Steel_Magnolia's Account Talk

[Steel_Magnolia]

Good to have your visit, J my friend, and Mcglives, thank you for the caring welcome back!



Here is what my charts look like today. As you can see on the charts, AGG (F fund analog) came out of the Bollinger squeeze to the down side and is also below the 18 and 45 day moving averages. Nothing much to recommend it for TSP Funders. EFA (I fund analog) is barely above the 45 dma but below the 18 dma so nothing to recommend it either. IWM (S fund analog) is barely above both 18 and 45 dma but too close to those lines for me. So pride of place goes to SPY (C fund analog), which is well above the 45 dma and above the 18 dma although too close to it for my comfort level.

The top board shows none of the funds above a 75 stochastic, all have a negative weekly Money Stream, and the MS (money stream) Daily shows all but AGG to be in negative figures. Given all those facts, if I had the choice I think I'd be right here:



The G Fund Garage!

Lady

 

[Minnow]

I'm always late to the game it seems. Missed you Ann. And, I echo everyone's sentiments to keep up with the TA... you crazy biker chick. :laugh:

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Minnow, this biker chick appreciates your visit and kind words!



Equities just keep going up. Even though we know that it is artificially induced it is amazing to watch. Looking at the daily Money Stream (MS) it looks like even more folks are getting nervous, as the F Fund analog is the only one in the green. With the C and S Fund analogs at the top of their Bollinger Bands a pullback would be expected but with this market it's hard to depend on the rules.

Yesterday, in the P and F Chart thread that James started, JTH said something about if he had to choose only one indicator it would be P&F Charts and that the long tail up on the C Fund analog was making him expect a pullback. I couldn't agree more with his choice of indicators and his opinion on that one. But the market is so artificially propped up that sometimes the rules are going out the window.

In my IRA account I have a chunk of money in CMG and because it is showing a long tail up I've put a tight trailing stop on it. It's too bad that there aren't Stop Losses in TSP accounts because they would be invaluable in this market. If I still had a TSP account I don't think I could stand to be 100% in any fund. I think I'd probably have to be a third in each of G, C and S. And then I'd still be in a cold sweat at the opening bell every morning.....

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Equities aren't looking shiny this morning. I think this is just a consolidation day. At least that's the way I'm positioning my IRA account (bought more PCLN today while it was down). Because the C and S Fund analogs are still above their 18 day moving averages I wouldn't be to concerned about the down time quite yet. And C Fund still looks slightly stronger than S Fund does to me.

And just a note of clarification for the new folks on the forum who may not know me as well. The 'biker chick' term is a joke with a long history here. I'm very much the pearls and lace type - - about as far from a biker chick as you can get. Just to avoid any misunderstandings. [big grin]

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

First of all, thank you, RealMoneyIssues, for the 'like'. It means a lot! And on to the markets.



It looks to me like more and more people are deciding that they need to be out of the markets. The F Fund analog, AGG, is becoming the popular place to be. SPY has once again bounced off its 18 day moving average but it is going to break through one of these days. IWM is also resting right at its 18 day average and EFA is caught between the 18 day acting as resistance and the 45 day moving average as support.

But as far as charts go the AGG isn't looking healthy yet either, IMO. It's in an uptrend and has just crossed the 18 day average but the 18 day is still below the 45 day.



Switching to my cheatsheet, you can see that no money is moving into equities anymore (MS Daily) and that the weekly money stream also shows much more money flowing into the F Fund analog. And the price trends vs. market columns also show that switch from equities to the bond market in price trend. It's another day when I wish I still had access to the G Fund garage!!

As far as my IRA goes in the last week, I bought PCLN and FAST back too quickly and so far they are still losing trades. I'll hold on to them a little longer but they are approaching their stops (52.89 for FAST and 709.34 for PCLN) so we'll see how much longer they last. But that's the nature of the market. I do my due diligence and then take my chances like everyone else.

One last thought: There's been a lot of chatter about STEV and STVF, both penny stocks. I'd like to put in a word of caution about them and any penny stocks to the new folks on the site who may not be aware of the dangers of investing in them. If you invest in penny stocks it's even more of a gamble that usual. If I invest in anything with a price point of less than $10, even after I dig out everything I can find about the company, I hardly ever come out with a winning trade. I own a few shares of STEV just because I love the product. When I heard about STVF I dug through what I could find and decided not to invest (throw good money after bad, maybe) because I can't find out anything that makes me think it's anything more than a pyramid scheme.

In the interest of showing the danger of penny stocks, I'll tell you that I also own a few shares of OREX. Nope, not a vacuum cleaner. [grin] It's a company that has a weight-loss drug that was looking good for FDA approval ... until yesterday. It's lost about 20% of value in a 24 hour span. And I can't set stops on penny stocks. [frownie face] Since I own such a small amount I'm going to hang on to the stock to see how well it does with European sales. But penny stocks are the stock market version of a lottery ticket. Sometimes you hit an AAPL but they're mostly lemons.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

...
One last thought: There's been a lot of chatter about STEV and STVF, both penny stocks. I'd like to put in a word of caution about them and any penny stocks to the new folks on the site who may not be aware of the dangers of investing in them. If you invest in penny stocks it's even more of a gamble that usual. If I invest in anything with a price point of less than $10, even after I dig out everything I can find about the company, I hardly ever come out with a winning trade. I own a few shares of STEV just because I love the product. When I heard about STVF I dug through what I could find and decided not to invest (throw good money after bad, maybe) because I can't find out anything that makes me think it's anything more than a pyramid scheme.

In the interest of showing the danger of penny stocks, I'll tell you that I also own a few shares of OREX. Nope, not a vacuum cleaner. [grin] It's a company that has a weight-loss drug that was looking good for FDA approval ... until yesterday. It's lost about 20% of value in a 24 hour span. And I can't set stops on penny stocks. [frownie face] Since I own such a small amount I'm going to hang on to the stock to see how well it does with European sales. But penny stocks are the stock market version of a lottery ticket. Sometimes you hit an AAPL but they're mostly lemons.

Or am I all wet?

I just saw a portfolio that won Marketocracy and Morningstar awards and most of the stock prices are under ten bucks. Is it just that I suck at picking penny stocks?

I'll furnish the warm chocolate chip cookies and fluffy couches. Everyone else please furnish the opinions. What is your opinion about penny stocks?

 

[nasa1974]

Or am I all wet?

I just saw a portfolio that won Marketocracy and Morningstar awards and most of the stock prices are under ten bucks. Is it just that I suck at picking penny stocks?

I'll furnish the warm chocolate chip cookies and fluffy couches. Everyone else please furnish the opinions. What is your opinion about penny stocks?

There is always one diamond in the rough. I'm just not the one that picks it.

 

[jpcavin]

Or am I all wet?

I just saw a portfolio that won Marketocracy and Morningstar awards and most of the stock prices are under ten bucks. Is it just that I suck at picking penny stocks?

I'll furnish the warm chocolate chip cookies and fluffy couches. Everyone else please furnish the opinions. What is your opinion about penny stocks?

Hey Anne. Glad to see you posting again.
My opinion on Penny Stocks is that it's a gamble. Like the lottery, you hope you get lucky but you know that you most likely wont get that dollar back. I own a couple of penny stocks just for fun. PEIX is one of them, don't recall the other two right now. Combined, I spent $56.95 for the three. If they go up in value, I got a lucky break. If they fail, I'm not going to lose any sleep over losing $60 bucks. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Yesterday's downward action did technical damage to the charts. As you can see below, even SPY is now below its 20 day moving average.



None of the funds look attractive right now. Here are my notes on each fund. The small boxes to the right with unreadable captions have to do with the Ichimoku Clouds indicator. Rather than trying to explain each one I'll just say that green and blue checks are good signs and red checks are bad signs.



If you're a person who doesn't take risks with their account then this is a great time to be in the G Garage. If you're a contrarian, it's a great time to buy. Just my opinion.

And while you're deciding which kind of investor you are, have a raisin-filled cookie. I'm tending grandkids today so made a batch of them. Get'em while they're still warm!

 

[MrJohnRoss]

Very nice analysis, Ann! (not sure if I picked the right name out of 6). What platform do you use? Looks like you're very comfortable with it.

Agree with you on penny stocks, BTW. I got lucky and got out of STVF before the collapse. Others weren't so lucky, including my boss. (gulp). :blink:

Looks like I'll be heading to the lilly pad today. How about you?

Good luck!

JR

 

[Khotso]

Ditto what JR said. Think I'll be bailing as well -- bad trade this time!

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

First of all, thanks to Jason, MrJohnRoss, Mapper and Khotso for the 'likes' and for the rep points. And the smile I got from them!

In answer to your question, MrJohnRoss, the platform I use is the paid version of JTH's favorite, freestockcharts.com. It was developed by Worden and is called TC2000. I use the gold membership which costs me about $30 a month. The platform is always called 'beta' because they are always working on upgrades to what the platform can do. And the charting and scanning capabilities are incredible. They have great web training too. Others may have a different opinion but I can't speak highly enough of them.

Okay, enough of that, on to the charts.



I've given EFA, the I Fund analog, pride of place today only because it has broken down through the Bollinger Band for three days in a row. That means that it will be expected to have an upward bias because generally in the past there has been a 'snapback' in these situations to bring the fund back up into the lower band. Even if it happens, however, it would be a short term play.



As you can see from my charting notes here, the only fund that looks healthy at the moment is the F Fund analog, AGG. And it's not doing that great. If I was the nervous sort I'd be in the G Fund Garage right now. If I was the kind of investor that liked to buy low I'd probably be going in 50/50 C and S. Just my opinion only. My crystal ball is in the shop for repairs.

 

[Birchtree]

With these low natural gas prices I continue to add to my LNG position. They are building an export terminal to supply liquified natural gas to Japan.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

With these low natural gas prices I continue to add to my LNG position. They are building an export terminal to supply liquified natural gas to Japan.

After looking at the charts I can see why you like this stock! It wasn't on my radar but it looks like it should have been. Thanks for the visit, my friend.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

With these low natural gas prices I continue to add to my LNG position. They are building an export terminal to supply liquified natural gas to Japan.

After looking at the charts I can see why you like this stock! It wasn't on my radar but it looks like it should have been. ....

I was thinking about adding this to my own portfolio but I'm going to have to do a lot more digging first. I just noticed that LNG's primary parameters, debt-to-equity-ratio, sucks swamp water. Maybe because of all the outlay for the export terminal? Study, study, study. But I'm going to still give this one a careful consideration. Thanks again!

 

[Birchtree]

The price currently at $16.02 - here are my DCA prices: $10.05, $8.28, $10.18, $12.75, $15.00, $15.48, $14.65. Current price of a btu is $2.02 and goes for upwards of $8/btu on the open global markets.

 

[alevin]

I was thinking about adding this to my own portfolio but I'm going to have to do a lot more digging first. I just noticed that LNG's primary parameters, debt-to-equity-ratio, sucks swamp water. Maybe because of all the outlay for the export terminal? Study, study, study. But I'm going to still give this one a careful consideration. Thanks again!

Ann, FWIW, I've had LNG on my radar for some time, among others. My problem is I'm currently trying to learn to do Risk:Reward analysis combined with related position-sizing. I overate on some of my last choices sizewise, they've given me indigestion between that and not figuring out the risk:reward balance or what appropriate risk:reward needed to be before buying in, so I need to slow down and do some more learning before I bite on anything else.

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

Hi alevin! Great to hear from you here, K my friend! The support-resistance thing is one of the main reasons I love P&F charts. It really clears up the risk/reward picture for me to look at a point and figure chart. That's the only thing I use stockcharts.com for anymore, because even though I love the TC2000 platform, it doesn't do P&F.

And speaking of TC2000, here are my TSP charts that I make using TC2000:



EFA popped back up into the Bollinger Band as expected but I think that AGG looks the strongest of all the funds at the current time. But 'strongest' may be the wrong word to use. Because when looking at these charts you kind of have to choose the least worst rather than choosing the best! I think if I still had a TSP account it would be right here until a trend became more apparent:



Y'all be careful out there!

 

[Steel_Magnolia]

The technical charts confirm once again what the P&F charts are telling us. If you're not in the G Garage then F Fund (AGG) is a good place to be right now.



And my personal note chart just says the same thing that everything else seems to say. F Fund. Be there. [grin]

Hope everyone has a great week! And while you're here, have a sugar cookie, chewy and warm from the oven. Y'all be careful out there.

 

[MaStA]

Thank you for the update on what you are seeing! I made some chocolate chip almond cookies this weekend that were yummy.