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ssdave's Account Talk
- Thread starter ssdave
- Start date
Want to get lost? Come a little farther north!
Alaska is beautiful. The wife and I did a cruisetour with Princess Cruise Lines in 2007.
Blindman
Member
Want to get lost? Come a little farther north!
I missed a TDY there by..... "that much".....I was dissapointed. I guess I will have to pay for it myself.:laugh: I'm a big outdoorsman, so I think It would be great place to visit someday!
Blindman
Well, the wide variances and knife edge peaks of the last months has got me rethinking strategy, and adjusting my approach. The bottoms have been a lot flatter than the tops have been; not a single flat stable top but a few zigzag flat bottoms. This suggested a better strategy to timing. With our trading deadline and limited trades, knife edge peaks aren't easy to hit. Instead of selling when the market seems to go up too fast and is topping, I’ve been buying when the market seems to fall too fast and stabilizes, and selling when it recovers a reasonable amount. I missed a couple of moves on the tracker, so the return of 2.2 percent that shows there is really 5.87% for the year. Not stellar, but low risk and a lot better than holding and hoping. My long term goal has been 6% yearly; with any luck at all, should easily meet that this year.
Well, it remains to be seen if I made a good move today. Based on the European and Asian market closings, and the expectation that the US market would sell the news of the debt default deal being inked, I expected a loss of about 1.5% today; I bought in at 40C, 20S, 40I.
Always easy to double think yourself, 2 to 2.5% drop today, maybe I got in a day early. Might be more blood before the inevitable bounce occurs. I sincerely doubt that this is another 2008. Fundamentals aren’t there for a big decline; no huge bubbles bursting, just a lot of pessimism coupled with a couple of poor reports that would have been a 1% decline otherwise. Another way of looking at it is that If we’re being 2008’ed again, I sidestepped a 4 to 6 percent decline by being in G from end of June to today. If it continues to decline without hope of relief, I’ll step out again.
Well, it remains to be seen if I made a good move today. Based on the European and Asian market closings, and the expectation that the US market would sell the news of the debt default deal being inked, I expected a loss of about 1.5% today; I bought in at 40C, 20S, 40I.
Always easy to double think yourself, 2 to 2.5% drop today, maybe I got in a day early. Might be more blood before the inevitable bounce occurs. I sincerely doubt that this is another 2008. Fundamentals aren’t there for a big decline; no huge bubbles bursting, just a lot of pessimism coupled with a couple of poor reports that would have been a 1% decline otherwise. Another way of looking at it is that If we’re being 2008’ed again, I sidestepped a 4 to 6 percent decline by being in G from end of June to today. If it continues to decline without hope of relief, I’ll step out again.
Glad to see the slight positive today, after the roller coaster ride.
Now for a couple of consolidation days to make a W at the bottom, get past the Friday jobs report, then start back up. Biggest question will be what is an acceptable profit, to get back out and lock in the gains? Hard to tell how much to gobble up, with the knife sharp peaks we've been having, there's only been one day to take a profit before falling off the cliff again!
Now for a couple of consolidation days to make a W at the bottom, get past the Friday jobs report, then start back up. Biggest question will be what is an acceptable profit, to get back out and lock in the gains? Hard to tell how much to gobble up, with the knife sharp peaks we've been having, there's only been one day to take a profit before falling off the cliff again!
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Well, been an interesting month. I bought back in too early, anticipating the bottom would come up soon. At least I was out for a while and sidestepped some of the August losses.
Got nervous today, went 100% G. I was 40 percent in I, and it's shaping up way too risky. Thought about going C and S, but finally decided to get out and wait for some direction to establish. One of my goals was to sidestep risk when I started this. That's what I see myself doing today.
In analyzing what I did this month, compared to what I intended to do, I made a serious mistake in getting impatient. My observation in the market this year has been fast rises, knife edge peaks, falling into the abyss, muddling around for some time, and then a rise. My stated strategy has been to sell rises, and stay out until the bottom consolidation has happened. This month, I saw the first days of falling off the cliff, saw how much it had fallen, and got impatient that I would miss the lows. I jumped in, and rode it down enough to erase the years profits. If I had followed my strategy, I would have sidestepped about 5 to 7 percent more of the downside. As it was, I am just barely above water for the year now. Live and Learn.
This trade today follows my strategy. Sell when there's a serious upside, and stay out and wait for another fall, or a clear direction that we're uptrending steadily. I just need to have the patience to wait and see what happens for a few days before jumping in again.
dave
Got nervous today, went 100% G. I was 40 percent in I, and it's shaping up way too risky. Thought about going C and S, but finally decided to get out and wait for some direction to establish. One of my goals was to sidestep risk when I started this. That's what I see myself doing today.
In analyzing what I did this month, compared to what I intended to do, I made a serious mistake in getting impatient. My observation in the market this year has been fast rises, knife edge peaks, falling into the abyss, muddling around for some time, and then a rise. My stated strategy has been to sell rises, and stay out until the bottom consolidation has happened. This month, I saw the first days of falling off the cliff, saw how much it had fallen, and got impatient that I would miss the lows. I jumped in, and rode it down enough to erase the years profits. If I had followed my strategy, I would have sidestepped about 5 to 7 percent more of the downside. As it was, I am just barely above water for the year now. Live and Learn.
This trade today follows my strategy. Sell when there's a serious upside, and stay out and wait for another fall, or a clear direction that we're uptrending steadily. I just need to have the patience to wait and see what happens for a few days before jumping in again.
dave
Dave, Sounds like we think alike. Usually the first half of the trade (the getting out part) is more clear. The second part is much more difficult (the getting back in part). Before we went to two IFTs I used to phase back in 5-10-15% at a time over a few weeks, etc. Much safer. Now our wonderful TSP Board is causing us much higher risk levels and losses or less profits. Good Investing! I keep reminding myself we're in this for the long haul!
Well, got lucky to get out on Wednesday at a local high. Now, looks like we'll be down about 3% in two days; ordinarily I would look at this as a buying opportunity. Especially, when the market went down on known news; nobody expected job numbers to be up, but still the market selling on news that it is flat. Ordinarily, I would expect to recover todays losses quite easily next week. In the past, I've done well harvesting 2% gains once a month or so.
But, this year, the peaks have been real sharp and short lived, and the bottoms wider and muddling around in a W shape and ratcheting lower. I'm going to wait out the weekend and see what a couple days next week bring before jumping back in.
I think the strategy of avoiding losses is more applicable today than chasing gains.
But, this year, the peaks have been real sharp and short lived, and the bottoms wider and muddling around in a W shape and ratcheting lower. I'm going to wait out the weekend and see what a couple days next week bring before jumping back in.
I think the strategy of avoiding losses is more applicable today than chasing gains.
Well, been still avoiding losses all month, glad I've not had to chase gains, as can't see how I would have been successful with this volatility!
A lot of buy-in today on the tracker, and the little blip up at the close bodes for a bounce tomorrow. I think the buy in and ramp up are too many people on the sidelines that are afraid of missing a ramp up, not really a rally. Might be shorts buying also to cash in their position. Might be good sell opportunity tomorrow if you were lucky enough to buy in today, short covering might give a boost to the bounce. I was waiting till at least tomorrow to buy in, if we had about 5% down on Thursday/Friday, I would think about getting back in. Now, I think I'm out till Monday. 100% G for now. Even if we fall off a cliff tomorrow morning, I'm way too afraid of a relief bounce in the afternoon. Need to consolidate some more first to make me feel good.
A lot of buy-in today on the tracker, and the little blip up at the close bodes for a bounce tomorrow. I think the buy in and ramp up are too many people on the sidelines that are afraid of missing a ramp up, not really a rally. Might be shorts buying also to cash in their position. Might be good sell opportunity tomorrow if you were lucky enough to buy in today, short covering might give a boost to the bounce. I was waiting till at least tomorrow to buy in, if we had about 5% down on Thursday/Friday, I would think about getting back in. Now, I think I'm out till Monday. 100% G for now. Even if we fall off a cliff tomorrow morning, I'm way too afraid of a relief bounce in the afternoon. Need to consolidate some more first to make me feel good.
Hmmm,
Had an introspective look in the mirror moment today when I looked at the Tracker. I've got the same allocation as Amoeba, and have been making moves in coordination with Wildwoman. Need to rethink my strategy!
On a more serious note, glad to be sitting on the sides at the moment, got out just before the flat sideways motion, think it would be good to be out until after Monday. A lot can happen while Europe goes marching on right through our holiday. Been trying to sidestep risk when I can this year, but stay in the market as a default when things don't look too bad.
Looking forward to seeing what the day after the holiday brings.
Had an introspective look in the mirror moment today when I looked at the Tracker. I've got the same allocation as Amoeba, and have been making moves in coordination with Wildwoman. Need to rethink my strategy!
On a more serious note, glad to be sitting on the sides at the moment, got out just before the flat sideways motion, think it would be good to be out until after Monday. A lot can happen while Europe goes marching on right through our holiday. Been trying to sidestep risk when I can this year, but stay in the market as a default when things don't look too bad.
Looking forward to seeing what the day after the holiday brings.
Went to G today, after having been in since end of February. Too many things happening at once that spell risk. The whole Greece thing, good news that it is looking solved, but bad that it is still essentially a controlled default. Meetings in Europe Monday, and a weekend for people to think about what's happening today.
What I don't like, and perceive as risk, is that everything is moving in concert today. Europe up. Asia up. U.S. Up, but S&P 1375 acting as resistance. Oil up. Dollar WAY up. Gold and other commodities up.
Europe up and the dollar way up at the same time are the biggest flag to me. Overseas money is retreating into buying the dollar, but European stocks up at the same time. Saying one thing, and doing another. A few days to realize what's going on, and Europe will drop. At the same time, U.S. stocks going up while dollar going up. Quite the opposite of what we see normally. Same with oil and gold up at same time as stocks.
All of this means to me: RISK. So I'm out on an up day. Hate the FV thing, although Europe up, will lose value because of the dollar, and I was 40 percent I. But, think the risk is much greater than the FV loss.
Wait to see what next week brings.
dave
What I don't like, and perceive as risk, is that everything is moving in concert today. Europe up. Asia up. U.S. Up, but S&P 1375 acting as resistance. Oil up. Dollar WAY up. Gold and other commodities up.
Europe up and the dollar way up at the same time are the biggest flag to me. Overseas money is retreating into buying the dollar, but European stocks up at the same time. Saying one thing, and doing another. A few days to realize what's going on, and Europe will drop. At the same time, U.S. stocks going up while dollar going up. Quite the opposite of what we see normally. Same with oil and gold up at same time as stocks.
All of this means to me: RISK. So I'm out on an up day. Hate the FV thing, although Europe up, will lose value because of the dollar, and I was 40 percent I. But, think the risk is much greater than the FV loss.
Wait to see what next week brings.
dave
Trying to get back into more active management of my account; been too busy at work the past year to do much.
Went to G Tuesday, looked like a peak happening before a fall. Well, after a small adjustment, looks like a sideways consolidation, so back in.
My strategy this year has been counterproductive, limited a lot by my ability to watch what's going on and react. I've got out of the market several times when it looked like it might peak and fall, and managed to sidestep about 2/3 of the gains I would have made by just being a buy and holder. Doesn't make me feel good.
My thought is that in a bull market, I should be biased to staying in, and only step out when the risk seems abnormally high, so I went back in at 100% S today.
Every time there's a little dip, even .25%, there's buyers stepping up and buying back in, afraid that they'll miss the small buying opportunities in a bull market. That continual pattern is apparent, and shows up over the past day as a horizontal consolidation after the .5% drop. So..... I'm in; the only good thing in my last 2 moves is I avoided a small drop, and depending on where it ends today, was able to buy back in at about .3% lower.
Hard market for timing; not enough volatility for an effective strategy with essentially a 1 day delay in buying capability imposed by the TSP; and a continual upward bias that makes sitting out even a few days expensive in lost gains.
dave
Went to G Tuesday, looked like a peak happening before a fall. Well, after a small adjustment, looks like a sideways consolidation, so back in.
My strategy this year has been counterproductive, limited a lot by my ability to watch what's going on and react. I've got out of the market several times when it looked like it might peak and fall, and managed to sidestep about 2/3 of the gains I would have made by just being a buy and holder. Doesn't make me feel good.
My thought is that in a bull market, I should be biased to staying in, and only step out when the risk seems abnormally high, so I went back in at 100% S today.
Every time there's a little dip, even .25%, there's buyers stepping up and buying back in, afraid that they'll miss the small buying opportunities in a bull market. That continual pattern is apparent, and shows up over the past day as a horizontal consolidation after the .5% drop. So..... I'm in; the only good thing in my last 2 moves is I avoided a small drop, and depending on where it ends today, was able to buy back in at about .3% lower.
Hard market for timing; not enough volatility for an effective strategy with essentially a 1 day delay in buying capability imposed by the TSP; and a continual upward bias that makes sitting out even a few days expensive in lost gains.
dave
Been a long time since I last took time to post.
I sat out of the market in May, expecting a drop just like the past couple of days. Instead, sidestepped gains that I could have made in June and July. But, also ended up avoiding the drops end of July, so when I went back to C today, ended up buying back in 1% lower than when I transferred from S to G in May. And made 0.4% in G in that time. Holding on to 1% of gains and making another .4% isn't a bad thing. Hard to believe that I'm almost in the top 100 on the tracker with 3.7% for the year.
My thoughts are that my default position is to be in the market, unless it appears to have topped and ready to fall. So, I elected to buy back into C today, at the worst, I'm 1% ahead of where I would have been if I had simply bought and held all summer. At the best, I'm poised to harvest a return if the market bounces back.
I'm too busy to track the market most days, and often can't make IFT's in the daytime, so don't do a lot of "trading". I do try to do some risk avoidance, I take solid gains and bank them by going to G when the market seems toppy, and try to rebuy at a drop. Might not do the highest return, but have to remember a few 1.5% gains a year add up to a decent return most years. A solid 6 to 8% average gain puts me at my retirement goals in the 9 years I have left. I keep a private spreadsheet of my account, and find that most years I'm about 20% better than if I was a straight buy and holder. There's exceptions, like last year, when I made half of what I would have if I'd stayed in the S fund 100%. But, overall, I'm quite a bit ahead of a straight buy and hold strategy.
dave
I sat out of the market in May, expecting a drop just like the past couple of days. Instead, sidestepped gains that I could have made in June and July. But, also ended up avoiding the drops end of July, so when I went back to C today, ended up buying back in 1% lower than when I transferred from S to G in May. And made 0.4% in G in that time. Holding on to 1% of gains and making another .4% isn't a bad thing. Hard to believe that I'm almost in the top 100 on the tracker with 3.7% for the year.
My thoughts are that my default position is to be in the market, unless it appears to have topped and ready to fall. So, I elected to buy back into C today, at the worst, I'm 1% ahead of where I would have been if I had simply bought and held all summer. At the best, I'm poised to harvest a return if the market bounces back.
I'm too busy to track the market most days, and often can't make IFT's in the daytime, so don't do a lot of "trading". I do try to do some risk avoidance, I take solid gains and bank them by going to G when the market seems toppy, and try to rebuy at a drop. Might not do the highest return, but have to remember a few 1.5% gains a year add up to a decent return most years. A solid 6 to 8% average gain puts me at my retirement goals in the 9 years I have left. I keep a private spreadsheet of my account, and find that most years I'm about 20% better than if I was a straight buy and holder. There's exceptions, like last year, when I made half of what I would have if I'd stayed in the S fund 100%. But, overall, I'm quite a bit ahead of a straight buy and hold strategy.
dave
Well, easy to post on a good month. Managed to get in (100% C) at the absolute low on Aug 1, and looking like a top today so walked away (back to g) for a 3% plus gain. Like always, remembering that a small gain each month equals a good end of year return. I really like to be in at the end of the month, so as to have the benefit of two IFT's. Going in on the 1st instead of 31st of July cut that off this month has made it tough for next month, as I'll enter September in G. However, very pleased with the 3%, so no complaints.
Broke $300K in my TSP today. with 9 more years to go to eligibility for retirement, finally feeling like it will be enough when I get there.
dave
Broke $300K in my TSP today. with 9 more years to go to eligibility for retirement, finally feeling like it will be enough when I get there.
dave
Cactus
Well-known member
Congratulations Dave! Sounds like a good strategy that is working for you.
I find myself too often in catch up mode which leads me to staying in too long. I almost got out today looking for a lower entry point next week but got too greedy. We'll see if it ends up costing me.
I find myself too often in catch up mode which leads me to staying in too long. I almost got out today looking for a lower entry point next week but got too greedy. We'll see if it ends up costing me.
Cactus, I don't thing you'll go wrong. My personal target written in my tracking spreadsheet is C fund of 26.5, about 1.8% higher than today, and equivalent of S&P of 2025. That is my "don't get greedy" number, if the market reached that before end of August, I absolutely would have gotten out, regardless of what direction the market looked like it was going. My thought is it will reach that before end of September. However, the quick motion up the past few days, low volume, Bonds moving same direction as stocks, and geopolitical events make me think that there is a risk of a dip before the peak. So, I elected to take a good solid 3.25%, lock in my 7% for the year and wait for a September buy opportunity. My long term goal is 8% per year, should easily make that by the end of the year by judicious buying. I'll take the solid return, and consider anything I can do above that as a bonus and a hedge against shortfall years.
A lot of small monthly gains make for a good year.
dave
A lot of small monthly gains make for a good year.
dave
Well, being conservative and getting out a bit early in August to lock in gains insured that I made 3.44% this month vs 4.01% I would have if I had stayed in C for the entire month. I'm also in the G fund going into September, so only one effective IFT for that month. In retrospect, which is always easy, I would have been much better off to be in, take more profit, and be positioned for two effective IFT's for September. But, hard to complain about a 3.44% month.
This one way (up) market makes it hard to beat being a buy and holder. I'm essentially at the same level I would be at if I had just done a 50/50 C/S allocation for the entire year. The only thing that keeps me going is having a belief that another drop is just around the corner, and I'll avoid that......Risk avoidance while still getting a good targeted return isn't a bad strategy, especially as I'm starting to think more in the capital preservation/retirement glide path way.
Waiting to see what action transpires next week. Still think the C fund will go up to about 26.5 (S&P of 2025) and then correct back. Question is whether I should IFT in Tuesday, take a 1% gain, and then be out, or wait for the peak, and then buy the pullback. I think I'll do the latter. If the market just keeps up the constant grind upward, I'll end up sidestepping 1 to 1.5% of gains before I capitulate and buy back in, but if it drops back a bit, I'll be in a better spot to hold for the fall. Decisions.....
dave
This one way (up) market makes it hard to beat being a buy and holder. I'm essentially at the same level I would be at if I had just done a 50/50 C/S allocation for the entire year. The only thing that keeps me going is having a belief that another drop is just around the corner, and I'll avoid that......Risk avoidance while still getting a good targeted return isn't a bad strategy, especially as I'm starting to think more in the capital preservation/retirement glide path way.
Waiting to see what action transpires next week. Still think the C fund will go up to about 26.5 (S&P of 2025) and then correct back. Question is whether I should IFT in Tuesday, take a 1% gain, and then be out, or wait for the peak, and then buy the pullback. I think I'll do the latter. If the market just keeps up the constant grind upward, I'll end up sidestepping 1 to 1.5% of gains before I capitulate and buy back in, but if it drops back a bit, I'll be in a better spot to hold for the fall. Decisions.....
dave
