Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

First, the tech market, then the housing market, and now the oil.. I'm going to G and will stay in G til oil price drops..

IMHO, that will be after summer is over. Good Luck

 

[Guest2]

Hey Guys, Gotta Run, Wedding Stuff !
The Market has turned around at this time
and the S & I are in positive territory. I'm
staying yet another day 100% I-Fund.
Good Luck and I'll try to catch-up later !
:nuts:

 

[Guest2]

A guy has a right to change his mind , don't he !

New allocation change: effective today COB:
30%G - 30%C - 20%S - 10%I - 10%F

Sorry so late !

 

[luv2read]

"A bear market rally usually lasts 35 days and (rises) an average of 12 to 13 percent, that is exactly what we've seen on the S&P so this would be it," said Philippe Gijsels, a senior equities strategist at Fortis Bank in Brussels.

"If this is a bear market rally, it should stop around now." (Reporting by Amanda Cooper)

GL Squalebear! Hope it pays off.

 

[DCguy]

well I'll be in G tomorrow and see what happens. I still think and my brain tells me that the market's still bullish and the dow will rise above 13200. But my heart is weak and it tells me that it's time to sell and wait for oil price to drop. I went to G. GL everyone.

 

[Guest2]

I-Fund,,,I-Fund,,,I-Fund !

I can't hear YOU !

:nuts:

I write this at the cost of the DogHouse, coming dear !

 

[luv2read]

niiiiiiiiice profit on that I fund today SB! More than compensates for buying into the C/S/F, since F dropped.

 

[DCguy]

I'm very confused now. I hear bad news/reports and the market still finishes in green. I think that only means we will see some huge drops in the future. I still expect the Dow to rise above 13200 before June. Dollar's weakening and the oil price is skyrocketing.

 

[Birchtree]

Certainly you meant 14,200 before the end of June, right?

 

[Guest2]

niiiiiiiiice profit on that I fund today SB! More than compensates for buying into the C/S/F, since F dropped.

Not so fast young buck, as recently guessed, the I Fund deficit rose to
the High Level of +0.22 cents. POOOOOOH ! Well, at least 10% of my
money may benefit. Gotta go,,,,,,,coming dear !

 

[Guest2]

I'm very confused now. I hear bad news/reports and the market still finishes in green. I think that only means we will see some huge drops in the future. I still expect the Dow to rise above 13200 before June. Dollar's weakening and the oil price is skyrocketing.

Sometimes it's simply a matter of Bull vs. Bear, a tug of war, sort a speak.
I would have to guess what your definition of "huge" is, before making any
attempt to accurately address the statement. With that said, just as death
is a part of life, so to are dips, drops and daggers. After all was said and
done today, I am now second guessing my move out of the I-Fund. The
deficit I speak of, rose so much today, that the I-Fund only got a .17%
return and the EFA rose .74%. Eventually, it will come back down to it's
single digit aspiration. We can always look back with 20/20 vision, but for
me, I prefer to move on to my next goal.

In conclusion, my next goal is to figure out a stategy when it comes
time to move my (spread out) money back into the (G) when need be.
I'll use the Doom and Gloom just as much as I'll use the Rally and Booms.
When you add it all up, it's the gut which tells you to "fight or take flight"

Gosh, my wife never allows me this much free speech !
Oouuch ! Sorry honey, I was just checking.......coming dear !

 

[Birchtree]

Not trying to be too optimistic but the SPX could, and should, double from here. And Abby was only looking for 1675 by year end. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. Let's see some amplitude the rest of this month.

 

[Guest2]

Not trying to be too optimistic but the SPX could, and should, double from here. And Abby was only looking for 1675 by year end. Time in the market is typically more rewarding than timing the market. Let's see some amplitude the rest of this month.

Sure beats Marketing Time ! :cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

The EFA opened moments ago and was down at the start -.58%
The DWCPF is up +.16%. The AGG is noticably down -.14% and
the SPX is only marginally down.

 

[Guest2]

I read on another thread that the "Deficit Theory" I speak so frequently
talk about, might explain the "mystery money" that some how appears &
disappears from the I-Fund returns on a daily basis. I want to give all my
friends a brief understanding of what I look at & what I don't include.

I-Fund = Our TSP account made to "reflect" the MSCI EAFE INDEX
EFA = An ETF that was made to "reflect" the MSCI EAFE INDEX

As an investor in the TSP over the years, it quickly became apparent
by looking at this TSP Link http://www.tsp.gov/rates/returns-tsp.html
that all the Funds were required to "reflect" their corresponding indexes.
For this to hold true, many facts had to be addressed by the Fund Mgrs.
Fees, Dollar Fluctuations, The Closing of the European & Asian Markets,
Dividends, Commissions......etc........ I was not interested (previously)
in learning so much about the specifics. That included Fair Value or any
other detail which caused the differences in their returns. But I tracked
the differences anyway. While doing so, I believed a pattern developed.
It was simple, right in my face and made all the sense in the world.

This pattern does not predict the future decisions Fund Mgrs. will make at
any given time. So "anything can happen" still exists. But the information I
get from this data, helps me understand a portion of the differences in the
daily returns. When I say portion, I believe that Fair Value (FV) plays an
even larger role in the differences.

Bottom Line: The YTD differences between the EFA and the I-Fund must
stay close to reflect one another. If today, the fund has a difference in
returns of say,,,,.25% I simply take the the .25% and multiply it by the
final tsp share price. That turns the difference into TSP CENTS. When the
Accumulative YTD difference reaches the twenty cent area, it's high.

.00 thru .09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
.10 thru .15 Medium Difference
.16 thru .23 High Difference

On rare occassion you'll see an overpayment, instead of a deficit. Too
rare to mention right now. But FV is most definately is included within
these deficits. I invite anyone to combine the two and come up with a
more definative share price speculation. I am not qualified to speak of
FV just yet and time is not on my side as well. I hope this helps anyone
interested in why I don't believe this is a therory, but a required portion
of the TSP Fund Managers.

 

[Steadygain]

Honestly Squalebear,
The Fair Value (FV) is like a mystery that can't be solved; a term that is too vague to give concrete answers - it is just too abstract for me to fool with.

In part I think it is determined by the strength/weakness of the dollar; in part it is probably a correction of a Market that is determined somewhere at the midway point during the day - instead of at closing.

To me the main thing to consider is "What is the strength or weakness of the European Market". Any Market that has had 5 years of sustained growth at the rate the European Market has is badly in need of a correction to sustain it and give it true stabiltiy.

I personally think most of us are so use to the progressive growth that we miss the need for corrections; but these corrections are vital to future economic growth.

 

[GUCHI]

squalebear
i read your explanation and for me its still greek !!!! i most certainly thank u for the explanation maybe someone else will be able to use it.

thanks again
guchi

 

[luv2read]

I read on another thread that the "Deficit Theory" I speak so frequently talk about, might explain the "mystery money" that some how appears & disappears from the I-Fund returns on a daily basis. I want to give all my friends a brief understanding of what I look at & what I don't include.

On rare occassion you'll see an overpayment, instead of a deficit. Too rare to mention right now. But FV is most definately is included within these deficits. I invite anyone to combine the two and come up with a more definative share price speculation. I am not qualified to speak of FV just yet and time is not on my side as well. I hope this helps anyone interested in why I don't believe this is a therory, but a required portion of the TSP Fund Managers.

Oh my! SB, I didn't mean to imply that your deficit....idea, principle, system....(?) wasn't viable. I used the word "theory" for lack of a better one to describe it. I referred the person to your thread because I really think you are on to something.

Please accept my sincere apology for any confusion/misconceptions/bruised feelings my comment may have caused. You know that I have the highest respect for your grasp of the I fund...Barclays manipulations are beyond me and I won't even attempt to understand them. I'm just glad when I get a surprise positive when I'm expecting flat or a negative. Thanks for all of your explanations.

 

[Guest2]

I only wish I had the time to answer everyone. My kids getting married
and I'm 2 seconds from going into the penalty box by the Mrs. I'm sure
alot of you have already been through it.

Listen up;

Luv2read, I didn't take the Theory description as a negative. I respect
you and your contributions to my thread and to the website as a whole.
My lengthy rant was written because I get excited about contributing
something. It's all good, now stop, my feminine side is coming out.

Guchi, My time is limited, however, I will make it a point to touch base
with you when the dust clears in a day or two.

Steady, Your always eliquent in your writings, I agree with you 100%

Bad Market day calls for a Jack daniels moment. I'll try to stop back
later to see what the damage is. Unit then, keep your chin up !

 

[Steadygain]

I only wish I had the time to answer everyone.

I'd say you did a great job! Thanks my friend.

My kids getting married

That's wonderful. Very few events in life can compare to that.
Congratulations!!!

and I'm 2 seconds from going into the penalty box by the Mrs. I'm sure
alot of you have already been through it!

I have been there more than all the times everyone on the MB got in and out of stocks,

More than Birch has said, "Be right - sit tight"

More than people throughout the universe have collectively said "ummm" when talking over the past 19 centuries

More than raindrops have splashed on the ground, or snowflakes have settled in the North and South Polar Regions combined.

IF WORSE COMES TO WORSE - FEEL FREE TO USE ME AS AN EXCUSE - JUST TELL HER THAT YOU WERE TRYING TO EXPLAIN SOMETHING REALLY EASY TO SOMEONE WHO CAN BARELY GRASP THE IMPORTANCE OF "REVERSE POLARITY AND HOW IT RELATES TO THE IMPEDENCE NODULE OF SECTOR K"

Anyway - hope the wedding was wonderful!!