Squalebear's Account Talk

Looks like they took back some F today.
AGG +.02%.............F- Fund -.27%

Yes they did JTH. They took it from Blue yesterday to Green today.
You know what I mean. I find the YTD Overpayment %'s, that I posted
below for all TSP Funds, quite interesting and pretty consistent. With the
acception of the (F) Fund being at a whopping 2.43%. I wonder how that
will play out come December 31, 2008. Does anyone think that the (F) will
outperform the AGG by that much for the year ? For the last 5 years, the
(F) Fund has averaged a +0.03% YTD difference when comparing it to the
Lehman Bros. Aggregate Bond Index. It looks like all TSP Funds are being
used by Barclays (BGI) in quite the same manner. But the (F) to a greater
extent. Don't ask me why the Bond Fund, maybe its a hedge of somekind.
:confused:
 
Interesting stuff, squalebear. I know that the funds are not exact replicas of the index, but over 2% is a big difference. I read somewhere that each of the funds is a combination of shares and futures in an attempt to closely track each index. So, we know that futures are usually on margin. This year having all the crazy divergences with interest rates and bonds might have somehow affected the margin used for the F Fund shares.
 
Interesting stuff, squalebear. I know that the funds are not exact replicas of the index, but over 2% is a big difference. I read somewhere that each of the funds is a combination of shares and futures in an attempt to closely track each index. So, we know that futures are usually on margin. This year having all the crazy divergences with interest rates and bonds might have somehow affected the margin used for the F Fund shares.

Wow Fab, divergences and margins are beyond my rhelm. But all the TSP
Funds share a unique goal; "to closely reflect the YTD results within each
of their assigned Indexes". That being said, the (F) Fund has four months
to set things right. But by how much ? I'm going back to the TSP Monthly
Return area of the TSP website to see. The only reason it is of any concern
is because its an Overpayment to the fund. If they're required to pay back
,,,,say,,,, 1.25%,,,,,thats going to leave the (F) Fund looking like the (I)
Fund in its current state. (Disappointing). :confused:
 
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2082 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.41%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2813 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.52%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2561 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.27%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.2929 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.42%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.9757%+0.1517 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents :)
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Its quite amazing that the Fund Managers can maintane 4 straight
"Green" days in a row (when they want to). The (I) Fund gave back
-0.55% or -0.11 TSP Cents for the week. I don't know if this is a trend,
however, the weekly TSP Cent result shows a Plus/Minus/Plus/Minus
which could represent a Plus for next week. Being in the "Green" and
having a Plus for next week could result in a (I) Fund "Outperformance"
of the EFA. That doesn't mean a Lock for a good week ! That simply
means the (I) Fund might Lose Less or Gain More then the EFA. For
the week, all Funds (except for the G and F) showed a loss from
their friday closing prices, but anyone who jumped in on Wednesday
should feel GREAT for having such good timing as they ended this
week with the best possible gains. Even in the (I) Fund !

I keep getting free updates from that pay site concerning their EFA
analysis. For the last couple of days the EFA rated a -100 which is their
worst rating. +100 being their Best rating. Today the EFA gained some
ground and is now rated at -75. I'll let you know if I keep getting them.

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -10.72%................+0.88% (my figures)
S=... -06.73%................
I=.... -18.65%................
F=... +01.67%................
G=... +02.45%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +02.26%................+1.57% (my figures)
S=... +01.94%................
I =.... -05.34%................
F=... +00.42%................
G=... +00.24%................
 
As mentioned within my previous update, an increase in the debt was
expected and was delivered. The (I) Fund "Outperformed" the EFA
by more then 0.75%. Unfortunately, it all came on a down day and
the (I) Fund can't seem to get out of its own way. Now the debt is
within the "High" level (Red) which means disappointment is likely
until we see "Green" again. "Black" would be even better. My gut is
telling me that the debt could nudge up another .06 tsp cents and
then fall back to the green in a day or two. But we've seen the
debt hold in the "red" for days on end. Still, the (I) Fund is not my
fund of choice, if I were to jump into stock funds. I expect the US
Market to outperform the International Fund with the (S) Fund taking
the lead on any reversal of the current downward trend. Good Luck !

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2041 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.41%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2678 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.48%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.4063 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.03%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3003 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.47%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents
(8/22/08) +0.0729% -0.2561 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5591% -0.1154 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/25/08) +0.7622% -0.4063 tsp cents :mad:
(8/26/08)...........................................
(8/27/08)...........................................
(8/28/08)...........................................
(8/29/08)...........................................
WEEKLY............................................

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher) :mad:
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
WITH 5 TRADING DAYS LEFT BEFORE A NEW BREATH OF LIFE IS GIVEN TO
MY I.F.T. CAPABILITIES, I TAKE GREAT PLEASURE IN LOOKING LIKE A REAL
GENIUS (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR ONE DAY). THANKS FOR ALLOWING ME TO
BLOW MY OWN HORN. (JUST FOR TODAY). ;)

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -12.47%................+0.91% (my figures)
S=... -08.55%................
I=.... -19.31%................
F=... +02.03%................
G=... +02.48%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +00.10%................+1.61% (my figures)
S=... -00.32%................
I =.... -06.65%................
F=... +00.28%................
G=... +00.27%................
 
A Thought Or Two Concerning TSP Strategies;

One will quickly find a variety of different strategies being played out
within this marvelous website. Some would even call them philosophies.
But what ever you call them, each have very unique difference. Some of
those differences can be the difference between success and failure. All
in all, its your individual circumstances which must be defined before
making the decision to follow a concept, philosophy or strategy. :)

What sense does it make to buy and hold if your retiring in 12 months ?
Whats the best Long Term Strategy with having 25 years ahead of you ?
What are your goals ? What is your risk tolerance ? Can you afford to
absorb a 15% loss, knowing that you'll have enough time to recover the
loss and benefit over time ? Do Charts give you the edge ? Do the various
Technical Indictators tell you the whole story ? Do pay-services benefit
you enough to justify the cost ? :confused:

So many individual factors are vital before making such a decision. New
members should never follow the leader unless they've strongly considered
all the factors that come into play. Once that has happend, an informed
decision can be made. I became a member not knowing this. At least, not
thinking about it. I've come to realize that; what works for one, may not
work for all or work for me. Please keep this in mind when you ultimately
decide to lean towards a particular strategy or game plan. If you do,
there will be fewer surprises and maybe,,,if your lucky,,,you'll be more
right then wrong. And that my friends is everyones goal, no matter who
you are or what strategy you follow. ;)
 
I see a major drop of another 300 points + through Friday if so either way I will make my 2nd IFT to the C Fund 50% and the S Fund 50% Friday.

John Mc Cain will make his VP pick Friday and it may just be Ms. Ebay
 
I see a major drop of another 300 points + through Friday if so either way I will make my 2nd IFT to the C Fund 50% and the S Fund 50% Friday.

John Mc Cain will make his VP pick Friday and it may just be Ms. Ebay

I don't know if another 300 point drop is in the cards, but the opportunity
to catch some $cha-ching$ might be at hand. Good Luck my friend. I'll be
waiting for my release from "Bitter Bondage" until 9/1/08. It would take
Moses to change what the FRTIB has done to us. "Let My People Go" ! :toung:
 
Quick Market note, the EFA appears to be outperforming the SPX and the
DWCPF by approximately +0.60%. Don't get too excited ! Unless the Fund
Managers decide to keep the debt where it is or add a additional .06 cents
to the (I) Fund. Its nothing more then a mirage. JMHO :confused:
 
I'll be curious to see what happens with the markets when the kids go back to school next week and all those rich folks get back from their vacation. Perhaps we'll finally break away from this sideways trading and this market will pick a direction.
 
I don't know if another 300 point drop is in the cards, but the opportunity
to catch some $cha-ching$ might be at hand. Good Luck my friend. I'll be
waiting for my release from "Bitter Bondage" until 9/1/08. It would take
Moses to change what the FRTIB has done to us. "Let My People Go" ! :toung:

THX same to you. I think Oil is going to spike and down it goes. The volume is so low right now and throw in a little fear with those who are trading seeing their money wasting away and it will be a sell off just in time for the big boys to jump right in. If I am right by the close on friday
C Fund - $14.05 .....S Fund - $17.30.....I Fund - $19.25.... Those are my estimates and based upon sell sell sell.
 
THX same to you. I think Oil is going to spike and down it goes. The volume is so low right now and throw in a little fear with those who are trading seeing their money wasting away and it will be a sell off just in time for the big boys to jump right in. If I am right by the close on friday
C Fund - $14.05 .....S Fund - $17.30.....I Fund - $19.25.... Those are my estimates and based upon sell sell sell.

Nice try, I was thinking it was this week, too. Stupid hurricane, and it would have a haunting name "Gustav". If it changes direction or weakens, the game is afoot. If it wipes out the gulf, prices will go up, up, up....

I think the power of all things holy is not happy right now.:cool:
 
The intensity forecast for Gustav
As long as Gustav is over water, it will intensify. Gustav is currently under moderate wind shear (15 knots) . This shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range (0-15 knots) for the remainder of the week. Gustav is over the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic. Given these two factors, intensification is likely whenever the storm is over water, at least 50 miles from land. Expect the high mountains of Hispaniola to take a toll on Gustav... Expect at least a 25 mph decrease in Gustav's winds by Wednesday, after it encounters Haiti. Further weakening is likely if the storm passes close to or over Cuba. By Wednesday, Gustav will be underneath an upper-level anticyclone. These upper atmosphere high pressure systems can greatly intensify a tropical storm, since the clockwise flow of air at the top of the storm acts to efficiently vent away air pulled aloft by the storm's heavy thunderstorms. With high oceanic heat content also present in the waters off western Cuba, the potential for rapid intensification exists should the center stay more than 50 miles from the Cuban coast. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, Gustav is likely to intensify into a major Category 3 or higher storm. I give a 60% chance that Gustav will cause significant disruption to the oil and gas industry in the Gulf.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1042&tstamp=200808
 
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