ssdave's Account Talk

[ssdave]

Well, I have in my tracking spreadsheet a goal of buying back in when S was between 34.4 and 35. At 34.73 and dropping today, it's about as close as I'll get as I'll be unable to watch market the next couple days.

S is now 2% lower than when I got out in August, so good potential for a run-up, and 34.4 is the bottom of the low volatility range.

I've been in C mostly this year instead of S, but C hasn't really pulled back this cycle, so went 100% S to take advantage of its greater volatility. Looks like more potential gain to be made there than in C. I might use my second IFT this month to go to C if S bounces more than C so that the potential evens out more. That is, if it does go up instead of further pullback. My way of looking at it is I'm buying in at 2% lower than if I hadn't sold at the peak. Long term, that's good for my goals.

dave

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, that's my idea as well.

 

[ssdave]

Looks like volatility is here with us for awhile. I don't think that is a bad thing, as long as we recognize it and don't panic at each move. Volatility equals opportunity for judicious trading gains.

Lets see what next week brings us.

dave

 

[ssdave]

Well, Cactus, we're looking pretty good as of today. The S fund run up was a real gift, hope it holds at least one day. Now, C fund is looking a little more stable growth, I'm thinking of stepping out of the volatility of the S and sideways into the more dependable C.
Haven't done any IFT's for the month, so with 2 left and 3 days to go, no harm in using one to lateral between the S and C, still stay in but take advantage of the slightly more growth potential and lower loss potential of C.

I'll see what tomorrow looks like before the IFT deadline.

Slightly tempting to take the nice gain I've made for October and go to G, as I've said before a small gain each month equals a good return at the end of the year. With the Fed meeting, it's anybody's guess where we'll end the day, regardless of what it looks like at IFT deadline. Could aim for a lock in of gain and lock in a loss instead.

dave

 

[Cactus]

Yeah, that's what happened to me on the 22nd: aim for a lock in of gain and lock in a loss instead. As it turned out I also bailed out too early.

I think you have it, though. You have enough gains to lock in even if we give some of it back today. Keep up the good work.

 

[ssdave]

Cactus, for what my opinion is worth, I think there'll be another buying opportunity next week or the week after.

The limitations of the TSP system really hurt on days like today. If the trend holds through today and I go to G, I'll lock in a little over 3% from my transfer to S on 9/23. At that time, I stated my goal was to make another 4% by the end of the year. It would be my first IFT of the month, but unfortunately it is also the last day of the month so I go into November not invested. I expect at least a 1% dip after the elections, to at least yesterdays level before todays BOJ jump up. I could buy in at that, and be set going forward. But, then I'll only have one IFT left to harvest Novembers gains. My decision outside of TSP limitations would be clear: Take the money and run. So, the TSP limitations cloud my judgement by making me think about staying in. I think I see some clarity coming out of my mumblings to myself! Have another hour to decide.

 

[ssdave]

I'm going to ride it out over the weekend. My best guess is there's another 3/4 of a percent waiting to harvest before the elections are over and we dip a bit. And, I'll be invested for 2 full IFT's in November.

 

[ssdave]

With the elections over and solidly into a republican senate, I think the markets will celebrate in optimism for a couple of days. So, I held in S (plus I was out of office and not able to transfer) and will hold through at least Friday unless there's a huge run up in the next couple days. We should see a dip in the next week or two if we see a substantial run up, and my thought is to wait for a run up, sell and rebuy a percent or two lower and then hold through the end of the year.

If we start seeing volatility again, then I'll look at doing some transferring to take advantage. I'd like to see 2% more gain for the year.

Be interesting to see what the follow through on the election results is tomorrow.

dave

 

[ssdave]

Elections didn't move markets much, really won't have much effect until the winners take office. C looks to be at a high point and although S looks like it could go up a bit more, it's starting to falter. I think we'll see a bit of a pullback and a buying opportunity in the next two weeks. So: I'm up 3% from my last move to S, and I'm going to lock in that gain and look for a new opportunity a % or two lower before Thanksgiving. My TSP balance is at my goal for the year, so am working on bonus now.

Not really a surprise that the elections didn't affect the markets much. The BOJ runup last week had already put as much growth into the market as it can stand short term, and the elections weren't really in question for outcome anyway. However, the mixed overseas markets, the jump in bonds today, and the dropping currency exchange rates make me think we're at a potential small adjustment or breather space, so I'll look for a new buy opportunity and see if I can get another 2% by the end of the year.

 

[ssdave]

Dip buyers stepping in and eating up each small drop in price are bouncing the market from a small down to break even today. Profit takers from the last couple week runup are willing to feed them and keep them coming back for more, so the price dips again.

On the Autotracker IFT list, I see some of the holdouts that I watch are finally giving up and buying into C or S. They've been waiting for another dip to use as a buy opportunity, now that the market is going up again. The continued movement up has them re-assured of direction, so they're giving up and buying in instead of waiting a dip. That reinforces to me that it's time to be out, so I'm holding in G, racking up miniscule gains and being patient for the right re-entry opportunity. If it doesn't materialize, I'll be the one giving up and buying in a week or two! I'm at my year end goal now, so I can be cautious about holding gains while trying to accumulate more.

dave

 

[ssdave]

About an even split on the IFT's on the tracker today. Early IFT's were going into C and S, and later IFT's were profit takers going to G. Mirrors what we're seeing in the overall market. Buyers come in and bump the market up, sellers come and dip it down. Repeat.

So, is this a consolidation, with profit takers trading places with latecomers to the table, or is this smart money feeding dumb money and leaving them holding the bag? What happens in the next week will tell us.

dave

 

[ssdave]

Way too many people exiting to G and F on the tracker today. Too many people counting on a downturn for it to happen. Everybody watching the action and thinking we're at a peak. Too many watching the inverted head and shoulder pattern. My thoughts are that we'll have a lot more sideways action next week, maybe some fake outs, quickly bought or sold back to neutral. Then, depending on what sentiment is looking like the market will decide a direction and make a move. Much as I'd like a buying opportunity, I don't think it will happen next week unless its news driven.

 

[maui21ice]

Way too many people exiting to G and F on the tracker today.

I saw that too and am keeping an eye on the YTD leaders. I had to use my IFT to the C-fund as my first move for November, so I'm debating if to move to safety, or hold off through the end of the month.

 

[ssdave]

Been sitting out a month, and could have made some money by perfect timing, but could have also lost. I'd like to get back in, but impossible with our TSP end of day purchase/midday decision and the volatility we've been seeing. Like trying to catch a rubber ball bouncing between floor and ceiling using a video camera with a 2 second delay to see with.

Hope the next couple days even out and define a direction, either up or down. Right now, the market action looks like market pumping to harvest gains before a drop and creating a buying opportunity. I think I'll wait a bit more. Could lose 1.5 to 2% intraday between decision time and closing price if I tried to get in with the action we're seeing.

 

[ssdave]

Down about 3% from the point where I last went to G. I was planning to get in today, I think today was Opportunity time. But, was busy this morning and it was 9:59 Mountain time when I looked at the clock, so missed my intention.

I think we'll have an intraday low tomorrow, and a bounce back positive. Then, a bit down again Wednesday, and then start to grind upwards again as the panic subsides over the oil price decline.

Now I have to decide to buy in tomorrow on the bounce, or wait and hope it goes down again. Would have rather have followed through with my willingness to buy in today. I'll see what it looks like tomorrow.

dave

 

[ssdave]

Lot of players willing to cash in their chips when the small run up happened early today, and then everybody was willing to sell for whatever they could get. Might have been a good day to get in, but I'm still waiting for an intraday reversal, bounce and then final fall before I jump. Hard to be patient, but I think it will pay off.

Looking forward to what will happen tomorrow, and glad to be in G today!

dave

 

[ssdave]

Missed the mid December opportunity by missing my planned trade and then wasn't going to jump in after the run-up, which turned out to be prudent. Looking like its time to get in again, just how long a person should wait is the question. Will we get another 3 to 5% down, or will we have another instantaneous reversal and jump up and no warning to buy in?

My bias is to be in, so will be looking for a good entry point soon. Can't make money if you don't buy in when the market falls, and hold until it comes up.

dave

 

[ssdave]

Went 100% S today. Looks like will be a good down day, and I'm willing to jump in early to avoid missing the quick reversals we've seen for the past 3 dips. I'm in for the long haul, so the 2% lower yesterday (and maybe a bit more today) than when I last went to G is a positive bias for my long term objective, which is to make better than 10% per year for the next 9 years before I retire. I'd rather have to sit through a bit more of a downturn than miss the jump back up and miss out on a longer term gain opportunity.

 

[ssdave]

Nice when things work out with your entry, was a good day yesterday, and looking good for today.

My bias is to stay in the market as much as possible. But, my strategy is to get out anytime when large run ups give me substantial return, markets appear to be topping and volatility is high, and wait for a re-entry opportunity of 2% or so lower. Ratcheting up, so to speak.

It's nice to get in at the bottom and have a jump up. But, then there's an immediate decision to be made whether to get out and harvest the gain, or stay with my long term bias and stay in, even through downturn volatility. I break about even either way. Half the time I sidestep gains, and half the time I guess right and harvest a nice ratchet step. So, i don't have a clear indication of which method is best. When the market moves slowly, I'm more inclined to stay in. When it jumps, I'm more likely to harvest gains and wait for re-entry.

I track the 5 funds I use in a spreadsheet (GFCSI). I have a graph that shows the perspective I want, in a timeframe that works for the TSP 2 transfer system. Looking at that, I have two "sell" numbers written into my spreadsheet for S on my latest trade, since that is my current allocation. The prudent sell # is S&P of 2075. I usually lead that a bit in reality, and would sell at about 2060. My "greed" number is 2090. If I hold past the greed number, usually volatility will take away 1 or 2% that I have to sit through before I gain again.

So, decision time today: If I get out today and the 1.4% or so apparent gain holds, I'm up 2.5% or more for the month. Meets my monthly goal, but I'm out through February, and could sidestep a lot of additional gain. I can hold for my prudent sell, and if that is realized, will be up close to 4%. Would really be a good start for the year. Or, could hold for another .5%, get out at about 2060 where there's some major resistance, and split the difference between risk and return.

I think I'll let it ride at least one more day. Still have an hour to decide, I guess.

 

[OBGibby]

.....I track the 5 funds I use in a spreadsheet (GFCSI). I have a graph that shows the perspective I want, in a timeframe that works for the TSP 2 transfer system. Looking at that, I have two "sell" numbers written into my spreadsheet for S on my latest trade, since that is my current allocation.....

Do you mind sharing your "sell numbers"? Or even post a screenshot of your spreadsheet?