ssdave's Account Talk

[ssdave]

Not a very sophisticated spreadsheet.

I enter GFCSI daily values. Then, have a column that tracks percent of current value vs my last trade. Then, total $ of my account, and return to date for the year. Then, I graph the GFCSI daily values vs time. I look at the graph to see visually the peaks and valleys and general trend. Very low tech look; not nearly the sophistication of most of the posters here, that track and name the formations, have different moving averages, etc. But, it has worked for me. I tried to put in a screen shot, but don't have the technology to do so. I'll try pasting a small piece of the spreadsheet in:

[TABLE="width: 1137"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Sell S[/TD]
[TD]target of [/TD]
[TD]36.8[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.392436[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Consider [/TD]
[TD]at [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Sel S[/TD]
[TD]target of[/TD]
[TD]36.5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.381085[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]That is S&P500 of[/TD]
[TD]2075[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD="align: right"]122.494[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: center"]#VALUE![/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2092.054795[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]123.5008[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]1.014669927[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.059899[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-99.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/9/2015[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]36.5[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.036573[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$331,942[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]3.66%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/8/2015[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]36.13755491[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.026279[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$328,646[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]2.63%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/7/2015[/TD]
[TD]14.6224[/TD]
[TD]16.9457[/TD]
[TD]26.7443[/TD]
[TD]35.6351[/TD]
[TD]23.4841[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.000062[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.00036[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.011949[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.01201[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.001954[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$324,077[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/6/2015[/TD]
[TD]14.6215[/TD]
[TD]16.9396[/TD]
[TD]26.4285[/TD]
[TD]35.2122[/TD]
[TD]23.4383[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.003397[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.016917[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.989002[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.990336[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.950031[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$320,231[/TD]
[TD]100% S[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/6/2015[/TD]
[TD]14.6215[/TD]
[TD]16.9396[/TD]
[TD]26.4285[/TD]
[TD]35.2122[/TD]
[TD]23.4383[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.003397[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.016917[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.989002[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.990336[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.950031[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$319,397[/TD]
[TD]Adjusted for contributions[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/5/2015[/TD]
[TD]14.6207[/TD]
[TD]16.886[/TD]
[TD]26.6655[/TD]
[TD]35.6585[/TD]
[TD]23.5838[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.003342[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.013699[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.997871[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.002888[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.955928[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$319,408[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/2/2015[/TD]
[TD]14.6181[/TD]
[TD]16.8315[/TD]
[TD]27.1599[/TD]
[TD]36.2327[/TD]
[TD]24.2173[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.003164[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.010428[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.016372[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.019038[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.981606[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$319,412[/TD]
[TD]Adjusted for contributions[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]1/2/2015[/TD]
[TD]14.6181[/TD]
[TD]16.8315[/TD]
[TD]27.1599[/TD]
[TD]36.2327[/TD]
[TD]24.2173[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.003164[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.010428[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.016372[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.019038[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.981606[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$316,101[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.82%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]12/31/2014[/TD]
[TD]14.6165[/TD]
[TD]16.8017[/TD]
[TD]27.1655[/TD]
[TD]36.2964[/TD]
[TD]24.2183[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.003054[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.008639[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.016582[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]1.020829[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]0.981647[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]$316,066[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD="align: right"]10.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[OBGibby]

Thanks. I think I'm tracking.

 

[ssdave]

In retrospect, was a good decision to stay in through January, and hold on for a bit more gain; the spreadsheet target was good.

It's back to decision time again. S is at 36.6, over my consider sell and just below my "don't get too greedy" number. I'm at 4% for the year, half my target goal to be able to retire on my terms. Hmmm.

This time of month I hate to make a decision. If I stay in, will be invested and have two IFT's next month. Get out now, and I will only have one effective IFT.

Have to see if it looks like it will hold tomorrow. If we dive off a cliff again, don't want to sell and lock in the loss. If it's an up day, would be smart business to get out and hold on to the years profit; wait for a discount buy opportunity again.

 

[felixthecat]

In retrospect, was a good decision to stay in through January, and hold on for a bit more gain; the spreadsheet target was good.

It's back to decision time again. S is at 36.6, over my consider sell and just below my "don't get too greedy" number. I'm at 4% for the year, half my target goal to be able to retire on my terms. Hmmm.

This time of month I hate to make a decision. If I stay in, will be invested and have two IFT's next month. Get out now, and I will only have one effective IFT.

Have to see if it looks like it will hold tomorrow. If we dive off a cliff again, don't want to sell and lock in the loss. If it's an up day, would be smart business to get out and hold on to the years profit; wait for a discount buy opportunity again.

Very nice return for January! I'm definitely watching the top leaders...I have seen a shift in the risk taking appetite of our tsptalk members. I don't like to follow herd mentality so my finger is never far from the eject button. I sense that we have some room here to test the recent highs. Let us hope my keen senses have not been dulled by the aging process. :blink:

 

[pmaloney]

You are way ahead of me and I am trying to temper my risk aversion but what do you think of staying in the rest of the week because earnings are Ok and Macro politics aren't too bad but most important the FED will probably be very dovish having to consider the EU QE and the cost of labor / wages?

I'm thinking that Thursday and Friday might be good days and the next leg up.

 

[ssdave]

pmaloney, you could be absolutely right. I've almost given up trying to assess the effects of various future news events. If I'm smart enough to see it, 98% of the rest of the world has already analyzed it, and priced it in. I see no percentage in beating the 2% that are less astute than I.

What I have arrived at is: 1) Keep invested as much of the time as I can stand. 2) Get out when it looks likely we'll plateau or fall 3) Get out when I make 2% or more in a month, if it looks like we're nearing highs. 4) re-buy back in when I can get back in 2% or more below my last sell. 5) If I miss and market continues to go up, get in as best as I can because you can't afford to sit out too long and miss profits.

 

[pmaloney]

Thanks. Those are pretty good guidelines and I will keep them in mind. I am trying to be less risk adverse and stay invested more but I'm still learning and I wish I had the 2% increase problem to deal with. Thanks again.

 

[nasa1974]

Very nice return for January! I'm definitely watching the top leaders...I have seen a shift in the risk taking appetite of our tsptalk members. I don't like to follow herd mentality so my finger is never far from the eject button. I sense that we have some room here to test the recent highs. Let us hope my keen senses have not been dulled by the aging process. :blink:

It's not bad watching the Autotracker leaders and getting a feel for what is going on. But I haven't noticed (or maybe just missed) any of the top folks posting their intent before noon EST. In the past some of the top leaders would post their moves to help other members decide if they wanted to follow or not. Just saying.

 

[ssdave]

I'm not one of the top leaders, one lucky trade for the year absolutely doesn't give me that status! I'm pleased with my return to date, where it falls on the tracker is secondary. I post my real tsp trades, it's not a game to me.

I elected to stay in for today, the initial action looked like I could lock in a considerable loss. If we get a day when it appears to stabilize up, I will get out and look for a re-entry. The 4 hour lag in decision/trade is a killer when we have this much volatility.

As far as posting my moves, I usually take my morning break and make a last minute decision just before 10:00 mountain time, and post my move in the autotracker. Much more likely to post in my account talk at my lunch or after work. Don't have enough morning time to post then. I'm not much of an analyst anyway, just trade with the guidelines I posted earlier. I wouldn't recommend following me, I'm flying 90% blind, using my own simple spreadsheet/graph to meet my own objectives.

 

[felixthecat]

It's not bad watching the Autotracker leaders and getting a feel for what is going on. But I haven't noticed (or maybe just missed) any of the top folks posting their intent before noon EST. In the past some of the top leaders would post their moves to help other members decide if they wanted to follow or not. Just saying.

Well, I may not be a leader right now, but I usually post 30 minutes to 5 minutes before the deadline for my real TSP account. The reason I would guess that they post late is to make last minute analysis and adjustments. For TSPTALK Autotracker...I change the same time as TSP account. So I give a good headsup for TSPTalk Autotracker. Not so much time for real TSP. You know the reason why above.

 

[ssdave]

I'm cashing in today. If the trend holds today and we don't get an end of day sell off like yesterday, S should end up at about 36.7. That's in the middle of my target sell range.

With the volatility that we've had lately, I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to buy in again, and ratchet up.

My thoughts are that we'll go up more in the next couple of days before pullback, but I'd rather take a guaranteed return that meets my long term goals than try to scalp the last dollar. Especially with the jobs report tomorrow, that's a wild card that can push the market either way. I remind myself that I'm not gambling, I'm investing, and a guaranteed return that meets my objectives is preferable to a possible gain that has nearly equal chance of loss. There's a lot of the year left, and will be many more, solid opportunities.

So, 100% G today.

 

[Nordic]

I'm cashing in today. If the trend holds today and we don't get an end of day sell off like yesterday, S should end up at about 36.7. That's in the middle of my target sell range.

With the volatility that we've had lately, I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to buy in again, and ratchet up.

My thoughts are that we'll go up more in the next couple of days before pullback, but I'd rather take a guaranteed return that meets my long term goals than try to scalp the last dollar. Especially with the jobs report tomorrow, that's a wild card that can push the market either way. I remind myself that I'm not gambling, I'm investing, and a guaranteed return that meets my objectives is preferable to a possible gain that has nearly equal chance of loss. There's a lot of the year left, and will be many more, solid opportunities.

So, 100% G today.

Agreed, I think that's a solid call. I moved into the F fund myself, but with the same justification. Trying to take advantage of the volatility when possible.

 

[amoeba]

I'm cashing in today. If the trend holds today and we don't get an end of day sell off like yesterday, S should end up at about 36.7. That's in the middle of my target sell range.

With the volatility that we've had lately, I think there'll be plenty of opportunities to buy in again, and ratchet up.

My thoughts are that we'll go up more in the next couple of days before pullback, but I'd rather take a guaranteed return that meets my long term goals than try to scalp the last dollar. Especially with the jobs report tomorrow, that's a wild card that can push the market either way. I remind myself that I'm not gambling, I'm investing, and a guaranteed return that meets my objectives is preferable to a possible gain that has nearly equal chance of loss. There's a lot of the year left, and will be many more, solid opportunities.

So, 100% G today.

Brilliant timing on the sideline move; with everything else somewhat overbought - and oil screaming up $10/bbl; I will be watching for your next move.

 

[ssdave]

We'll see how brilliant it was this week. Many are thinking it is going to break out through the roof this week; if so, I left a lot of profit on the table.

Here's my target #'s for a rebuy from my spreadsheet; although I say buy S, I'll consider C or S at the time I rebuy, based upon which looks to have the most room for growth:

[TABLE="width: 340"]
[TR]
[TD]Buy S[/TD]
[TD]target of [/TD]
[TD]36[/TD]
[TD]-2.45%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Consider [/TD]
[TD]at [/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Buy S[/TD]
[TD]target of[/TD]
[TD]36.3[/TD]
[TD]-1.64%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]That is S&P500 of[/TD]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2027[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[ssdave]

I've been checked out for a little over 2 months, I was in my agencies leadership school, and inundated with work at the same time and had to give up managing my future. So, been sitting inactive in the G fund.

I used yesterday as an opportunity to get back into the game with a transfer to 100% S; it was fortunate that S fell enough that I only sidestepped 2% gains while I was out; I bought back in at 2% more than when I went to G.

Looking forward to actively managing again for awhile.

Looking back, my thought in February that there would be enough volatility to make money when I last sold was wrong; predominately it's been up since then. If I had been able to manage my account, I would have bought in again in a couple of weeks later at about where I am now, but would have had one or two buy/sell cycles that would have gained me a couple to 4% in between. The take home lesson is that even when you are wrong, actively managing still will eventually make it up. Buying in again at the panic dip yesterday is just another one of those active management decisions that should result in a good return at the end of the year. Hopefully!

dave

 

[Frixxxx]

I've been checked out for a little over 2 months

Welcome back! Hopefully this week is a dip, and not the start of a slide down through May.

Frixxxx

 

[ssdave]

I went 100% G today. Should take a small profit of about 1% and lock it in. I'm not too bright, and really do no technical analysis. My unsophisticated look at my own tracking graph/spreadsheet says that I should wait one or two more days, and that would probably gain me another 0.8% to 1.2%. However, i also move based on how things feel/look, I've learned through my life to trust my intuition at times. Today seems like one of those times, so I'm moving out when my more rational analysis tells me to hold for a bit more.

If the trend holds today, my move will lock me in a solid gain that meets my long term objectives, while satisfying my intuition that tells me to sidestep some risk. More opportunities to buy back in will present themselves in the future.

dave

 

[ssdave]

It looks like my spreadsheet chart was right on, should have stayed in instead of getting nervous, and I would have harvested another 1% in S. It shows about another .25 to .5% up in S, and then I expect a 1.5% pullback to complete the pattern. I'll be looking at that as an opportunity to buy back in next week. Hopefully will be able to see the pullback, and it will last a day or more and provide a buy opportunity, instead of an intraday low.

I don't like these low volume, pre-holiday directionless up/down drifting days. Hard to get a trend for the end of the day close to know what to do by the IFT deadline. Hopefully back to a bit more direct action next week to show where we're going.

Right now, I and F are out of play for me, the dollar exchange value and fed actions make those more gambling than investing. So far, the gambling in I has gone pretty well, with QE in europe more than offsetting the dollar exchange. In retrospect, would have been nice to be in. But, could have just as easily lost the same; with risk comes reward if you win.

 

[ssdave]

I don't like to be sidelined this long, been out 3 weeks. My spreadsheet shows that the G fund that I'm in is the highest performer for that time; everything else is just muddling around sideways. Nothing playable in the past 3 weeks, the most anything has moved is about 1%. Whatever happened to the bull market that is always going up? Or volatility, which is the friend of those wanting to make money? Something needs to happen or it's going to be a boring summer!

 

[ssdave]

Really tempting to jump in today. Market still really just muddling around though. I looked at the Tracker for some inspiration. Yesterday, essentially nobody jumping to G. Today, a few. Way too much confidence in the market. The time to make money is when people get desperate, are going to G or cash to preserve capital. Then, there's an opportunity to make money. So, I'm staying in G for today.