Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

What a rollercoaster ride. Anyone brave enough to figure this day out,
I welcome your comments. Almost 1% debt payback (0.88%) in a day.
Now thats volitility for your soul. Maybe we should have a $VIX setup
for the TSP Funds? If you jumped in the (I) Fund today, your timing
appears to be spiritualy guided and well placed. Good Luck!


YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2200 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.51%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2979 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.63%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2772TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.39%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3852 TSP Cent Overpayment or +3.14%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -13.17%.....C=... -11.82%....+0.59% (my figures)
DW.= -08.89%.....S=... -07.45%....
EFA= -20.60%.....I=.... -19.46%...
AGG= -00.49%.....F=... +02.70%...
...........................G=... +02.58%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -00.61%.....C=... -00.56%....-00.36% (my figures)
DW.= -01.19%.....S=... -01.10%....
EFA= -01.96%.....I=.....-02.18%...
AGG= -00.08%.....F=... +00.52%...
...........................G=....+00.03%...

For those who check out my O/D Tracker (previously posted) you
can also see (at a glance) how closely the EFA and (I) Fund are
reflected one another (just above). This also allows me to remind
myself of how bad YTD could have been and keeps me close to the
MTD goals at hand. My gut tells me that tomorrow will be a good
day for all of us. Cross your fingers and toes! See ya's in the morn.

 

[luv2read]

What a rollercoaster ride. Anyone brave enough to figure this day out,
I welcome your comments. Almost 1% debt payback (0.88%) in a day.
Now thats volitility for your soul. If you jumped in the (I) Fund today,
your timing appears to be spiritualy guided and well placed. Good Luck!

fits right in with the news stories (check threads posted earlier) doesn't it. Rob Peter to pay Paul..or the Piper...

 

[nasa1974]

Wow, I leave for a minute or two and look what happens ! :toung:



Nasa; The only question that
I have is; why 10% in the (G) ? What benefit did that serve, other then
making you feel better about not being 100% at risk ? I'm not trying to
be sarcastic, I am truly confused and seek your thoughts.

SB, Thanks. I am really lucky I was told about this MB. There are many people I have come to respect in many ways. To everyone, I truely mean it. Anyway, why 10% in the G? That is where I have my biweekly TSP money going into and payday is Thursday. At least I am guaranteed some profits.


May the force be with us.

 

[nasa1974]

OK folks,

Here's the article I sent to SB. Awhile back we were trying to figure out what happened on/around June 25 that caused Barclays to change the way the I fund was handled. Braveheart nailed it, but I just found this additional article. It also explains why the sudden change. This one, combined with today's news about Osprie's hedge fund failing, alarmed me because there no guarantees against losses by the fund manager and all of our TSP monies are supposedly invested in Barclays index (not hedge)funds, but do we have any guarantees of that? We do know that Barclays was heavily invested in BSC's (Bear Stearns) two hedges that failed last year - and the outcome of that.

Just found this article

L2R, Here is a link from Govexec.com. http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0808/081808b1.htm Our money is secure if BGI goes under. But that doesn't protect our money from a failing market. Only G fund is guarunteed. Unless the Sharia funds become part of our I fund portfolio I do not believe that BGI can use our money. LEGALLY.....:suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

Steady,

I wish I had your faith in our Gov't protedting our retirement funds, but after 25 years with the Feds and just plain old living, they will only do something if it is in their best interest.

I just contacted NARFE again about all of this including what occurred with the IFT's and they ask me to send them am email outlining our concerns and thoughts. Again they may have been blowing sunshine ( I won't elaborate of the location of the sunshine so as not to spoil folks appetites)

So we shall see. I am skeptical of really getting any sort of help from NARFE, because they are probably funded somewhat by the feds.

That's one reason, I'm really leery about leaving the G fund, until all this financially hocus pocus clears up, though I will jump in and out quickly, but I worry about the safety of our funds. I could be just an old fart nearing retirement and figger the Feds screw everything else up, why not this.

CB

CB, This may not belay all your fears but check out this link from Govexec.com http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0808/081808b1.htm

 

[nasa1974]

Steady,

You know the depth of the respect and admiration I have for you, but I don't think you're getting the whole picture. Please see these threads, in this order. This has NOTHING to do with IFT limits, it's all about the security of our funds and WHERE they are being invested. Sure, if Barclays goes belly up the Fed can just print up $350B and dump it back in TSP, then sue Barclays to recover it...what is that going to do to the market, financials, etc....Barclays is NOT a USA firm and doesn't have to play by the same rules. That might even be why there are no surety guarantees in the contract...just "the fund manager can VOLUNTARILY make up the losses OR the government and shareholders can sue..."

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=176167&postcount=1252

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=178281&postcount=1377

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=178284&postcount=4194

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=178320&postcount=1392

L2R, this is some of the information I posted awhile back. This is a press release when Barclays got our TSP funds. http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0808/081808b1.htm

This is some of what it said:

Washington, D.C. (September 6, 2006) — The Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board announced today that Barclays Global Investors, N.A., of San Francisco, California, has been selected to manage the Common Stock Index Investment (C) Fund, the Small Capitalization Stock Index Investment (S) Fund, the International Stock Index Investment (I) Fund, and the Fixed Income Index Investment (F) Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) for Federal employees. The selection results from competitive procurements initiated by the Board in May 2006 through release of Requests for Proposals (RFPs).
Barclays is the largest manager of institutional assets in the world and the largest provider of both index and quantitative investment strategies with over $1.6 trillion in assets under management on behalf of 2,860 institutional clients. The Board intends to make a formal award shortly through a contract with Barclays.

We are just 1 of 2860 clients that Barclays manages. Not much comfort but maybe just a little.


The force is with us.

PS... SB, Sorry Bro for tying up your post.

 

[luv2read]

L2R, Here is a link from Govexec.com. http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0808/081808b1.htm Our money is secure if BGI goes under. But that doesn't protect our money from a failing market. Only G fund is guarunteed. Unless the Sharia funds become part of our I fund portfolio I do not believe that BGI can use our money. LEGALLY.....:suspicious:

NASA, thanks, we discussed that article when it first appeared. It really isn't about contract award...the contract is in place and it's up for option renewal. It's a recent fluff piece designed to ally fears that have been raised here - we know FRTIB monitors the MB. NO the TSP is NOT safe. From the same article:

Emswiler also said any losses caused by a rogue trading incident would not affect the TSP, largely because BGI could voluntarily make up the losses or the TSP could sue for those losses under a 1934 securities law. Andrew Saul, chairman of the board, suggested that TSP officials talk to BGI about guaranteeing the make-up of rogue trading losses when the agency renews its contract. "This is a thing to indemnify us," he said.

I know there's a difference between rogue trading losses and losses from BGI going belly-up, but IMO the whole thing is suspect - another Enron or BGI waiting to happen. I don't have any faith at all that BGI would voluntarily make good OR that we would see one penny of that money if TSP sued for the losses...maybe our great grandchildren would. The government does NOT have a sterling history of managing trust funds or dealing honestly with the owners of the funds...take a look at Cobell vs Norton (DOI)...thats the Indian Trust Funds lawsuit. Over 100 years of neglect and theft, 10 years in court and it's still not settled.

 

[fabijo]

maybe our great grandchildren would.

And by then, the money would be worth pennies.

 

[nasa1974]

OK OK OK I have been posting as I have been reading instead of reading everything then posting comments.

I still think our money is secure as long as congress keeps their hands out of the pot. But, Braveheart if what you posted earlier is half correct I sure hope some agency somewhere is getting ready to hand out some subpoenas real soon.

May the force be with us.

 

[luv2read]

what a rollercoaster ride. Anyone brave enough to figure this day out, i welcome your comments.

wheeeeeeeeeeeee!
View attachment 4582​

 

[alevin]

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080903/lehman_mufg.html?.v=1

One explanation would be all the different buyout/investment rumors of overseas banks re Lehman that keep blooming and dying immediately the last week or so, including today. that's KD's opinion today anyway.

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

 

[Guest2]

Golf,,,,,,Last Minute Day To Myself ~ :blink:

(Terminator Reference) I'll Be Bock ! :nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

I took off yesterday and chased the little white ball for 9.

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -15.77%.....C=... -14.46%....-02.21% (my figures)
DW.= -11.24%.....S=... -09.86%....
EFA= -24.00%.....I=.... -22.43%...
AGG= -00.13%.....F=... +02.98%...
...........................G=... +02.59%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -03.60%.....C=... -03.55%....-02.97% (my figures)
DW.= -03.78%.....S=... -03.71%....
EFA= -06.24%.....I=.....-05.86%...
AGG=+00.29%.....F=... +00.79%...
...........................G=....+00.04%...

TOO MUCH SUN,,,,,TOO MUCH FUN,,,,,TO MUCH TO ABSORB ! :suspicious:

 

[Guest2]

The enormous swings in the (I) Fund continue. Tuesday added .65% to
the overpayment. Wednesday took .88% away. Today they added .60%
back into overpayment. Weeeeeeeeee ! L2R's "Rollercoaster Bear" picture
is as accurate as it gets. Although all stock funds took a dump today, the
(I) Fund has a Intestinal problem. So much so, that its unmatched by
any poor soul who's drinking water in Mexico! STAY AWAY! It is not a
better buy at this price, it is a tool of past glory which is now -22.43%
down. EVEN IF YOU MISS THE FIRST 5% IN A TURN AROUND ! ITS NOT
THE FUND TO BE IN ! Sorry for yelling, too much sun today !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2138 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.51%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2866 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.61%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3826TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.99%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3745 TSP Cent Overpayment or +3.05%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents
(9/03/08) -0.8790% -0.2772 tsp cents
(9/04/08) +0.6018% -0.3826 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JTH]

Thanks buddy

Wow, I hadn't noticed the huge discrepancy with the F fund. That makes me not want to jump in for fear of getting burned on the way out.

Have you noticed any trends on when they pay it back?

 

[Guest2]

Thanks buddy

Wow, I hadn't noticed the huge discrepancy with the F fund. That makes me not want to jump in for fear of getting burned on the way out.

Have you noticed any trends on when they pay it back?

The AGG vs. the (F) is not like the (I) Fund.
You may see some payback, not nothing as
dramatic as the (I) Fund. I never even looked
at the Bond Fund when it came to the O/D.
But somewhere this year, the (F) Fund got
a Big Overpayment and I'm not convinced
that the AGG is the best symbol to track the
Lehman Bros. Aggregate Bond Fund. But for
daily intraday tracking, there appears to be
no other alternative. Remember, dividends,
fees and alike are probably included in that
3.05%

 

[Guest2]

Seeing the (S) Fund down nearly -3.50% at opening was down right
unacceptable. Seeing it currently down -1.17% has allowed me to
remove the noose off my neck, just long enough to think that the
P&F chart of the DWCPF will hold some very interesting info. :worried:

Will the S&P500 rebound better? I heard last night that the Small
Caps are in deeper trouble!

 

[Guest2]

View attachment 4596