Birch --
I do hear you, and I understand, I think, where you are coming from. Like I've indicated before though -- my biggest concern right now is NOT the market being down. My attitude on THAT is, these things happen. Instead, my real concern is my belief in where our country is headed FOUNDATIONALLY. If this were 1929-31 or something, I like to think that I would have said "man, this stinks, it's awful, but I KNOW our country will rebound -- we are, after all, the "great experiment"; we are AMERICANS, and we WILL recover."
However, I am so concerned with the current administration, and what I believe to be their viewpoint of where we need to go as a country, that I am SCARED! I am scared for the future of this great nation; I'm scared for the existence of our capitalist economy; I truly believe that the America we have always known is ending, and a "new America" is in our future. And I don't like the looks of this "new America," nor do I trust in the growth potential in the "new America." THIS is why I think looking to history, and what has happened at the end of prior recessions/depressions, while often a good thing to do, is useless in this case.
Let me make an analogy -- let's say that you have owned a car for many years, you've maintained it well, and it's a good car. In your experience over the life of this car, you've had times when the car was "down," i.e. you had to spend some money on repairs. However, you always knew that after spending a couple hundred bucks to repair/replace some parts, that your good 'ol car would be back to its old self, good as new. Well, let's say that today you started having some car trouble, and so you had it towed in to the shop. You really aren't too worried. You are sure, based on the past and your knowledge of your car, that a few hundred bucks and you'll be back on track again. Well, what if, unbeknowst to you, one of your enemies drained the engine of oil, and drained your transmission of fluid -- and then at the same time disabled your "check engine" light and your car's temperature gauge. The mechanic calls you to tell you this, and now the worst news -- not only will it cost you more than the car is worth to fix it, but they no longer make an engine OR transmission anymore that will work well with your car -- you'll need to get an engine with 1/2 the horsepower, gets 1/2 the gas mileage, and get a transmission with 1/2 the gears. In other words, you are going to spend more than the car is worth to fix it, and once you do, you will have a car that goes 1/2 the speed, for twice the amount of gas. In other words, IT'S NO LONGER THE SAME CAR, and all along, you were mistakenly thinking that a just a couple hundred bucks and everything would be back to normal.
This is what I feel certain about, regarding our country. Yeah, we'll get it "fixed" at some point. But given the current administration, it will never, ever be the same country again (and I DON'T mean different in a better way!)
THIS is why I am pessimistic about using history as an indicator about what the "market performance graphs" are going to look like coming out of this bottom. You hear people talking about "V-shaped bottoms" and "fast down=fast up," well -- if you change fundamentally our whole country, and its economic system, I think that ALL goes out the window. I instead envision the market trace -- from fall 2008 going 10 to 15 years forward -- to look like a "check mark"; i.e. a very sharp down, and then a very subtle, gradual, slow up-trend.
Just my two cents worth. I know it sounds pessimistic and gloomy, but I think that's what will result from our "historic" election (which resulted in, IMO, the most left-leaning government in our history -- with no checks and balances in place to stop the implementation of a very radical vision for our future).
What's the good news? Well, if you believe in God, and you are right with Him, you have a much better future waiting for you once your time you've been alotted on this planet has been spent! And in alot of ways, that puts all this money stuff into its proper perspective, doesn't it?
OK, enough religious talk. I'm sure many of you won't appreciate that, so I'll get back on topic. Birch -- I don't think our long-term prospects for a return to sustained, robust growth are very good. That's all. You know the famous adage "past performance does not guarantee future results?" I think that saying was TAILOR MADE for the U.S. of A. in the 21st Century!
Steve
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