FogSailing
Well-known member
The good news about Jobs came out too late to complete the IFT today but is having a positive effect on the markets. Might still jump in today but why couldn't they release that at 6:30am this morning.
FS
FS
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ssdave's Account Talk
- Thread starter ssdave
- Start date
Looking at my graph, I think now is a good time to go in; should get some relief soon and make 1 to 2%. Lot of people jumping into I; gambling on a Greek settlement.
It looks to me that the eurozone could go into real recession, and if so, the losses would be high; 4 or 5 to maybe even 10%. The I fund is up 5% plus for the year already, so a correction on Greek and China wouldn't be too much out of reason.
So, went 100% S. It looks the best of all the funds, has a better retreat from recent highs to recover towards. I really expect one more down day, then a recovery rally, but I like to be in, and don't want to miss a chance, so getting a day early.
It looks to me that the eurozone could go into real recession, and if so, the losses would be high; 4 or 5 to maybe even 10%. The I fund is up 5% plus for the year already, so a correction on Greek and China wouldn't be too much out of reason.
So, went 100% S. It looks the best of all the funds, has a better retreat from recent highs to recover towards. I really expect one more down day, then a recovery rally, but I like to be in, and don't want to miss a chance, so getting a day early.
Glad I got in when I did, wish I would have been around one day later like I thought; that was the real pullback. I just can't do IFT's some days, have to do it early instead.
Now, to go up about 1% more, then sit out and cruise and wait for the next crisis.
I'm at my 8% yearly goal now, get to work on bonus the rest of the year, and maintaining the gains to date.
Now, to go up about 1% more, then sit out and cruise and wait for the next crisis.
I'm at my 8% yearly goal now, get to work on bonus the rest of the year, and maintaining the gains to date.
The question is how much?
FogSailing
Well-known member
IF...the Greeks support the bailout, we should have a decent day. If not, all he-double hockey sticks is going to take place.. I'm hoping for the best.
FS
FS
userque
Well-known member
Yes, hope is a leading indicator.
True. Unfortunately, it doesn't have a very good track record.
One thing I've learned over the years is:
HOPE IS NOT A GOOD STRATEGY
I didn't move into I fund at the beginning of the month as did a lot of others; I moved into S as I thought I fund was too much of a gamble. The gamblers won, this time. So, I'm at a small gain for the month, instead of a large one. I see why the leaders that went into I are taking their profits, with I up 3+% and likely to retreat. But, there a LOT of others going to G also.
I decided to follow the herd mentality, and go to G also, locking in a small monthly gain and preserving capital in case of retreat.
I really think that the US Markets will drift sideways and slightly up for the remainder of the month, but I'd rather lock in 1 to 1.5% gain today on an up day, and look for another profit next month, as I'll be out of IFT's for July. I'm going to be on vacation the end of July and first part of August, so this gives me peace of mind when I'm out of communication and ability to do a transfer then. I'm above the 1% profit for the month I talked about a few days ago, and working on bonus for the year, so not complaining.
dave
rktect1
Member
Ooooph!"I'm hoping for the best."
Yes, hope is a leading indicator.
Back from vacation, was good to come back and see I made a good call, getting out July 16th at the high, and sidestepping consistent lows since then. I went back into stocks today, instead of my usual 100% into one fund, I went 30C, 40S, 30I. The decline of 2 to 3% from when I went to G looks like it will be providing an opportunity for another ratcheting up gain later this month.
I like that the fear indexes are running at extreme, while daily moves in the markets aren't really that extreme, and market levels are only 3 or 4% off the market highs. That usually indicates a revisiting of those highs or close to them is imminent. I dislike going in on Friday, before the weekend, as big moves can happen over the weekend. But, might miss the opportunity if I wait till next week. Rather be in at a reduced price with a bit of downturn before a turn-around than out when it goes up.
I like that the fear indexes are running at extreme, while daily moves in the markets aren't really that extreme, and market levels are only 3 or 4% off the market highs. That usually indicates a revisiting of those highs or close to them is imminent. I dislike going in on Friday, before the weekend, as big moves can happen over the weekend. But, might miss the opportunity if I wait till next week. Rather be in at a reduced price with a bit of downturn before a turn-around than out when it goes up.
Well, what a perfectly awful call I made last IFT!
I got a promotion/transfer and had to move my wife and daughter immediately so they could start school and a new teaching job. Came back after a week out of contact and internet, and chaos in the financial world! So I go from working on bonus for the year to trying to come up with a strategy to salvage something.......
Worst part is I'm so busy wrapping up my old job and trying to get my house ready to sell that i don't have the time to try to work the market. So, need to get out and miss any elevator ride up, or stay in and be a buy and holder for a while. Can't decide which makes the most sense.
I got a promotion/transfer and had to move my wife and daughter immediately so they could start school and a new teaching job. Came back after a week out of contact and internet, and chaos in the financial world! So I go from working on bonus for the year to trying to come up with a strategy to salvage something.......
Worst part is I'm so busy wrapping up my old job and trying to get my house ready to sell that i don't have the time to try to work the market. So, need to get out and miss any elevator ride up, or stay in and be a buy and holder for a while. Can't decide which makes the most sense.
I've been inactive for quite a while, took a promotion and moved, and only partially actively managing my TSP. Been getting back into it the past couple months.
Took today as an opportunity to get out; it looks awfully much like a local top to the market, and today looks like an up day. Might be sidstepping a 1% gain to the real top, but those have been sharp enough to not be easy to catch lately. I was running 30% S, 30% C and 40% I, went 100% G today. Was tempted to leave the I, it looks less like a top there, but decided to preserve my gain and lock into a certain return instead.
So, taking my 1.41% plus whatever happens today since my June 29th entry, and going to G. Will look to rebuy a dip before the end of the month.
Took today as an opportunity to get out; it looks awfully much like a local top to the market, and today looks like an up day. Might be sidstepping a 1% gain to the real top, but those have been sharp enough to not be easy to catch lately. I was running 30% S, 30% C and 40% I, went 100% G today. Was tempted to leave the I, it looks less like a top there, but decided to preserve my gain and lock into a certain return instead.
So, taking my 1.41% plus whatever happens today since my June 29th entry, and going to G. Will look to rebuy a dip before the end of the month.
I'm guessing I missed the best buying opportunity by being too hesitant. With the recent market behavior, thought that the dip buyers would buy into the close, not that it would continue to sell off. Bet there's a bounce tomorrow that could have been played if I had bought today......
Tried to buy in Monday and TSP site wouldn't accept my password. Turns out that would have been a great move with the pop Tuesday. Decided to go in today. I got out at the highs in July, so S has declined about 2.5% since my exit. Went 100% S today. Might be a bit of a downside left, but really think that the optimists will push it back up instead. It's not been a good year to be out of the market too long.
I've been pretty good at getting out at high points. What I have a hard time with is buying back in soon enough. So, trying to be a bit more aggressive about it. At the least, I bought in at 2.5% lower than if I'd been a buy and holder. In the long term, that's a potential gain advantage, even if there's a short term downside.
I've been pretty good at getting out at high points. What I have a hard time with is buying back in soon enough. So, trying to be a bit more aggressive about it. At the least, I bought in at 2.5% lower than if I'd been a buy and holder. In the long term, that's a potential gain advantage, even if there's a short term downside.
Been a bad time for me in trades. Last week, bought in a couple days late because of a password problem. Then, really wanted to get out today, but was busy and couldn't do the IFT. Would have liked to get out on the upswing that we see today, take my 2% since buying in to S last week and be primed for rebuying a dip next month. Well, there's always tomorrow, lets hope we don't get a pre-holiday profit taking with the run-up yesterday and today. I know that's what I'd like to be doing, just hope everyone else doesn't!
Well, today was a good recovery to where I wanted to get out last week, so I took the opportunity to go 100% G. Took the 2.60% since my buy in on 8/24; will look to buy back in when the relief rally subsides in the next few days. Lots of small gains make for a good year. I don't trust September to just keep going up; usually some volatility that can be played carefully.
