will face a staggeringly-massive increase in taxes, an expansion government control, and a steady erosion of freedom -- ultimately, the end of the America that has existed for the past 220 years.

However, in the short term, our government seems to have assumed that the way to "fix" America is to "FORCE" health onto the balance sheets of corporate America through infusion of freshly-printed dollars wherever needed, while transferring the cancer onto the GOVERMENT'S balance sheet (where it can be hidden, or sold, or, perhaps, just allowed to pile up and become someone else's problem). It seems that the government has determined that it WILL NOT FAIL in this effort to force the market to rise, no matter WHAT the cost. This scenario seems to me to best explain what I have witnessed in the past few months, and so, my conclusion is that the markets will INDEED continue to go up. Our government has willed to make it so. So, at this point, I'm looking to buy. The train wreck may, just may, be "successfully" pushed into the future far enough that there are good gains to be made.

I will state here and now that I am COMPLETELY AGAINST, with every fiber of my being, the way the current government has decided to do things. It's WRONG, it's BAD FOR THE FUTURE OF OUR COUNTRY, it's UNCONSIONABLE that we as Americans have let this happen. However, I can be mad and be out of the market, or be mad and IN the market. Since this is the course that our "leaders" seem to have put us on, I guess the only option is to jump in and make some money.

Or, I could sum all of this up in one sentence -- which Warrenlm posted in this thread earlier: The government is all in, and the government always wins.

Ergo, reluctantly, despite the moral difficulties I have with all that is being done, I am now a bull! Rock on!

Steve
Click to expand...

Wrong.

Go study Japan. Go look at the Nikkei, starting at 1989.

Every time we get these bear market rallies, everybody comes out screaming, "Birch is right! Birch is right".

How can you be right when you have been saying "buy..buy..Buy..." every single day since the highs in 2007. And also calling for a new bull market whenever we get a bounce?

Of course, once the market really bottoms out and the real bull market returns, Birch will be eventually be right. But in the mean time, I will try to make money in this bear market instead of riding it down so I that I can catch the bottom and be a hero.:rolleyes:

Good luck with your decision Steveg.
 
Occam's Razor

Steve,

Why not use a nice confluence of Occam's Razor principle and government incompetence.

Occam’s Razor: Bernanke has told us what his lifetime of study recommends as a solution. Ensure that the economy is flush with cash. This is primary. The Fed can fix inflation; deflation is much harder to deal with – if it can be dealt with. Thus, the Fed is ensuring that our economy does not dump into a deflation spiral. We were heading in that direction in October 2008 and early March 2009. Inflation will not rear its ugly head till deflation is beat. I think these are hard, but viable, choices.

Government Incompetence: President Obama actually believes his ‘stimulus’ is resolving the issue. He is confusing the result. The ‘stimulus’ money is not inflating the market, creating jobs, instigating change. His bloated 2010 budget is not a positive. He thinks it is. The ‘stimulus’ money won’t be obligated or expensed in any real way for years. His budget will dry up credit markets – at best. At worst (not really), he may find that folks don’t want to buy in. Will he then inflate – not his choice. I don’t thing Bernanke will inflate to satisfy lefty pork and dreams.

Now the pattern to watch: It will be nice and slow – however, not certain. At some point the economy will start perking along on a slow recovery. Housing will stabilize, commercial property will stabilize, financials will stabilize. Already the stronger banks are trying to bail out of the deal Obama’s administration is maliciously twisting them with. Housing prices in the biggest boom towns are cut in half – with more to come in the mid to high ranges. Commercial real estate is still on its downturn. When all three (and some others smarter folks are watching) start booming via inflation the Fed will start increasing short term interest rates and stop buying commercial paper in an effort to rein in inflation. My guess is we are a year away from the Fed fighting inflation. If Birch’s dream comes true – the Fed will step in with the wet blanket earlier. The stimulus spending – just another thing that will make life much harder for the next Congress and/or administration. The stupid 2010 budget – will aging oldsters and the Chinese continue buying into this idiocy. President Obama will NOT like Bernanke’s next moves.
 
Birch --

I couldn't access your link, for some reason. Get an error message.

Anyway, here's a link to an article outlining what I've mentioned that I sense from this organization -- purposely putting out "rosy" information to influence the emotions of the populace, and hopefully get a nice rise in the markets in response (no matter how contrary to the underlying facts of the economy...)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69bc7894-3b34-11de-ba91-00144feabdc0.html

Basically, this says what I have stated in this thread -- there's a concerted effort to blow sunshine up our rear ends by the current administration; the desire being that we will begin investing again and thus drive the market up when it otherwise should be down.

Will it continue to work?

Steve
 
steveg said:
-- purposely putting out "rosy" information to influence the emotions of the populace, and hopefully get a nice rise in the markets in response (no matter how contrary to the underlying facts of the economy...)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/69bc7894-3b34-11de-ba91-00144feabdc0.html

Basically, this says what I have stated in this thread -- there's a concerted effort to blow sunshine up our rear ends by the current administration; the desire being that we will begin investing again and thus drive the market up when it otherwise should be down.

Will it continue to work?

Steve
Click to expand...

Steve,
You reflect what many of us have been feeling and noted for quite some time. The lack of bad press or the exageration of whatever good can be found (even if distorted) dominates the media.

Personally I am thrilled for Birch - over these last 8 weeks - because it seems to really bring him to life and few enjoy 'gloating' more than him. The wonderful news for you and me (and all the others)who are convinced this is just a fluke is that when this ends and the TRUE NATURAL path continues it won't phase Birch because he will simply buy more shares at a lower price. In the end we will prove it was all a fluke.

We are either hugely compelled to blame politics or it is our 'natural inclination' to blame politics for anything (and everything) that seems out of order, confusing, or troubling. In all likelihood 'politics' probably has little to do with what's been happening over the past 8 weeks. Tom's Charts and Comments have largely revealed it is simply a matter of Dumb Money versus Smart Money. Dumb Money saw a bottom and started buying - which rapidly pushed the prices higher and higher - sparking more and more Dumb Money to enter the scene. The Smart Money kept retreating as the Dumb Money Escalated. When you simply look at things this way it elimates the need to project a sinister environment with high officials always working in the dark with enormous schemes and never ending plots to take everything possible before they drop the masses in the endless burning pit.

If you follow the Cycle Theories - you find that mankind is unable to alter the dominate downward swing - yet the downward swing is always associated with bounces and rallies. This last one has fooled many prominent experts because the characteristics match so perfectly some previous bottoms. To hold a BEAR Stance at this point will make you stand out but I have no problem with that because I simply follow what's happening 'Dumb Money vs Smart Money' and strive to get a clearer picture of what 'The Cycles' are indicating.
 
If I were to say that I need a gain of $21K on the week to make $500K for week number ten - is that gloating? If so I'm nonrepentant.
 
Birchtree said:
If I were to say that I need a gain of $21K on the week to make $500K for week number ten - is that gloating? If so I'm nonrepentant.
Click to expand...


Sorry my friend :embarrest: GLOATING was the wrong word to use since it is often associated with a negative connotation.

There are few who BASK in the heavenly rewards of excellent and consistent gains more than Birch. While others have remained in the shelter of the cave - trembling as they peek out - wondering when the next avalenge is going to occur; Birch has held his high risk positions and thoroughly made the most out of our latest climatic change. While many are still trying to thaw out - Birch has soaked up every trace of sunlight and grown in immense riches - and that part made it all worthwhile.

That probably conveys what I was expressing a bit better.
 
steady --

You make a good point about "dumb money" and "smart money." I don't know what indicator you look at to tell you that it is the "dumb money" that has fueled this rally, but it makes sense -- and to me it supports what I was saying about the govt. blowing sunshine up our rear ends. It sounds like you don't agree, but I am convinced that the news being released is purposefully, and falsely, rosy -- to influence investors. And who would be most influenced by this? To me, it would be the average investor -- you and I -- or, as you put it, the "dumb money." It makes sense to me that the "smart money" is smart enough to see behind the kimono, and know that they don't like what they see...

Seriously, I suggest taking a look at KD the last couple of days. He talks about the stress tests, or "farce tests" as they should more correctly be called; he also has a 5 minute youtube clip of the Fed's inspector general, appearing nothing short of CLUELESS while being questioned before congress. She is being asked about trillions of dollars worth of Fed money, both on- and off-balance sheet money, and if she is monitoring where it is going and how it is being spent. Her answers, or lack thereof, say it all...

http://market-ticker.denninger.net

Steve

Steve
 
Looks like a down day today; I made a slight adjustment to my balances to stand at 70 G, 10 I, 10 S, and 10 C. I'm hoping to catch just a slightly larger share of this leg up before it peters out. Hopefully, today is not the start of that petering-out process!

Steve
 
To help clarify some thoughts on jobless claims. "....the fact that in this recession, we still haven't exceeded the number of claims in the 1981-82 recession. As bad as it seems today, we've lived through worse, and not all that long ago. It was a lot worse in 1981-82, too, because the size of the work force was smaller then than it is today. So the same number of claims represents a larger percentage. Adjusted for the size of the work force, today's claims are just a little more than half of what they were at the 1982 peak."

Hesitation is going to be expensive.

http://www.smartmoney.com/investing/economy/acclaimed-economist-says-the-recession-is-over/
 
Birch --

I hear your point, and can't argue with you. My only point is not related to the ABSOLUTE number of job losses, but simply that each additional job loss is a potential mortgage default. And if the banks were already AT the "most severe" level, from the perspective of the stress tests, two months ago, then what can the future POSSIBLY hold except for a trend significantly lower in financials (and thus the broader market).

Steve
 
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