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Squalebear's Account Talk
- Thread starter Guest2
- Start date
Enjoy your time off. :nuts:Yes Nasa, I took notice of that. Either we have a lot of Buy & Hold members,
members too busy to move their money, Pera-Bull members, members
who don't know they can move portions of their money back into the
(G) Fund or members who don't believe in DCA'ing as the market goes
up, just as one could do as the market goes down.
The question is; "is DCA'ing out of the funds, the best move ?"
Here are my thoughts. I believe that DCA'ing could prove to be of benefit
in both a Bull and a Bear Market. But you give up the potential of getting
maximum gains for that month. On the flip side, you give up the potential
for absorbing greater loses as well. As always, If your right more then your
wrong, your TSP account will benefit. As I wrote in a previous post, I'm
totaly out of all "Risk Funds". I didn't bail out like I've done in previous
months. As you can see in the "TSPtalk Automated Tracker", I was willing
to keep my money at risk longer by slowly pulling out portions back into
the (G) Fund. I absorb a small loss yesterday by only having 15% at
risk. Today, it all safely tucked away in the (G) getting partial pennies.
By having all my $$ in the (G), I can calculate what my account will show
at months end by locking in my gains. Here is what I'll have and what the
TSP returns are showing;
YTD TSP RETURNS: YTD SB RETURNS: (As of yesterday 8/12/2008)
C=... -10.99%................+0.67%
S=... -06.77%................
I=.... -15.63%................
F=... +01.34%................
G=... +02.36%................
MTD TSP RETURNS: MTD SB RETURNS: (As of yesterday 8/12/2008)
C=... +01.87%................+1.49%
S=... -01.77%................
I=.... -01.79%................
F=... +00.08%................
G=... +00.16%................
By DCA'ing I've locked in and accepted the following approximated results;
On August 31, 2008 I estimate being; +0.85% YTD and +1.67% MTD.
Will the Funds have another rally or continue the current rally before the
end of the month? Maybe ! The same goes if the market takes a crap.
So I won't know if I'm a Genius or a Egghead until then. But there is one
thing I'm certain of; I'll take a +1.67% gain every month, wouldn't you !
Especially if your risk tolerance is deminishing over time, IFT's are limited
and the current market is in one transition after another.
By the way, I went through this detailed account, not for your benefit
(Nasa) but for those who've just started thinking about their TSP's. Its
just one mans view. It might help them come to a better decision when it
comes time to make one on their own. For you my friend (Nasa) it appears
I'm preaching to the choir. I just wonder (sarcastically) if with all of our
IFT's, are we driving the cost up, as we did before April 2008 (LOL).
luv2read
Active member
Can you see BGI doing a huge -FV today and sticking it to I Funders to salvage some part of their profit - oops - costs?EFA DOWN -19.15% YTD AT THIS VERY MOMENT
DakotaKid
Member
Hey Squalebear.
You're a daily read for me and I appreciate all of your insight and the work that you do.
I was previously among the 3000 that got the notorious letter. Since they've put the restrictions on us, I've felt like a fish out of water. While I can't sit and absorb huge losses like Birch (sure I'll hear it for that), these 2 ifts per month have made me very hesitant to get in....waiting for the best possible entry point (and missing this most recent rally). But I refuse to get in at the top, so I'm biding my time until we get a decent dropoff. I'm watching in particular the rising wedge the Tom is talking about. On the flip side, when I'm in, I'm hesitant to get out because I know I'm done for the month, so I have absorbed those losses I don't want in the hopes that it will rise again.
Ideally, I'd love a 4 or 5 % drop (hope I don't jinx it for those that are in), so I can get in and just leave it for a while. Of course, that would happen if I'd just give up and go in
Anyway, that's just my two cents as to why I haven't been making many trades.
Thanks again for all of the work that you do.
You're a daily read for me and I appreciate all of your insight and the work that you do.
I was previously among the 3000 that got the notorious letter. Since they've put the restrictions on us, I've felt like a fish out of water. While I can't sit and absorb huge losses like Birch (sure I'll hear it for that), these 2 ifts per month have made me very hesitant to get in....waiting for the best possible entry point (and missing this most recent rally). But I refuse to get in at the top, so I'm biding my time until we get a decent dropoff. I'm watching in particular the rising wedge the Tom is talking about. On the flip side, when I'm in, I'm hesitant to get out because I know I'm done for the month, so I have absorbed those losses I don't want in the hopes that it will rise again.
Ideally, I'd love a 4 or 5 % drop (hope I don't jinx it for those that are in), so I can get in and just leave it for a while. Of course, that would happen if I'd just give up and go in
Anyway, that's just my two cents as to why I haven't been making many trades.
Thanks again for all of the work that you do.
Can you see BGI doing a huge -FV today and sticking it to I Funders to salvage some part of their profit - oops - costs?
I can see BGI doing just about anything, but they make it harder on
themselves if their goals are to reflect the MSCI EAFE INDEX. But it
wouldn't surprise my to see the (I) Fund underperform again. I lean
towards the (I) Fund reflecting (very closely) to the losses we'll see
today in the EFA. A little more,,,,,or a little less. But you know them !
Last edited:
hey squalebear.
You're a daily read for me and i appreciate all of your insight and the work that you do. Your too kind and i'm glad my gut helps you !
i was previously among the 3000 that got the notorious letter. Since they've put the restrictions on us, i've felt like a fish out of water. While i can't sit and absorb huge losses like birch (sure i'll hear it for that), these 2 ifts per month have made me very hesitant to get in....waiting for the best possible entry point (and missing this most recent rally). But i refuse to get in at the top, so i'm biding my time until we get a decent dropoff. I'm watching in particular the rising wedge the tom is talking about. On the flip side, when i'm in, i'm hesitant to get out because i know i'm done for the month, so i have absorbed those losses i don't want in the hopes that it will rise again. I was one of the 600 or so that were placed on mail restrictions. They still owe me $9000, I guess they always will. Its all about risk and a sprinkle of luck my friend. Just remember, you don't have to put 100% of your hard earned money into risk, and you can't win if you don't play. Look at today as being a gain of 1.50% because you opted to stay out. When you opt to go in, and lose .25% your ahead of the game. But choose wisely (monty python ref) by doing the homework and you'll soon know what the wing span of a yellow bellied swallow is (another monty reference).
anyway, that's just my two cents as to why i haven't been making many trades. Some of us could only wish to make two cents today!
thanks again for all of the work that you do.
Your most welcome and thanks for the vote of confidence !
Steadygain
TSP Elite
SB, with that ativar Birch and I will be running to you for help.
This one more represents our "Coat of Arms"
This one more represents our "Coat of Arms"
A Final Thought for today !
Nothing has to happen overnight. Time will present opportunity, even in
a Bear Market. Patience and realistic goal setting can be the difference
between sucess in your career,,,,,or,,,,,,sucess in your investments.
Mistakes will be made, we'll learn from them. Luck will make us look like
geniuses from time to time. Squalebear ran out of luck in April of 2008.
(just kidding). You'll hear it time and time again. If a mistake is made,
don't go into denial. Accept the mistake, make adjustments and look
forward to your revised goals and future prospects. If we didn't make
mistakes, we'd be financialy secure and have no need for this excellant
website. I would never have met the glorious members within, either.
Turning a Negative into a Positive is always the best long term goal !
Good Night For Now,,,,, I'll Be Back After The Share Price Update !
Nothing has to happen overnight. Time will present opportunity, even in
a Bear Market. Patience and realistic goal setting can be the difference
between sucess in your career,,,,,or,,,,,,sucess in your investments.
Mistakes will be made, we'll learn from them. Luck will make us look like
geniuses from time to time. Squalebear ran out of luck in April of 2008.
(just kidding). You'll hear it time and time again. If a mistake is made,
don't go into denial. Accept the mistake, make adjustments and look
forward to your revised goals and future prospects. If we didn't make
mistakes, we'd be financialy secure and have no need for this excellant
website. I would never have met the glorious members within, either.
Turning a Negative into a Positive is always the best long term goal !
Good Night For Now,,,,, I'll Be Back After The Share Price Update !
SB, with that ativar Birch and I will be running to you for help.
This one more represents our "Coat of Arms"
Steady, I see your avitar more like;
"A Bull Beating A Bear Over The Head With A Baseball Bat" (LoL).
When I saw the picture, I just knew it would stir a little conversation !
With that my friend, I must hit the hey ! I'm reading every word that
you write on a daily basis. I can't get enough of you ! (IN A MANLY KINDA WAY) !
Keep'n it real,,,,,your da man Big Brother !
As discussed in various threads today with L2R and company, The Fund
Managers not only saw fit to payoff more debt, they paid off a TON of
debt. The (I) Fund lost all most (3/4) three quarters of a percent more
then the EFA. This display of kindness by the powers above resulted in;
The (I) Funders felt the pain that we feared and cautioned about. AND,
The Debt was driven down to the "Green" area of the O/D Tracker. If the
(I) Fund goes up from here, it'll be helped by additional debt being added
on. Remember, there's still more room in the "Green" to payoff more debt
and a "Black" area which has been rarely seen. Its always possible to see
both. But the downside (down is bad) has been significantly cut all most
in half. All in all, a better entry point into the (I) Fund is taking shape.
Congratulations to the (S) Funders for pulling out a positive day in a sea
of red. Strong conviction pays off and I'm hearing more Bullish outlooks.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Managers not only saw fit to payoff more debt, they paid off a TON of
debt. The (I) Fund lost all most (3/4) three quarters of a percent more
then the EFA. This display of kindness by the powers above resulted in;
The (I) Funders felt the pain that we feared and cautioned about. AND,
The Debt was driven down to the "Green" area of the O/D Tracker. If the
(I) Fund goes up from here, it'll be helped by additional debt being added
on. Remember, there's still more room in the "Green" to payoff more debt
and a "Black" area which has been rarely seen. Its always possible to see
both. But the downside (down is bad) has been significantly cut all most
in half. All in all, a better entry point into the (I) Fund is taking shape.
Congratulations to the (S) Funders for pulling out a positive day in a sea
of red. Strong conviction pays off and I'm hearing more Bullish outlooks.
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Since I'm out of the Market, I thought I'd post this in addition to O/D
Tracker. Just for Poop and Giggles. Accuracy is based on my spread
sheet and I round everything off. You may see slight differences.
YTD TSP RETURNS: YTD SB CURRENT RETURNS:
C=... -11.21%................+0.67%
S=... -06.38%................
I=.... -17.58%................
F=... +01.19%................
G=... +02.35%................
MTD TSP RETURNS: MTD SB CURRENT RETURNS:
C=... +01.67%................+1.49%
S=... +02.28%................
I=.... -04.05%................
F=... -00.05%................
G=... +00.14%................
Tracker. Just for Poop and Giggles. Accuracy is based on my spread
sheet and I round everything off. You may see slight differences.
YTD TSP RETURNS: YTD SB CURRENT RETURNS:
C=... -11.21%................+0.67%
S=... -06.38%................
I=.... -17.58%................
F=... +01.19%................
G=... +02.35%................
MTD TSP RETURNS: MTD SB CURRENT RETURNS:
C=... +01.67%................+1.49%
S=... +02.28%................
I=.... -04.05%................
F=... -00.05%................
G=... +00.14%................
SB,
WOW!! Shock and surprise. I jumped on my post thinking we where headed for a small rally only to see the numbers going red with less than a half hour to closing. So I shut off the computer. But the numbers didn't look real bad. To my surprise govexec.com showed .04 for C, .08 for S (yes) and .48 for I. A nice surprise for S but I was a shocker. Tracker not updated yet so I do not what few pennies I made. Feel sorry for those in the I today. Barclays stuck it to us, again.
I guess the force was with me a little bit today.:laugh:
May the force be with us.
WOW!! Shock and surprise. I jumped on my post thinking we where headed for a small rally only to see the numbers going red with less than a half hour to closing. So I shut off the computer. But the numbers didn't look real bad. To my surprise govexec.com showed .04 for C, .08 for S (yes) and .48 for I. A nice surprise for S but I was a shocker. Tracker not updated yet so I do not what few pennies I made. Feel sorry for those in the I today. Barclays stuck it to us, again.
I guess the force was with me a little bit today.:laugh:
May the force be with us.
luv2read
Active member
Can you see BGI doing a huge -FV today and sticking it to I Funders to salvage some part of their profit - oops - costs?
I can see BGI doing just about anything, but they make it harder on
themselves if their goals are to reflect the MSCI EAFE INDEX. But it
wouldn't surprise my to see the (I) Fund underperform again. I lean
towards the (I) Fund reflecting (very closely) to the losses we'll see
today in the EFA. A little more,,,,,or a little less. But you know them !
According to the contract, and TSP.gov, BGI is NOT doing what they are obligated to do in management of the I fund, i.e., reflecting the MSCI EAFE INDEX. Breach of contract? Where is DOL and Congressional oversight of FRTIB fiduciary responsibility? Oh thats right...busy slipping a new law relieving FRTIB of all accountability into a TOBACCO bill that's going to be paid for by changes to the TSP.
According to the contract, and TSP.gov, BGI is NOT doing what they are obligated to do in management of the I fund, i.e., reflecting the MSCI EAFE INDEX. Breach of contract? Where is DOL and Congressional oversight of FRTIB fiduciary responsibility? Oh thats right...busy slipping a new law relieving FRTIB of all accountability into a TOBACCO bill that's going to be paid for by changes to the TSP.
I guess their definition of "Reflect" is different then mine too !
I find this little tidbit interesting as well. Check this out !
YTD PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ALL TSP RISK FUNDS:
C vs. SPX = +1.34% (C-outperforms)
S vs. DWCPF = +1.57% (S-outperforms)
I vs. EFA = +1.33% (I-outperforms)
F vs. AGG = +2.64% (F-outperforms)
In conclusion, you'll find that YTD, all TSP Risk Funds have been doing
better then the ETF's and Indexes we track. So you see, they don't
appear to be hurting us accept for the way they manage the funds daily.
When we look at the O/D Tracker, were actually looking at the whole
thing through a magnafying glass. But the Big Picture shows the three
stock funds with extremely similar overpayments to the TSP Funds. The
(I) Fund has received no more over payment the the (C) Fund.
I find this little tidbit interesting as well. Check this out !
YTD PERCENTAGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ALL TSP RISK FUNDS:
C vs. SPX = +1.34% (C-outperforms)
S vs. DWCPF = +1.57% (S-outperforms)
I vs. EFA = +1.33% (I-outperforms)
F vs. AGG = +2.64% (F-outperforms)
In conclusion, you'll find that YTD, all TSP Risk Funds have been doing
better then the ETF's and Indexes we track. So you see, they don't
appear to be hurting us accept for the way they manage the funds daily.
When we look at the O/D Tracker, were actually looking at the whole
thing through a magnafying glass. But the Big Picture shows the three
stock funds with extremely similar overpayments to the TSP Funds. The
(I) Fund has received no more over payment the the (C) Fund.
Aspiration
Member
OP=Options
Wow, I'm thinking you jumped in at the right time when looking at the
O/D Tracker Debt. But the Dollar and European Economy just isn't were
it needs to be. I would hesitate making any recommendations to the
(I) Fund. But just as in the US Market, one strong piece of good news
could really take the (I) Fund off its YTD Low ! Good Luck My Friend !
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