Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I don't usually do this, but i thought i'd make a prediction!
:nuts:​

I see a Emergency Fed Funds Rate Cut of .50%
being announced on Friday, October 3, 2008 !
​

I gotta fly for a little while, but I'm wondering if anyone else see's this
coming like I do. If so, what kind of effect do you think it will have on
both the US and International Stock Markets?
​

 

[wv-girl]

Hugs are always welcomed ! But, be prepared
for some extended hugs, I tend to take advantage
of others comfort zone ! :embarrest:

Spoken like a true bear.

 

[DCguy]

very low volume. I think everyone's waiting for the bailout approval.

 

[Guest2]

Spoken like a true bear.

Thanks WVG and Congrat's are in order, beautiful job in September!

 

[Guest2]

very low volume. I think everyone's waiting for the bailout approval.

I just doubled up and adjusted my mix with anticipation of the same.
40%(C) 50%(S) 10%(I). The Ssssss Fund is currently estimated as
being below the Monday Meltdown's price. I upped the (S) by 30%
doubled my holdings in (C) and kept the (I) as it was. I would not
have jumped in all the way, but look at the down day were having.
It gave my gut a warm and hungry feeling that a bounce will be
greater then Tuesday's. God I miss our BULL Market !

 

[BamaAF]

I just doubled up and adjusted my mix with anticipation of the same.
40%(C) 50%(S) 10%(I). The Ssssss Fund is currently estimated as
being below the Monday Meltdown's price. I upped the (S) by 30%
doubled my holdings in (C) and kept the (I) as it was. I would not
have jumped in all the way, but look at the down day were having.
It gave my gut a warm and hungry feeling that a bounce will be
greater then Tuesday's. God I miss our BULL Market !

Good Luck SB! I think S is due for a good bounce also, but couldn't bring myself to make the move -- at least today.

 

[Guest2]

Good Luck SB! I think S is due for a good bounce also, but couldn't bring myself to make the move -- at least today.

Thanks Bama, I'm currently at the level where I've lost all contributions
for the year, I certainly haven't done anything worth mentioning since
March. Maybe the market will be kind and give me "The Due Factor" I
so justly deserve. :cheesy:

 

[wv-girl]

Thanks WVG and Congrat's are in order, beautiful job in September!

Hang tough. You'll soon be the one to beat! (from my lips to Gods ear)

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2102 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.65%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.3471 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.23%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.1135 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.66%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(9/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.3685% -0.0939 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(9/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(9/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(9/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(9/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents
WEEKLY. -1.4600% -0.1495 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(9/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(9/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(9/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(9/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents
WEEKLY. +0.7734%+0.1866 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(9/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08)-0.7365%-0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08)-0.0580%-0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08) 0.0000% 0.0000 tsp cents
WEEKLY. +0.0000%+0.0000 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -24.11%.....C=...-22.82%....-07.29% (my figures)
DW.= -22.91%.....S=.. -21.24%....
EFA= -31.92%......I=...-31.01%...
AGG= -03.52%.....F=...+01.33%...
...........................G=...+02.89%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -04.48%.....C=...-04.45%....-02.31%(my figures)
DW.= -06.12%.....S=.. -06.19%....
EFA= -05.11%.....I=....-04.43%...
AGG= -00.72%.....F=..+00.49%...
...........................G=..+00.02%..

 

[Guest2]

A final thought ! I don't care if there's pork ! I don't care if someone
added broken kid arrows to the bill. With knowing the economy will
not be fixed over night, the Rum (so disgustingly) placed within the
most important bill we've seen in modern time, will be put to good
use should this Bill not pass Congress. Pass the damn thing and get
the oversight, checks and balances and regulation in place A.S.A.P.
Lets face reality politicians, you've already lost your jobs. As a last
ditch effort, do something that will help and apply for unemployment
like the hundreds of thousand taxpayers you represent. We can bad
mouth you later for being nothing less then the Wallstreet Crooks that
you love to point fingers at. I'm sure I'll be showering you in our Special
Housing Unit soon enough ! Bass Turds !

Sorry, it had to go somewhere !

On a lighter note, the weather was cool and crisp today in New Jersey !

 

[JTH]

Bass Turds !

Sorry, it had to go somewhere !

Tell us how you really feel!

I share your utter disgust with this Congress (Porky Bastards) and further more I have no desire to discuss this election and can't wait to start the new year with a clean slate and support whom ever gets elected.

 

[justbizness45]

Tell us how you really feel!

I share your utter disgust with this Congress (Porky Bastards) and further more I have no desire to discuss this election and can't wait to start the new year with a clean slate and support whom ever gets elected.

I can't wait either. SB will be a great president. I'll write him in!!:nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

I can't wait either. SB will be a great president. I'll write him in!!:nuts:

Didn't we have L2R running for prez I think we had SB in charge of the FRTIB and I was running NASA.

 

[justbizness45]

Didn't we have L2R running for prez I think we had SB in charge of the FRTIB and I was running NASA.

Sorry, I must have missed that nomination. :embarrest:
I was picturing the auditor running the ballots scratching his head...who the heck is Squalebear??:nuts:

SB, on a more serious note I compared the first trading day in Oct to the first trading day in Nov in a presidental election year starting in 1984. I used the S&P:

Year Oct Nov
1984 164.64 167.49 1.7%
1988 271.38 279.06 2.8%
1992 416.29 418.68 0.6%
1996 689.01 703.77 2.1%
2000 1436.51 1421.22 -1.9%
2004 1131.50 1130.51 -0.1%

Hope this helps answer your question.

 

[Guest2]

sorry, i must have missed that nomination.
It was on another thread i was picturing the auditor running the ballots
scratching his head...who the heck is squalebear?? More like; what the
heck is a squalebear.

SB, on a more serious note i compared the first trading day in oct to the
first trading day in nov in a presidental election year starting in 1984.
I used the S&P:

Year oct nov
1984 164.64 167.49 1.7%
1988 271.38 279.06 2.8%
1992 416.29 418.68 0.6%
1996 689.01 703.77 2.1%
2000 1436.51 1421.22 -1.9%
2004 1131.50 1130.51 -0.1%

hope this helps answer your question.

It does and thanks for checking for me.

 

[Guest2]

Hopes Grow For Emergency Rate Cut !

"I Think It Would Add Some Confidence"
says; Squalebear of TSPTalk.com ,,,,,,,

 

[Guest2]

After the -4% rape of our retirement funds, I'm still happy to see the
Futures in the Green (for now) at 4:50am on the morning that Congress
votes on the Bailout Bill.

"If you build it, they will come",,,,,,,,, "If you pass it, they will stay"

Anyway, I'm in at 100% and I can only pray that this doesn't turn into
the new Black Friday.

 

[Guest2]

Ok, the board is green. One question ! Will this day result in the ever so
often phrase; "BUY THE RUMOR,,,,,,SELL THE NEWS" ?

 

[Minnow]

I'm guessing the worst scenario for those of us in the market looking for a couple of up days would be an affirmative house vote... followed by a big selloff late in the day (after IFT witching hour) ... but then again that might precipitate an "emergency" rate cut from the Fed.

--- this is just MHO ... I'm truly wanting to see some up days but that matters little on this little blue ball flying through space and time.