Squalebear's Account Talk

Nasa, Your more then welcome to post anything on this thread.

I made a IFT today; 25%(F) 25%(C) 35%(S) 15%(I)
In the Automated Tracker I stated; Spread and Hedge!

My gut tells me that the (I) Fund may be at bottom and
the (F) Fund won't hurt any large gains that are offered.
But it will hedge some of the losses (most the time). Not
by much, but some.
 
SB,

Hope you do not mind that I am using your account to post this article. I have it on my account but your account is read more often than I mine. This is on my account from 9/8. I have been reading a lot about buy and hold strategy on this MB.

I found this article interesting this morning. http://seekingalpha.com/article/9441...t?source=yahoo Especially "Thesis 5". With todays market the way it is the FRTIB strategy will not work for our retirement stability.

Small rallies within those months weren't mentioned in the article.
But timing the market with high volitility and limits make the article
current and I'm not in it, to see, much more in the way of losses. The
trigger finger is itchy and its aiming at the Risk Funds. ;)
 
Nasa, Your more then welcome to post anything on this thread.

I made a IFT today; 25%(F) 25%(C) 35%(S) 15%(I)
In the Automated Tracker I stated; Spread and Hedge!

My gut tells me that the (I) Fund may be at bottom and
the (F) Fund won't hurt any large gains that are offered.
But it will hedge some of the losses (most the time). Not
by much, but some.


Good luck SB...I hope you can turn a quick profit.
 
Nasa, Your more then welcome to post anything on this thread.

I made a IFT today; 25%(F) 25%(C) 35%(S) 15%(I)
In the Automated Tracker I stated; Spread and Hedge!

My gut tells me that the (I) Fund may be at bottom and
the (F) Fund won't hurt any large gains that are offered.
But it will hedge some of the losses (most the time). Not
by much, but some.

Good luck SB. I am staying put for right now. I am only 1600 above my 1/1/2008 entry point so what do I have to lose. Monday made up half of my Friday losses. Hopefully today will do the same. I hope I can finish September even money. Your strategy is sound.
The market has survived the 10-12 sell off. Green numbers are getting higher and hopefully we can survive the 3:30 let down.:worried:
Since I got involved with the MB I do not remember seeing the negative numbers so high up in the tracker. And we need to find out what 2Easy is smoking because he has some great numbers. Come October 1st I may have to start shadowing the top 5. You listening CP:D SB will always be my Jedi master but the force is strong in you CP.

May the force be with us.:cool:
 
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2165 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.53%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.3234 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.84%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2831 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.49%:)

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents :)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -16.09%.....C=... -14.77%....-03.49% (my figures)
DW.= -12.53%.....S=... -10.96%....
EFA= -24.37%.....I=.... -23.20%...
AGG= +00.57%....F=...+03.53%...
...........................G=... +02.65%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -03.91%.....C=... -04.45%....-04.15% (my figures)
DW.= -05.15%.....S=... -06.14%....
EFA= -06.64%.....I=.....-07.59%...
AGG=+00.99%.....F=... +01.47%...
...........................G=....+00.10%...
 
Very interesting article L2R;
These type of practices have been ongoing for ages. The MAJOR money movers have always gotten "Big Brakes" - or been sheltered from the norm. The bigger you are - or the move you can MOVE MONEY - the less you have to deal with "real life strains".

My guess is: As MONEY becomes the dominant "pressing issue" these practices will be increasingly exposed. The more these are exposed - the more other "hidden things" will be uncovered.


Woops - almost forgot: Good Morining SB
 
Woops - almost forgot: Good Morining SB

Steady,
Sorry for the late response. I saw the Dow Futures -150 pts. and decided
not to go through agony this morning,,,, maybe thats why we ended up
better then expected today. Among other reasons, of coarse !
Good Morning, Afternoon and Evening to you too ! :toung:

L2R,
From what little I saw of the news, Oil Sex Scandle got more coverage.
Go fugure !

09-11-2001: ALWAYS REMEMBER !
 
09-11-2001: ALWAYS REMEMBER !

Based on the Minus,Plus,Minus,Plus we've seen on the weekly figures,
I expect the Fund Managers to add to the Overpayment tomorrow. Even
if only to the Blue Area of the tracker, this will help lower losses or achieve
a little more in the way of gains. Lets hope for a positive day tomorrow that
makes all Funds see Green ! A Lehman deal wouldn't hurt either. Those week
ending announcements are getting old. Ike could do us all a favor and head
south, but it won't. Its gonna get ugly for those refinaries.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2241 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.57%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.3467 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.96%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2491 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.32%:)

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents
(9/10/08) -0.1535% -0.2831 tsp cents
(9/11/08) -0.1739% -0.2491 tsp cents :)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Last edited:
09-11-2001: ALWAYS REMEMBER !

HIND SIGHT IS 20/20 AND IT APPEARS THAT I COULD HAVE
PUT MORE IN THE (F) FUND AS A HEDGE AGAINST DIPS. I'LL
REMEMBER THAT NEXT TIME. BUT THE FACT THAT I SPREAD
OUT MY ALLOCATIONS (DIVERSIFY) WAS A GOOD MOVE FOR
TODAY AS I WAS 100% (S) PRIOR. THE (C) FUND CARRIED ME
TO A VERY NICE GAIN TODAY.

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -14.94%.....C=... -13.56%....-02.99% (my figures):worried:
DW.= -12.17%.....S=... -10.49%....
EFA= -24.54%.....I=.... -23.50%...
AGG= +00.57%....F=...+03.52%...
...........................G=...+02.66%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -02.53%.....C=... -02.42%....-03.68% (my figures):worried:
DW.= -04.74%.....S=... -04.32%....
EFA= -06.86%.....I=.....-07.16%...
AGG=+00.86%.....F=... +01.32%...
...........................G=...+00.11%...
 
Last edited:
Steady,
Sorry for the late response. I saw the Dow Futures -150 pts. and decided
not to go through agony this morning,,,, maybe thats why we ended up
better then expected today. Among other reasons, of coarse !
Good Morning, Afternoon and Evening to you too ! :toung:

L2R,
From what little I saw of the news, Oil Sex Scandle got more coverage.
Go fugure !

09-11-2001: ALWAYS REMEMBER !
Well that report on the hedge funds scandal was due to be released later today so maybe it will make headlines tomorrow. Just saw something funny in the lounge.:laugh:
 
(C) FUND CARRIED ME
TO A VERY NICE GAIN TODAY.

I must admit, I was surprised to see us get buried so quickly this month. It's been a drastic September with wild swings and some of us are still digging ourselves out of the hole. We now seem to be trading in a lower channel.

Hang in there Brother Bear, the months not over yet, we've tested the bottom more then once, and with all this bad news we still haven't fallen off a cliff. If all the sideline money gets antsy they may jump back in and take this market off like a rocket.

Still 25% S-Fund (.43% MTD), I'm beating the G-fund for the moment, it's better then nothing... I'm in it to win it... :cheesy:
 
We now seem to be trading in a lower channel.
Hang in there Brother Bear, the months not over yet. Still 25% S-Fund (.43% MTD), I'm beating the G-fund for the moment, it's better then nothing... I'm in it to win it... :cheesy:

I'm more surprised that we haven't seen a 500 point drop within the
Dow in one day. I've seen it before. Asia is currently rallying and the
Financials are leading the way, currently. That brings me hope. Now
lets get Lehman to broker a private deal with a capital rich company
and watch the market spring upward towards the heavens. By the
way, If your beating the (G) as this stage of the game, I just want
you to know that there are guys/gals making 6 figures or more who
are attempting and failing to accomplish what you've acheived. And
they manage Mutual Funds, Retirement Accounts etc......
Good for you ! Just be careful as it can change faster then Hurricane
Ike's intensity and direction. ;)
 
U.S. Helps Lehman Go Up for Sale
Regulators Are Seeking a Weekend Deal Not Involving Public Money
By David Cho, Heather Landy and Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 12, 2008; Page A01

The Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are actively helping Lehman Brothers put itself up for sale, and officials are hoping a deal will be in place this weekend before the Asian markets open on Monday, according to sources familiar with the matter.

The government is looking for an agreement that would not involve public money. One scenario that is emerging includes multiple suitors acquiring different pieces of the venerable investment bank, which has suffered staggering losses from its bets on real estate and mortgages. The situation was still fluid yesterday, and there was no guarantee what form an agreement would take or even that it would be in place by Monday, the sources said on condition of anonymity because they had not been authorized to speak.

Regulators have been in touch with Lehman on an almost hourly basis in recent days. High-ranking officials including New York Federal Reserve President Timothy F. Geithner, Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke have been discussing a broad range of possibilities for Lehman, trying to determine the risks each outcome could pose to the financial system, the sources said. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox and Lehman chief executive Richard S. Fuld have also been speaking several times daily. Lehman declined to comment yesterday.

The effort by regulators comes just a few days after Treasury and other federal officials announced they were taking control of mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in one of the largest government interventions into the private markets in history. A collapse of Lehman could present many of the same systemic risks that regulators sought to eliminate in March when they arranged the sale of Bear Stearns to J.P. Morgan Chase. That deal was done over the course of a weekend during which Fed and Treasury officials feared the absence of a deal could cause a global financial catastrophe.

Lehman's problems have been different. Bear Stearns was the victim of a bank run, as investors refused to continue lending it money. Lehman's problems have developed more gradually, through waves of losses on investments in real estate and securities tied to mortgages. Lehman also has a larger cash cushion than Bear Stearns had. On Wednesday, Lehman reported about $42 billion of liquidity, compared with the $17 billion cash position Bear Stearns said it had in the days before its collapse. But beyond having cash in the bank, brokerages such as Lehman need continued access to funding to maintain confidence in the institution. Earlier this week, Lehman reported a $3.9 billion third-quarter loss and said it would sell a majority stake in its investment-management division, cut its dividend and spin off about $30 billion of real estate assets.

The firm has access to a special lending window the Fed created in March, at the time of Bear Stearns' rescue, though it apparently has not tapped this source even as investors' confidence in its viability has been shaken in recent days. The Fed reported yesterday afternoon that there were no loans outstanding at that window as of Wednesday. However, simply having that source of cash available may be enough to keep lenders willing to extend loans to the firm. Fed leaders do not want to provide financial backing for an acquisition of Lehman, as the Fed did for Bear Stearns. The government's plans also stop far short of the full takeover that occurred with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed, which has faced criticism for its efforts to rescue large financial firms, does not want the markets to view it as an endless source of bailouts. But even helping engineer a buyout amounts to a form of government intervention. Sen. Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.), said the Fed should think twice before rescuing Lehman. "I hope they will not use all their powers or all their rabbits in doing this," Shelby said yesterday in an interview on C-SPAN's "Newsmakers." "There's a list of troubled institutions that may require assistance, and the question is, is the list very short, and have we dealt with the majority of the problems, or are we just beginning?" said Brian Sack, Washington-based senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. "The Fed can only do so much."

Moody's on Wednesday warned it would lower its credit ratings on Lehman if the firm failed to complete a "strategic transaction with a stronger financial partner." Lehman's announcement this week did little to calm investors' concerns about the firm, the smallest of the four major Wall Street investment banks. Its share price fell 42 percent yesterday, to $4.22, in heavy trading with more than 472 million shares exchanging hands, continuing a precipitous fall from more than $60 a share in February. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, said the plunge was emblematic of a market gripped by fear. "I don't see where the economy is falling off the cliff. I don't see where there's big evidence of massively escalating credit default. And I don't see where anything has really changed in the last few days to make Lehman a $4 stock versus a $20 stock. So what we're dealing with, I think, is less fundamentals than fear," Paulsen said. "It's spooky because I'm not sure anyone has an answer as to how you'd end it."
 
Ok, I'm not one to panic or call for Depression on the horizon, however,
the Federal Reserve and Treasury Dept. have been putting out fires in
Financials for quite a while now. Hoping to make some sort of fire break
road to stop the spread and avoid a "Global Financial Catastrophy".

Or, is this "Controlled Caos" with a line of Financial Institutions just waiting
in line to be next. Something tells me that the line is growing longer then
the Unemployment Lines and this 1 alarm fire is about to be upgraded to
a 5 alarm disaster. :worried:

Am I in denial by being in the Market during this crazy crap. I'm begining
to feel like a dumbass for taking such a risk. This week seems to be giving
3%,,,, only to take back 6%,,,, this isn't hard, its practically impossible. :blink:
 
I'm begining to feel like a dumbass for taking such a risk. :blink:

You're anything but that my wonderful brother.

Squalebear - you are finding the pieces and adding them together and OBVIOUSLY you are doing a great job of assessing the conditions that exist and the situation at hand.

With the same information (along with some other things) - I came to the same conclusion; sounded the BEAR ALARM and went G Fund.

But you made a little money the past few days. :cheesy::)
 
The government is looking for an agreement that would not involve public money. One scenario that is emerging includes multiple suitors acquiring different pieces of the venerable investment bank, which has suffered staggering losses from its bets on real estate and mortgages.

And that is EXACTLY what they should have done with BSC. Instead, they stepped in with a bailout with PUBLIC MONEY and set a precedent for every other failed institution and business (automakers, airlines) to get in line for the same treatment.
 
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