Squalebear's Account Talk

[Braveheart]

Nice try, I was thinking it was this week, too. Stupid hurricane, and it would have a haunting name "Gustav". If it changes direction or weakens, the game is afoot. If it wipes out the gulf, prices will go up, up, up....

I think the power of all things holy is not happy right now.

The Oil play will be to do all it can to get it over $125 again. Gustav the name is from Sweden but it has that tough name and the water temp is 88+ so this could go from a 3 to a 4 once it hits open waters in a few hours and then what a 5 -----WTF. This country really can't take any more of this. Time to buy stock in Home Depot and builders down south.

 

[Show-me]

The Oil play will be to do all it can to get it over $125 again. Gustav the name is from Sweden but it has that tough name and the water temp is 88+ so this could go from a 3 to a 4 once it hits open waters in a few hours and then what a 5 -----WTF. This country really can't take any more of this. Time to buy stock in Home Depot and builders down south.

Now you're thinking like a trader. Bravo!!! Thanks for the tip! Don't forget oil services if it tears up infrastructure.

 

[Guest2]

I love all your posts. It just proves how little I know !
I thought Gustav was Russian and Georgia was in the US ! :laugh:

I think that oil could spike to the 120's. The closer Gustov gets
to the Gulf Coast, the higher it will go. Any unpredicted turn
in direction could result in one of the biggest sell-offs we've seen
on a intraday basis. Demand continues to sink around the globe.
I believe that investors see oil (belonging) around $100-$110.
Any thing more is speculation on Gustav and the rising tensions
with Russia. As some have written, if disruption occurs in the
Gulf of Mexico (refinaries and off-shore rigs) all bets are off the
table for some time to come. Maybe up to $145-$150 per.

 

[Guest2]

The O/D Tracker show the some of the debt was paid which drove the
tracker into the "Blue" flip-a-coin area. I haven't a clue where it goes
from here (up or down), but lean on the side of it staying right where
it is for tomarrow (In the "Blue" area). I've decided to do a little more
research concerning the past O/D results and its gonna take alot of
time. But when I get the results, I'll post them with great enthusiasm.
I only wish I had the time to reflect a "Buy" "Hold" "Sell" signal based
on this tracking. Never say never, It might be my next great adventure.


YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2051 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.41%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2744 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.51%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3220 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.61%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3229 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.65%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08)...........................................
(8/28/08)...........................................
(8/29/08)...........................................
WEEKLY............................................

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -12.15%................+0.92% (my figures)
S=... -08.15%................
I=.... -19.25%................
F=... +02.10%................
G=... +02.49%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +00.67%................+1.62% (my figures)
S=... +00.42%................
I =.... -06.08%................
F=... +00.84%................
G=... +00.28%................

 

[Guest2]

Good Economic News Spikes Futures To The Positive Side

 

[Guest2]

Duty Calls Tonight and the vampire in me see's the sun peeking in.
The US Market has currently busted through the 1% level and for
everyone in the risk funds; MAY IT HOLD OR RISE FROM HERE !
Good Luck Everyone, I'll be back with my updates tonight !

 

[Guest2]

The (I) Fund unperforms against the EFA by a whopping -0.56% which
paid off enough debt to hit a monthly low of 0.21 tsp cents "Green". If
I might toot my horn alittle, I've hoped for the best concerning this
fund, but have said over and over, its likely to disappoint. The US market
kicked some EAFE butt today. I'm gonna twist a phrase that I recently
read in another post a couple of days ago. It really works here;
" THIS AIN'T YOUR FATHERS (I) FUND ANYMORE MY FRIENDS " That does
not mean "forever", that just means until it proves otherwise. Now the
US Market will have to deal with Gustav and the possibility of oil jumping
beyond its current levels. Take the money and run comes to mind, but
thats because I'm a proud little chiclett with no time or money to lose.
I'll be catching up on the Fannie-Mae news tonight and what it may hold
for the US market tomarrow. Until then, Good Luck In All Your Decisions !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2094 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.43%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2843 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.55%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2106TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.05%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3245 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.66%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08)...........................................
(8/29/08)...........................................
WEEKLY............................................

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -11.43%................+0.93% (my figures)
S=... -07.07%................
I=.... -18.93%................
F=... +02.23%................
G=... +02.50%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +01.48%................+1.63% (my figures)
S=... +01.60%................
I =.... -05.69%................
F=... +00.97%................
G=... +00.29%................

THREE TRADING DAYS BEFORE FREEDOM AND TWO FOR THE MONTH
OF AUGUST. THE RACE IS TIGHT AND ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN FROM
NOW UNTIL 4PM FRIDAY. WHEN THE 2 IFT LIMITS ARE TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT, I'M HAPPY TO HAVE BEATEN THE (G) AND (F) FUNDS.
HOW DISGUSTING IS THAT ! :blink:

 

[Guest2]

View attachment 4548

Louisiana declares emergency in advance of Gustav
By Wallace Witkowski
Last update: 6:59 p.m. EDT Aug. 27, 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Louisiana is declaring a state of emergency in advance and activating the National Guard in preparation for Tropical Storm Gustav, according to the Associated Press Wednesday. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal gave the order for the preparations, the AP said. While it's too early to chart the storm's course, speculators say the storm could reach the Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane by Labor Day weekend.

 

[Guest2]

I'm starting to prepare a stategy of entering the market for a longer term
then 12-13 days for the coming month (September). I'm feeling kinda good
about the Bullish outlook and hope to find an acceptable entry point early
in the month as I expect some trouble from Gustav. September's goal has
been raised from 1% all the way up to 3%. Should the market turn down
after my intial investment, I'll have some money on the sidelines to buy
more shares when the drop subsides. Heck, I might even buy more on the
way up. We'll just have to wait and see. No (F) Fund and No (I) Fund !
Not yet ! I'm feeling the (C) and the (S) have a better shot at meeting
the goals I've set forth. With that said, this is quite different then what
I'm use to doing. This doesn't mean I've changed my entire philosophy
to Buy & Hold, more like Buy, Buy and Bail. :nuts:

 

[XL-entLady]

I'm starting to prepare a stategy of entering the market for a longer term then 12-13 days for the coming month (September). I'm feeling kinda good about the Bullish outlook ... No (F) Fund and No (I) Fund .... I'm feeling the (C) and the (S) have a better shot at meeting the goals I've set forth. This doesn't mean I've changed my entire philosophy to Buy & Hold, more like Buy, Buy and Bail. :nuts:

SB, my friend, my appreciation for letting us know about your thinking, as we all try different things to try to come to grips with the new IFT rules. Thanks for your openness in always letting us know your opinions on the funds and what you're doing, thanks for letting us know of your new strategy, and thanks in advance for letting us know how it is playing out for you!

Lady

 

[Guest2]

SB, my friend, my appreciation for letting us know about your thinking, as we all try different things to try to come to grips with the new IFT rules. Thanks for your openness in always letting us know your opinions on the funds and what you're doing, thanks for letting us know of your new strategy, and thanks in advance for letting us know how it is playing out for you!Lady

Your Welcome, Your Welcome, Your Welcome
:toungOne catch though, If my results suck, I reserve the right to Lie):toung:​

 

[Steadygain]

I'm starting to prepare a stategy of entering the market for a longer term then 12-13 days for the coming month.

I'd say that's an excellent plan my dear friend and brother. 2 IFTs a month can not fit well with realistic goals - so longer term planning has to dominate our thinking.

I'm feeling kinda good about the Bullish outlook and hope to find an acceptable entry point early in the month as I expect some trouble from Gustav.

It's unfortunate we're moving up as fast as we're going ALREADY. I wouldn't doubt that the Convention has sparked upbeat sentiment along with gas for roughly $3 dollars. So whether it's Gustav or simply a "needed settling" - I think you can count on a lower entry.

September's goal has been raised from 1% all the way up to 3%. Should the market turn down after my intial investment, I'll have some money on the sidelines to buy more shares when the drop subsides.

That reminds me of the way I did it in the past. I called it "the double shotgun". I'd pull one trigger and 50 - 60% went straight in. Then wait awhile and if it dropped pull the other trigger.

Heck, I might even buy more on the way up. We'll just have to wait and see. No (F) Fund and No (I) Fund !

I'm impressed. I really am

I'm feeling the (C) and the (S) have a better shot at meeting the goals I've set forth.

On top of that it's patriotic. You're in essense saying I believe despite all the hard times and the bad news - you've got the backbone to hold up and make a stand.

Positive sentiment is long overdue - and when you really believe in the strength of the machinery which the economy is based on; it's way easier to ignore the down days.

With that said, this is quite different then what I'm use to doing. This doesn't mean I've changed my entire philosophy to Buy & Hold, more like Buy, Buy and Bail. :nuts:

I'd say this is "OUTSTANDING" - you get an A++

 

[Guest2]

On top of that it's patriotic.

Thanks Steady. Out of all your comments, one stood out. Practically
every member here can remember utilizing the (I) Fund as the Hallmark
of Higher Profits. Our non-patriotic decision to invest internationally was
more then justifiable. Just look at the returns we squeezed out of Asia,
Europe and Austriala. As of late, the (I) Fund frustrates being down for
the year at approximately -18% where the (C) and (S) "combinded" are
down about the same. Its been said that "small caps" will lead the way
out of the funk we've endored so far this year. Being down around -7%
YTD, the view of the (S) certainly has merit and appears to becoming
true. The (I) Fund will definately turn around, once the OS Markets
experience the pain we have. It takes time to get across that ocean.
But the time will come. When it does, my patriotic decision will opt
for the highest profit possible. And you my friend, will be showing us
the way to the party ! Conventions are not necessary ! Just good ole
friends and family !

 

[luv2read]

Great day that this was and Party animal that I am, I must bring this to the Happy Bear's thread.

try this one for ch-ch-ch
yeah baby!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=177503&postcount=7

 

[Guest2]

Wow, the (I) Fund actually managed to have a positive day AND gain a
additional +0.07 tsp cents by the fund mangers adding to the debt. Not
by alot, as the O/D Tracker remains in the "Green", but a gain non the
less. Congratulation are definately in order. This gives the Fund Mgrs.
more room to do the same thing tomarrow, add to the debt. In turn that
could result in greater gains (like today) or lesser losses. No crystal ball
here and we have alot to be thankful for as the month of August comes
to an end. Here's hoping we close it out with a bang.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2152 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.45%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2940 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.57%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2877 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.41%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3112 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.55%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents
(8/26/08) -0.4230% -0.3220 tsp cents
(8/27/08) -0.5610% -0.2106 tsp cents
(8/28/08) +0.3609% -0.2877 tsp cents
(8/29/08)...........................................
WEEKLY............................................

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Great day that this was and Party animal that I am, I must bring this to the Happy Bear's thread.

Back in the 80's Rod's poofy crop looked quite familar to me as my vent
brush and blow dryer worked overtime. Of coarse, that was during my
rebellious stage and I actually had hair to work with. Now, its the military
cut (crew cut) and only takes micro-seconds to achieve. :nuts:

 

[JTH]

Yep that was some straight up 80s.

I even got the bear's dancing in sync with the video. The 80s nostasia makes me want to dust off my old boom box, add 16 D Cell batteries, put on some ACDC, and go walking down the street with no purpose in mind.

 

[Guest2]

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -10.10%................+0.95% (my figures)
S=... -05.55%................
I=.... -17.60%................
F=... +02.21%................
G=... +02.51%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +02.99%................+1.64% (my figures)
S=... +03.24%................
I =.... -04.04%................
F=... +00.95%................
G=... +00.30%................

WELL LOOK AT THAT, MY GENIUS APPEARS TO HAVE GONE STRAIGHT
DOWN THE TOILET. THE (s) FUND IS NOW DOUBLE MY MTD GAINS....
I CAN STILL SMILE THOUGH, NOT ONLY DID I SURPASS MY MONTHLY
GOAL, MY FRIENDS KICKED SOME TSP BOOTY THRU STRENGTH AND
FOCUS. GREAT FOR THEM AND GREAT FOR ME ! WATCH OUT IN SEPT.
THOUGH, I'VE SET MY GOALS HIGHER AND I'M COMING AFTER YA'S.