Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I'm guessing the worst scenario for those of us in the market looking for a couple of up days would be an affirmative house vote... followed by a big selloff late in the day (after IFT witching hour) ... but then again that might precipitate an "emergency" rate cut from the Fed.

--- this is just MHO ... I'm truly wanting to see some up days but that matters little on this little blue ball flying through space and time.

Well said Minnow. I think if the Packaged Bill doesn't pass, even a
emergency rate cut won't help the cliff we're gonna fall from. So, I
think we'd better get it passed. With that said, a emergency rate
cut might come sooner then later (JMHO) anyway. This leaves me
to wonder what Monday has to offer. I'm gonna check the Reports
due out and see what they hold. If I lack confidence in Monday's
follow thru, I might have to take some off the table today, even
though its been in for only a day. I'll be taking a risk of having a
downturn before the day is done, but if she's bad today, I can only
believe it will be bad on Monday. I need to do more research.

 

[Guest2]

MONDAY'S ECONOMIC REPORTS;

FOMC MINUTES;

CONSUMER CREDIT; is not a major market moving release, and with good reason. It simply is not useful in forecasting consumer spending trends, and is released with a lag relative to other data. Higher levels of consumer credit are generally associated with rising spending and can thus be seen as positive from an economic standpoint. However, sometimes higher levels of credit are seen as reflecting a burden on consumers that will lead to a future retrenchment. Consumer credit has grown at slightly less than a 6% annual rate for almost five years. This rate of growth is consistent with nominal GDP growth and represents a reasonable and rational rate of credit growth by consumers. There is nothing in the data to suggest the consumer is overextended.

Bottom Line: Monday will be left up to factors other then Economic
Reports. This fact could (IMHO) extend a uptrend another day, should
the Congress Pass the Rescue Bill. Earning from Thor Industries won't
have much of a impact either. No one is thinking about profit taking at
this point, just recouping. So at 11:16am I'm leaning on staying put
until Monday but take less off the table then I originally thought today.

 

[Guest2]

Took 40% off the table. I feel confident (just like on monday) that the
Rescue Bill will pass and the rally will extend through Monday ! :worried:

20%(C) 30%(S) 10%(I) 40%(G)


GOOD LUCK TO EACH AND EVERY ONE OF US !

 

[justbizness45]

Ok, the board is green. One question ! Will this day result in the ever so
often phrase; "BUY THE RUMOR,,,,,,SELL THE NEWS" ?

Your crystal ball was correct.

I'm guessing the worst scenario for those of us in the market looking for a couple of up days would be an affirmative house vote... followed by a big selloff late in the day (after IFT witching hour) ...

2 for 2. Both crystal balls were working. Or as usual the market did exactly what we didn't want it to do.

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2077 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.65%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = 0.3270 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.15%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2312 TSP Cent Overpayment or -1.35%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(9/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents
(9/16/08) -0.2278% -0.2873 tsp cents
(9/17/08) +0.8268% -0.4262 tsp cents
(9/18/08) -2.0361% -0.0642 tsp cents
(9/19/08) -0.4960%+0.0283 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/22/08)+2.5382% -0.4628 tsp cents
(9/23/08) -0.8997% -0.2822 tsp cents
(9/24/08) -0.2518% -0.2347 tsp cents
(9/25/08) -0.5076% -0.1412 tsp cents
(9/26/08) +0.3903% -0.2149 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/29/08)+2.3205% -0.6001 tsp cents
(9/30/08) -3.4591%+0.0025 tsp cents
(10/01/08)-0.7365%-0.1291 tsp cents
(10/02/08)-0.0580%-0.1135 tsp cents
(10/03/08)+0.6851%-0.2312 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -25.14%.....C=...-23.87%....-08.99% (my figures)
DW.= -24.68%.....S=.. -23.10%....
EFA= -32.19%......I=...-30.81%...
AGG= -02.52%.....F=...+01.44%...
...........................G=...+02.90%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -05.83%.....C=...-05.79%....-04.01%(my figures)
DW.= -08.41%.....S=.. -08.56%....
EFA= -05.51%.....I=....-04.14%...
AGG= +00.04%.....F=..+00.59%...
...........................G=..+00.03%..

 

[Guest2]

Start at the first post; A Must Read For Us All !

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=6310

 

[JTH]

I watched the sell off just as the vote was tallied.

Although it was expected and predicted, I was still disappointed. These fluctuations with S&P 40 point swing days is just crazy

 

[Show-me]

I watched the sell off just as the vote was tallied.

Although it was expected and predicted, I was still disappointed. These fluctuations with S&P 40 point swing days is just crazy

Very good for fast money traders. Wish we were them.

 

[Guest2]

Very good for fast money traders. Wish we were them.

Wish we had a sixteenth of the options they have. Maybe they should put
restrictions on stock purchases and selling. Lets see, maybe two (2) per
month since their behavior is so insidious. {sarcasm} :suspicious:

"Wishin and Hopin" (Dionne Warwick) 1963 (Dusty Springfield) 1964

 

[Guest2]

I watched the sell off just as the vote was tallied.

Although it was expected and predicted, I was still disappointed. These fluctuations with S&P 40 point swing days is just crazy

Its all part of the game, if it was easy, we'd be rich by now !

 

[Braveheart]

What is going on right now is the Hedge Funds are using every/any type of rally to sell off just to make even a small gain.

There is no chance for this market to rally under those conditions but those Funds are in a Financial Trap and they don't have the capital for debts therefore because of this bailout all it did was allow some freedom to those on Wall Street to use this as a tool for a sell off.

We can't play by those rules in the TSP so for all of us it's a lose lose and you can bet the Fed will cut the rates my guess is Monday and it might be at least .50 to bring it down to 1.50% or may even bring it to 1.25%. If they don't that 700 Billion will be gone with this market.

No one is buying stocks because like a home what is their real value. Is Apple worth $35 a share and all the rest was hype because no one is buying it at $97 a share so IMO those sitting this one out will only return when it looks stable and this is not even close.

If we don't move by Tuesday I will take my loss learn from it and move on because many predicted this would be a selloff and yes they were right. If the bill passed last Monday as bad as it was would this bottom out like it has as Gov Sarah Palin would say "You Betcha"

 

[Show-me]

Ira from the video blogs believe the huge swings in volatility will settle down now that the Securitization Housing Investment Trust has been passed.

 

[KevinD]

Passed...get it? :laugh:

 

[Guest2]

What is going on right now is the Hedge Funds are using every/any type of rally to sell off just to make even a small gain.

There is no chance for this market to rally under those conditions but those Funds are in a Financial Trap and they don't have the capital for debts therefore because of this bailout all it did was allow some freedom to those on Wall Street to use this as a tool for a sell off.

We can't play by those rules in the TSP so for all of us it's a lose lose and you can bet the Fed will cut the rates my guess is Monday and it might be at least .50 to bring it down to 1.50% or may even bring it to 1.25%. If they don't that 700 Billion will be gone with this market.

No one is buying stocks because like a home what is their real value. Is Apple worth $35 a share and all the rest was hype because no one is buying it at $97 a share so IMO those sitting this one out will only return when it looks stable and this is not even close.

If we don't move by Tuesday I will take my loss learn from it and move on because many predicted this would be a selloff and yes they were right. If the bill passed last Monday as bad as it was would this bottom out like it has as Gov Sarah Palin would say "You Betcha"

Strong points ! Much Appreciated BH !

 

[Guest2]

Ira from the video blogs believe the huge swings in volatility will settle down now that the Securitization Housing Investment Trust has been passed.

Capital Ramifications And Politics​

​

 

[Guest2]

Passed...get it? :laugh:

This is just a drive-by "Hello" as I don't do it nearly as enough
as i should. Stop by more often Kevin, your always welcomed !

 

[KevinD]

This is just a drive-by "Hello" as I don't do it nearly as enough
as i should. Stop by more often Kevin, your always welcomed !

Thanks SB. This MB is a bit different than any other MB I've ever been involved with in that (as you assert in the message to me above) I'm welcome in "your house" (ie: this thread). I can only gather that others on this board wouldn't be as welcoming...though I haven't experienced any hostility here yet. [shrug]

I'll try not to make a nuisance of myself.

 

[Guest2]

Thanks SB. This MB is a bit different than any other MB I've ever been involved with in that (as you assert in the message to me above) I'm welcome in "your house" (ie: this thread). I can only gather that others on this board wouldn't be as welcoming...though I haven't experienced any hostility here yet. [shrug]

I'll try not to make a nuisance of myself.

This MB is extremely unique and you'll find the Welcome Mat has been
put out by at least 99.9% of the membership. All who show the interest
and respect, soon get the feeling of belonging to something bigger then
they originally expected. Given more time, your looked at as a friend.
Last but not least and before you know it, your a part of the family.
If that isn't unique as hell, I don't know what is. Please stop by often.
I'm always open to answering questions (as most are) and having some
fun. Of coarse, making more money is the goal.
All the rest is Icing on this glorious cake!

 

[Guest2]

12% states that we should expect a Fed Funds Rate cut today.
I certainly hope he's right. Maybe they could open another window
or two, as well. Then again, all the windows appear to be already
opened. Europe is hurting and Japan took a crap. It looks like a
-3% day right now and I can't see anything that will stop it. I'm
hoping I'm wrong (like usual) and the Fed allows the Market to chill
out and settle down. The pain is felt by us all.