Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

To touch base on the question that JB45 posed. I don't know if my answer
was clear enough, I was Rushing really badly at the time. Because I have
no experience, I can't answer the question with conviction. But I do have
a strong belief that the Deficit/Overpayment cycle is carried on the books
over the coarse of time. In the last 3 years prior to 2008, the (I) Fund
stayed on the "Deficit" side of the O/D Tracker. When the jump into the
Overpayment side occured back in June, it totaly took me by surprise.
Well, not totaly. I did allow for such a occurance, but only on a temporary
basis. This ended up being a long term change in philosophy which I had
not seen before. Then again, I never seen a potential run on the banks
like we saw earlier this year either. Was the Liquidity, Liquidity, Liquidity
issue the reason for the change to the Overpayment Side ? Maybe in part
but that complex world is beyond me in many ways. Add that to my limited
knowledge of Fair Value and you find one confused puppy. Thats why I'll
stick to the true reason behind my tracking the darn thing to begin with;

BY GETTING A STRONGER GRIP ON THE TRENDS WHICH ARE MADE, DUE
TO THE FLUXUATIONS WITHIN THE (I) FUND AND THE DECISIONS MADE
BY THE FUND MANAGERS, I CAN ADD THIS TOOL TO MY ARSONAL IN
HOPES TO MAKE A BETTER DECISION AS TO WHICH FUND MAY SERVE
MY NEEDS AND ACHIEVE MY GOALS. (Boy, was that a run-on sentence, or what!)

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -12.64%.....C=... -11.33%....+0.98% (my figures)
DW.= -07.79%.....S=... -06.42%....
EFA= -19.02%.....I=.... -17.68%...
AGG= -00.42%.....F=... +02.18%...
...........................G=... +02.54%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+01.38%.....C=... +01.62%....+1.67% (my figures)
DW.=+01.95%.....S=... +02.31%....
EFA= -04.22%.....I=..... -04.14%...
AGG=+00.34%.....F=... +00.92%...
...........................G=....+00.33%...

FINAL MONTHLY RESULTS ARE IN AND IT APPEARS THE (S) FUND
TAKES THE PRIZE. AS IT SHOULD BE, THE DWCPF DID THE SAME.
MY FINAL MTD RESULTS WERE MORE THEN ACCEPTABLE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE OTHERS. MY YTD RETURN NEEDS A LITTLE
HELP, BUT IT IS A WORK IN PROGRESS UNTIL DECEMBER 31ST.
IF YOU FOLLOW THE "LMBF" METHOD OF FUND SELECTION, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE (S) HAS IT, HANDS DOWN !

 

[Guest2]

Congratulations !​

CJ - CP - Pogo - Mack - FG​

WELL DONE DURING DIFICULT TIMES!
​

 

[justbizness45]

Asian and European markets are down. Doesn't bode well for the I fund tomorrow.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080901/world_markets.html

 

[Guest2]

Asian and European markets are down. Doesn't bode well for the I fund tomorrow.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080901/world_markets.html

I'm looking forward to seeing the US and European Markets offset Asia.
The US Futures and current OS Market returns look extremely promising.
The stronger dollar vs. the euro isn't helping the (I) Fund all that much.
The EFA chart looks to have plenty of room to the upside. But its the
Fund Managers who ultimately need to do justice to the (I) Fund. And
that my friend, is anyones guess. Instead of looking at the Overpayment
side of the O/D Tracker as a negative, I've started to believe it is now
the norm. At least, until the next reversal comes. That may not occur
for quite some time. Just like the Deficit Side dominated for years. The
European Markets will start to see better economic reports, just as the
US Markets have. They were slow in getting hit, they'll be slow in the
recovery. But a turn around is coming, I can feel it. Maybe a long term
investor will find the current prices attractive and ride the train up to
glory. Of coarse, this is my gut talking and anything is possible ! :blink:

 

[Guest2]

Dow+108.00+0.93%11,668.00

NASDAQ+30.25+1.61%1,905.25

S&P+12.30+0.96%1,294.90


http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

 

[Steadygain]

Dow+108.00+0.93%11,668.00

NASDAQ+30.25+1.61%1,905.25

S&P+12.30+0.96%1,294.90
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

Lower Oil, Stronger Dollar, Election Year...


Don't fall for it!! Stay in G or move to F and let the Markets know you're not going to be fooled by this garbage.

Only the insane really believe the Markets will go up 30 to 40% in the short term (next 4 months) - BUT THEN REALITY WILL SET IN AND THE MARKETS WILL GO TO LOWER LOWS THAN WERE SEEN IN 08.
But it's fun being insane - and I'm thrilled to no end.

 

[Guest2]

Lower Oil, Stronger Dollar, Election Year...


Don't fall for it!! Stay in G or move to F and let the Markets know you're not going to be fooled by this garbage.

Only the insane really believe the Markets will go up 30 to 40% in the short term (next 4 months) - BUT THEN REALITY WILL SET IN AND THE MARKETS WILL GO TO LOWER LOWS THAN WERE SEEN IN 08.
But it's fun being insane - and I'm thrilled to no end.

Steady, just before reading your post, I was pondering if a move to the
(F) Fund would catch a rebound from its -.43% loss. The (S) Fund isn't
taking the lead within this rally. Whats your thoughts about that ?

 

[Guest2]

Funny how things work in the market. The AGG closed at 100.75 on
Friday. Yahoo is showing some strange figures, while the AGG is really
down close to -0.50%

I know the cause is todays opening price for the AGG, but showing
down -0.10% is quite misleading.

 

[nasa1974]

It is just a feeling, but I think what will happen this week is that the big boys are back from vacation and the market is going to see some strong moves up today and tomorrow to suck in the short players and then sell of Thursday or Friday (big). With one hurricane coming ashore this weekend, one TD (possible hurricane) looking at the Keyes again and a wannabee coming up behind, next week will be market tumoil. Would love to jump in and play but I think I will just keep my toes wet and wait this one out. Lets see how the big players start next week. Just my feelings.


May the force be with us.

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, just before reading your post, I was pondering if a move to the (F) Fund would catch a rebound from its -.43% loss. The (S) Fund isn't taking the lead within this rally. Whats your thoughts about that ?

Well - first I would say at best we are only setting the stage.

No RALLY has occured as of this date; but the marked decline has halted - leveled - and slowly gained strength. So at this point it's moved in the right direction for a possible RALLY.

What we need is VOLUME. If the volume really kicks in - with the POSITIVE signs of Lower Oil, Stronger Dollar, and most of all "Election Euphoria" - then a real RALLY would occur and with that S Fund will likely take the lead.

But it doesn't matter to me if C Fund takes the lead - for a little while. Over the past 5 years when "rally mode" has really kicked in then S Fund and I Fund have had the best results. If a stronger dollar can honestly be seen as the basis for lower oil and an emerging bull market then S Fund will be the winner.

 

[Guest2]

Well - first I would say at best we are only setting the stage.

No RALLY has occured as of this date; but the marked decline has halted - leveled - and slowly gained strength. So at this point it's moved in the right direction for a possible RALLY.

What we need is VOLUME. If the volume really kicks in - with the POSITIVE signs of Lower Oil, Stronger Dollar, and most of all "Election Euphoria" - then a real RALLY would occur and with that S Fund will likely take the lead.

But it doesn't matter to me if C Fund takes the lead - for a little while. Over the past 5 years when "rally mode" has really kicked in then S Fund and I Fund have had the best results. If a stronger dollar can honestly be seen as the basis for lower oil and an emerging bull market then S Fund will be the winner.

I almost lost my head and went into the (F) Fund,,,,,,How funny is that !:nuts:

I Went 100% (S) Fund today, but with great difficulty trying to decide
between the (C) and the (S). Should a breakout occur, I'm leaning on
the (S) to lead the way to prosperity. Good Luck to us all !

 

[nsurf9]

SB, anybody. At what point today (tomorrow morning) will the I fund be adjusted for currency changes?

 

[Guest2]

SB, anybody. At what point today (tomorrow morning) will the I fund be adjusted for currency changes?

Sorry I was late in seeing your post. This might not help you too much,
but the (I) Fund is not for me. I see a few members jumping in the (I)
Fund, but again, it hasn't shown any reason to to do so yet, for me !
The charts look inviting, but thats simply not enough !

 

[Guest2]

View attachment 4576

This Ride This Sucker Till The Cows (sideline investors) Come Home ! :nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

I almost lost my head and went into the (F) Fund,,,,,,How funny is that !:nuts:

I Went 100% (S) Fund today, but with great difficulty trying to decide
between the (C) and the (S). Should a breakout occur, I'm leaning on
the (S) to lead the way to prosperity. Good Luck to us all !

GL - my friend.

Corepuncher has a pretty good handle on the week to week stuff and seems fairly convinced the Markets are in for a hard time.

Everyone I know personally (outside of this MB) all feel the Markets are going to take a huge dive; the only division is whether it will come before or after a short term rally. Short term for us is 3 months (not a week or two). Those who side on the short term rally are convinced it will skyrocket so fast that it will go as high as 30% or better (and this is what I'm holding to).

For my own little crowd - we are convinced the underlying fundamentals can not sustain a rally beyond 3 months and that will follow with new lows. I will undoubtedly bail to safety - not when I make a profit - but when I'm convinced the rally has ended.

 

[nasa1974]

My feeling on this from a rookie stand point. Mid-September a strong rally ( big boys start it going then sit back while the small fish make higher gains). Late September big sell off for profits by the big boys (catching everybody by surprise). October will be just like August (getting ready for winter heating season and elections). Early November strong market by both the big boys and small fish (lots of volume). Big push for the elections. Early to Mid December another big drop lasting until February to see what the next president will do to spur the economy (regardless which party wins). Just my take on it. Now to figure out how to use my IFT's wisely.


May the force be with us.

 

[Steadygain]

SB,
Here's the post on the Prison System Reforms

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=174112&postcount=159

In this story - President Bush comes out shorly afterwards and gives his backing (but more the way I'd picture him doing it).

 

[Guest2]

SB,
Here's the post on the Prison System Reforms

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=174112&postcount=159

In this story - President Bush comes out shorly afterwards and gives his backing (but more the way I'd picture him doing it).

Thanks Steady !

 

[Guest2]

My feeling on this from a rookie stand point. Mid-September a strong rally ( big boys start it going then sit back while the small fish make higher gains). Late September big sell off for profits by the big boys (catching everybody by surprise). October will be just like August (getting ready for winter heating season and elections). Early November strong market by both the big boys and small fish (lots of volume). Big push for the elections. Early to Mid December another big drop lasting until February to see what the next president will do to spur the economy (regardless which party wins). Just my take on it. Now to figure out how to use my IFT's wisely.May the force be with us.

Thanks Nasa ! Stop calling yourself a rookie !