Steadygain's Account Talk

[alevin]

If this is a BEAR MARKET - how will we as a group move forward; especially if it goes on for months. it will be an experience I've never had here before. Hopefully a real BEAR MARKET will help us all to see how trivial other things are in comparrison.

Steady, the way I see it, we really ARE a group, how will we move forward? the same way we have been-sharing information that we all need to know about the retirement systems we find ourselves in as a common bond, sharing other information as seems fit, cheering one another's successes-in the market or otherwise; condoling the losses-in the market or otherwise;

learning from one another's "learning moments" and sharing our own; finding courage and practicing patience as modeled by our chosen role models among the many possibilities here. Laughing with one another, taking breaks from sometimes painful immediate market conditions to remind ourselves there are other interests and experiences in our lives that connect us in different and more rewarding ways than the market ever could. the market is soulless, we are not.

 

[Birchtree]

Very nice words there alevin. The natural instinct of all of us is to seek safety and shelter, unfortunately at the exact same time when we should be aggressive and risk tolerant. Those who do well in the market understand this natural human tendency and they consistently work against it when others are doing the exact opposite. The biggest surprise for the majority going forward would be for a day to day advance in the face of everything terrible - I'm looking for this to happen. So far we have three higher bottoms on the SPX at 1200.44, 1217.23 and now 1224.51 - we will have to see how tomorrow plays out. To stay true to your investing strategy, you must act the opposite of how you feel. I'll be doing some buying tomorrow, again. The NYA was down 297 points to 7871.15 so I feel down right terrible - but I will push ahead and continue to buy the stinky stuff.

 

[Steadygain]

Taxpayer dollars should not "enrich the same individuals who are responsible for preventable financial problems that have weakened Fannie's and Freddie's ability to weather the current crisis in the financial markets."
Former Fannie CEO Daniel Mudd is due to receive up to $8.4 million in compensation, while Richard Syron, Freddie Mac's former chief executive is due to receive up to $15.5 million, according to David Schmidt, a senior consultant at executive compensation consulting firm James F. Reda & Associates.
Syron's package, Schmidt said, is "very unusual" because it allows him to receive $8.8 million in cash to replace stock grants and options that are now worth little or nothing.


www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D933GB800.htm



I'll try a lot harder to be less critical; cheer for the winners; grieve for the ones who are losing; and stay in the sidelines during controversial issues.


You're right we should strive to be Team Players - working together for the betterment of everyone.

What I meant by my question is meaningless now. I simply meant if we were in a Bear Market, then no one would be looking for the next entry point (or so I thought) and that everyone would remain on the Lilly Pad for months on end.


Forgive my narrow mindedness - at that moment I essentially did not consider others being ready to jump back in. So you're right - in the days and weeks to come there will not be a "dull moment" - as many are ready to jump back in and others are ready to jump out. The best thing I can do is sit quietly and enjoy the show.

 

[Corepuncher]

Very nice words there alevin. The natural instinct of all of us is to seek safety and shelter, unfortunately at the exact same time when we should be aggressive and risk tolerant. Those who do well in the market understand this natural human tendency and they consistently work against it when others are doing the exact opposite. The biggest surprise for the majority going forward would be for a day to day advance in the face of everything terrible - I'm looking for this to happen. So far we have three higher bottoms on the SPX at 1200.44, 1217.23 and now 1224.51 - we will have to see how tomorrow plays out. To stay true to your investing strategy, you must act the opposite of how you feel. I'll be doing some buying tomorrow, again. The NYA was down 297 points to 7871.15 so I feel down right terrible - but I will push ahead and continue to buy the stinky stuff.

Agree, one of the best buys I ever made was on July 15th when I felt like throwing up. I was thinking, "if we are supposed to buy fear, this is it, because I'm scared we will crash". We didn't, and I rode a nice rally and sold.

However, look at the VIX. It is nowhere near capitulation levels, AND, I feel we are setting ourselves up for an even bigger fall since some people bought into the "bottom is in" mantra. When people start looking around and can't find a place to put their money...when the 1200 bottom fails...when more firms go under...I could keep going on.

The bottom line is there are is a lot of "first time in history...", which makes basing moves on the past unreliable, IMO.

We are almost out of ammo.

 

[Corepuncher]

Forgive my narrow mindedness - at that moment I essentially did not consider others being ready to jump back in. So you're right - in the days and weeks to come there will not be a "dull moment" - as many are ready to jump back in and others are ready to jump out. The best thing I can do is sit quietly and enjoy the show.

Although it is a bear market, I am trying to catch some of the bear rallies. Using the last 20 years, the long term moving average crossover method works great. The last signal to sell came in January, and you may choose to stay out for along time until the averages cross back over. That is a perfectly viable, and safe option. I make my trades with the macro economics in mind...in my head I'm always thinking it's a bear market so get in and out relatively quickly. The big test for me will be to let it ride during a bull market...because your chances of screwing up are much, much higher.

 

[Steadygain]

CP and Birch,
I honestly appreciate your input but I'm no longer looking for days like yesterday to jump in for a quick bounce. Birch, I'm just not a Buy and Holder - especially when my heart is telling me it's a Bear Market.

I am now convinced that the Financial Sector DAMAGE was way worse than previously imagined. Over the past year when the FED had $300B Bail Outs scattered here and there I still thought "Everything is cool, they are on top of it and it will pan out." When Bear Steans actually WENT UNDER and JPMorgan Chase was essentially held at gun point and forced to buy them out for $2 a share (with huge offerings of cash to close the deal) - I still thought "No Big Deal".

I honestly believed Fannie/Freddie was THE LAST - that they purposely saved the biggest and most significant for last; and still thought the plan to turn it around was an excellent plan.

So I saw the whole event as a mere Correction and was not concerned with a BEAR MARKET.

My TSP Investments are now under a different strategy altogether. I believe LEHMAN is simply a sign or symptom of a SERIOUS PROBLEM that has damaged essentially every Financial Institution. Barclays and all the other Banks are also suffering.

When things are drastic - MORE DRASTIC MEASURES have to be taken. MONEY needs to be gathered and that will be done by taking REAL ESTATE; shutting down the smaller businesses; largely reducing the work force of the larger businesses; raising prices; reducing pay and benefits; increasing taxes.

Friends - Please know I am not suggesting anyone take my point of view; I'm simply letting you know that My Heart is much more at peace staying in G Fund and letting things ride. I hope you all the very best - and don't forget Show Me got over a 10% Gain 12/08 - so anything is possible. But I have to do things my way.

 

[Guest2]

I'm just not a Buy and Holder - especially when my heart is telling me it's a Bear Market.

Steady,

Even if you had assets in other vehicles and/or you have more money
then you know what to do with, I find it difficult to understand the
strategy of buy and hold. Even if you have the time to eventually off
set the losses. Why lose so much money in the interum. Maybe because
your other assets are offsetting the loss? Maybe because its proven to
give you greater gains in the long run? Thats BS plain and simple. A loss,
is a loss, is a loss. Even if time proves to be beneficial.

The (I) Fund is currently down -23.82% YTD. The loss of future gains on
that money (even if it was in the G Fund), coupled with the existing loss
is a hit not many can absorb. Figure in the IFT limits and the time we have
left before retirement and its just plain dumb to wait for the return of the
Bull by just leaving money in any Risk Fund. In this Market, you could have
pulled your money out of the (I) Fund for September and currently you
would have saved 7.59% of that 23.82%.

Bottom Line: In a Bull Market, you must try to make more then the Risk
Funds have to offer. In a Bear Market, you must try to limit the loses that
those risk funds are experiencing. Don't give up as there's going to be
opportunities out there to take advantage of. But for now, your thoughts
are cautionary and wise. Even if you miss the bottom or a bounce off
negative overreaction, I believe your alot smarter then anyone sitting in
the TSP Risk Funds with unconditional vigor.

 

[Steadygain]

Squalebear,
The only thing that comes close to reading your posts is Ella.

I took her on a long walk last evening and occasionally would say, "Who's that Ella". On hearing this she immediately gets 'pumped up' lifts her head, her tail is high and curved in towards her and she pulls hard against the leach - all this communicating "What, where are they - let me at them" SHE IS IN SUPER PROTECTION MODE.

The whole time I'm talking with her - constantly reminding her how beautiful she is, what a good girl she is and stuff like that.

Then the best part comes when I take her back in the house. She'll lay down in our family room (the larger and more used living room) and I'll lay down beside her - take off her collar and begin stroking her face and massaging her neck.

The way I feel when I see her expression, and feel the muscles so loose in my fingers - is how I feel when I read your posts.

Thank you and may God's richest blessings shower you.

 

[Guest2]

You honor me with your thoughts and kind words.
Honestly, I believe that I'm not worthy of such a
analogy. Yesterday was painful, there's no doubt
about it. Today might not be any different, even
if the market is showing a small sign of green at
this time. It most certainly won't offset yesterdays
losses at it's current levels. But I made the decision
to accept more pain and stay in a bit longer. By the
time I come to my senses, I'm definately going to
need a "Red Couch" appointment to get rid of the
emotions which can lead to worse decisions. Your
the best !

 

[Corepuncher]

Just saw a little bit on CNBC with Gasparino. I got the distinct feeling that he basically has no idea when we will get through this, he has no idea how places like Lehman are even gonna make money, etc etc. I heard the recession but then a quick "depression" in there as well...maybe he was just talking about financials but that is not good. I assume he rubs elbows with fairly smart money...and after listening to him, I am even more confident in my longer term bearish outlook.

 

[Steadygain]

Just saw a little bit on CNBC with Gasparino. I got the distinct feeling that he basically has no idea when we will get through this, he has no idea how places like Lehman are even gonna make money, etc etc. I heard the recession but then a quick "depression" in there as well...maybe he was just talking about financials but that is not good. I assume he rubs elbows with fairly smart money...and after listening to him, I am even more confident in my longer term bearish outlook.

Thanks CP - I really appreciate this post.

I am totally convinced that the worst is yet to come. The FED and Government simply have nothing left - No More Rate Cuts; No more "Blank Checks" - and whatever BAIL OUTS are being projected to the public to 'quell their fears' in the persuit of spuring the economy - in all reality there is NO MONEY TO BE FOUND.

Fannie's Chief Exec did everything possible to get money - but no one was willing to throw in to something marked with 'weakness'.

With your post - I can share a little insight into my brain. When I say BEAR MARKET - I am thinking "Depression" type of stuff - with an obvious TANKING OF THE MARKETS and the misery of multitudes taking more of the Headlines. People will hold whatever they have and spend the minimum.

Yes - there will undoubtedly be enough investors "willing to buy on weakness" to give days like today. But when the real reports come out TIMES WILL GET HARD AND THE MARKETS (F FUND INCLUDED) WILL TANK. PTL for G Fund.

I have no doubt that whatever glimmer of hope (no matter how insignificant it really is) will be Highlighted in the Media to mask the true picture. The final stage of Fannie awaits the next Administration - so we are all in limbo for now. I've been keeping tabs on a lot of the more major expenses the present administration has raked up and whoever follows - steps into a very difficult situation that is far worse than any previous time in history.

I do not think this is 'The ECONOMIC COLLAPSE' we'll likely see in the future - but more of a major tremble before the Earth quake.

 

[nnuut]

Sounds like you are almost capitulated, hold Steady things will work out!View attachment 4642

 

[Buster]

Sounds like you are almost capitulated, hold Steady things will work out!View attachment 4642

Eat lots of fiber and Ex-lax

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you Norm - I love your post!

Sorry to sound so extreme. I think the dinasour is an accurate picture of what's going on.

The BEAR - is short term thing for now (3 to 6 months) and then I see years of very good gains to come. So overall - for my lifetime I see many years of good growth.

The COLLAPSE (or what I think of - is way down the line)

 

[fabijo]

The moon walking dino.

 

[FogSailing]

I'm countin on you Nnut..Tell me when Dino says the markets safe to get back into..

FS

 

[Corepuncher]

READ THIS

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6198.html

Straight talk on the economy. Amen brother!

 

[Steadygain]

READ THIS

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6198.html

Straight talk on the economy. Amen brother!

Double Amen from me.

For the sake of my job - and at the risk of sounding anti-American I'll have to NOT post my thoughts.

In a nutshell - I'M THRILLED THESE THINGS (ALL OF THEM) CAN NO LONGER REMAIN HIDDEN AND THE TRUTH IS COMING OUT.

 

[Steadygain]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/09/11/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Stocks knocked by bank woes

More worries about Lehman, WaMu, AIG drag on Wall Street. A big jump in the trade deficit and a weak labor market report add to the early weakness.



What stands out to me is, 'A big jump in the Trade Deficit and a WEAK Labor Report add to early weakness'



Giving the Banks too much press makes everyone and everything focus on them and unfortunately it gives a false sense of hope that all we need to do is bail them out. The other pieces are bound to come out more and more.



This is ONE TIME - the G FUND - is the ultimate refuge and I'm so glad we have this Fund available.

 

[Frixxxx]

....
This is ONE TIME - the G FUND - is the ultimate refuge and I'm so glad we have this Fund available.

Seconded!!!