Squalebear's Account Talk

[JTH]

Am I in denial by being in the Market during this crazy crap. I'm begining to feel like a dumbass for taking such a risk. This week seems to be giving 3%,,,, only to take back 6%,,,, this isn't hard, its practically impossible. :blink:

Here's a tidbit I heard Erin on CNBC say. During Election years, the average gain for the S&P500 during the month of September is 4.4%
Doesn't mean it'll happen this month...:suspicious:

DISCLAIMER: I'm 35 years old with 8 years left in the military. I stopped contributing to TSP when the IFT limits were put in place. Therefore I am more aggresive and willing to take risk others SHOULD NOT consider.

 

[Guest2]

Here's a tidbit I heard Erin on CNBC say. During Election years, the average gain for the S&P500 during the month of September is 4.4% Doesn't mean it'll happen this month...:suspicious:

DISCLAIMER: I'm 35 years old with 8 years left in the military. I stopped contributing to TSP when the IFT limits were put in place. Therefore I am more aggresive and willing to take risk others SHOULD NOT consider.

This might answer a part of your question. I just did a Consolidation IFT
for one hell of a upturn on the news that Lehman Makes A Deal. With Ike
coming too ! I'm aware of a "PRE-Election" run up, then its anyones guess.
With greater risk comes higher gains or bigger losses. It will take some luck
to pull this off,,,,but I'm in as far as I can reach. Good Luck JTH !

COB Today; 25%(F) 26%(C) 34%(S) 15%(I)

 

[Guest2]

As you can plainly see, the Overpayment has shrunk below < 1% and the
O/D Tracker has fallen into the BLACK "not seen too often" area. This
is as close to the Deficit Side as we've seen in weeks. When entering this
area, I watch very closely as a reversal into the Deficit Side becomes a
stronger possiblity. Nothing I see tells me that yet, but the possibility still
exists non the less. My gut tells me that we'll stay on the Overpayment
side and we could benefit through greater gains or lower losses from this
position. Monday's close might give us a better idea from the Fund Mgrs.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2252 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.57%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.3562 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.99%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.1778 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.92%:nuts:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents :nuts:
WEEKLY -0.3685% -0.0939 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often) :nuts:
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

On Tuesday 9/9/08 I experienced the largest one day loss, to my balance,
since I began tracking my returns some 3 or more years ago. It was very
hard to swallow and if I used emotion to dictate my decisions, I would have
never recouped most of it (as I did by weeks end). This is a reminder to
myself that when blood starts to flow into the street, the decisions made
can be the difference between a flesh wound and a mortal injury. This fact
plays a big part in my decision to stay put when Lehman and Ike dominate
the news and the Economic/Earnings Reports aren't giving us much hope in
the near future. I worry about the sudden 500 pt. drop within the Dow
Industrials and watch (ever so closely) for a signal to pull the trigger.
Some say the handwritting is on the wall. Others say its one of the greatest
opportunities we've had all year. I'm taking a risk now, but my gut is telling
me that this is a short term venture and I'll be seeking the (G) soon enough.

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -14.76%.....C=... -13.38%....-02.44% (my figures):blink:
DW.= -11.33%.....S=... -09.60%....
EFA= -23.06%.....I=.... -22.30%...
AGG= +00.04%....F=...+03.08%...
...........................G=...+02.67%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -02.32%.....C=... -02.20%....-03.17% (my figures):blink:
DW.= -03.78%.....S=... -03.33%....
EFA= -04.91%.....I=.....-05.60%...
AGG=+00.46%.....F=... +00.89%...
...........................G=....+00.13%..

 

[JTH]

I'm taking a risk now, but my gut is telling
me that this is a short term venture and I'll be seeking the (G) soon enough.

I'm on the same page there Brother Bear

For myself, next week will be a real test of where this market is prepared to go. If we pierce the bottoms, then I'll pick the quickest/best opportunity to get out.

For now, I'm going to relax, work on the honey-to-do-list, and pray for my fellow Texans in the path of Ike.

 

[nasa1974]

On Tuesday 9/9/08 I experienced the largest one day loss, to my balance,
since I began tracking my returns some 3 or more years ago. It was very
hard to swallow... I worry about the sudden 500 pt. drop within the Dow
Industrials and watch (ever so closely) for a signal to pull the trigger.
Some say the handwritting is on the wall. Others say its one of the greatest opportunities we've had all year. I'm taking a risk now, but my gut is telling me that this is a short term venture and I'll be seeking the (G) soon enough.

SB, my jedi master, I feel your loss. I to have been wounded by the dark side. Right now I have to release all fear and rely on the force.

May the force be with us.

 

[Guest2]

Currently the ETF known as the EFA (made to reflect the MSCI EAFE
INDEX) is showing a YTD loss of -23.06%,,, where the TSP's (I) Fund is
currently showing a YTD loss of -22.30%. The differences between the
two are currently very close (0.76%) which is quite normal.

However, on June 24, 2008 thru June 30, 2008 the spread between the
EFA and (I) Fund went from the Deficit side of my O/D Tracker to the
Overpayment side. The changes were nothing short of amazing. Here are
the differences we saw when the Deficit changed into Overpayments;
(-.23%)...... (+1.71%)....... (+1.92%)...... (+2.07%).......(+1.97%)

Within the July 21, 2008 FRTIB Minutes I've found one of the reasons why
the TSP's (I) Fund has Outperformed the MSCI EAFE INDEX. Or at least,
this is what Ms. Ray told the Board during the open meeting; and I quote;

"The I Fund has outperformed the index for the year-to-date by 26 basis
points due to taxes (the index is net of taxes but we do not pay taxes)."

Am I the only one who finds it incredibly coincidental that just when a
amazing change takes place within the TSP, the Board and Ms. Ray are
publicly explaining it away as the difference between Taxation and Non
Taxation. Of coarse, I'm not familar with the taxing of Indexes and I'm
sure this has a roll in the differences. But that leaves me with one very
interesting question! When the (I) Fund "Underperforms" against the
MSCI EAFE Index, does that mean the Index didn't pay taxes ? This
question is posed somewhat sarcastically, but it still makes for some
very interesting thought. At minimum, it makes you say; Hmmmmmmm?

 

[Callme_CO]

hmmmmmmmmm :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

I still think there are RATS in the attic!!!

 

[Guest2]

I still think there are RATS in the attic!!!

As they say, when you see one, you got a hundred. I couldn't agree more.
But their not just in the Attic. I'm putting rubberbands around my pant
legs just to play it safe. :toung:

 

[FogSailing]

Hmmmmmmmmmmm and HAW

FS

 

[Guest2]

Treasury Said to Call on Wall Street to Back Lehman (Update1)
By Bradley Keoun and Jesse Westbrook
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner urged the heads of Wall Street's biggest firms to find a solution to the plight of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., signaling their reluctance to use government funds to bail out the investment bank, two people familiar with the talks said.

Lehman Gets Bids From Bain, Clayton for Asset-Management Unit
By Jason Kelly and Jonathan Keehner
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. received bids for its asset-management unit from private- equity firms including Bain Capital LLC and Clayton Dubilier & Rice Inc., said people familiar with the situation.

Paulson, Bernanke Brave `Raptors' in Resisting Aid for Lehman
By Craig Torres and Shannon D. Harrington
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Henry Paulson and Ben S. Bernanke may have to weather more speculative attacks on financial institutions as they resist using public funds to aid the sale of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

 

[Guest2]

Will Lehman be forced to break up?
By MarketWatch
Last update: 6:45 p.m. EDT Sept. 13, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The forced breakup of Lehman Bros. or even its liquidation became a possible scenario over the weekend as talks dragged on unsuccessfully Saturday between top U.S. financial officials and executives at major Wall Street firms trying to forestall the collapse of the investment firm and to keep weakness among financials from spreading.

 

[Guest2]

Instead of a Market crash, today appears to be a "give back" of the last
three days of positive gains. Right back to Tuesdays closing prices. Just
a thought !

 

[Guest2]

I worry about the sudden 500 pt. drop within the Dow Industrials and watch (ever so closely) for a signal to pull the trigger.

As I posted this gut feeling, I also felt that I had more time then I did.
Pulling the trigger was delay and a hefty price was paid today. I want
everyone to know that "this too shall pass." For those of us in the Risk
Funds today, I share your disappointment ! Your not alone !

 

[Birchtree]

You must remember that the reasons we get paid more as equity investors are the ups and downs we experience in the market. Awhile back I was lamenting having left $120K on the table by selling my AKS position too early - but after today I'm sort of glad I did. To stay true to your investing strategy you must act the opposite of how you feel - that's a valuable lesson from a 500 point down day. I used today as an opportunistic day to buy a few more stinkers. IMHO now is not the time to be pusilanimous.

 

[Guest2]

You must remember that the reasons we get paid more as equity investors are the ups and downs we experience in the market. Awhile back I was lamenting having left $120K on the table by selling my AKS position too early - but after today I'm sort of glad I did. To stay true to your investing strategy you must act the opposite of how you feel - that's a valuable lesson from a 500 point down day. I used today as an opportunistic day to buy a few more stinkers. IMHO now is not the time to be pusilanimous.

As of today, I can't even afford to buy a dictionary to look up those big
words you use. However, your point has come through, loud and clear. I
was in the Market during the 9/11 slide and that too, was quickly squashed
into the history books. We shall overcome and tomorrow's another day !
Last but not least, even though I have no ability to utilize todays lesson
as a Tax Writeoff, I'm still on board with my fingers crossed. Here's hoping
that this shook the tree enough, to justify the start of our long awaited
Bull Train to have finally arrived. Maybe AIG and WaMu won't be next and
the Fed won't create another bad day tomarrow !

 

[TRAFFIC_DOG]

"Why, anybody can have a brain. That's a very mediocre commodity! Every pusillanimous creature that crawls on the earth or slinks through slimy seas has a brain! Back where I come from, we have universities, seats of great learning where men go to become great thinkers. And when they come out, they think deep thoughts — and with no more brains than you have." - Wizard of Oz

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2148 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.57%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.3407 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.99%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3323 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.79%:worried:

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents
(9/12/08) -0.3907% -0.1778 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.3685% -0.0939 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/15/08) +0.8638% -0.3323 tsp cents:worried:


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin):worried:
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -18.77%.....C=... -17.46%....-06.67% (my figures)
DW.= -15.22%.....S=... -13.57%....
EFA= -26.33%.....I=.... -24.93%...
AGG= +00.43%....F=...+03.59%...
...........................G=...+02.71%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -07.03%.....C=... -06.91%....-06.19% (my figures)
DW.= -08.17%.....S=... -07.71%....
EFA= -09.16%.....I=.....-08.99%...
AGG=+00.86%.....F=... +01.38%...
...........................G=....+00.16%..