Squalebear's Account Talk

But anyone who stuck to their guns since August 1st within the (C) and (S),,,,,well,,,, Thats MOST EXCELLANT DUDE !!!!

Thanks - but Buster and I can take little credit as we've been 100% S Fund since early June.

The 2 ITF - makes it very difficult to bail early in the month; knowing if it bounces back you can't get back in.

So what we made over the past week or so is nice (and especially with me buying additional shares just before the bounce).

At some point you have to determine if the bottom is closer than the top. Despite the mountain of "bad news" and a possible new low in the short term - the overwhelming odds are an uptread will dominate in the last quarter.
 
Hang tough Steady..the tea leaves are predicting and Birch is too, a terrific ascension and it's just now starting...I think now more and more I will continue to HOLD in S and not bail..If today closes at it's current rate or higher..I'll be about even with my June 3rd entry point...So looking at it that way ..then we are starting off with a clean slate..so let's start earning profits, can't do that sitting in G.;)
 
Hang tough Steady..the tea leaves are predicting and Birch is too, a terrific ascension and it's just now starting...I think now more and more I will continue to HOLD in S and not bail..If today closes at it's current rate or higher..I'll be about even with my June 3rd entry point...So looking at it that way ..then we are starting off with a clean slate..so let's start earning profits, can't do that sitting in G.;)

Amen !! Brother

When I went 100% I did it with all the confidence in the world. Now, more than ever, I will stay where I am.
 
The 2 ITF - makes it very difficult to bail early in the month; knowing if it bounces back you can't get back in.

Hang tough Steady..the tea leaves are predicting and Birch is too, a terrific ascension and it's just now starting...I think now more and more I will continue to HOLD in S and not bail..If today closes at it's current rate or higher..I'll be about even with my June 3rd entry point...So looking at it that way ..then we are starting off with a clean slate..so let's start earning profits, can't do that sitting in G

My big brother and Buster, before I say whats on my mind, I want you
to know that your outstanding results couldn't happen to a nicer people
or a closer big brother. Even Buster deserves to be commended for his
testicular fortitude. I mean that from the bottom of my heart.

For me, having only two IFT makes it more difficult for me to stay in the
market, know it could tank the day after a marvelous gain. And there goes
the difference in our philosophy. It sounds like a Bear vs. Bull mentality.
I'm thinking the Markets going down "more" then its going up. You believe
we're closer to the bottom and the opportunities are sky high. To be
honest with you, I try not to fall into the media stuff, but its hard. I seek
out all the positive information I can. I read all the posts on our website.
I try to learn about the fundamentals and technicals which takes time.
When I'm done, I throw it all into my gut and try to make a informed
decision. So far, I've outperformed every stock fund in the TSP for the
last three years. (Sounds easy in a Bull Market, but its not). Since late
last year, I've been seeing a few things I've never seen before. First, I
never had restrictions of Interfund Transfers to contend with. Second,
I've never been exposed to a Bear Market. I can't even get excited about
beating the (C) (S) or (I) because that could be accomplished by simply
staying in the (G) since the begining of the year. Your comment about
"finding out if the bottom is closer then the top" is exactly what I'm trying
to do. But I haven't reached a conclusion just yet. When I do figure where
we're at, there's still a chance that I will be wrong. My tolerance for loses
has been strinking everyday since my 50th Birthday. The clock is ticking
and mistakes or bad decisions are getting more costly. But I won't let
fear or indecision compromise my goals. I will continue to do what I've
been doing and hopefully figure it all out before the next Bear Market.
 
SB - go with your heart my friend. I've got plenty of years left before I need to worry about Capital Preservation - so this year is no big deal for me - plus it's the first time I've lost in the TSP.

If I were close to retirement I would NOT be as risky - but with the number of shares I've obtained since I first started THINGS are working to my advantage.

If we would drop another 10 - 15% then I would buy a whole lot more additional shares. In the long run the Economy will stand and the recent strains will be a thing of the past.

Nothing wrong with waiting until things are more certain and secure.
 
My big brother and Buster, before I say whats on my mind, I want you
to know that your outstanding results couldn't happen to a nicer people
or a closer big brother. Even Buster deserves to be commended for his
testicular fortitude. I mean that from the bottom of my heart.
Thank you SB..that's the nicest thing said to me in a long time..usually I'm inundated by negative replies and contradiction just to be contrary..the Ignore option fixed that:suspicious:

But, even though today was nice, it wasn't great, and that's the way I like it...Hoping that in light of a marginal gain today, leaves us more room for better gains tomorrow..;)

b
 
SB, make no mistake, you are 'da man and we all appreciate your work and consil here on the MB. Take stock. There are about 3.9 million people in the TSP that don't even know they already lost more than 15% in the last 2 months - alone (you know, the one's that said "yea, cut those IFT costs generated by those "day traders").

This is a different and difficult market, and the lack of IFTs only compounds the risk of loss and hampers our ability to profit.

My take is that the market is at the bottom of a great big whole. It will make it back up out of the whole, but it will take time. When I was closing in on loosing >16% in a month-and-half, I almost pull the rip-cord to the G-Fund w/o IFTs. I'm glad I didn't.

I am still wary, as I believe there is a very large cliff out there, even now. We may miss it. But, I watch out for it every day, i.e. FDIC needs money to insure. But for now, I'm having to let every darn 3%-drop train run over me and then I get back up again, and again, but its paying off. It isn't easy ... and I curse the TSP Board every day for their ignorance, audacity, and strong-handed-ness and the 3.9 million members for their apathy.


Sir, you are not one of those 3.9 million.

Nsurf9
 
I reduced my exposure to stocks from 50G/25C/25S at COB today to 80G/10S/10C. I managed to capture a 2% gain this month and need to do that the rest of the year to break even. I'm not trusting the low volume yet. It's been between 4-5M the last five days and a little bad news could still tube the market. Like SB I am unwilling to lose large amounts based on my remaining time to retirement. Plus I am starting vacation and will not be able to monitor much.
JB45
 
SB - go with your heart my friend. Nothing wrong with waiting until things are more certain and secure.

Thanks Steady, It was only a few weeks ago that I was posting my new
goals and my attempts to be more patient. You might recall me saying
Hit&Run Baby. But instead of taking a 1% gain and missing out on the
additional 4.40% gain (like in July) I've been slowly DCAing out of stocks
during the upward move. I'm risking less each day and locking in some
much needed gains. My patience is paying off. Not as much as I would
like, because I'm a "greedy cuss". But hey, I'll take a +1.62% MTD result
(currently) every month. Heck, I'd have to go premium if I could do that
each month ! :nuts:

Thank you SB..that's the nicest thing said to me in a long time...a marginal gain today, leaves us more room for better gains
tomorrow..

Mom told me I had to be nice and share ! More room for gains is why I feel
pretty good that I haven't bailed out of the Stock Funds like I did in June
and July. Each day up brings us closer to A drop. In Correctional Services,
we call that "Confrontational Avoidance Technique". I don't want to be faced
with a drop back down to negative YTD results. With the 2 IFT limits, I'm
taking a bigger chance at missing some nice days at 100%. But I'll take
the +0.27% I had today with confidence that I risked less and did better
then sitting in the (G) Fund Hell Hole. ;)

If we continue up tomorrow it is definitely conformation of a breakout and the bottom MAY be in?

Norm, you have a real gift ( a few .gifs too) :) I love the technicals that
I'm seeing. And as you know, oil was in Bear Territory today. As much as
I want a bottom confirmation, I want to go back into stock funds when I
decide to and not have to wait until September. But alas, My moves can
only go one way and the tropics will get some attention before the end
of this week. Georgia/Russia will weigh eventually and some analyst are
surprised it didn't happen during last weeks attack on the pipeline. In the
middle of the day, I heard it would take a cattle prod to boost volume to
a billion shares. The pull back during the afternoon was expected. But the
market climbs on a wall of worry. Especially when its me worrying ! :nuts:

SB, we all appreciate your work. My take is that the market is at the bottom of a great big whole. When I was closing in on loosing >16% in a month-and-half, I almost pull the rip-cord to the G-Fund w/o IFTs. I'm glad I didn't. Sir, you are not one of those 3.9 million. Nsurf9

Nsurf9, you're comments have always motivated me to continue with what
I do here on Tsptalk. When I sit back and dwell on how hard it is, its my
friends on this MB that soon remind me of whats important. Thank you for
that ! The rip-cord can have a "hair trigger" when faced with a YTD loss and
you should be proud of yourself for having the cahonies to see it thru. I'm
proud of myself for having the intelligence to join this great website. When
Ebb went premium, I thought of leaving. Now that would've been a move
to regret. I'm in better shape, retirement wise, as a result.
 
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I reduced my exposure to stocks from 50G/25C/25S at COB today to 80G/10S/10C. I managed to capture a 2% gain this month and need to do that the rest of the year to break even. I'm not trusting the low volume yet. It's been between 4-5M the last five days and a little bad news could still tube the market. Like SB I am unwilling to lose large amounts based on my remaining time to retirement. Plus I am starting vacation and will not be able to monitor much.
JB45

Ahhhhhhhh VACATION !!!!!!
If 80%-10%-10% brings you to a comfort level, based on your inability to
monitor the market, then all you have left to do is ENJOY the time off and
have fun. Put the market behind you and do something to remember for
years to come. Even if its a stay-cation, turn off CNBC and Bloomberg for
a while and start lifting those 8 oz.'ers in the sun. We'll try to get along
without you, but don't be gone long. I don't know how long we'll be able
to do this without you !

O/D TRACKER UPDATE COMING UP NEXT
 
The (I) Fund outperformed the EFA by more then a half percent.
The EFA lost -0.09% in comparison to the +0.48% gain that the
(I) Funders got. And still, the (I) Fund didn't do as well as the US
Market did (C) and (S). Now the O/D Tracker sits in the "HIGH"
area and as you can see, paybacks are eminant. Maybe we can
get lucky enough to have a +3% day to absorb the payback due.
But any payback will set the stage for the continuence of the
(I) Fund to underperform the US Market. If in stocks, for right now,
the (C) and the (S) have greater potential to please. ;)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08)
+0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents :mad:


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher) :mad:
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
The (I) Fund outperformed the EFA by more then a half percent.
The EFA lost -0.09% in comparison to the +0.48% gain that the
(I) Funders got. And still, the (I) Fund didn't do as well as the US
Market did (C) and (S). Now the O/D Tracker sits in the "HIGH"
area and as you can see, paybacks are eminant. Maybe we can
get lucky enough to have a +3% day to absorb the payback due.
But any payback will set the stage for the continuence of the
(I) Fund to underperform the US Market. If in stocks, for right now,
the (C) and the (S) have greater potential to please. ;)

SB,

Thanks for your updates. I was surprised by the .10 payout in the "I" fund. I stopped watching Yahoo Finance about 4:00pm EST and the EFA was negative. I guess Barclays wants to keep us confused. :confused: Looking at pulling back soon to protect a nice month. Just over 2% MTD. Currently sitting 15G, 45C & 40S thinking maybe 15CS or 10C &15S. Oh well, I hope not to make the move to late. :D Have a nice vacation.......

May the force be with us.:cool:
 
Excellent summary, thanks!

Good Morning to you ! Best of Luck ! I'll be concentrating on
my "Honey Do" list today. Duty Calls, Even at home. So I'll try
to squeeze some time in and stop by again.

SB,Thanks for your updates. I was surprised by the .10 payout in the "I" fund. I stopped watching Yahoo Finance about 4:00pm EST and the EFA was negative. I guess Barclays wants to keep us confused. Looking at pulling back soon to protect a nice month. Just over 2% MTD. Currently sitting 15G, 45C & 40S thinking maybe 15CS or 10C &15S. Oh well, I hope not to make the move to late. Have a nice vacation.......May the force be with us.

Nasa, Its my opinion that Barclays will manage the Over/Under Payments
based on daily corporate need. At the whim of powers above and such.
Take note of the levels that were maintaned 2 weeks ago in the tracker.
4 days straight in the blue, all by design. They don't want to go too high
in the red on either side of the tracker, so the stay in the Red over the last
month has been short and sweet (not really sweet). Our goal should be to have
our money in the "Black" idealistically. The "Green" is pretty darn good and
the "Blue" is less then desired. When we hit the "Red", we're forced to
hope for a monster day to ease the pain of a payback.

OH YES, JB45 IS GOING ON VACATION. MINE STARTS LABOR DAY WEEK.
ITS ALWAYS A STAY-CATION, BUT I'M GONNA MAKE THE BEST OF IT, THX!
 
Ahhhhhhhh VACATION !!!!!!
If 80%-10%-10% brings you to a comfort level, based on your inability to
monitor the market, then all you have left to do is ENJOY the time off and
have fun.

:) I will be 100G when I get on the plane Thursday. Then I will have a high comfort level. I have a new grandson (5th grandkid) that I haven't met yet we are going to visit.
 
I will be 100G when I get on the plane Thursday. Then I will have a high comfort level. I have a new grandson (5th grandkid) that I haven't met yet we are going to visit.


How GREAT is that ! I bet your very excited to finally see your 5th !
Have a Great visit and don't scare the new addition too badly with
all those kisses. :)

I'm pulling out the 15% I have in the (C) and (S) which will put me at
100% (G) for the rest of August. That should leave me around +1.78%
MTD and +0.97% YTD when all is said and done. Minus what happens
today, of coarse. I'll be back later this afternoon to see how things
have gone. Until then, may the market surprise to the upside and
allow me to that +1% for the month. Futures aren't cooperating but
we've seen that turn around mid day. Oil looks to have a push up on
the Trade Deficit figures. Better for GDP but economics are weighing.

BEST OF LUCK TO US ALL ! ;)
 
From Yahoo Finance:
"Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ and editor of The Big Picture, thinks this is just the latest in a series of predictable bear market rallies and that we won't be done until the Dow is below 10,000."

Is this guy for real??
 
Two days straight in the "RED" means hardly any debt was paid off.
The debt holds in the Forty Cent range (High Aea). So the EFA and
(I) Fund returns were quite similar. Unfortunately, to the negative
side. There's not much to add to yesterdays commentary. The (I)
Fund should continue to underperform as long as we have a rising
Dollar, European Economic Instability and a Debt that is easily seen
on the O/D Tracker. Japans 2nd Quarter GDP shrinkage isn't gonna
help too much either.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08)
+0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents :mad:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher) :mad:
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
GOOD MORNING EVERYONE

Japan Closed down -2.00% along with Austrialia and
Europe is hovering down around -0.66%.

:worried:​
 
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