Squalebear's Account Talk

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As of 10:45am Today

EFA is -20.97% YTD & -6.68% MTD
SPX is -13.51% YTD & +0.33% MTD
DWCPF is -9.01% YTD & +0.57% MTD
AGG is is -0.91% YTD & -0.15% MTD

:mad: Too Much Too Fast !
 
I'll be back to catch up on a little reading and update the O/D Tracker.
In the mean time, I'd like those involved in the BGI discussion to know
that it was informative and fun. Best of all, we got together for a while!
;)
 
luv2read said:
OK SB, here it is.
Click to expand...

(LoL) Nothing like catching up ! :nuts: Thanks my partner ! ;)

I received another unsolicited update of the EFA from a Pay Service
looking for me to give them money for something I could have told them.

(-10) Last Hour Close Below 5 hour Moving Average
(-15) New 3 Day Low on Tuesday
(-20) Last Price Below 20 Day Moving Average
(-25) New 3 Week Low, Week Ending August 23rd
(-30) New 3 Month Low in August
------------------------------------------------
(
transpix.gif
-100) Total Score (Worst Score Possible) :mad:
 
For the last month, "Green" means greater gains or lesser loses. As long
as the Fund Managers don't pull a reversal on us again, tomarrow should
either closely reflect to EFA returns or do BETTER then the EFA. We've
seen the teens before, but rarely. Heres hoping that anyone the (I) Fund
will have a positive day and get overpaid to boot! My gut is so use to
disappointment within the (I) Fund, I'm finding it difficult to believe that
anything positive is even possible. But hey, maybe the "DUE FACTOR" will
come into play tomarrow. If the market hits another bump in the road, I
think the Fund Managers could offset some of that by adding to the debt.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.9757%+0.1517 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents :)
(8/20/08)...........................................
(8/21/08)...........................................
(8/22/08)...........................................
WEEKLY..-0.0000% -0.0000 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
I'm not satisfied,,,, and won't be until I surpass the (G) and (F) YTD.
Go ahead, call me greedy ! But I must beat them to justify my efforts ! :suspicious:

YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
C=... -12.50%................+1.03%
S=... -07.93%................
I=.... -19.67%................
F=... +01.59%................
G=... +02.44%................

I look like a real genius right now, but we have 8 trading days to prove
that I'm really just as dumb as BGI and the FRTIB, gosh I hope not ! :)

MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
C=... +00.14%................+1.54%
S=... +00.50%................
I =.... -06.49%................
F=... +00.33%................
G=... +00.24%................
 
squalebear said:
I'm not satisfied,,,, and won't be until I surpass the (G) and (F) YTD.
Go ahead, call me greedy ! But I must beat them to justify my efforts ! :suspicious:
Click to expand...

No worries there Squalebear. Even if the C fund does catch up or beat you, there is something to be said (and gained) from limiting your exposer to this bear market. If you think about it, if you're invested half the time and make more then half the profits, then you're beating the markets.

By my standards, you're doing just fine and perhaps a little SB dance is in order... :cheesy:
 
The last time the O/D Tracker showed "Green" two days in a row, the
Fund Managers saw it fit to give the (I) Fund close to a half percent
in overpayment the following day. (8/5,8/6,8/7). So my gut is saying
that the (I) Fund could see a sweeter day tomarrow then today. We
just need a positive day to go along with it. A positive day is nothing
to complain about, but 5 of the last 7 days have been negative in a
big way. The 2 positive days could only muster gains of just over a
half percent. The last time two times the (I) went positive, it was
followed by a loss of approximately -1.50% over a 2 or 3 day period.
Here's hoping we see a a different trend for tomarrow. :worried:

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2027 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.39%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2818 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.54%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2692 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.35%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.3320 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.73%

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.9757%+0.1517 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents :)
(8/21/08)...........................................
(8/22/08)...........................................
WEEKLY..+0.0000% -0.0000 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
SB, I was thinking opening an account based on the old TSP rules on the autotracker and would encourage others to do to give proof what could be done in this market, instead of just breaking even, or less, like what been relegated to us by the TSP Board.

Any thoughts, anyone?
 
squalebear said:
L2R & LADY​


I thought of you two when I saw this.​



Thanks for all that you do !​
Click to expand...
SB, you are too, too kind! Here is a "back atcha" quote (with apologies to Cicero) that I think of every time you post one of your analyses: "What nobler employment, or more valuable to the [MB], than that of the man who instructs the rising generation?"

Blessings on you, noble instructor SB! :):)

Lady
 
nsurf9 said:
SB, I was thinking opening an account based on the old TSP rules on the autotracker and would encourage others to do to give proof what could be done in this market, instead of just breaking even, or less, like what been relegated to us by the TSP Board.
Any thoughts, anyone?
Click to expand...

Nsurf, this sounds quite similar to the seperate spreadsheet I kept while
under mail restrictions. I documented the moves that I would have made
without limits or sending my IFT request via snail mail. I even put some
comments next to the days trading information to reflect my current
feelings and to explain why I made the IFT to begin with. When all was
said and done, the Thrift Board's decision cost me approximately $9000
in profit (and that included putting the gains in the (G) Fund until my
mandatory retirement age - 2015). If you could look back as far as
April within my thread, you'd see my comments about what the Board
owed me. http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=5705&page=257 :mad:

Now my current thoughts; At the risk of sounding like a defeatist, I want
you to know that every spreadsheet, every webpage copy of rejected
attempts to do IFT's and every thought that I had was trown in the trash.
The fight to stop the Board was one to remember. Some members not
only endured Federal pressure and scrutiny, they put their money where
their mouth was. Not to the extent of taking anyone to court, but the
personal time and expense was there non the less. Now, the Board has
been granted immunity (as documented in other threads) and I can't help
but think of what could've been. Its enough to make someone so angry,
that they could easily make a decision to respond via their account and
regret it for years to come. Since I did not have the financial means to
fight them in court (nor the expertise and knowledge), I did what mostly
everyone did. We took it on the chin, got over it and moved on. Tom can
confirm or deny what I'm about to say, but, the Automated Tracker is set
up for its members to compete, win prizes, have fun and become a little
more aware of your TSP Account then if it never existed. The rules which
govern the tracker and its purpose would have to change should we all
decide to utilize it as a tool to show "what could have been". You could
always keep a seperate spreadsheet to accomplish the same thing. :confused:

The Bottom Line; As noble as it may be, any attempts to change the
current circumstances which surround the IFT ruling is futile unless taken
to the Courts and Legally presented by those with alot more resources
then you or I could muster. The FRTIB Attorneys would ensure that the
battle would be a Costly and long drawn out affair. The TSPtalk tracker
would carry no weight against the legality of their ruling. So I'm forced
to say that the Automated Tracker should continue as is. You are one
of my closest friends here on the TSPtalk site and I figured it best to
tell you as I see it. Your goals and motivation prove that I'm still a good
judge of character, even if its determined through an open forum. :)
 
XL-entLady said:
SB, you are too, too kind! Here is a "back atcha" quote (with apologies to Cicero) that I think of every time you post one of your analyses: "What nobler employment, or more valuable to the [MB], than that of the man who instructs the rising generation?"
Blessings on you, noble instructor SB! Lady
Click to expand...

Heeeey, I Am The Rising Generation ! I Just Want Mo Money !
All joking aside, your words humble me and I thank you soooo much ! ;)

luv2read said:
Lady, I can't improve on that, so I'll just say ..... ditto! L2R
Click to expand...

Your soooo well read and share soooo much with everyone, It is I who
should is beholding to you ! Keep them on their toes darling. I don't have
the time, not the skills to accomplish what you have within these walls !

Speaking of walls, I'm late for Duty ! O/D Tracker Update comes next ! ;)
 
No time for thoughts, I'll leave this one up to you guys ! After all, your
comments are always welcome and the members might even enjoy a
different opinion or perspective concerning the data.

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = 0.2040 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.40%
(S) Fund vs.. DWCPF = 0.2716 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.49%
(I) .Fund vs. the EFA = 0.2401 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.20%
(F) Fund vs. the AGG = 0.2956 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.43%

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents
(7/29/08) -0.3038% -0.3039 tsp cents
(7/30/08) +0.2671% -0.3650 tsp cents
(7/31/08) +0.1610% -0.3266 tsp cents
(8/01/08) +0.4469% -0.4172 tsp cents
WEEKLY..+0.9757%+0.1517 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/04/08) -0.0408% -0.4046 tsp cents
(8/05/08) -0.6135% -0.2821 tsp cents
(8/06/08) -0.1200% -0.2564 tsp cents
(8/07/08) +0.4625% -0.3490 tsp cents
(8/08/08) -0.1342% -0.3219 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.5811% -0.0953 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/11/08) +0.5724% -0.4440 tsp cents
(8/12/08) -0.0567% -0.4287 tsp cents
(8/13/08) -0.7199% -0.2719 tsp cents
(8/14/08) +0.6715% -0.4104 tsp cents
(8/15/08) -0.1735% -0.3715 tsp cents
WEEKLY..-0.0393%+0.0496 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(8/18/08) +0.0903% -0.3882 tsp cents
(8/19/08) -0.4733% -0.2878 tsp cents
(8/20/08) -0.1002% -0.2692 tsp cents
(8/21/08) -0.1488% -0.2401 tsp cents :)
(8/22/08)...........................................
WEEKLY..+0.0000% -0.0000 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .9999 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :)
- .2000 thru -.1000 (Not Seen Too Often)
- .1000 thru -.0000 (Not Seen For Over 2 Months)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Lower)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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