justbizness45
Member
Steveg welcome to the MB. Good luck with the market. Next week may prove interesting.
-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Steveg's Account Talk
- Thread starter steveg
- Start date
steveg
Member
mojo --
Thanks for the welcome. It's nice to be here!
justbizness45 --
Yeah, interesting is a good word...! I think the next couple of YEARS are going to be interesting, but that's another story.
It's interesting...a guy here at work is doing a poll of co-workers who are interested in markets/finances. He's asking each of us 3 questions -- what do we think the S&P high will be for the rest of the year, the low, and the Dec. 31 close price. He's then going to average them. So far, the extremes are a low of 480, a high of 1000, and I think the lowest Dec. 31 close anyone gave is about 625 and the highest about 900. It would appear at this point that our "office average" is somewhere in the mid 600s as a low, somewhere in the mid to upper 800s as a high, and an average of probably 750 to 850 for the year-end close.
Anyone on here want to chime in with their values?
Me personally -- I went 850 High, 550 Low, and 675 close Dec. 31. It will be interesting to see how it turns out...
Steve
Thanks for the welcome. It's nice to be here!
justbizness45 --
Yeah, interesting is a good word...! I think the next couple of YEARS are going to be interesting, but that's another story.
It's interesting...a guy here at work is doing a poll of co-workers who are interested in markets/finances. He's asking each of us 3 questions -- what do we think the S&P high will be for the rest of the year, the low, and the Dec. 31 close price. He's then going to average them. So far, the extremes are a low of 480, a high of 1000, and I think the lowest Dec. 31 close anyone gave is about 625 and the highest about 900. It would appear at this point that our "office average" is somewhere in the mid 600s as a low, somewhere in the mid to upper 800s as a high, and an average of probably 750 to 850 for the year-end close.
Anyone on here want to chime in with their values?
Me personally -- I went 850 High, 550 Low, and 675 close Dec. 31. It will be interesting to see how it turns out...
Steve
cmbigd4life
New member
Ah Comrade Steve,
I'm lovin' the avatar!
I'm lovin' the avatar!
justbizness45
Member
I'll go out on a limb and say you've seen the highs for the year and 520 for the low.
steveg
Member
OK -- the numbers are in.
17 of our "co-horts" here from our office chimed in, and here are the averages...
914 -- S&P high for the year, going forward...(lowest, 825; highest, 1005)
641 -- S&P low for the year, going forward...(lowest, 480; highest, 735)
793 -- S&P close, Dec. 31, 2009...(lowest, 600; highest, 930)
Thanks for your input, justbizness45. Anyone else want to weigh in?
Steve
P.S. I'm watching for CP's forecasted short-term rally into the low 800s. I'm still 33% in C, bought in at 789. If we close at or above 820, and are up the next day prior to the trade deadline, I'm selling that 33% and going all G again. I think it's a lock that we go below 700 before long...
17 of our "co-horts" here from our office chimed in, and here are the averages...
914 -- S&P high for the year, going forward...(lowest, 825; highest, 1005)
641 -- S&P low for the year, going forward...(lowest, 480; highest, 735)
793 -- S&P close, Dec. 31, 2009...(lowest, 600; highest, 930)
Thanks for your input, justbizness45. Anyone else want to weigh in?
Steve
P.S. I'm watching for CP's forecasted short-term rally into the low 800s. I'm still 33% in C, bought in at 789. If we close at or above 820, and are up the next day prior to the trade deadline, I'm selling that 33% and going all G again. I think it's a lock that we go below 700 before long...
steveg
Member
Well, looks like my hope for a rally to 820 or so is gone -- in fact, I agree completely with CP's latest chart. The guy swan-diving off the cliff on his chart pretty much sums up my outlook on the market from here forward...
So, it looks like I'm waiting for my next buy opportunity -- I'll probably throw in another 15-30 percent or so once we reach the upper 600s or thereabouts...
Steve
So, it looks like I'm waiting for my next buy opportunity -- I'll probably throw in another 15-30 percent or so once we reach the upper 600s or thereabouts...
Steve
Last edited:
steveg
Member
Hey --
Has anyone else heard anything about a plan floating around in Washington somewhere, where they are considering replacing all the $ lost in 401(K)s, but on the condition that you'd have to agree to "sign over" your 401(K) to the government -- for them to distribute to you at some fixed rate upon your retirement?
I have just heard bits and pieces, but wanted to know if anyone can confirm and/or add more details. NOT, mind you, because I would consider such an offer. NO WAY am I signing over ANYTHING to the government. It's just that if this is being floated, it will further raise my suspicions of what this administration is up to.
Is there anyone else here who, like me, fears that somewhere down the road, the "rules" will be re-written, such that retirees with decent 401(K) balances will be deemed "rich" -- and thus subject to an overwhelmingly-imposing tax burden on these retirement accounts (some type of "special" tax), as opposed to standard income tax rates? I also hear alot of folks talking about putting less into 401(K) plans in favor of Roth IRAs -- as they rightly feel that the tax rates will be higher later, than now -- and thus would rather pay taxes on the money now instead of later. While this makes sense on the surface, can some one tell me exactly what it is that would prevent THOSE rules from being re-written also -- such that you are taxed NO ONLY on the front end, but then on the BACK END as well (instead of tax-free withdrawals)? I absolutely feel that both of these scenarios (the 401(K) "special tax" and the Roth IRA rules being re-written to allow taxation upon withdrawal) WILL occur; I simply don't know what recourse we have. I don't think there will be ANY way to shelter our lifetime savings from a crippling future tax burden. Maybe putting it under the mattress, or in mason jars in the back yard -- while getting killed as the real value of the cash becomes less and less due to inflation -- might still be better than what will likely be a massive future tax burden on our savings. After all, SOMEONE is going to have to pay for the trillions and trillions of dollars of money being printed and tacked directly to our national debt -- in order to "bail out" the liars, cheats, and greed-obsessed...
Steve
Has anyone else heard anything about a plan floating around in Washington somewhere, where they are considering replacing all the $ lost in 401(K)s, but on the condition that you'd have to agree to "sign over" your 401(K) to the government -- for them to distribute to you at some fixed rate upon your retirement?
I have just heard bits and pieces, but wanted to know if anyone can confirm and/or add more details. NOT, mind you, because I would consider such an offer. NO WAY am I signing over ANYTHING to the government. It's just that if this is being floated, it will further raise my suspicions of what this administration is up to.
Is there anyone else here who, like me, fears that somewhere down the road, the "rules" will be re-written, such that retirees with decent 401(K) balances will be deemed "rich" -- and thus subject to an overwhelmingly-imposing tax burden on these retirement accounts (some type of "special" tax), as opposed to standard income tax rates? I also hear alot of folks talking about putting less into 401(K) plans in favor of Roth IRAs -- as they rightly feel that the tax rates will be higher later, than now -- and thus would rather pay taxes on the money now instead of later. While this makes sense on the surface, can some one tell me exactly what it is that would prevent THOSE rules from being re-written also -- such that you are taxed NO ONLY on the front end, but then on the BACK END as well (instead of tax-free withdrawals)? I absolutely feel that both of these scenarios (the 401(K) "special tax" and the Roth IRA rules being re-written to allow taxation upon withdrawal) WILL occur; I simply don't know what recourse we have. I don't think there will be ANY way to shelter our lifetime savings from a crippling future tax burden. Maybe putting it under the mattress, or in mason jars in the back yard -- while getting killed as the real value of the cash becomes less and less due to inflation -- might still be better than what will likely be a massive future tax burden on our savings. After all, SOMEONE is going to have to pay for the trillions and trillions of dollars of money being printed and tacked directly to our national debt -- in order to "bail out" the liars, cheats, and greed-obsessed...
Steve
Boghie
Well-known member
Everybody Gets Even More Social Security
SteveG,
You are referencing a brilliant plan by some slug that appeared before Congress in August 2008 - if my addled mind is correct.
The plan hinged on an offer to replac 401(k) assets with something like a ‘G Fund’ with a government guaranteed interest rate. Then you, your employer, and the government would each put money in the fund. And, if I remember correctly, the annual limits were like $4/5000. An additional - and truely wonderful - element of this brilliant idea is that those who elect to remain in their 401(k) plans would have their tax breaks scaled back. You don’t want to be hiding too much casholla from the Governments Needy Hand!
Just think, your money would double in 16 years :blink:
Had I been in that plan for the last twenty years I would be well on my way toward a mid-grade Alpo dinner menu in my golden years
SteveG,
You are referencing a brilliant plan by some slug that appeared before Congress in August 2008 - if my addled mind is correct.
The plan hinged on an offer to replac 401(k) assets with something like a ‘G Fund’ with a government guaranteed interest rate. Then you, your employer, and the government would each put money in the fund. And, if I remember correctly, the annual limits were like $4/5000. An additional - and truely wonderful - element of this brilliant idea is that those who elect to remain in their 401(k) plans would have their tax breaks scaled back. You don’t want to be hiding too much casholla from the Governments Needy Hand!
Just think, your money would double in 16 years :blink:
Had I been in that plan for the last twenty years I would be well on my way toward a mid-grade Alpo dinner menu in my golden years
WorkFE
Well-known member
Well lets see. You crack smokers do such a fabulous job managing the huge tax revenues that you currently collect that I would love to go into a partnership in which case sounds like SS2 and since you are doing such a great job with that I think I will double down.
NOT. GO AWAY YOU MORONS
NOT. GO AWAY YOU MORONS
Boghie
Well-known member
Like WorkFE, I feel extremely confident in the Federal Government managing my retirement in the 'Gore Lock Box'. The joy of using assets in my CongressCritter managed 'Lock Box' for Global Warming Alleviation efforts - such would be an investment, of course /sarcasm
Here is a deal I would offer our Gubmint.
I will offer not to accept ANY Social Security Benefits - even though I have paid into the 'benefit' for 25 years - if you allow me to redirect half of my Social Security payments into my TSP account. I would also require that the government make no new demands on me regarding Social Security payments or contributions or any term lawyers can think of (increasing the SS limit or the percentage of my income going to the boondoggle).
So, the Feds would keep half of my benefits and not have to pay me anything at any time. I would get an immediate 7.5% increase in contributions toward my 401(k) (TSP).
And, I would not be forced to an economic life on the Lilly Pad. Nor would I be forced to live on whatever the Gubmint thinks I should live on. I mean, someday those schlumps (me too I guess - yuk, yuk) are going to jigger the Social Security formula, age, or tax rate so they can keep on chooglin'.
More than a fair deal, wouldn't you say.
Here is a deal I would offer our Gubmint.
I will offer not to accept ANY Social Security Benefits - even though I have paid into the 'benefit' for 25 years - if you allow me to redirect half of my Social Security payments into my TSP account. I would also require that the government make no new demands on me regarding Social Security payments or contributions or any term lawyers can think of (increasing the SS limit or the percentage of my income going to the boondoggle).
So, the Feds would keep half of my benefits and not have to pay me anything at any time. I would get an immediate 7.5% increase in contributions toward my 401(k) (TSP).
And, I would not be forced to an economic life on the Lilly Pad. Nor would I be forced to live on whatever the Gubmint thinks I should live on. I mean, someday those schlumps (me too I guess - yuk, yuk) are going to jigger the Social Security formula, age, or tax rate so they can keep on chooglin'.
More than a fair deal, wouldn't you say.
Gumby
Active member
Sounds like a reasonable plan.......but they have already raided ths SS fund. No more money to give out .....except to the Bankers and AIG
steveg
Member
Yeah, Boghie.
Like Gumby said -- sounds like a decent plan, except that I absolutely, POSITIVELY GUARANTEE that our fearless leaders in Washington will NEVER do ANYTHING which would mean taking less money into the Social Security fund. Matter of fact, I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before they completely remove the "wage cap" (set at $106,800 for 2009) on the FICA tax.
Steve
Like Gumby said -- sounds like a decent plan, except that I absolutely, POSITIVELY GUARANTEE that our fearless leaders in Washington will NEVER do ANYTHING which would mean taking less money into the Social Security fund. Matter of fact, I'm guessing it's only a matter of time before they completely remove the "wage cap" (set at $106,800 for 2009) on the FICA tax.
Steve
steveg
Member
Well, we reached the upper 600s S&P (barely) -- which was one of my "buy" targets -- but we only touched it briefly -- today were back up to around 712. I had planned to put in 33% C once we fell into the upper 600s, but I'm not so sure now...I am not confident at all that we are anywhere near the bottom -- with the idiocy I hear coming from our government. I might wait longer to push in some more chips...
Besides -- I saw our President say yesterday that it's a good time to buy stocks; that adds nothing but certainty to my gut feeling that this is thus NOWHERE CLOSE to the right time to buy stocks!
Steve
Besides -- I saw our President say yesterday that it's a good time to buy stocks; that adds nothing but certainty to my gut feeling that this is thus NOWHERE CLOSE to the right time to buy stocks!
Steve
Boghie
Well-known member
Only GD I has been worse...
SteveG,
I don't like what I am seeing. I know that 'Dirty Barry' still has a round in his chamber of ignorance. But, this is America. He really doesn't control me, you, or the economy. He can make all of our lives worse, but he cannot kill the American economy. His change is now under a watchful eye (el Rusbo, et al.) :nuts:
Anyway, to make money ya got to be in the game. Given that this is the second worst equities market in our history means it probably will not dump too much lower. If you do the math I'll bet you could sleep on the allocation you planned even with another 20% dive. I used the TSP Calculator thingy to test my DCA out. And, you are talking about 12 - 20 points (a 3% decline).
Hope & Change :embarrest:
SteveG,
I don't like what I am seeing. I know that 'Dirty Barry' still has a round in his chamber of ignorance. But, this is America. He really doesn't control me, you, or the economy. He can make all of our lives worse, but he cannot kill the American economy. His change is now under a watchful eye (el Rusbo, et al.) :nuts:
Anyway, to make money ya got to be in the game. Given that this is the second worst equities market in our history means it probably will not dump too much lower. If you do the math I'll bet you could sleep on the allocation you planned even with another 20% dive. I used the TSP Calculator thingy to test my DCA out. And, you are talking about 12 - 20 points (a 3% decline).
Hope & Change :embarrest:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Steveg,
Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes, and just do it. Not easy, but in the investing business nothing is easy except losing money. Besides any move up could easily develope into a better than a 50% rally. There's more cash available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades.
Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes, and just do it. Not easy, but in the investing business nothing is easy except losing money. Besides any move up could easily develope into a better than a 50% rally. There's more cash available to buy shares than at any time in almost two decades.
steveg
Member
Boghie --
You say that Pres. Barry can't kill our economy, but I think I might beg to differ. My take on things is that those manning our current Executive and Legislative branches of government aren't too keen on this whole "capitalism" idea. And if that's true, and they get their way in terms of "change," then I don't think we can look to the past for any sense of what the future holds for our country.
Birchtree, I hear you...and that's been one of my concerns -- since I took so much loss on the way down, I can't AFFORD to miss the ride back up, ASSUMING, of course, that a true bull run is in fact in the cards for our future. On the other hand, though -- like I was saying above, I don't know if we can assume that since OTHER major down times have been followed by aggressive "up" periods, that this market will do the same. Yeah, all the "talking heads" are talking about a big bull run looming in our future, because, after all, that's what has happened historically. But, given the "hatred" of capitalism, both overt and covert, that you hear espoused by those now running the show, and the policies being implemented that likewise reflect, in my opinion, this deep disdain, I wonder if our economy is CAPABLE of a strong, sustained period of gains. I think things are fundamentally changing right now, in a way that none of us can quite imagine. I HOPE, for the love of our country, that I am wrong...
Having said all that, I took the middle ground, and put 17% into C today. Not the full 33% I had planned if we reached the upper 600s, but enough to be sitting at 50% C, 50% G. An unexpected rally to the low 800s and I'd likely look to sell; a drop into the upper 500s and I'd be looking to put at least 25% more in. Bottom line, I'm very bearish (and yet realize that at least historically, it is exactly when things look the most bleak that a new bull run begins). While I recognize the possibility of a bull, I put the odds at 75% that we still have 20-25%% more on the down side (and I REALLY hope that's ALL it is...for our country's sake).
Of course, I say all this BEFORE I read Denninger's latest chapter of Revelation. One of my co-workers told me I NEED to read his latest...sounds like he's "opened another seal..."
Steve
You say that Pres. Barry can't kill our economy, but I think I might beg to differ. My take on things is that those manning our current Executive and Legislative branches of government aren't too keen on this whole "capitalism" idea. And if that's true, and they get their way in terms of "change," then I don't think we can look to the past for any sense of what the future holds for our country.
Birchtree, I hear you...and that's been one of my concerns -- since I took so much loss on the way down, I can't AFFORD to miss the ride back up, ASSUMING, of course, that a true bull run is in fact in the cards for our future. On the other hand, though -- like I was saying above, I don't know if we can assume that since OTHER major down times have been followed by aggressive "up" periods, that this market will do the same. Yeah, all the "talking heads" are talking about a big bull run looming in our future, because, after all, that's what has happened historically. But, given the "hatred" of capitalism, both overt and covert, that you hear espoused by those now running the show, and the policies being implemented that likewise reflect, in my opinion, this deep disdain, I wonder if our economy is CAPABLE of a strong, sustained period of gains. I think things are fundamentally changing right now, in a way that none of us can quite imagine. I HOPE, for the love of our country, that I am wrong...
Having said all that, I took the middle ground, and put 17% into C today. Not the full 33% I had planned if we reached the upper 600s, but enough to be sitting at 50% C, 50% G. An unexpected rally to the low 800s and I'd likely look to sell; a drop into the upper 500s and I'd be looking to put at least 25% more in. Bottom line, I'm very bearish (and yet realize that at least historically, it is exactly when things look the most bleak that a new bull run begins). While I recognize the possibility of a bull, I put the odds at 75% that we still have 20-25%% more on the down side (and I REALLY hope that's ALL it is...for our country's sake).
Of course, I say all this BEFORE I read Denninger's latest chapter of Revelation. One of my co-workers told me I NEED to read his latest...sounds like he's "opened another seal..."
Steve
