Squalebear's Account Talk

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -25.14%.....C=...-23.87%....-08.99% (my figures):)
DW.= -24.68%.....S=.. -23.10%....
EFA= -32.19%......I=...-30.81%...
AGG= -02.52%.....F=...+01.44%...
...........................G=...+02.90%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -05.83%.....C=...-05.79%....-04.01%(my figures):confused:
DW.= -08.41%.....S=.. -08.56%....
EFA= -05.51%.....I=....-04.14%...
AGG= +00.04%.....F=..+00.59%...
...........................G=..+00.03%..
 
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2077 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.65%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.3270 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.15%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2312 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.35%:confused:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(09/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(09/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(09/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(09/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(09/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(09/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(09/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(09/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(09/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(09/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(09/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(09/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(09/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents

(09/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08) -0.7365% -0.1291 tsp cents

(10/02/08) -0.0580% -0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851% -0.2312 tsp cents:confused:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin):confused:
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
SB - I get post 1770. Thanks! and sorry at the same time.

Please forgive me but can you explain some of post 1771?

O/D=?
tsp cents?
And the key - We owe them? and They owe us?

I gotta go to work...rain, sleet, snow and all that. :D

I'll be back some time after 10:00 eastern for 30 minutes for lunch.

Thanks in advance! :o :)

KD
 
SB - I get post 1770. Thanks! and sorry at the same time. Please forgive me but can you explain some of post 1771?
O/D=?
tsp cents?
And the key - We owe them? and They owe us?
I gotta go to work...rain, sleet, snow and all that.
I'll be back some time after 10:00 eastern for 30 minutes for lunch.
Thanks in advance! KD

KD, For several years now, I've been tracking the EFA and the (I) Fund
returns. The EFA (managed by iShares) consists of the same stocks which
are tracked by the MSCI EAFE INDEX. The (I) Fund consists of the same
stocks as well, but is managed by Barclays (BGI) for TSP purposes.

The (I) Fund is unique in many ways; Fair Value, Currency Exchange Rates
Euro/Dollar, when comparing it to the other risk funds within the TSP. I've
been facinated by the differences in the way that BGI and iShares differ
in way they handle all of the complexities. Ultimately, I came to one
conclusion; the (I) Fund is built to reflect the YTD returns produced by
the MSCI EAFE INDEX. In turn, the EFA is produced to reflect the YTD
returns of the same index. While tracking them both, I noticed that they
sometimes gave extremely different results on a daily basis. This could be
explained away by something called Fair Value, but not entirely. Instead
of getting to deep into FV and the other complexities already mentioned,
I decided to keep my tracking "Broad Based". As a result, I was able to
utilize the information to determine if going into the (I) Fund would give
me a better shot at greater gains then the (C) and (S). This worked out
pretty good when we had the freedom to make unlimited IFT's. It was also
more beneficial while we were in the last Bull Market. Prior to the current
-32.19% YTD loss, it gave me some strong gut feelings about staying out
of the (I) Fund all together. Warnings were posted about the signals I was
getting and helped some of our members avoid greater losses.

I simply compare both the EFA and the (I) Fund Daily gains/loss %'s. On a
YTD basis, the differences accumulate. But when all is said and done, the
two MUST reflect the MSCI EAFE INDEX at the end of the year. So I made
a post which shows the "Daily % Difference" of the two. I add the results
to my accumulating YTD % Difference and transform that percentage into
TSP Cents. Example; 1/1/08 each fund starts at 0% and 0.00 TSP cents.
On 1/2/08 the EFA had a +1% gain and the (I) had a +.50% gain, then the
(I) had a "Deficit" of .50% which might equaled to 0.02 TSP Cents based
on the current closing share price. If the opposite was true and the (I)
Fund had the 1%, then the (I) Fund was "Overpaid" a half percent. Thus I
called my posts the O/D Tracker. "Overpayment/Deficit Tracker".

In conclusion, I invite you to go further back within my thread. You'll see
several things that you might find interesting. 1) Commentary was usually
included each time I would post, not that often now. 2) You'll find all of
the Tracking on one posts from May until just recent. 3) You'll see within
the results that on June 24th, 2008 we went from the "Deficit Side" to the
"Overpayment Side" of my tracker. The "They owe us" or We owe them"
is simply a way to document which side of the tracker we're currently on.
Either "Deficit" = They Owe Us. or "Overpayment" = We owe them.
I've included the (S) and the (C) to show how this type of tracking is
seen when looking at the US Funds, But its focus is clearly on the (I)Fund.
Even the (C) Fund has margins of Overpayment but Fees and Dividends
play a role (as they all have) and they are too small to be useful on a
daily basis. I hope this post helps explain what you and some new
comers are seeing when looking at my figures. ;)

Damn, I need a drink ! Come on James, share that bottle ! :nuts:
 
SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHY I'M MAKING A MISTAKE BY BAILING TO THE (g) FUND TODAY. I WON'T TAKE IT AS PROFESSIONAL ADVICE, I'LL TAKE IT AS A HONEST OPINION. I ALREADY DID A IFT, BUT, I CAN CANCEL IT SHOULD I BE MISSING SOMETHING !
 
SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHY I'M MAKING A MISTAKE BY BAILING TO THE (g) FUND TODAY. I WON'T TAKE IT AS PROFESSIONAL ADVICE, I'LL TAKE IT AS A HONEST OPINION. I ALREADY DID A IFT, BUT, I CAN CANCEL IT SHOULD I BE MISSING SOMETHING !

I don't want to feel responsible for anyone else's choices, but if I were in right now, I would wait a day or two to bail. Even a dead cat will bounce and I expect something dramatic from the Fed today or tomorrow. Then, definitely sell the rally.
 
I don't want to feel responsible for anyone else's choices, but if I were in right now, I would wait a day or two to bail. Even a dead cat will bounce and I expect something dramatic from the Fed today or tomorrow. Then, definitely sell the rally.

Agree with you, Pilgrim.
 
I don't want to feel responsible for anyone else's choices, but if I were in right now, I would wait a day or two to bail. Even a dead cat will bounce and I expect something dramatic from the Fed today or tomorrow. Then, definitely sell the rally.

STRONG POINT, MESSAGE RECEIVED !
THANKS A BUNCH PILGRIM & PRESSKH,
ANYONE ELSE HAVE A OPINION. :confused:
 
SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHY I'M MAKING A MISTAKE BY BAILING TO THE (g) FUND TODAY. I WON'T TAKE IT AS PROFESSIONAL ADVICE, I'LL TAKE IT AS A HONEST OPINION. I ALREADY DID A IFT, BUT, I CAN CANCEL IT SHOULD I BE MISSING SOMETHING !
My dear friend Squale, take a deep breath. We can't day-trade; the lag time between request and response, and the IFT handcuffs won't allow that. So we have to think timeframes of swing-trade at best. Someone else said sell the coming dead-cat bounce and that makes sense to me.

And I don't have a crystal ball. If I did, my actual account would be a lot higher than the +0.16% that it is for the year! But my gut and some chart fundamentals tell me that equities are going to go lower before they turn around. Maybe an S&P loss of up to 20% more?

Please ask yourself one overriding question: Would I rather be in equities and have them fall an additional 20%, or would I rather be out of equities if they finally turn bullish and miss the first 5% to 10% rise? :confused: Maybe the answer to that question will let you feel more at peace with whatever you decide.

Lady
 
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STRONG POINT, MESSAGE RECEIVED !
THANKS A BUNCH PILGRIM & PRESSKH,
ANYONE ELSE HAVE A OPINION. :confused:

Squale,

If I had 10 years or more, I'd jump in today or stay in, but I'm 4.5 years away and CP is important right now. Just an uneducated opinion from a fellow fed.

CB
 
In all seriousness, I cancelled my IFT and wanted someone to tell me that
I was finally right about something this month. Today is already locked in
stone. So tomorrow could bring a DCB or a Fed Rate Cut. If I bail now I've
sold the farm and locked in a loss. So I'm holding onto hope and a noose.
Lets hope I can save the noose for roping in some gains. Thanks for the
opinions, I feel a little better about my decision. Emotional Judgements
tend to be wrong, but this sure is one uuuuugly day to get ballsy. :nuts:
 
Squale,

If I had 10 years or more, I'd jump in today or stay in, but I'm 4.5 years away and CP is important right now. Just an uneducated opinion from a fellow fed.

CB

Thanks CB, if I'm being honest, I have 1 year 289 days until eligability at
age 52. But if I must stay until Mandatory Retirement Age (LEO) 57, I just
might have to do it. That is what is in the balance for me. Prison Bites !
 
My dear friend Squale, take a deep breath. We can't day-trade; the lag time between request and response, and the IFT handcuffs won't allow that. So we have to think timeframes of swing-trade at best. Someone else said sell the coming dead-cat bounce and that makes sense to me.

And I don't have a crystal ball. If I did, my actual account would be a lot higher than the +0.16% that it is for the year! But my gut and some chart fundamentals tell me that equities are going to go lower before they turn around. Maybe an S&P loss of up to 20% more?

Please ask yourself one overriding question: Would I rather be in equities and have them fall an additional 20%, or would I rather be out of equities if they finally turn bullish and miss the first 5% to 10% rise? :confused: Maybe the answer to that question will let you feel more at peace with whatever you decide.

Lady

My Lady brings me Peace ! Love ! and Happiness ! ;)
 
Wow whatever happened to the pop?

This market is killing us this month... :worried:

My thresh hold for pain is reaching critical levels... :blink:
 
Thanks CB, if I'm being honest, I have 1 year 289 days until eligability at
age 52. But if I must stay until Mandatory Retirement Age (LEO) 57, I just
might have to do it. That is what is in the balance for me. Prison Bites !

Squale,

I'm only 2 years from my MRA, so I could go out sooner. The 4.5 year figure is my 28th year of service, so I'm just kinda splitting the difference between 56 and 60. I'm checking to see what my options are at 56 and if I can swing it, I'm outta here. My job bites, but I'm sure not near as bad as yours. I'm just in burnout mode and want to spend more time living than working.

CB
 
Wow whatever happened to the pop?

This market is killing us this month... :worried:

My thresh hold for pain is reaching critical levels... :blink:

Thats what I was experiencing myself, my good friend JTH.
Today is already done. Tomorrow is hope for me. But not
everyone has the time to absorb the day and hang tough.
I've gotta give this thing a little more time. :)
 
Wow whatever happened to the pop?

This market is killing us this month...

My thresh hold for pain is reaching critical levels... :blink:
Unfortunately, it is going to take a month (at least) for the Treasury to get these loans going. I think the market will only move after the loan market this time, since in spite of the hype, the indication of this emergency plan helping anything at all will appear in the Lending sector first, not in Wall Street Stock Markets.:(
 
Squale,

I'm only 2 years from my MRA, so I could go out sooner. The 4.5 year figure is my 28th year of service, so I'm just kinda splitting the difference between 56 and 60. I'm checking to see what my options are at 56 and if I can swing it, I'm outta here. My job bites, but I'm sure not near as bad as yours. I'm just in burnout mode and want to spend more time living than working. CB

Working since I was 13 made me want to retire before working for the
Federal Government some 18 - 3/4 years ago. Can you imagine how
motivated I am now, its all a matter of affordability. Can I afford to go
OR can I afford to stay? ;) If I can't afford to stay, thats when it gets
down right ugly !
 
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