Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I'll tell you what...I've waffled back and forth about 20 times this morning between selling 100%, keeping it in, 50/50, 75/25, etc etc.

Sure, I'd like a nice gain today, maybe it will happen. If it doesn't, then it confirms the chart is absolutely broken...so I don't want to be in when that happens. And sure, we could rally for two more days...but probably only financials. Nasdaq being negative right now as I type is a bad, bad sign.

Really, I want to get through Q3 earnings and see what happens.

Good Luck CP ! Its hard these days !

 

[luv2read]

I'm still looking for those Pink Fur Handcuffs in the store, she asked Santa for. :laugh:

I'm surprised you haven't comented about the Pink Fur. Maybe you missed it ?

yeah i missed this one SB....I don't know about pink fur but I prefer pink velvet fur lined myself with a little feather trim...you can get plain pink ones from Sheriff Joe ...I posted that info earlier.:laugh:

 

[Guest2]

yeah i missed this one SB....I don't know about pink fur but I prefer pink velvet fur lined myself with a little feather trim...you can get plain pink ones from Sheriff Joe ...I posted that info earlier.:laugh:

(LoL) I'm not one for buying duplicate gifts,,,,maybe a matching set of
Leg Irons might do nicely. Looking at the Market right now its driving me
absolutely Nnuts ! May the Bulls break out that 6 pack of Redbull and get
motivated after their champagne lunches. Anyway, I gotta hit the springs
and get some shut-eye. I'll catch up a little later. I wish ya well ! Ciao !

 

[Silverbird]

Here's one for your amusement, SB. Bear takes hubcap off one car, tries to give it to someone in one of the cars behind that recently had its hubcaps stolen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2591064/Bear-steals-hubcap-from-car---then-gives-it-back.html

 

[Guest2]

Here's one for your amusement, SB. Bear takes hubcap off one car, tries to give it to someone in one of the cars behind that recently had its hubcaps stolen.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2591064/Bear-steals-hubcap-from-car---then-gives-it-back.html

Courtship at its finest ! Glad the original owner of the Hubcap didn't
put up a fight or anything. That was funny ! Thanks ! :toung:

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2221 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.53%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.3197 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.77%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3171 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.63%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents



THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -13.66%.....C=... -12.30%....-00.75% (my figures)
DW.= -10.15%.....S=... -08.61%....
EFA= -22.59%.....I=.... -21.28%...
AGG= +00.20%.....F=...+03.62%...
...........................G=... +02.63%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -01.11%.....C=... -01.03%....-01.61% (my figures)
DW.= -02.55%.....S=... -02.32%....
EFA= -04.37%.....I=.....-04.36%...
AGG=+00.62%.....F=... +01.41%...
...........................G=....+00.08%...

 

[Guest2]

I don't know why yesterdays (I) Fund performance seemed to be a little
different then what we've seen, but, the outperformance of the (C) and
(S) Funds was exciting to see. You have to go back to August 5th, 2008
to see a return of +0.40 TSP Cents and that is certainly SWEET ! I wish
to congratulate everyone who made the decision to go into (I) Fund for
yesterday and hope this is the begining of a long awaited rebound.

 

[Corepuncher]

I fear the worst.

Slowing economy = less spending = loss of jobs = more loan defaults = more debt on FED balance sheet = falling dollar = rising oil = Goldman 150 oil prediction coming true = falling stock market which equals RBS dire predictions coming true. K.D. says S&P 3 digits within 6 months, others calling for a crash anytime between now and Feb (as in Poolmans videos). It's a bear market and once the market realizes what is happening it's into the tank.

Seriously, since there is so much risk, why not go into the G fund for a few months? Really, what do you have to lose?? Is the S&P gonna scream back up to 1400-1500?? No way. VERY Limited upside in the near term, at least through the holiday season which will be bad. Sit it out, is my advice. Keep your money.

 

[Steadygain]

I fear the worst.

Slowing economy = less spending = loss of jobs = more loan defaults = more debt on FED balance sheet = falling dollar = rising oil = Goldman 150 oil prediction coming true = falling stock market which equals RBS dire predictions coming true. K.D. says S&P 3 digits within 6 months, others calling for a crash anytime between now and Feb (as in Poolmans videos). It's a bear market and once the market realizes what is happening it's into the tank.

Seriously, since there is so much risk, why not go into the G fund for a few months? Really, what do you have to lose?? Is the S&P gonna scream back up to 1400-1500?? No way. VERY Limited upside in the near term, at least through the holiday season which will be bad. Sit it out, is my advice. Keep your money.

Ahh - a man after my own heart - or perhaps it's better worded as: Nice to see someone else see things like me.

I see today and the climate "they are trying so desperately to paint" as a 'Bright New Beginning' and we're on the way to glorious days. But strictly looking at the EVIDENCE - AT ALL THE PEICES THAT WOULD TELL US WHETHER THINGS ARE GOOD OR BAD - anyone at this point is clinging on to the last ray of hope.

BTW - Squalebear - as ususal, you're home feels good.

 

[Guest2]

I fear the worst. Sit it out, is my advice. Keep your money.

All these factors, and yes, even your most appreciated opinion is weighed
into the decision making process. The opportunity to profit exists and I'm
in agreement that the amount could be limited. Earnings and the National
Election will be cause for volitility come late October/November. This month
is well known for its disappointing results. This, among many other reasons
is why I stick with a monthly goal and not with a three month goal. Add that
to the limits and I'm right back to looking like a Hit&Run investor. Its not
what I want, but I will not hold onto a decision while losing my jammies.

But strictly looking at the EVIDENCE - AT ALL THE PEICES THAT WOULD TELL US WHETHER THINGS ARE GOOD OR BAD. BTW - Squalebear - as ususal, you're home feels good.

We've been hearing the predictions of Depression for some time now. You
have told me before; "Don't get wrapped up in the hype". The pieces of the
puzzle you've eluded to is the best way to keep it real. I see a minor
opportunity to take advantage of this short term upward move. But I
also see a dramatic pull back below the July Lows before long and to
err on the side of caution is as wise as it gets. :embarrest:

Steady:
Its your welcomed posts which make this Home like sitting next to a
warm fireplace in the middle of a snow storm. For that, we all give
thanks to you for making it so.

 

[JTH]

Seriously, since there is so much risk, why not go into the G fund for a few months? Really, what do you have to lose?? Is the S&P gonna scream back up to 1400-1500??

Hey now you can't possibly be worried about people like me catching up to you?

I'll tell you what, if we had been able to short these markets, we would have made a killing this year and I would have gone long on the shorts with a fire and forget....

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2146 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.53%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.3067 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.76%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3098 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.64%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents
(9/05/08) -0.5642% -0.2717 tsp cents
WEEKLY -0.1868% -0.0574 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/08/08) +0.1989% -0.3171 tsp cents
(9/09/08) +0.0157% -0.3098 tsp cents



THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -16.61%.....C=... -15.29%....-04.81% (my figures)
DW.= -13.58%.....S=... -12.10%....
EFA= -25.10%.....I=.... -23.82%...
AGG= +00.64%....F=...+03.68%...
...........................G=... +02.64%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -04.52%.....C=... -04.45%....-05.37% (my figures)
DW.= -06.37%.....S=... -06.14%....
EFA= -07.61%.....I=.....-07.59%...
AGG=+01.06%.....F=... +01.47%...
...........................G=....+00.09%...

 

[Guest2]

View attachment 4635​

 

[alevin]

:laugh: Wrong gender, SB! You wanna label the players, I'm sure CP and ATCJeff would be happy to assist.

 

[nasa1974]

SB, Jedi master there has been a serious disruption in the force. The Dark Side has taken some control from us. I can only hope that we can find some solace in the force that will lead to a better way.

I have to stay firm in my current conviction so that I can hope to break even for the month. :blink:

Darth-Bear


May the force be with us.

 

[Guest2]

:laugh: Wrong gender, SB! You wanna label the players, I'm sure CP and ATCJeff would be happy to assist.

Thanks Alevin, but Lucy likes a good spanking in public and yesterday
seemed to be the perfect time. Darn thing was a animated .gif too. :toung:

 

[Guest2]

SB, Jedi master there has been a serious disruption in the force. The Dark Side has taken some control from us. I can only hope that we can find some solace in the force that will lead to a better way.

I have to stay firm in my current conviction so that I can hope to break even for the month.
Darth-Bear
May the force be with us.

I'm guessing its going to take Neo to get his butt kicked and shot, before
he realizes that he has control over the Matrix. Until such time, Agent Smith
is going to spread his infectious doom throughout this doom & gloom Matrix.
Judging from the amount of bullets the Market (Matrix) is throwing at us,
its getting mighty tough to dodge them suckers. The Oricle predicts that
this must occur before the Matrix see's some sunshine, but I fear that the
Architect has played this scenario out before and has added yet another
twist in the program. What to do? What to do?

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

Hope you do not mind that I am using your account to post this article. I have it on my account but your account is read more often than I mine. This is on my account from 9/8. I have been reading a lot about buy and hold strategy on this MB.

I found this article interesting this morning. http://seekingalpha.com/article/9441...t?source=yahoo Especially "Thesis 5". With todays market the way it is the FRTIB strategy will not work for our retirement stability.