Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

from govexec.com:notesn Merrill Lynch...."we're not in a recession" on fund manager income....that's just obscene.

Barf Bag Optional
Blaaaaaah ~~~~

 

[Guest2]

He-Man and Skeletor live!

Do You Ever Sleep ????? (LoL)
I read Dennis is calling it quits.
So Sad !

 

[Guest2]

Do you? LOL! Oops...I forgot, bears hibernate during the winter!

I saw that also. FRTIB has tried to shut down TSPTALK once before. They didn't succeed then, and hopefully they won't succeed now.

Has it really come to this? When the AirMarshalls started up a forum to
communicate with each other, the first site was shut down as they spoke
of things (they shouldn't have). ie....National Security , Procedures etc...
IMO, that was totally justifiable.

This site ? Maybe on a personal level, someone might get into their
feelings and take someone to court over a slanderous remark. But for the
FRTIB to actively persuit a website (or a member) for excersizing their 1st
Amendment Rights is a rediculous waste of time and taxpayers money. Go
figure, yet another blunder to add to the incompetance list. I can see the
headlines now; WEBSITE OWNER CALLED TO TESTIFY AGAINST BARCLAYS
AND THE FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD.:blink:

 

[Guest2]

I have this feeling, a feeling that Bear Blood is starting to flow. The shorts
are going to feel some pain, and this is good for those who dare! James
P&F Chart has a handle on it. Uptrend has his eye on the VIX and today
looks to be one, not to miss.

Does anyone have DeJa Vue ? This feels like a Monday continuation type
day. But to be burned at 100% (possible) I have lowered my "make believe"
portfolio currently at 40(C)20(S)40(I)

Not to miss out TOTALY because I'm a skidish Bull;
Now, its 20(C)10(S)20(I)50(G). Taking some off the
table for ? Monday ? I have all year. I think thats DCA'ing.
Currently +9.05% YTD

My "real deal" portfolio
is +4.58% YTD at this hour.
Only down $5773.96 and climbing
due to, you know what,,,pooh !
Not 1 IFT made for April, not One !
55(F)20(C)15(S)10(I)

On the bright side, even the "real deal"
has moved up since April Fools Day !

 

[Guest2]

I surf this puppy like it has flees. I'm all over the joint. Robo has been read
and boy can he write (kinda like you) ! You guys must have voice to write
recognition software or something. (LoL)

It took me 45 minutes to write this ! :nuts:

Thanks for the Robo-a-go-go.
He's one of my favorites.

 

[Guest2]

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The Dow Theory appears poised to go on a buy signal as of Friday's close. All that's needed for that to happen is for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU Dow Jones Industrial Average to close above precisely 12,743.19. That certainly looks likely, since the Dow as of midday was some 125 points higher than that. See Market Snapshot.

The Dow Theory, for those who don't know, is the oldest market-timing system still in widespread use. Though its adherents do not always agree on all aspects of their interpretations, the theory's general outline is clear enough: A buy signal is generated when both the Dow industrials and the
$TRAN 5,100.27, +113.30, +2.3%) reach significant new highs, while a sell signal is triggered when both averages reach significant new lows.
The Dow Transports, for their part, already has more than fulfilled its end of the bargain for such a buy signal, rising decisively above its late-February high. So for several weeks now, all Dow Theory eyes have been trained on the Dow industrials: Would the blue-chip benchmark be able to rise above its Feb. 1 closing high of 12,743.19?

If the Dow Theory does indeed flash a buy signal as of Friday's close, it would represent a quick reversal of its sell signal from last lall. And it would mean that this sell signal was only slightly profitable. For example, on the interpretation of Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, that sell came on Nov. 23, when the Dow industrials closed at 12,980.88. The Dow as of midday on Friday was just 1% lower than that. :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

That is excellent information - keep the good stuff coming, thanx.

 

[nasa1974]

I went all "G" yesterday. Maybe one day to soon out of the "I" but happy I cut out of the "F" yesterday. If Monday looks like a good move could you guys let me know? I sure would like to break even for the year.
Also I have been doing some good reading I do not know if I am interpreting correctly but I will start put out some info Monday. It may be stuff you guys already know though. But something worth discussing.
Have a good weekend. If I get time I will get back on line. Remodling my bathroom.

 

[Guest2]

Well today one was heck of a good day. Even the F-Fund rebounded off
it's lows into a positive gain. The Dow slammed through the forever hoped
for level of a Buy Signal. And the I-Fund finally gave back all but .03 TSP
cents (single digits) it owed us. Just when I started barking about Barclay
waiting for down days, they hit us up with a sweet payback. May we all
have more of this on Monday.

I'll be back in the morning on Saturday, however, I thought I'd share how
the I-Fund Managed the deficits I've been speaking about. Remember, the
figures do NOT represent FV, but are affected by it, I'm sure.

THE FOLLOWING IS HOW MY TRACKING SHOWS A DEFICIT (GOOD) OR OVERPAYMENT (BAD) WITH CONCERN TO THE (I) FUND FOR THE WEEK OF APRIL 14 THRU APRIL 18, 2008. DEFICITS ARE SHOWN IN RED. FRIDAY, APRIL 11TH ENDED WITH A DEFICIT IN SINGLE DIGITS (-.07 TSP Cents);

Mon -.13 High, Deficit Increases
Tue -.23 Very High (Calls for Payback)
Wed -.19 High (Little Given Back)
Thr -.22 Very High (Call for Payback)
Fri -.03 Target Hit (YTD %'s Reflect)

TAKE NOTE ON FRIDAY, BARCLAYS ALLOWED THE I-FUND TO OUT
PERFORM THE EFA IN ORDER TO KEEP THEIR YTD % AVERAGES CLOSE.
THE GOAL IS TO CLOSELY REFLECT EACH OTHERS RETURNS.
THE EFA IS NOW +4.06% YTD,,,,,,,,,THE I-FUND IS NOW +4.20% YTD

Again, I'll be back in the morning to see whats cooking. :nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

Squalebear,

Since I moved one day to soon and missed a good "I" profit. Do we make a move today or tomorrow for a possible run this week?

 

[robo]

I apologize in advance for stepping on Squalebear's toes but it's Saturday here and IMO too early to make a decision for Monday. For some good info, see the "Bear Cave" and "P&F Chart School" threads. They seem to coincide. I'd like to see Robo's opinion (and a few others) on Libor's effect before I make a decision. Also the S&P seasonality chart Tom posts shows that historically next week is weak (lol) for the market. I'm still learning how to use and understand charts and technical indicators to better effect. These other guys really have the know how.

Squalebear, my apologies, this is your thread. My opinion could be completely off base.

Anidoc,

Making my rounds and read your comments.

Bottom line for me and for the record: I continue to buy and sell short-term on overbought and oversold levels at resistance levels and support levels. We are up against resistance levels so I'm in cash looking for some retracement of this rally.

Now, that doesn't mean we can't rally next week. It just means that I'll miss it because I'm in cash waiting for a better set-up. I'm LT Bullish, but heavy in cash after a big run last week... My short-term indicators have me in cash and I will stay there maybe all week, unless we get some decent retracement from last week’s rally.

LT investors seem to be willing to take more risk and continue to add shares. They are now starting to look forward 6 months in the stock market and like what they are seeing. We shall see! This mess is far from over and the crooks can still move this market around on low volume and will continue to do so. They could try and shake out the Weak Bulls next weak. Shake out the little Bulls, retail investors, Joe Six-Pack, Us… However, with the retail Bears adding shorts to ever rally it's just more fuel for the Bulls.

I expect to see more failed rallies before this mess is over. Failed rallies are buying op’s for dip buyers, because they usually result in sell-offs.

Good trading/investing to you whatever you decide. The pump monkeys on both sides will be out next week trying to sell you a bill of goods. Some will want you to be in cash, some short, others buy... I have no idea what the stock market will do in the short-term, but I'm playing from the long side in my LT positions. Bob and Henry both are still on buy signals.

Again, short-term is a different game!


100% G Fund and looking to buy again soon!


Squalebear,

Hope you don't mind that I stopped by to shoot the Bull and some Bear...

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear, my apologies, this is your thread. My opinion could be completely off base.

Your opinions are not only appreciated, but demanded. Otherwise, I'll
keep writing questions and start answering my own questions with the
wrong answer. Did I just say that ? Yup, I did ! See what I mean ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear, Hope you don't mind that I stopped by to shoot the Bull and some Bear...

Robo, Anidoc holds your opinion in high regard and has referred your
threads as a great source of knowledge. You are always welcome to
shoot the "Bear", but leave the Bull alone. He's not strong as of late
and were trying to motivate him. Come back as often as you like. We
enjoy your insight. (And Believe Me) We'll take full advantage of you !
:nuts:

 

[Guest2]

CLOSING PRICE YTD PERCENT(%) DIFFERENCES

SPX = -5.31% C-FUND = -4.71%

WITH CONCERNS TO THE S&P500:
The differences do not swing very much to notice.
The C-Fund will continue to reflect daily return %'s.

DWCPF = -5.47% S-FUND = -4.80%

WITH CONCERNS TO THE S - FUND:
Will the "Right Column" go downward to meet the left ?
Will the "Left Column" go up to meet the right ?

EFA = -4.06% I-FUND = -4.20%

WITH CONCERNS TO THE OSM:
Both are within established goals. Flip a coin !

AGG =+0.80% F-FUND =+1.51%

WITH CONCERNS TO THE BOND FUND:
Boy, Their's a huge Overpayment YTD within the F-Fund.
Even on "unchanged days" in the AGG, The F-Fund Gets
hit. Even on "strong + days" in the AGG, The F-Fund might
underperform. I wish I had less $$$ in the F-Fund and more
$$$ in the AGG (IF) some chartist's are proven correct and
Bonds head upward. :worried:

I'll try to be back in the morning.
Good Luck to all of us today !

 

[Guest2]

One thing I forgot to mention concerning the below entry.
The YTD %'s represent the YTD %'s OFF THEIR HIGHEST CLOSING PRICES.
:worried::blink:

 

[Guest2]

BEST PRICE GUESS:

C = 15.76 or -0.13% -.02 TSP CENTS
S = 18.80 or -0.21% -.04 TSP CENTS (could be 18.81)
F = 12.10 or -0.08% -.01 TSP CENTS (could be 12.11)
I = 23.88 - 23.92 (fv estimated at +.02 included)

JUST FOR FUN FOLKS, THESE ARE NOT ACTUAL FIGURES. :worried:

 

[Steadygain]

Wow - sorry my friend - but as more and more join the MB it's hard to keep up.

I don't remember reading your thread before but

TOP RETURN FOR 3/08 is quite an achievement

Congratulations !! Always nice to have a Pro onboard.

 

[Guest2]

Wow - sorry my friend - but as more and more join the MB it's hard to keep up. I don't remember reading your
thread before but
TOP RETURN FOR 3/08 is quite an achievement
Congratulations !! Always nice to have a Pro onboard.

Steadygain, Thank you for the compliment. Your charm, writings and
wit are known throughout this wonderful resource. I found your insight,
concerning me being a "Pro", nothing short of amazing ! Yes my friend,
I am a Professional. However, I am a professional at stealing hard work
that others (such as yourself) have been willing to shared on this MB.
March was indeed a good month for me. However, I'm paying the price
in April for my "lack of vision" (Darth) and failing to "kneel to Zod" (Zod)
Oooops, too many movie referances.

I'm certainly glad you found the time to stop by and share your thoughts
I venture to your thread often and invite you to do the same. Again, Thx

 

[Guest2]

BEST PRICE GUESS: JUST FOR FUN FOLKS, THESE ARE NOT ACTUAL FIGURES.

Well, What can I say. My disclaimer says it all.

I'm finding the F-Fund hard to figure out (as others are). Where the TSP
found a +.04 gain in the Bond Fund today is confusing. I need to study
this fund a little deeper.

The I-Fund turned out a FV +.02 differential with no additional gain or
lose. This drove the dificit from single digits, to a high double digit deficit
of +0.19 tsp cents YTD. That is where it stood last week on Wednesday,
before jumping to it's week high deficit of +0.23 tsp cents. On Friday, the
deficit was driven down to +0.03 tsp cent (goal). Remember, when the
deficit reaches this level or higher, up days result in greater gains then
the EFA. On down days, it tends to give out smaller loses then the EFA,
while the deficit seeks to find that aspired single digit difference.
HAVE I LOST YOU YET ?

The C & S Funds stayed consistant with it's normal "give or take a penny" returns.

Now, what about TUESDAY - APRIL 22, 2008 ?
The Nasdaq & S&P Futures are down almost -.50% at this time 12:18am
Japan is down approximately -1.00% during open trading this morning.
The Dow futures are down -.25% at this moment. (means nothing).

As I eluded to in my previous thread entry (below), it's time to go steal
some research from those who have some insight on todays market.
I'll be around :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

For those of you who have inquired about my "make believe"(unrestricted)
portfolio vs. my "real deal" (snail mail penalized) porfolio, here's an update;

(Unrestricted) +9.57 % YTD
( Restricted..) +5.25 % YTD

Differential = -4.32 % YTD or -$5583.37 (They ows me):worried: