Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I'm gonna use the below information & needed to post it somewhere.
These are the result of the O/D Tracker since 5/12/08. The number
may be confusing at face value because of the 6/25/08 reversal from
the Deficit to the Overpayment side. I've also adjusted the tracker on
numerous occassions during this time period. Anyway, maybe somene
can find the accumulative data useful. Take note of how controlled
the Deficit Side was prior to (the dotted line) June 24th, 2008. Then
see the differences after the reversal. Interesting !

(5/12/08) +.258% -0.05 tsp cents
(5/13/08) - .324% -0.13 tsp cents
(5/14/08) +.292% -0.06 tsp cents
(5/15/08) - .079% -0.08 tsp cents
(5/16/08) - .099% -0.10 tsp cents
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents
(5/26/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents
(5/28/08) + .515% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/29/08) - .279% -0.14 tsp cents
(5/30/08) + .022% -0.14 tsp cents
(6/02/08) +.710% +0.03 tsp cents
(6/03/08) - .624% -0.12 tsp cents
(6/04/08) + .160% -0.08 tsp cents
(6/05/08) + .030% -0.07 tsp cents
(6/06/08) + .215% -0.02 tsp cents
(6/09/08) - .420% -0.12 tsp cents
(6/10/08) + .152% -0.08 tsp cents
(6/11/08) - .121% -0.11 tsp cents
(6/12/08) + .126% -0.08 tsp cents
(6/13/08) - .121% -0.11 tsp cents
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents
(6/19/08) - .947% +0.27 tsp cents
(6/20/08) + .587% +0.13 tsp cents
(6/23/08) - .166% +0.17 tsp cents
(6/24/08) + .543% +0.05 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.38 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.42 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.46 tsp cents
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents

 

[Guest2]

(5/12/08) -.258% +0.050 tsp cents
(5/13/08) +.324% +0.130 tsp cents
(5/14/08) -.292% +0.060 tsp cents *
(5/15/08) +.079% +0.080 tsp cents
(5/16/08) +.099% +0.100 tsp cents
(5/19/08) -.408%- 00.000 tsp cents *
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.020 tsp cents
(5/21/08) +.214% +0.040 tsp cents
(5/22/08) +.125% +0.070 tsp cents
(5/23/08) +.233% +0.010 tsp cents
(5/26/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(5/27/08) +.757% +0.190 tsp cents
(5/28/08) -.515% +0.070 tsp cents *
(5/29/08) +.279%+0.140 tsp cents
(5/30/08) -.022% +0.140 tsp cents
(6/02/08) -.710% +0.030 tsp cents *
(6/03/08) +.624%+0.120 tsp cents
(6/04/08) -.160% +0.080 tsp cents *
(6/05/08) -.030% +0.070 tsp cents *
(6/06/08) -.215% +0.020 tsp cents *
(6/09/08) +.420%+0.120 tsp cents
(6/10/08) -.152% +0.080 tsp cents *
(6/11/08) +.121%+0.110 tsp cents
(6/12/08) -.126% +0.080 tsp cents *
(6/13/08) +.121%+0.110 tsp cents
(6/16/08) +.203%+0.160 tsp cents
(6/17/08) -.355% +0.070 tsp cents *
(6/18/08) -.081% +0.060 tsp cents *
(6/19/08) +.947%+0.270 tsp cents
(6/20/08) -.587% +0.130 tsp cents *
(6/23/08) +.166% +0.170 tsp cents
(6/24/08) -.543% +0.050 tsp cents * DEFICIT (THEY OWED US)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(6/25/08) +1.9380% -0.3800 tsp cents OVERPAYMENT (WE OWED THEM)
(6/26/08) +0.2140% -0.4200 tsp cents
(6/27/08) +0.1470% -0.4600 tsp cents
(6/30/08) -0.1100% -0.4354 tsp cents *
(7/01/08) -0.3600% -0.3083 tsp cents *
(7/02/08) +0.1500% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.0400% -0.3332 tsp cents *
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
(7/07/08) +0.8020% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08) 1.14090% -0.2585 tsp cents *
(7/09/08) +0.7940% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.7860% -0.2592 tsp cents *
(7/11/08) +0.4570% -0.3527 tsp cents
(7/14/08) +0.3970% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) -0.5080% -0.3229 tsp cents *
(7/16/08) -0.3206% -0.2605 tsp cents *
(7/17/08) -0.2940% -0.2013 tsp cents *
(7/18/08) -0.2422% -0.1504 tsp cents *
(7/21/08) +0.7334% -0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174% -0.1553 tsp cents *
(7/23/08) +0.5982% -0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519% -0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288% -0.2868 tsp cents *
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents *
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) -0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents *
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents *
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents *
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents *
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents *
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents *
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents *
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents *

 

[luv2read]

what would be interesting is if the deficit started 1/1/08 and overpayment goes thru 12/31/08. Even split timewise - but I bet it doesn't work out dollarwise.

 

[Guest2]

what would be interesting is if the deficit started 1/1/08 and overpayment goes thru 12/31/08. Even split timewise - but I bet it doesn't work out dollarwise.

The event which occured on June 25th, 2008 (+1.938%) was such
a move, that I had never seen anything like it before. At least, not
since I started tracking the differences between the EFA and the
(I) Fund. Thats over a three year period.

When comparing the before and after, its easy to see that the 'blue"
Deficits rarely went higher then the teens with one exception. (+.27)
It was consistent and it was easy to determine that the Fund Mgr's
goals were to keep the Deficit within the single digit range. ie... (+.05)

After the reversal into the Overpayment area "red" the goal appeared
to change from single digits to the teens and possibly the twenty cent
range. The Overpayment has gone as high as (-.5058) and has only hit
the teens twice. In earlier posts, I called this the "New Reality" once it
was confirmed that the reversal wasn't going to be temporary.

The question I keep asking myself is; "with all the liquidity issues facing
BGI (including writedowns) why would BGI build up its return structure
with so much extra money"? "Is this just a play on numbers so that after
they've written off everything, they can slowly pull the overpayment out
for profit (when things go back to normal) ? Sounds like a conspiracy type
theory, however, these companies use some very questionable methods
to determine worth. ie...."Mark to Market". I don't trust BGI to ever make
full disclosure of their assets and I would love to hear why the massive
reversal in the O/D Tracker was found to be necessary. :worried:

 

[Guest2]

Saudi Arabia's new gold mine

Forget oil. Prospectors are looking to strike it rich off of gold - the shiny kind

http://money.cnn.com/2008/08/11/new...ning.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2008081708


Saudi Arabia's answer to the possibilites of running out of oil (just guessing).

 

[Braveheart]

The event which occured on June 25th, 2008 (+1.938%) was such
a move, that I had never seen anything like it before. At least, not
since I started tracking the differences between the EFA and the
(I) Fund. Thats over a three year period.

When comparing the before and after, its easy to see that the 'blue"
Deficits rarely went higher then the teens with one exception. (+.27)
It was consistent and it was easy to determine that the Fund Mgr's
goals were to keep the Deficit within the single digit range. ie... (+.05)

After the reversal into the Overpayment area "red" the goal appeared
to change from single digits to the teens and possibly the twenty cent
range. The Overpayment has gone as high as (-.5058) and has only hit
the teens twice. In earlier posts, I called this the "New Reality" once it
was confirmed that the reversal wasn't going to be temporary.

The question I keep asking myself is; "with all the liquidity issues facing
BGI (including writedowns) why would BGI build up its return structure
with so much extra money"? "Is this just a play on numbers so that after
they've written off everything, they can slowly pull the overpayment out
for profit (when things go back to normal) ? Sounds like a conspiracy type
theory, however, these companies use some very questionable methods
to determine worth. ie...."Mark to Market". I don't trust BGI to ever make
full disclosure of their assets and I would love to hear why the massive
reversal in the O/D Tracker was found to be necessary. :worried:

Did some research and what was so important about June 25 2008-BRACLAYS SEEKING NEW FUNDS ON BAD LOANS ALL RED SINCE THEN FOR THE I FUND !!!


Barclays to raise $8.9 billion, mostly from overseas
By David Jolly

Wednesday, June 25, 2008
PARIS: Barclays, the venerable British bank, on Wednesday joined its peers, Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS, in seeking new funds after it wrote down £1.7 billion in bad loans this year.
The bank said it would raise £4.5 billion, or about $8.9 billion, through the issue of new shares. It said in a statement that it would raise the new capital by selling new shares to investors including the Qatar Investment Authority, Challenger and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, as well as China Development Bank and Temasek Holdings, the Singapore government fund.
Existing shareholders will also be allowed to buy the shares, it said.
Barclays is the latest global bank to go hat in hand to investors to make up its losses since the global credit crisis began last year with the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgage market. Banks have announced losses totaling nearly $400 billion, and the International Monetary Fund has estimated that the total figure could reach nearly $1 trillion. Financial institutions have raised about $300 billion over that time.
The news had been expected for some time, and Barclays shares rose 10.75 pence, or 3.5 percent, to 321.5 pence in early London trading.
Barclays, which was established more than 300 years ago, said that the share issue would enable it to raise its tier-one capital ratio above its 7.25 percent target. It estimated that, after taking the share issue into account, its "pro forma," tier-one capital ratio would have been 8.8 percent on Dec. 31, according to the Basel II formula. The equity tier-one ratio would have been 6.3 percent, above its target of 5.25 percent, it said.
John Varley, the Barclays chief executive, said in a conference call that the new funds would strengthen the bank's capital base and give it resources to pursue growth. He said about half the funds would used to raise the bank's capital position, while the remainder would go to funding new growth.
He also said Barclays business remained strong in May, and said the bank's dividend policy remained unchanged.
Barclays said it would raise £4.0 billion by selling 1.4 billion new shares at 282 pence each, a discount of 9.3 percent to the Tuesday closing price.
The Qatar Investment Authority and Challenger, a company representing the Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, the chairman of Qatar Holding, and his family, have agreed to invest up to £1.76 billion and £533 million, respectively.
Existing shareholders are entitled to buy three shares for every 14 shares they hold.
It said Sumitomo Mitsui would buy the remaining £500 million, taking 169 million new shares at 296 pence each, a a discount of 4.7 percent to its closing price Tuesday.
China Development Bank has agreed to invest up to £136 million, while Temasek has agreed to invest up to £200 million. Their participation ensure that they will remain among the bank's biggest shareholders, it said.

 

[Guest2]

Did some research and what was so important about June 25 2008-BRACLAYS SEEKING NEW FUNDS ON BAD LOANS ALL RED SINCE THEN FOR THE I FUND !!!


Barclays to raise $8.9 billion, mostly from overseas
By David Jolly

Wednesday, June 25, 2008
PARIS: Barclays, the venerable British bank, on Wednesday joined its peers, Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS, in seeking new funds after it wrote down £1.7 billion in bad loans this year.

The bank said it would raise £4.5 billion, or about $8.9 billion, through the issue of new shares. It said in a statement that it would raise the new capital by selling new shares to investors including the Qatar Investment Authority, Challenger and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking, as well as China Development Bank and Temasek Holdings, the Singapore government fund.
Existing shareholders will also be allowed to buy the shares, it said.
Barclays is the latest global bank to go hat in hand to investors to make up its losses since the global credit crisis began last year with the collapse of U.S. subprime mortgage market. Banks have announced losses totaling nearly $400 billion, and the International Monetary Fund has estimated that the total figure could reach nearly $1 trillion. Financial institutions have raised about $300 billion over that time.
The news had been expected for some time, and Barclays shares rose 10.75 pence, or 3.5 percent, to 321.5 pence in early London trading.
Barclays, which was established more than 300 years ago, said that the share issue would enable it to raise its tier-one capital ratio above its 7.25 percent target. It estimated that, after taking the share issue into account, its "pro forma," tier-one capital ratio would have been 8.8 percent on Dec. 31, according to the Basel II formula. The equity tier-one ratio would have been 6.3 percent, above its target of 5.25 percent, it said.

John Varley, the Barclays chief executive, said in a conference call that the new funds would strengthen the bank's capital base and give it resources to pursue growth. He said about half the funds would used to raise the bank's capital position, while the remainder would go to funding new growth. He also said Barclays business remained strong in May, and said the bank's dividend policy remained unchanged.

Barclays said it would raise £4.0 billion by selling 1.4 billion new shares at 282 pence each, a discount of 9.3 percent to the Tuesday closing price.
The Qatar Investment Authority and Challenger, a company representing the Sheikh Hamad Bin Jassim Bin Jabr Al-Thani, the chairman of Qatar Holding, and his family, have agreed to invest up to £1.76 billion and £533 million, respectively.
Existing shareholders are entitled to buy three shares for every 14 shares they hold.
It said Sumitomo Mitsui would buy the remaining £500 million, taking 169 million new shares at 296 pence each, a a discount of 4.7 percent to its closing price Tuesday.

China Development Bank has agreed to invest up to £136 million, while Temasek has agreed to invest up to £200 million. Their participation ensure that they will remain among the bank's biggest shareholders, it said.

Somethings wrong in Denmark ! Worse yet, somethings wrong in England !
Thanks so much for the article Braveheart !

 

[luv2read]

Guess that guaranteed influx of payroll contributions every 2 weeks wasn't enough....

 

[Guest2]

Guess that guaranteed influx of payroll contributions every 2 weeks wasn't enough....

It's the story behind the story which interests me ! Isn't that always the way ! :suspicious:

 

[Guest2]

This is a analysis of the EFA that I got moments ago, via email from the following website; http://club.ino.com:80/join/

iShares MSCI EAFE IDXETF (EFA)Strong Downtrend Smart Scan Chart Analysis continues negative longer term. Look for this market to remain weak. Strong Downtrend with money management stops. A triangle indicates the presence of a very strong trend that is being driven by strong forces and insiders. Based on a pre-defined weighted trend formula for chart analysis, EFA scored -90 on a scale from;
-100 (strong downtrend) to +100 (strong uptrend):

(+10Last Hour Close Above 5 Hour Moving Average) (-15New 3 Day Low on Friday) (-20Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average) (-25New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 16th) (-30New 3 Month Low in August

-90Total Score)

 

[nsurf9]

Good info on the EAFE.

 

[Guest2]

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.9757%+0.1517 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08)...........................................
(8/20/08)...........................................
(8/21/08)...........................................
(8/22/08)...........................................
WEEKLY..+0.0000% -0.0000 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
c=... -11.69%................+1.02%
s=... -06.90%................
i=.... -18.38%................
f=... +01.72%................
g=... +02.40%................

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
c=... +01.16%................+1.53%
s=... +01.74%................
i=.... -05.02%................
f=... +00.47%................
g=... +00.19%................

 

[Guest2]

Its been speculated by other members that the technicals reflect a good
price within the (I) Fund. I've been preaching that the (I) Fund was the
last place to be at this time. My analysis hasn't changed. I wanted to
know what "other pay services" had to say to about the EFA. That's why
I posted an email analysis I received today. Just to confirm that my gut
feeling was shared by someone who gets paid for their analysis. I really
liked the one phrase "very strong trend that is being driven by strong
forces and insiders". Will the (I) Fund receive gains anytime soon. The
answer is "Yes" but disapointing gains. Any major move up will allow the
Fund Managers to payoff some debt within the O/D Tracker. In contrast,
the gains received in the (C) or (S) will closely reflect the SPX & DWCPF.
I don't know if the reversal in June will be reversed again, before the end
of the year. We can only hope that when and if the reversal come, that
the debt is in the teens or single (TSP Cent) digits. The pain of the pay
off would hardly be noticed. Again, we can only hope. The O/D Tracker
stayed in the "Blue" flip-a-coin area but increased the debt slightly. Take
note that multiple "Blue" readings have been trending towards the "Red".
When all is said and done, Gravity and the will of the BGI will ultimately
leave the (I) Fund to disappoint. Like I've recently posted, I feel the (I)
is NOT where I want my money until something significant changes within
Europe, Asia, the Exchange Rate and the Credit Crisis.

Todays Market results have left me feeling better about my decision to
bail out of the Risk Funds. As of now, the (S) Fund is the only fund that
has better MTD returns. On a YTD basis, I hate being behind the (G) and
(F) but that could change in a single day. A also get a little joy out of
the fact that I'm kicking the crap out of the rest. In a Bear Market, one
must look a little harder to find reasons to smile. Of coarse, we're a long
way off from September 1st and anything could happen.

 

[JTH]

Good calls on the ol I Fundless there SqualeBear

You've been warning for awhile now, and I feel bad for anyone who tries to pick this bottomless pit...

Yea I have 15% in I and it ain't doing me any favors

I'll be dumping that loser pretty soon. There really isn't much that's appealing in the markets right now.

 

[Guest2]

Good calls on the ol I Fundless there SqualeBear

You've been warning for awhile now, and I feel bad for anyone who tries to pick this bottomless pit...

Yea I have 15% in I and it ain't doing me any favors

I'll be dumping that loser pretty soon. There really isn't much that's appealing in the markets right now.

The opportunities the (I) Fund presented in the past are hard to let go of.
Just as hard as letting go of the Bull and feeding the Bear honey. Hey, you
might see a day to recover some of those hits by adding to your position
as the (I) goes down, but those days are LONG GONE. We both know who
is responsible for that. The Biggest Group of Idiots that would rather you
be down -18.38% YTD by limiting your options through IFT's and extending
your career beyond what it could have been ! Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !

 

[luv2read]

BGI manages ALL of the TSP funds, not just the I fund. Amazing how they've decided to "adjust" that one fund to compensate for their bottom line. Just as they blamed I Fund IFT's for their problems (screwups) last year...that caused the new IFT rule.

 

[Guest2]

BGI manages ALL of the TSP funds, not just the I fund. Amazing how they've decided to "adjust" that one fund to compensate for their bottom line. Just as they blamed I Fund IFT's for their problems (screwups) last year...that caused the new IFT rule.

My my, we're up late aren't we !

Here's a little tidbit for ya. The four (4) TSP Risk Funds
are showing an Overpayment in each and everyone of
them. They used all the funds. Let my show you;

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2012 TSP Cent Overpayment
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2805 TSP Cent Overpayment
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.3882 TSP Cent Overpayment
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.2981 TSP Cent Overpayment

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

When Buy-and-Hold Investors Should Sell
By Terry Savage; Expert on Personal Finance
Thestreet.com 08/17/08 - 11:44 AM EDT

Figuring out when to sell stock is the most difficult thing for a buy-and-hold investor, but a new service aims to provide some guidance on that front. It's so much easier to think about buying stocks than selling them, because buying requires only a basic optimism that future growth will create wealth. Who wants to think about selling -- a decision that is likely far down the road? Traders, on the other hand, are always thinking about when "enough is enough." They're willing to lock in a profit without remorse, even if the stock goes higher; they're willing to take a loss quickly, without "hoping" that the stock will rebound. Successful traders have a unique characteristic that allows them to conquer emotions such as hope and dismay, greed and fear: self-discipline. It's the defining force that winnows out the successful traders from the losers. And it's in short supply among investors, who tend to panic at market extremes. But there might be some help for mom-and-pop investors who want to employ the same type of market discipline as the professionals.

Stop-Loss Advice
A new service called SmartStops.net has been created to give ordinary investors a dose of automatic self-discipline, advising them in advance when to sell a stock or exchange-traded fund that they own. It's done through a tool few investors use -- the "stop-loss" order. A "stop-loss" order is a sell order, placed on your broker's books, telling them to sell "at the market" when the stock falls to a specific price. It's designed to protect profits from evaporating when a stock declines. And because it can be set for one day, or an "open" order -- sitting and waiting in case the stock falls to a certain level -- you don't have to be watching prices all the time. Almost every broker will accept a stop-loss order on a stock you own. But what sell price should you specify? Is it just a matter of percentages -- so that if a stock declines, perhaps 10%, from its current price you should sell? Does it depend on past levels where chartists find "support" in past performance? Is it a matter of volatility, in both the stock and the market? And, if so, do these factors change on a daily basis?

Exit Strategy
SmartStop.net CEO Brent Collins and Chuck LeBeau, the company's director of analytics, believe the formula includes all of those ingredients, and many more. They've created a daily warning service telling traders and investors where to set their "stop-loss" orders for the following day. LeBeau, a long time market technician, says their secret algorithm starts with the assumption that market has three directions -- up, down and sideways -- so the formula changes depending on the trend. But he says it's not just conventional market "charting" that sets the recommended stop-loss points. "It's normal for stocks to change directions, but if they go down an abnormal amount in a day or two -- based on that stock's history which defines its 'normal' price action -- it's a statistical indicator that the stock is likely to go down further."

Avoiding Losses SmartStocks.net monitors nearly 5,000 listed stocks and ETFs that trade at more than $5 per share and average at least 40,000 shares in daily trading volume. After the close, it sends subscribers an email, giving both short-term (if the selling time horizon less than six months) and longer-term stop points for the securities registered in their portfolio, so they can place their orders. Then subscribers get an email alert when the stop-points are reached, so if they haven't already placed an open stop-loss order they can call their brokers to sell.

AS TSP INVESTORS, WE DO NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF STOP-LOSS ORDERS. WE HAVE A FEW OPTIONS:
1) DON'T GO INTO RISKY FUNDS AT ALL (STAY IN THE "G") * Important When The Market Is Plumetting.
2) MOVE TO LESS RISKIER FUNDS ONCE WE'RE ALREADY IN. (IFT TO A DIFFERENT FUND) *Limited Except To The "G"
3) REMOVE OURSELVES FROM RISK ALL TOGETHER (BAIL TO THE "G") * Lock In Current Gains or Avoid Future Loses.
4) STAY WHERE YOU ARE AND ABSORB ANY LOSS UNTIL THE PRICE RECOVERS OR REBOUNDS.
....Also called a BUY & HOLD strategy, is proven to be more rewarding over the coarse of time.
WHAT EVER YOUR STRATEGY, BE FLEXABLE ENOUGH TO ACCEPT MISTAKES AND LOOK FORWARD TO BETTER DECISIONS.
UTILIZE EVERY TOOL AVAILABLE TO MAKE A INFORMED DECISION AND MAKE CERTAIN THE DECISION IS YOUR OWN.......

 

[luv2read]

My my, we're up late aren't we !

Here's a little tidbit for ya. The four (4) TSP Risk Funds
are showing an Overpayment in each and everyone of
them. They used all the funds. Let my show you;

Thanks for the info SB! :blink:
(yes "we" are....where's mama bear?)