Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

TIME TO SING​

WHO LET THE BEAR OUT !
(SNORT,,,SNORT,,,SNORT)
WHO LET THE BEAR OUT !
(SNORT,,,SNORT,,,SNORT)
WHO LET THE BEAR OUT !
(SNORT,,,SNORT,,,SNORT)
:blink:

BOY THIS SHOULD RAISE THE $VIX QUITE A BIT !​

 

[JTH]

I track the S&P's top 30 stocks by weighted value.

13 Are in the red, so it looks like we are in a battle between the Bears and the Bulls.

[SIZE=-1]AAPL[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Apple Inc[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]166.22[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-3.31[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-1.95%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]ABT[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Abbott Laboratori[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]58.97[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.54[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.68%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]BAC[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Bk Of America Cp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]32.39[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.25[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+4.01%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]C[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Citigroup Inc[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]19.21[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.22[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+1.16%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]CCE[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Coca Cola Entrpr [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]17.65[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.58[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+3.40%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]COP[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Conocophillips[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]79.05[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-3.46[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-4.19%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]CSCO[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Cisco Sys Inc[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]23.82[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.23[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-0.96%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]CVX[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Chevron Corp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]83.91[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-2.41[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-2.79%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]GE[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Gen Electric Co[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]28.74[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.64[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.28%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]GOOG[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Google[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]468.83[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+5.54[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+1.20%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]HPQ[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Hewlett Packard C[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]46.34[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.58[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-1.24%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]IBM[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Intl Business Mac[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]120.80[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.93[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-0.76%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]INTC[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Intel Cp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]22.73[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.14[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-0.61%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]JNJ[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Johnson And Johns[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]72.03[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.60[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.27%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]JPM[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Jp Morgan Chase C[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]38.98[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.49[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+1.27%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]MCD[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Mcdonalds Cp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]63.64[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.64[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.65%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]MRK[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Merck Co Inc[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]35.06[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.61[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-1.71%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]MSFT[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Microsoft Cp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]27.28[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.01[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-0.04%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]ORCL[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Oracle Corp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]21.74[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-0.19[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-0.87%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]PBG[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Pepsi Bottling Gr[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]31.20[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.62[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+5.48%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]PFE[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Pfizer Inc[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]19.29[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.18[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+0.94%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]PG[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Procter Gamble [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]71.00[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.23[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+1.76%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]PM[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Philip Morris Int[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]54.96[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+1.26[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.35%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]QCOM[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Qualcomm Inc[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]51.61[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-1.04[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-1.98%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]SLB[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Schlumberger Ltd[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]90.99[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-3.23[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-3.43%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]T[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]At&t Inc.[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]32.38[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.39[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+1.22%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]VZ[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Verizon Commun[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]35.86[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.74[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.11%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]WFC[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Wells Fargo & Co [/SIZE][SIZE=-1]31.07[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.80[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+2.64%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]WMT[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Wal Mart Stores[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]59.89[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]+0.82[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](+1.39%)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=-1]XOM[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]Exxon Mobil Cp[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]78.16[/SIZE][SIZE=-1]-1.85[/SIZE][SIZE=-1](-2.31%)[/SIZE]

 

[nasa1974]

TIME TO SING​

WHO LET THE BEAR OUT !
(SNORT,,,SNORT,,,SNORT)
WHO LET THE BEAR OUT !
(SNORT,,,SNORT,,,SNORT)
WHO LET THE BEAR OUT !
(SNORT,,,SNORT,,,SNORT)
:blink:​

BOY THIS SHOULD RAISE THE $VIX QUITE A BIT !​

Man!!! What happened. I stepped out of the office for about an hour to check on my contractors and the market takes big fall. Almost 80 points on the S. Glad I do not follow my gut to often. SB, looks like a good move on your part.


May the force be with us.

 

[Guest2]

SB, looks like a good move on your part.

Only one probably, we won't know until tomorrow. I should have stuck
with my original game plan; 50% now, 50% later. Who knows, maybe
I'll get LUCKY come Wednesday ! I should be happy about buying into
the (S) at a lower price, ya know what, I'll take it ! CHARGE !

The EFA is now over -20% from its YTD High Closing Price for 2008. FYI
The EFA keeps hits its 20 day SMA then drops like a hammer !

 

[Guest2]

From 3pm to 4pm, it appears that the smart money started to
buy into the (S) and (C). Maybe thats a good sign for tomorrow.
The DWCPF closed at its 20 day SMA

 

[Guest2]

Yet another day that begins the week with a monster addition to the
debt. This wouldn't be so bad if the day was positive. But it was a
negative day and only limited the loses seen by the EFA. This is one
of several reasons why I'm staying away from the (I) Fund until we
start to see a different trend. Todays move by the Fund Managers is
quite consistant. If they stay really consistant, any follow up good
days are now setup to disappoint until the debt is paid back down.
Good Luck Tomorrow !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2129 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.46%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2780 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.51%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.4584 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.27%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3552 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.91%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08) +0.2044% -0.3291 tsp cents
WEEKLY +0.3435% +0.0730 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(9/01/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY
(9/02/08) +0.6546% -0.4584 tsp cents



THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -12.99%.....C=... -11.69%....+1.00% (my figures)
DW.= -08.43%.....S=... -07.09%....
EFA= -20.27%.....I=.... -18.41%...
AGG= -00.47%.....F=... +02.48%...
...........................G=... +02.57%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -00.41%.....C=... -00.41%....+0.02% (my figures)
DW.= -00.69%.....S=... -00.72%....
EFA= -01.54%.....I=.....-00.89%...
AGG= -00.06%.....F=... +00.30%...
...........................G=....+00.02%...

 

[Guest2]

WITH THE (I) FUND BEING THE FOCUS OF MY DAILY REVIEW, I FOUND THIS ARTICLE INTERESTING
AND WANTED TO SHARE A PORTION OF IT WITH YOU. THE FULL ARTICLE LINK IS POSTED BELOW.

How foreign stocks fit into your portfolio
By Walter Updegrave, Money Magazine senior editor
August 21, 2008 5:27 pm

Given the way the U.S. stock market has been behaving, what are your thoughts of buying foreign stocks versus domestic shares?

If you’re thinking of moving into foreign stocks because they’ll offer shelter at a time when U.S. shares are being hammered, you may end up being disappointed. Academic research has shown that when the U.S. stock market gets slammed, foreign bourses also find themselves reeling. That’s certainly been true lately. Foreign shares as measured by the broad MSCI EFAE Index, are down about 19% from the beginning of the year compared with a 12% decline for the S&P500 Index. And some foreign markets have taken an old-fashioned whupping: witness the drop of just over 50% in the value of Chinese shares in the Shanghai Composite Index.

Similarly, if you’re being drawn to foreign shares because they racked up big gains before their recent setback, you may need to re-calibrate your expectations a bit on that front too. Some of those attractive returns were the result of a slide in the value of the U.S. dollar. American investors who own foreign stocks benefit when the greenback drops and foreign currencies rise since profits in shares denominated in foreign currencies buy more U.S. dollars. With European economies weakening and commodity markets struggling, however, the dollar has been rallying lately. Which means that currency tailwind effect could abate, or even turn into a headwind.

Why invest overseas?
So if foreign stocks may not provide the security of higher ground during a deluge and the dollar’s recent booster effect may be waning, why do I still think it’s a good idea for U.S. investors to have a portion of their portfolios invested abroad?

The answer is that, propelled by growth in their economies, foreign shares can generate strong long-term returns aside from any currency effect. And despite foreign stocks’ tendency also to retreat when U.S. shares drop sharply, foreign equities still offer valuable diversification benefits during those times when the U.S. stock market isn’t operating in bear mode, which, after all, is most of the time.

Analysts measure the extent to which domestic and foreign stocks zig and zag relative to one another by looking at a statistic known as the correlation coefficient. The propensity of domestic and foreign shares to move together can vary for a number of reasons, including trade policies and a general move toward globalization. But over long periods of time correlations are generally loose enough so that adding foreign stocks to an all-USA portfolio can enhance the tradeoff between risk and return (that is, boost your portfolio’s returns without increasing risk or deliver the same return while lowering risk).

http://asktheexpert.blogs.money.cnn.com/2008/08/21/how-foreign-stocks-fit-into-your-portfolio/

 

[Steadygain]

That's interesting.

Foreign shares as measured by the broad MSCI EFAE Index only if:
You are looking at the European Market that coincides with the I Fund.



Here I would say look at other foreign Markets; as the European Market is very tightly linked to the US Markets.


Perhaps the most central KEY WORD - is Long Term Investment which is a "foreign philosophy" to most of our readers. We are largely consumed with taking control and Long Term Investment is a difficult concept.

 

[luv2read]

Yet another day that begins the week with a monster addition to the debt. This wouldn't be so bad if the day was positive. But it was a negative day and only limited the loses seen by the EFA. This is one of several reasons why I'm staying away from the (I) Fund until we start to see a different trend. Todays move by the Fund Managers is quite consistant. If they stay really consistant, any follow up good days are now setup to disappoint until the debt is paid back down.
Good Luck Tomorrow !

lookee here:

Banks remained weak, led by Barclays (BARC.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), which was the top loser in Europe's top-50 index with a loss of 4.5 percent after an RBS downgrade to "sell" from "hold".

RBS said Barclays may need to raise between 4.9 billion pounds and 7.5 billion pounds to bring its capital ratio in line with its peers.

Downgraded despite huge capital investment by sovereign wealth funds; and another huge loss; and another huge capital investment needed.

FRTIB....are you looking out for TSP best interests...or Barclays?

 

[Guest2]

That's interesting. Foreign shares as measured by the broad MSCI EFAE Index only if: You are looking at the European Market that coincides with the I Fund.

Here I would say look at other foreign Markets; as the European Market is very tightly linked to the US Markets.


Perhaps the most central KEY WORD - is Long Term Investment which is a "foreign philosophy" to most of our readers. We are largely consumed with taking control and Long Term Investment is a difficult concept.

In the Full Article, the writer explains a little more about his thought
behind the selction of Countries and ETF's within the Indexes. The rules
concerning our TSP investments have changed. People don't like change.
But I do see a slow and inevitable change from the old philosophy to the
new reality (even in me). Just as the (I) Fund isn't your Fathers (I) Fund
anymore, so to is the TSP with limits. For those of us who truly believe
in the Long Term Benefits of holding onto your positions within the TSP,
(I don't lose until I sell) simply have the time to see those benefits. Many
members are retired or have short term goals based on time. For those
members, Long Term is not reality and the Short Term could mean the
difference between making it or not (in one way or another). Some of the
Short Term'ers have opted to lower their investment amounts to offset
the downside, but too many of us put their portfolios at greater risk. Not
by jumping in and out of the (G) Fund, but by risking their entire nest egg
(I'm guilty) to reap maximum gains. At the risk of greater loses.

If I could spell it right, I'd say the members here are now going through a
"metamorphasis" based on the reality which has been thrusted upon us by
the FRTIB. Not only are we seeking ways to maximize our portfolios, we
are also seeking ways to find comfort within. What is good for one, is not
good for all. We must keep all that in mind when we see the variety of
different philosophies at work here.

I tell Young New Hires that the TSP/IRA's are key to achieving financial
stability for their future. More so, its the amount of money they contribute
which will make the difference. Not when, or the amounts of IFT's they
make. Time heals all short term wounds. Its hard to sock hundreds into
their TSP's when trying to pay the bills and raise a new family. But the
reality of the demise Social Security is looming. They MUST find a way.
They MUST take their 3.9% raise and give up 1.9% to retirement. If not,
the reality of working until you die will become unavoidable. I have only
one thing that really pisses me off. I didn't have the opportunity to know
this between 1976 and 1990. Fourteen years of ignorance! Maybe by
reading this long winded rant, it will help some of the young pups who have
taken advantage of this glorious website and the opportunity which many
of us never had. (wow, It must have been a longer Holiday then I thought)

 

[Guest2]

lookee here, downgraded despite huge capital investment by sovereign wealth funds; and another huge loss; and another huge capital investment needed. FRTIB....are you looking out for TSP best interests...or Barclays?

Makes me wonder if the Overpayment to the (I) Fund will go to the
Deficit side of the O/D Tracker, sooner then later. That would mean
that the (I) Fund would still reflect the MSCI EAFE Index, but to the
underperformance side, as opposed to the outperformance side.

 

[luv2read]

Makes me wonder if the Overpayment to the (I) Fund will go to the
Deficit side of the O/D Tracker, sooner then later. That would mean
that the (I) Fund would still reflect the MSCI EAFE Index, but to the
underperformance side, as opposed to the outperformance side.

I can wait to find out.:worried:

 

[Steadygain]

lookee hereowngraded despite huge capital investment by sovereign wealth funds; and another huge loss; and another huge capital investment needed.

BARCLAYS

FRTIB....are you looking out for TSP best interests...or Barclays?

Luv2read,
It would be rare to find anyone that impresses more than you.

If you're really looking for the culprit it is not Barclays - it is the United States of America and what transpired with the Financial Sector. Many other banks in Europe were hit very hard as well; but none were hit harder than the US Banks. Yet I don't see you going out of your way to attack them (and here we have many Financial Institutions we could target).

The FRTIB had nothing to do with Barclays' huge Financial Hit and obviously they have been significantly damaged. But here I would say "Forget the TSP and the limited IFTs" - as they are very remotely related to the "bomb that exploded". I guess what I'm saying is: "Make sure you're targeting the true source of the underlying condition - and not using something unrelated to vent your personal frustations".

 

[luv2read]

Luv2read,
It would be rare to find anyone that impresses more than you.

If you're really looking for the culprit it is not Barclays - it is the United States of America and what transpired with the Financial Sector. Many other banks in Europe were hit very hard as well; but none were hit harder than the US Banks. Yet I don't see you going out of your way to attack them (and here we have many Financial Institutions we could target).

The FRTIB had nothing to do with Barclays' huge Financial Hit and obviously they have been significantly damaged. But here I would say "Forget the TSP and the limited IFTs" - as they are very remotely related to the "bomb that exploded". I guess what I'm saying is: "Make sure you're targeting the true source of the underlying condition - and not using something unrelated to vent your personal frustations".

For what? Expressing concern about the safety of my retirement?

My post had nothing to do with the IFT limits it has to do with the liquidity pool and the safety of TSP funds since there are NO GUARANTEES against losses by the fund manager. The US banks do not manage our retirement fund so why should I mention them?

 

[Steadygain]

In the Full Article....)

SB, That was very well expressed! Thank you.

Please know however long it appears I'm holding and holding at this point - I would never encourage anyone to strictly "Buy and Hold".

All investments should be reviewed periodically and adjusted accordingly.

 

[Steadygain]

My post had nothing to do with the IFT limits it has to do with the liquidity pool and the safety of TSP funds since there are NO GUARANTEES against losses by the fund manager. The US banks do not manage our retirement fund so why should I mention them?

Well 'Bust My Buttons, why didn't you say so'.


I'm sorry. In that case I probably would have said, "Please keep this quiet, as I don't want people to panic".

Sorry, an honest misunderstanding on my part.

 

[luv2read]

steady please see pm asap.

 

[Guest2]

I'm not interested in the other banks. BGI is contracted to manage the
TSP. The FRTIB plays its role. Both make decisions which directly affect
the TSP. With eyes-wide-open, I want to know everything that Barclays
is doing. The same goes for the Thrift Board. Just becuase the Bomb has
already exploded concerning IFT's, doesn't mean they ran out of bombs
or don't have a bigger bomb waiting in the wings. That includes the FRTIB.
:embarrest:

 

[luv2read]

SB...see pm article please. I find it alarming especially since one of Osprie's funds just failed ...combined with the news about Barclays.